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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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DrForester

Kills Photobucket
RustyNails said:
Can IRS finish the damn audit any time soon?
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The IRS thing is nothing, and if the news media cared to do their job they would just ask for him to release his taxes from previous years he wasn't under audit (or audit has been completed), but the media has shown they are totally fine with Trump not releasing his taxes and saying anything he wants without being asked to prove it.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
DontBeThatGuy said:
It may be polarized, but Trump is still the most disliked candidate ever, and Obama favorables are very good right now. His campaigning would be a bit different, getting much more coverage, and his constant attacks on Trump would just be on another level, driving up the possibility that Trump becoming even more unhinged than he has been. It would be so easy for him to point out how terrible that man is, while using that whole bitherism angle in such a way that it would resonate deeper than it ever could when Hillary talks about it. Obama would get more Hispanic voters than he ever did before.

Obama would destroy him.
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This is behind by a lot somehow, but I still disagree. For one, Hillary has always had better Hispanic support than Obama. That was one of her best demographics in '08 and '16. And favorability doesn't mean that much. Bernie's numbers were MUCH higher in that respect than Clinton's, as were Kasich's, and neither of them were close to winning their contests. People don't always vote for who they like, and they don't always abstain when they hate someone.
 
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Slizeezyc

Member
I was worried we wouldn't reach peak DIABLOS, and we might not be there yet, but liberals always come through in this department. If we get an Obama-like flop at the first debate I'm going to have to get my lotion out before reading this thread.
 
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DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Darkgran said:
To everyone that is panicking..

Show me the path Trump has to the Presidency.
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Polls continue to tighten. Media continues to give Trump a pass on everything and not press him on anything. Trump's one liners and zingers become the headline coming out of the debates rather than any substance.


I'm not going to be comfortable about this until November 9. Media is currently doing everything it can to get Trump Elected.
 
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Darkgran

Member
DrForester said:
Polls continue to tighten. Media continues to give Trump a pass on everything and not press him on anything. Trump's one liners and zingers become the headline coming out of the debates rather than any substance.


I'm not going to be comfortable about this until November 9. Media is currently doing everything it can to get Trump Elected.
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I absolutely agree on this 100%. The media is terrible right now.

I still don't see a path...
 
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NeoXChaos

Member
Slizeezyc said:
I was worried we wouldn't reach peak DIABLOS, and we might not be there yet, but liberals always come through in this department. If we get an Obama-like flop at the first debate I'm going to have to get my lotion out before reading this thread.
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If we get an Obama like flop in the first debate..............well let's say some posters will be Diablosing like we've never seen lol.
 
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Crayons

Banned
In what universe will Trump beat Clinton in the debate? Because it's certainly not this one. Maybe that's the universe where Nelson Mandela died in prison.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
Fenderputty said:
It will probably make Diablos more paranoid.
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Probably.. And the steelers would be shit.. So he wouldn't have that to occupy him.

Oh man.. That almost makes me want to keep it illegal. Shit..

Ignatz Mouse said:
We agree on this at least.

Regarding MSU, I went to U-M and we always thought it was cute that MSU thought they had a rivalry with us. We all knew our Rival was OSU.

But we all hated Notre Dame.
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Just so there's no debate.. Notre Dame and their development/history is entirely your fault. We are clear on that right?

Fenderputty said:
Dabo Swinney is in the bucket of deplorables.
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What did he do? I didn't see anything.
 
N

nature boy

Member
DrForester said:
The IRS thing is nothing, and if the news media cared to do their job they would just ask for him to release his taxes from previous years he wasn't under audit (or audit has been completed), but the media has shown they are totally fine with Trump not releasing his taxes and saying anything he wants without being asked to prove it.
Click to expand...

They already did ask him about returns already audited, he says they're "linked".

Unless he shows the IRS letter - which he hasn't - he's lying about the audit.

Crayons said:
In what universe will Trump beat Clinton in the debate? Because it's certainly not this one. Maybe that's the universe where Nelson Mandela died in prison.
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Huh? Trump's going to win the debate.

Grading on a curve.
 
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NeoXChaos

Member
Crayons said:
In what universe will Trump beat Clinton in the debate? Because it's certainly not this one. Maybe that's the universe where Nelson Mandela died in prison.
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all trump has to do is look presidential and non-confrontational and the media will call it a win. He's gonna pull a Romney I fear.

