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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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Maxim726X

Member
I actually don't think this is true. Ask Rick Lazio if being an asshole helped him against Hillary. People approach Presidential debates in a very unique way. This is an audition for one of the most important jobs in the entire world. Bluster is only going to get you so far. We can point to a million different interviews where Trump has been a complete and total mess. Polling shows us people don't think he has the knowledge and experience to be President. Him ranting and raving for 90 minutes isn't going to help that. And, ya, there's also a sexist component too. People don't like it when men act like dicks to women. I think that will be a real thread in the debates.

He has no grasp of policy and has decided not to even bother trying to git gud before the debates. He will be tripped up by something in them because you can't bullshit your way through a one v one debate.

People don't like when men bully women. We actually got a slight taste of that backlash in the primaries when Trump tried going after Fiorina.

I hope you guys are right, but clearly a significant portion of the American public respond to being a douche bag on national television in a positive way... We've never really seen anyone like him on the national stage. We'll have to see what happens.

I mean, it's not as if he's getting buried. He's still getting ~42% of the national vote right now despite the fact that he's running one of the worst campaigns in the history of the country.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Ssh don't ruin this for him.

"Ruin this" for me? Give me a freaking break. Who even are you? Just because I'm not in the "OH MAN HILLARY QUEEN IT IS ALL WRAPPED UP" phase like most of GAF doesn't mean I'm not fairly certain Hillary wins. I like to be reasonable, not extreme.

As nature boy said, he's closer in Michigan than Wisconsin. It isn't a crazy thing to try and turn people around. There is a HIGH Tea Party population in that state, and Hillary lost it in the primaries. He won't win it this year, but he absolutely needs a couple swing states to win the election so he might as well try. Makes more sense than focusing on red states.
 

studyguy

Member
Oh good grief, CJ Pearson is back and now he is supporting Trump.

http://time.com/4470565/teens-for-trump/?xid=tcoshare

Wonder how much he's gotten since July?

The kid who went from being a Republican to being a socialist (Bernie Sanders supporting) Democrat is now a Republican again, and he is back for money. CJ Pearson, the 12-year-old (now 13-year-old) former “conservative wiz kid,” who embarrassed conservatives after he “denounced conservatism” on CNN, is now scamming Trump supporters. This comes after he completely bashed the presidential candidate on MTV news, and called Trump voters “stupid.”

Pearson wrote a column for the entertainment network on December 16, 2015, titled, “I’M 13 AND DONALD TRUMP BECOMING PRESIDENT SCARES THE CRAP OUT OF ME.”

“I laugh at a lot of things, ” Pearson wrote on MTV.com. “I laugh at cute puppies chasing their tails; furry cats falling down stairs. Man, I even laugh at the ceiling sometimes (yes, I’m honestly that weird). Six months ago, I used to laugh at Donald Trump. However, I’ve stopped laughing. This is because in the past few weeks, this originally hilarious joke has taken a turn for the worse. It’s taken a turn towards fear-mongering. A turn towards hate. And a turn towards blanket racism and blatant Islamophobia. Donald, the joke is over. I’m not laughing anymore and the American people aren’t laughing anymore.“
Shame he's only 14, bet the Don could really use his vote to get out of that 0% support hole.
 

Maxim726X

Member
"Ruin this" for me? Give me a freaking break. Who even are you? Just because I'm not in the "OH MAN HILLARY QUEEN IT IS ALL WRAPPED UP" phase like most of GAF doesn't mean I'm not fairly certain Hillary wins. I like to be reasonable, not extreme.

As nature boy said, he's closer in Michigan than Wisconsin. It isn't a crazy thing to try and turn people around. There is a HIGH Tea Party population in that state, and Hillary lost it in the primaries. He won't win it this year, but he absolutely needs a couple swing states to win the election so he might as well try. Makes more sense than focusing on red states.

In the same boat- There is good reason to believe that she's got this in the bag, but it's not wrapped up just yet.

Though it would seem to me that he could better spend his time elsewhere, it's not the worst decision in the world.
 
