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[Deleted member 231381]

with respect, i get the feeling you're the last person itt who should be casting stones of revisionism

I have nothing to revise I'm immediately aware of, tetchy temper aside.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

God bless autocorrect.

(Mean Girls)

 

[Debirudog]

yeah, I would've thrown my lap top if I heard the speech.

 

[eBay Huckster]

sure, if we're not counting the "al gore would've invaded iraq with the same parameters" argument from a couple weeks ago

 

[thebloo]

the campaign has a shit ton of money. Who honestly cares if they spend it on SC?

Yeah, I don't get it. It's not detracting from anything and as far as it's covered it gives a positive vibe of a confident campaign.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

sure, if we're not counting the "al gore would've invaded iraq with the same parameters" argument from a couple weeks ago

I stand by that.

: )

EDIT: Actually, no, I didn't say same parameters. I said very different parameters. But I think it is more likely than not America would have gone to war with Iraq regardless.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

This is gonna blow up. I thought he'd be saying it in a jokey manner. This sounded like the ramblings of a hateful man angry that he had to eat shit for 30 seconds this morning at that birthed statement.

I feel like I've heard this line of thinking from the right-wing about Obama before, whenever gun regulation comes up.

 

[The Technomancer]

This is the second time he's implied approval of direct violence against Clinton. This needs to go nuclear

 

[excelsiorlef]

No, but let's do the timewarp again: it's 2014, and I tell you "an independent Jewish socialist over the age of 70 from Vermont is going to run in the Democrat primary against Clinton. What percentage of the vote do you think he'll get?"; if you try and tell me now you wouldn't have said "5%, tops", you're lying. Instead he took 40%.

If at the same time, I told you that her presidential opponent was going to be someone with heavy neo-Nazi associations who would talk about the size of his penis on a national debate stage and went bankrupt four times, and asked you how much she'd win by, you'd probably have said Goldwater margins. Instead, she's barely outpacing him.

When you step away from these races for a moment, and examine them for what they are, Clinton is doing incredibly poorly. Thankfully the quality of her opposition means that is still most likely going to end in a win.

Had Biden ran he'd have knocked Sanders out faster than a speeding locomotive.

Sanders benefited from being the not Clinton candidate because he was the only credible oposition.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

No one would have invaded Iraq except W. I'm sure Gore or some other dude would have bombed Iraq, but the invasion was caused by W's desire for vengeance.

This is the second time he's implied approval of direct violence against Clinton. This needs to go nuclear

No one cares about threats of violence against democracy, America is tired of liberalism as a concept.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I do wonder what will happen to middle America. Even in the incredibly unlikely event Clinton loses, demographically that will probably be their last ever victory. What does our brave new world offer them?

 

[Crisco]

Chris Matthews has his issues, but he's about the only national reporter to accurately frame the birther movement.

 

[Teggy]

We're talking about the primaries? Not the general, not the general, not the general. The primaries?

Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

Lance Armstrong is now going to admit guilt—can that be possible after many years of denying? Just go away Lance.

 

[HylianTom]

What a wacky damn day. Hillary's people were everywhere. I tend to think when her surrogates are spread out, that today is what much of October will look like.

I can't wait for the debates. Hillary vs Off-Script Trump. *whoooooo*

 

[damisa]

I do wonder what will happen to middle America. Even in the incredibly unlikely event Clinton loses, demographically that will probably be their last ever victory. What does our brave new world offer them?

Republicans are still dominating state governments and midterm elections. They can stay relevant for a long time

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I do wonder what will happen to middle America. Even in the incredibly unlikely event Clinton loses, demographically that will probably be their last ever victory. What does our brave new world offer them?

This is only true if millions of people from Iran, India, and China become American citizens in the next few years, total amnesty is passed, Latinos become as politically active as black people, and Latinos never vote for the GOP again because of Trump.

Even if America ends up D+4.. Uhh, you can still lose a D+4 election.

 

[BigAl1992]

What a wacky damn day. Hillary's people were everywhere. I tend to think when her surrogates are spread out, that today is what much of October will look like.