EDIT: Still likely and expect Hillary to mop the floor with him.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Crayons said:
Stay calm, young grasshoppas. Clinton is winning and will still win. Trump has no chance.
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People lean into the freak out bc collective shitshows can be fun, but I think most people here are fairly confident she'll win or that she is in good shape - that said, he DOES have a chance, and that it doesnt help to think he doesn't
 
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hipsterpants

Member
honestly at this point this thread is basically unreadable. I'm interested in politics and am concerned about the trend towards Trump but holy shit.
 
N

Nafai1123

Banned
Crayons said:
In what universe will Trump beat Clinton in the debate? Because it's certainly not this one. Maybe that's the universe where Nelson Mandela died in prison.
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The universe in which the media uses false equivalencies.

Edit: I don't actually think he stands a chance either.
 
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RustyNails

Member
There's positively no way Trump beats Hillary in the debate. He has to rely on another coughing episode or fainting or whatever and the chance of that happening are slim because her pneumonia will be gone by then. And she'll be plenty hydrated, rested and coked up to be fully alert. It's Trump's doom. The real question is what Trump will do after the debate to take Hillary's good press away.
 
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Black Mamba

Member
NeoXChaos said:
how can you say with all the tightening polls the past few weeks?
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Still up 4 in the HuffPo Aggregate. Same as Obama vs Romney in 2012 on this date.

trump's national momentum has stalled. Puts the race around 4 points...which seems to make sense when you consider 4 years ago.

The convention bounce was partially an actual bounce due to response rates! The media has helped Trump lately, but she's clearly still up comfortably.

Her leads in Pa, Co, and Va are comfortable. Fla and Ohio and Nv matter less to the actual win. She's comfortably up. I don't care what the media or bedwetters think.

Nothing has shown me he has a real path, yet. The numbers don't show it. Why should I freak out?
 
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nature boy

Member
Re: Today's CNN polls
Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch 2h2 hours ago
2: General problem with using a cut-off style likely voter model is you assume 0% of unlikely voters vote and 100% of likely voters vote

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch 2h2 hours ago
3: Generally accepted in the polling world that cut-off models are bad. Certainly won't earn you any cred at an AAPOR meeting.

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch 2h2 hours ago
You will save yourself a lot of stress over the next 2 months if you accept that there will be volatility in the public polls.
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Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I don't blame the people at that Flint event for acting out. Imagine you're black and you not only have to watch the only African-American President ever to leave office and not know when you will ever see one again in your lifetime, but you also have to consider the sting of possibility that his replacement will be a proud bigot.
 
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DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Crayons said:
In what universe will Trump beat Clinton in the debate? Because it's certainly not this one. Maybe that's the universe where Nelson Mandela died in prison.
Click to expand...

Trump's one liners becomes the headline out the debates, not the substance. I think it's entirely possible Trump does terribly in the debate, but still comes out looking like the winner in the media. Media has shown that they want the Trump headlines. Debates won't be about what Hillary did. Good or bad, the Debate headlines will be about what Trump did.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
Well, thanks for reminding me how much I hate the media, guys. But I still don't think they'll be able to swing it to look like Trump did well
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
RustyNails said:
There are 3 groups: bedwetters, unskewers and cucumbers. I tend to fall in the middle one.
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Ehh, I always maintain there's a distinct difference between pointing out a poll's samples are bad, versus actually adjusting the results to suit what "should" be the sample.

None of us here say "since they under sampled young people, +2 Hillary" which is really the core of unskewing.
 
K

KyroLen

Neo Member
Oh, facebook why did I stop posting stuff on your site? Why do I not log in?

Oh yeah, it's because when I do go on I see people sharing ignorance like actually believing Hillary had a body double because she came out feeling better hours after stumbling, and also sharing shit stating that Obama has found a loophole to serve another term.

Jesus Christ, I just can't fathom the utter unintelligent morons that inhabit this country.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Darkgran said:
To everyone that is panicking..

Show me the path Trump has to the Presidency.
Click to expand...

This is the map on fivethirtyeight currently

uZcM4L1.png
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The odds are Clinton 51% and trump 48% in florida and Clinton 54% trump 46% in Nevada,

if Trump managed to win those two it would put him at 275 electoral votes.

I'm not saying its likely but if everything went his way its possible. Id say fivethirtyeight's current odds are accurate. About a 64% chance for clinton, 35% for trump.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Chezzymann said:
This is the map on fivethirtyeight currently



The odds are Clinton 51% and trump 48% in florida and Clinton 54% trump 46% in Nevada,

if Trump managed to win those two it would put him at 275 electoral votes.

I'm not saying its likely but if everything went his way its possible. Id say fivethirtyeight's current odds are accurate. About a 64% chance for clinton, 35% for trump.
Click to expand...

no that'd put him at 265
 
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