Reid Wilson ‏@PoliticsReid 10m10 minutes ago
Breaking: After DSCC postpones OH SEN ad buy, Senate Majority PAC follows suit, will delay their ads until 9/20

Yep, Ohio Senate seat def a lost cause.

Portman's got this.

i dont know how it works with Pacs but i guess its worth shifting the money elsewhere
 

TheCrow

Member
"Ruin this" for me? Give me a freaking break. Who even are you? Just because I'm not in the "OH MAN HILLARY QUEEN IT IS ALL WRAPPED UP" phase like most of GAF doesn't mean I'm not fairly certain Hillary wins. I like to be reasonable, not extreme.

As nature boy said, he's closer in Michigan than Wisconsin. It isn't a crazy thing to try and turn people around. There is a HIGH Tea Party population in that state, and Hillary lost it in the primaries. He won't win it this year, but he absolutely needs a couple swing states to win the election so he might as well try. Makes more sense than focusing on red states.

Wow, you sure got a lot out of that single sentence. You must be a mind reader. My issue was with you cherry picking polls which isn't exactly reasonable. But then again, who really am I?

Edit: In case you're serous. My name is Oscar and I currently live in Chicago. Um... Parent's immigrated from Mexico and Guatemala and I was the first one to graduate college. That was nice. Oh and I love DOTA!
 

Tarkus

Member
I played the beta for a bit. Didn't really enjoy it at all.
I can see how people wouldn't like it. It's much harder than a Souls game and the mechanics and story are even more obscure. I really like it though, day one for me.
Haven't had much time to play the beta but I was digging the alpha back when that came out. I'll probably pick it up whenever it comes out.
I love that you can switch between 1080p/30 and 720p/60. I go for 60fps. It doesn't look much different in terms of resolution to me.
TarkusRubioBot, I loved nioh alpha. Does beta expire? When?
KevCommunityBankLoanOfficer, it expires September 6th.
Oh shit I need to download that. When does that end?
^
 
Also, the fact that Hillary lost the MI primary is not indicative of her chances there in November. I feel like losing a state in the primary is only damaging if you didn't fight for the state and had no infrastructure in place.

Trump's not trying to expand the map because he's doing well. He's throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks somewhere. I'm 100% sure Hillary's team has been polling "marginal" states constantly, even if those results aren't public. Remember, her team kept beating the drum that she wasn't as far ahead in MI as people were saying during the primary.
 
"Ruin this" for me? Give me a freaking break. Who even are you? Just because I'm not in the "OH MAN HILLARY QUEEN IT IS ALL WRAPPED UP" phase like most of GAF doesn't mean I'm not fairly certain Hillary wins. I like to be reasonable, not extreme.

As nature boy said, he's closer in Michigan than Wisconsin. It isn't a crazy thing to try and turn people around. There is a HIGH Tea Party population in that state, and Hillary lost it in the primaries. He won't win it this year, but he absolutely needs a couple swing states to win the election so he might as well try. Makes more sense than focusing on red states.

It might make sense because he's not winning any swing state at the moment except maybe???? Iowa, but it's also extremely disingenuous to say he's "within 5 points" when you know that's cherry picking one poll.

If we're going to be annoying about "unskewing", let's also try to remember that one poll is not gospel.
 
I think cynical people think people like bullies and assholes but numbers rarely bear out that hypothesis

People like bullies and assholes... at a distance. Everybody enjoys a good heel, but not so much when they're in your living room insulting your dog.

I actually almost expect that Trump's polling is kind of inflated.
 
Donald Trump Jr. retweeted this, showing that he might be the most gullible person alive.

CrG5HdFW8AAqeXK.jpg
 
Donald Trump Jr.'s stupidity is comparable with Ryan Lochte's stupidity.

Which makes it impressive than Donald Trump Jr. is actually more cruel than stupid. Impressive to see that much cruelty and stupidity in one human being.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow, you sure got a lot out of that single sentence. You must be a mind reader. My issue was with you cherry picking polls which isn't exactly reasonable. But then again, who really am I?