Seems like it. After doing nothing for August and much of September, perhaps that bout of pneumonia Clinton might have served as a real wake up call to the Democrats to pull their finger out and get to work. If they want to win, they need to get into gear now and stop acting like this win is in the bag already.

 

[teruterubozu]

I do wonder what will happen to middle America. Even in the incredibly unlikely event Clinton loses, demographically that will probably be their last ever victory. What does our brave new world offer them?

People said this when Obama won, then continued to ignore midterm elections.

 

[BlastProcessing]

With respect, I think this is some pretty heavy revisionism. I can dig up PoliGAF peeps from before the primaries even began who were absolutely and completely confident that Sanders would only win a single primary. The average PoliGAF guess in December was two primaries (heck, I guessed eleven and was too low!). You cannot seriously be telling me that you think in 2014 you'd have pegged a candidate with Sanders' background and stances to do as well as he did. That's some bullshit.

Please note: I'm not reliving the primaries or saying 'Sanders should have won' or yadda yadda yadda. I'm just pointing out that it's very difficult for me to have confidence that the Clinton campaign is some mastermind genius operation when historically she's done far less well than she should have done against apparently weak opponents. Clinton spending money in South Carolina is bullshit, and she's not earned the level of faith for me to peg it down to some genius cunning. It's a misstep.

Let's let the Primary stuff drop.

Opening a SC office is absolutely a good idea no matter what the state of the race is. If her internal numbers still have them confident, it's a good state to shift resources to because much of the state shares media markets with NC and GA. So the work she has already done in NC in say, Charlotte will help her. Same with Augusta GA. Regionally it makes perfect sense.

Conversely, if Clinton's internal numbers are troubling SC would provide a new path to 270 for her. If Trump is making his gains based on middle class whites, states like Iowa, Ohio, and New Hampshire might slip away. Courting a state with shifting demographics like SC might actually be a more efficient path to 270 in that case.

Clinton's campaign is very data driven. In the primaries they used a metric of "Dollar per flippable delegate". It took into account things like Media Market prices and demographics. It led them to spend money in some novel ways.

If that all sounds simple enough, it’s not. Every TV market reaches a different number of voters in a different number of districts, with her support in each a different estimated distance from a delegate threshold. Calculating where dollars would go furthest, per delegate, was an incredible statistical undertaking that was months in the making.

In the end, whatever the algorithms spat out, the campaign pretty much bought. “We relied almost entirely on them,” Mook said.

So in states that Clinton won lopsidedly, Kriegel’s algorithm still had them spending big.

The breakdown of the buy in Texas, powered by Kriegel’s modeling, shows how Clinton’s TV ads budget hunted for delegates, not votes. Texas is the rare state that used state legislative districts to award delegates, and Clinton spent $1.2 million on broadcast and cable ads even as she won the state by 32 percentage points. Sanders spent $0. She spent more on ads in tiny Brownsville ($127,000) and Waco ($142,000), ranked as the 86th and 87th largest media markets in the country, as she did in Houston ($105,000), the 10th largest, according to ad data provided by a media tracker.

It paid off: In Texas alone, Clinton netted 72 delegates more than Sanders — a margin that more than offset all the Sanders’ primary and caucus wins through March 1.

I can see how a state like SC could fit into a similarly data driven GE plan.

 

[Sciz]

(Mean Girls)

There was a voice in the back of my mind telling me that was probably a reference to something, but I didn't bother googling it like a chump. Guess I have a movie to watch now, though.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think you're underestimating the scale of the challenge facing the Republican party. If the Democrats maintain their current voting figures among minorities and minority turn-out doesn't drop to 2004 levels or lower, then in 2020 and 2024 a Republican would need to have Reagan-level white turn-out and victory margins (so: strongly implausible) and by 2028 the election would be de facto not winnable. That's just maths. I don't think rust America has many opportunities to win left. The Republicans certainly do, but only by changing as a party such that they don't represent the same bloc as they do now.

 

[teiresias]

Haha, oh god, I hope the press links this comment back to his "second amendment people" comment from earlier in the campaign and asks any GOP elected official that tried to explain that one away how the reconcile that with this latest one.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Chris Matthews has his issues, but he's about the only national reporter to accurately frame the birther movement.