Edit: In case you're serous. My name is Oscar and I currently live in Chicago. Um... Parent's immigrated from Mexico and Guatemala and I was the first one to graduate college. That was nice. Oh and I love DOTA!

It might make sense because he's not winning any swing state at the moment except maybe???? Iowa, but it's also extremely disingenuous to say he's "within 5 points" when you know that's cherry picking one poll.

If we're going to be annoying about "unskewing", let's also try to remember that one poll is not gospel.

To be fair, the latest two polls are Clinton +5 last week and Clinton +7 a week before that. That's not "cherry-picking" in my mind. Using a couple recent polls isn't the same as picking one poll that is outrageously an outlier.

And, again, all I said was it makes a little sense. That's it. I have no delusion that Trump will win Michigan this year, which is what Crow was ridiculously insinuating. Maybe Iowa would be a better choice, but this isn't insane for Trump to do.
 
Donald Trump Jr. retweeted this, showing that he might be the most gullible person alive.

CrG5HdFW8AAqeXK.jpg

Yup...there's virtually no way Trump and this family of idiots concede on election night. I can see it now. "A lot of people are saying that there are voter irregularities in multiple states like Ohio and Florida. It looks bad folks, really bad. I've been telling you this is rigged and now everyone agrees with me."
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yup...there's virtually no way Trump and this family of idiots concede on election night. I can see it now. "A lot of people are saying that there are voter irregularities in multiple states like Ohio and Florida. It looks bad folks, really bad. I've been telling you this is rigged and now everyone agrees with me."

If there's going to be one big failing of the press this cycle, it's going to be not pushing back against this shit hard enough. It literally needs to be smacked down and hard, anyone bringing it up needs to be shamed and run out of town.
 
Yep, Ohio Senate seat def a lost cause.

Portman's got this.

i dont know how it works with Pacs but i guess its worth shifting the money elsewhere

Concerning, if Ohio GOP lock up the Senate race, could they possibly help Trump?

It might make sense because he's not winning any swing state at the moment except maybe???? Iowa, but it's also extremely disingenuous to say he's "within 5 points" when you know that's cherry picking one poll.

If we're going to be annoying about "unskewing", let's also try to remember that one poll is not gospel.

He's done in every poll, he has to pick some states to compete. Michigan doesn't sound ridiculous, it's probably not 5 but it's under 10 points.
 
-It's widely known that Trump voters support building a wall on the border with
Mexico to keep undocumented immigrants out of the country. We find that 31%
of them also support building a wall along the Atlantic Ocean to keep Muslims
from entering the country from the Middle East.
I mean...that's not how this works. That's not how anything in the real world works.
We broke down how people were planning to vote for President this year based
on whether they had been to their local library in the last year or not, and found a
significant divide. Among voters who have been to the library, Clinton has a 17
point lead at 54/37. Among voters who haven't been to the library, Trump has a
14 point lead at 53/39.
635660234223205515846893613_giphy7.gif
 

Boke1879

Member
Yea I could never see Trump giving the phone call to concede. That's just not in his nature at all.

He's going to talk about some fuckery that night if he loses.
 
To be fair, the latest two polls are Clinton +5 last week and Clinton +7 a week before that. That's not "cherry-picking" in my mind. Using a couple recent polls isn't the same as picking one poll that is outrageously an outlier.

And, again, all I said was it makes a little sense. That's it. I have no delusion that Trump will win Michigan this year, which is what Crow was ridiculously insinuating. Maybe Iowa would be a better choice, but this isn't insane for Trump to do.

I mean if Trump wants to actually try to win this and not just limit his embarrassment he needs to win Michigan or PA, and Michigan may actually be closer at this point.
 
To be fair, the latest two polls are Clinton +5 last week and Clinton +7 a week before that. That's not "cherry-picking" in my mind. Using a couple recent polls isn't the same as picking one poll that is outrageously an outlier.

And, again, all I said was it makes a little sense. That's it. I have no delusion that Trump will win Michigan this year, which is what Crow was ridiculously insinuating. Maybe Iowa would be a better choice, but this isn't insane for Trump to do.

But you said within 5, not within 7. She's not only up by 5 in any aggregates of Michigan. That's not a fair assessment of the race. That's cherry picking one poll.
 

TheCrow

Member
To be fair, the latest two polls are Clinton +5 last week and Clinton +7 a week before that. That's not "cherry-picking" in my mind. Using a couple recent polls isn't the same as picking one poll that is outrageously an outlier.

And, again, all I said was it makes a little sense. That's it. I have no delusion that Trump will win Michigan this year, which is what Crow was ridiculously insinuating. Maybe Iowa would be a better choice, but this isn't insane for Trump to do.

If you want to say she's only up in Michigan by single digits that completely fine because that's true. And to be perfectly clear I wasn't insinuating shit. I just don't like it when people pick a single poll to describe any race. Especially when it's the first poll by that pollster so there's no way to see how it's been trending. Aggregates are pretty cool, but I'm done with this.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
What's a "library"?

It's a big box with books in it, only you can't keep the books inside it unlike those other big boxes with books in them where you trade green bits of paper for books. It's a big box with books in it that will give you books without asking for green bits of paper, but you have to give the books back later. If you don't give the books back later that makes you be in trouble and if you be in trouble then...well nothing happens, but you should still give the books back to the box so other people can read them.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
But you said within 5, not within 7. She's not only up by 5 in any aggregates of Michigan. That's not a fair assessment of the race. That's cherry picking one poll.

My mistake--I should have done the average of the 2 most recent polls.

She is up by 6. Huge difference. To be fair to me, I've worked every day but two this month and had only seen the most recent Michigan poll. I should have checked the other.

And Crow, I just re-read my initial response--it came off way snarkier than it was meant to. I was teaching class at the time and "Who even are you" was supposed to be "Who even are you calling out here?" I thought maybe you were confusing me with someone else based on your comment. My apologies.

I mean...that's not how this works. That's not how anything in the real world works.

The library thing isn't surprising in the least. These are the same people who think we don't need libraries to exist any more because of the Internet.
 
Clinton asks ‘Art of the Deal’ ghostwriter how to rattle Trump in debates

Hillary Clinton’s advisers are talking to Donald Trump’s ghostwriter of “The Art of the Deal,” seeking insights about Trump’s deepest insecurities as they devise strategies to needle and undermine him in four weeks at the first presidential debate, the most anticipated in recent political history.

Her team is also getting advice from psychology experts to help create a personality profile of Trump to gauge how he may respond to attacks and deal with a woman as his sole adversary on the debate stage.

As Clinton pores over this voluminous research with her debate team, most recently for several hours Friday, and her aides continue searching for someone who can rattle her as a Trump stand-in during mock debates, Trump is taking the opposite tack.

Clinton, a deeply competitive debater, wants to crush Trump on live television, but not with an avalanche of policy details; she is searching for ways to bait him into making blunders. Trump, a supremely self-confident communicator, wants viewers to see him as a truth-telling political outsider and trusts that he can box in Clinton on her ethics and honesty.

Trump’s certitude — “I know how to handle Hillary,” he said — reflects his belief that the debates will be won or lost not on policy points and mastery of details, which are Clinton’s strengths, but on the authenticity, boldness and leadership that the nominees demonstrate onstage.

In compiling research to help Clinton prepare, her advisers have cast a wide net. They contacted Tony Schwartz, the “Art of the Deal” co-author, to give them advice about Trump this summer — even though Schwartz’s 18-month immersion in Trump’s life and homes ended in the mid-1980s. But Clinton advisers said Schwartz and other writers who had observed Trump up close, as well as unnamed psychology experts they had spoken to, were critical to understanding how to get under Trump’s skin.
 
John Stoehr
‏@johnastoehr
Nearly 20 percent believe ACORN will steal the election for Clinton, according to new polling by @ppppolls. There is no ACORN.

When asked if they believed all food containing DNA should be labeled, 80% of Americans surveyed replied 'yes'.
 
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