He really did single handedly make it an issue again with his interview of Giuliani last week. Other reporters followed his lead.

I think you're underestimating the scale of the challenge facing the Republican party. If the Democrats maintain their current voting figures among minorities and minority turn-out doesn't drop to 2004 levels or lower, then in 2020 and 2024 a Republican would need to have Reagan-level white turn-out and victory margins (so: strongly implausible) and by 2028 the election would be de facto not winnable. That's just maths. I don't think rust America has many opportunities to win left. The Republicans certainly do, but only by changing as a party such that they don't represent the same bloc as they do now.

It's even worse that that. Romney actually outperformed Reagan with whites and still lost badly. This is why putting money in SC makes sense.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I do wonder what will happen to middle America. Even in the incredibly unlikely event Clinton loses, demographically that will probably be their last ever victory. What does our brave new world offer them?

I stand by that.

: )

EDIT: Actually, no, I didn't say same parameters. I said very different parameters. But I think it is more likely than not America would have gone to war with Iraq regardless.

Not that I don't appreciate your contributions but these two posts show a unfamiliarity with US politics and culture. Serious question and not meant to be condescending (I mean I comment on Euro politics having only lived there for 1 year), but have you lived or visited the US Crab, besides New York or LA?

I've seen these arguments made on the internet before but never in real live by people who have lived here.

I think you're underestimating the scale of the challenge facing the Republican party. If the Democrats maintain their current voting figures among minorities and minority turn-out doesn't drop to 2004 levels or lower, then in 2020 and 2024 a Republican would need to have Reagan-level white turn-out and victory margins (so: strongly implausible) and by 2028 the election would be de facto not winnable. That's just maths. I don't think rust America has many opportunities to win left. The Republicans certainly do, but only by changing as a party such that they don't represent the same bloc as they do now.

This is only true if they don't improve with minorities, they will. We have an pretty much an avowed racist. This is the lowest they'll go and they still have a shot!

 

[Revolver]

I could listen to Chris and Joy talk about the birther topic for ages. They both get so passionate and make valid points.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I think you're underestimating the scale of the challenge facing the Republican party. If the Democrats maintain their current voting figures among minorities and minority turn-out doesn't drop to 2004 levels or lower, then in 2020 and 2024 a Republican would need to have Reagan-level white turn-out and victory margins (so: strongly implausible) and by 2028 the election would be de facto not winnable. That's just maths. I don't think rust America has many opportunities to win left. The Republicans certainly do, but only by changing as a party such that they don't represent the same bloc as they do now.

Which means the Republican party pivots toward the center.

 

[Paches]

Joy Reid slaying.

 

[Tarkus]

I got this weird t shirt sale email just now

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I lived in Louisiana for a while around 2007-8. I've never actually been to New York City, although I've passed through New York state on the way to Cambridge, nor to LA and never been to California at that. Outside of Lousiana, I probably spent the most time in Florida, although that's not living there, that's just taking the opportunity to visit an interesting nearby state that was less expensive than heading north.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Of all the dumb and pointless things to pundit about--and boy, are there a lot--nothing is dumber and more pointless than guessing at how a non-candidate would perform compared to an actual candidate. Wait, the only thing dumber than that is doing it in the middle of a campaign.

Being a candidate changes the candidate, and the candidates change each other's campaigns. You can't guess how non-candidate Sanders would do against candidate Trump running against candidate Clinton. There are too many variables. In fucking September, no less.

If Clinton or Trump loses by 20 points or more, you can slot someone else in and say they would do better because it's almost impossible to do worse. Other than that, whogivesashit.gif

 

[RustyNails]

Let this blow up. Please let this blow up

I kinda dont want it to blow up, because Media will forget the birther shitfest of this morning.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Which means the Republican party pivots toward the center.

I agree, which was sort of my point: that implies that rust America is dead as a political force, or at least severely diminished. It's interesting and perhaps saddening to think what that means for them, though I can't say I'm sad to see the back of the ideology associated with them.

 

[Maxim726X]

lol

Okay- That's kinda funny.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

lol

anyone want to tell him how that ends

 

[Revolver]

Joy Reid slaying.

She really is. When she said the part about making Obama kneel and show his papers I said daammn.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Joy Reid is awesome.

 

[BlastProcessing]

For those keeping score at home:

Daniel Dale ‏@ddale8 7m7 minutes ago
Donald Trump just did a speech in Miami. He said eight false things.

 

[Loudninja]

Some how he thinks making up false stats will help him with minorities.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Edward-Isaac DovereVerified account
‏@IsaacDovere
How Trump capitalized on Clinton's worst weekend:
-aides saying he won't release taxes
-Dr. Oz BS
-birtherism whatever
-assassination hint

.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Some how he thinks making up false stats will help him with minorities.

He is getting these numbers from Alt-Right sources. He knows who he is really talking to.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I agree, which was sort of my point: that implies that rust America is dead as a political force, or at least severely diminished. It's interesting and perhaps saddening to think what that means for them, though I can't say I'm sad to see the back of the ideology associated with them.

This is wrong in two important ways. One, if they're a minority now, that means they just have to form a coalition with another voting bloc, so they've still kept a huge amount of leverage. For instance, just because African-Americans can't form a voting bloc all on their own doesn't mean they're not hugely influential.

Two, the data doesn't support the idea that Rust-America, as you call it, even supports the Republican Party right now. I mean, what exactly is Rust-America? Do you mean blue collar workers? Clinton is winning 47-45 among people earning between 30,000 and 75,000, according to Pew. Under that, she's winning a whopping 65%. Do you mean people who literally work in mining? There aren't a lot of jobs like that left. Poor people also represent a very small portion of Republican voters in general. In 2012, according to 538, about 30% of GOP voters had incomes less than 50k.

If you mean white AND working class, then I guess all I can say is either join the rest of the working class voters, or they can keep voting based on racial politics. It's their choice.

 

[DrForester]

For those keeping score at home:

Daniel Dale ‏@ddale8 7m7 minutes ago
Donald Trump just did a speech in Miami. He said eight false things.

If only there was some entity that could get this info to the public at large. Maybe a nightly TV program that informed people about what is going on....

 

[Loudninja]

He is getting these numbers from Alt-Right sources. He knows who he is really talking to.

Its so pointless.

 

[HylianTom]

For what it's worth, #birtherism has been trending on Twitter all day long. Pretty good staying power.

 

[Makai]

Donald Trump tricked the entire political media into showing him recieve the endorsement of several retired admirals and generals at the opening event for his new hotel in Washington D.C. on Friday in the 'Presidential Ballroom' of his new Washington D.C. hotel. Promising a statement about the "birther" issue, Trump instead delivered a lengthy endorsement by several military flag officers and 14 Medal of Honor recipients.

lol. I missed prankster Trump.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Hype up press conference revealing stance on President's birthplace, then delay while you're huddled in a room with advisors trying to figure out WTF to say.



1.) where was Kellyanne

2.) how did that many people fail to realize what a terrible idea this whole thing was? Of all the things he needed a planned statement for, they let that one go off-the-cuff?

This is giving the lie to my comments yesterday about leaks and better strategy.

 

[nature boy]

Plouffe before those remarks were made:

David Plouffe ‏@davidplouffe 3h3 hours ago
Trump hurt himself today by doing something he was forced into by the pros. Toxic combo for this nutjob. Watch out for the next eruption.

 

[Crisco]

Plouffe before those remarks were made:

I had that exact feeling watching the video, it was almost like a "fuck the PC police" moment.

 

[Diablos]

But to return more precisely to the topic: I think spending money in SC is just dumb. It doesn't help Clinton, the Democrats have no hope of taking the Senate seat there, there is not a single competitive House seat there, and by the time South Carolina ends up blue, so many other states will have flipped before it nobody will care. I'm pretty confident in calling that a terrible idea, and I also feel pretty confident in saying that Clinton does not have an inspiring track record in prior campaigns to assuage my doubts via behind-the-scenes knowledge.

I tend to agree here. She should be doubling down in OH and FL.

 

[Tamanon]

Plouffe should just get a Youtube show where he goes off on the election and bedwetters for 30 minutes every week. Love him on Keeping it 1600 when he's guesting.