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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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Joeytj

Banned
Alex BurnsVerified account
‏@alexburnsNYT Alex Burns Retweeted MULawPoll
Pretty consistent in state & national polls: Clinton ticks up & down in low/mid/high 40s, Trump stays pretty flat

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 11m11 minutes ago Washington, DC
Jamelle Bouie Retweeted Alex Burns
Yep. HRC's numbers seem to move between 43 & 48 depending on how people feel. Trump is stuck at 37 to 40.

Pretty much, after another email or Clinton Foundation non-story picks up steam, she drops in polls, but Trump doesn't pick up any extra support.

Leaners just get pissed off at Hillary and spite her in the polls for a while.
 
Probably is now as they try to figure out what the fuck a NeoGAF is.
1Yiv6DU.jpg


Hillary as she came across PD's fanfics
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Pretty much, after another email or Clinton Foundation non-story picks up steam, she drops in polls, but Trump doesn't pick up any extra support.

Leaners just get pissed off at Hillary and spite her in the polls for a while.

Pretty much. The numbers will solidify after the debates and there's more to cover. Right now Trump hasn't done anything too insane lately and there's not much going on, so we're getting Foundation stories.

1Yiv6DU.jpg


Hillary as she came across PD's fanfics

Oh snaps
 
• Mr. Trump is expected to land in Mexico City around 3 p.m. local time (one hour behind Eastern time). He will travel, with hisSecret Service detail to the presidential palace in two helicopters to avoid the frequent gridlock on the capital’s highways. (As a result, Mr. Trump will avoid roadside protestors of his visit.)

• The meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Peña Nieto will start by 4 p.m. local time and last for approximately 50 minutes. The Mexican president, who will be joined by his foreign minister is expected to speak English at the meeting

• Mr. Trump will focus on the positive at the meeting, seeing it as the start of a dialogue about shared economic interests and security interests. Mr. Rubin said he believed Mr. Trump would only briefly mention his intention to build a wall on the U.S-Mexico border and get Mexico to pay for its construction — a deeply offensive proposal to many Mexicans.

• Mr. Trump will depart Mexico City by 5:30 p.m. local time (6:30 p.m. Eastern) en route to Phoenix to deliver his immigration speech.
https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/us/politics/donald-trump-mexico.amp.html

Just for 50 minutes!!! What, you orange faced clown!
 
Hilldawg gonna mention us in her next speech when she uses us as a counter-point to toxic internet culture.

I really hope she drops her GAF name.

NO NO NO, WAIT--- in her next speech: "Donald Trump just shot himself in the foot. I don't know how much the rest of you know about American culture..."
 

remist

Member
Press conferences have been a customary part of presidential campaigns for good reason. It is a type of interaction with the press with which the campaign has the least control. Sit down interviews and the like often have ground rules and negotiations for access. It's an important test for the candidate and voters get a better less filtered view of thier responses to questions.

The fact that Hillary has gone 270+ days without a press conference is something that she should be criticized for. It is a move towards less and less transparency and access that voters need to make good decisions.
 

Ecotic

Member
Will Trump and Nieto have a joint press conference? I'd love to see fireworks if Nieto says Mexico will never pay for the wall during a reporter question.
 
Press conferences have been a customary part of presidential campaigns for good reason. It is a type of interaction with the press with which the campaign has the least control. Sit down interviews and the like often have ground rules and negotiations for access. It's an important test for the candidate and voters get a better less filtered view of thier responses to questions.

The fact that Hillary has gone 270+ days without a press conference is something that she should be criticized for. It is a move towards less and less transparency and access that voters need to make good decisions.

A national network interview doesn't really have ground rules or negotiations. The only points up for negotiation are location and length.


I wonder how much that 50 minutes will cost the american taxpayer.
 

Diablos

Member
Hmm, I don't like that. I also don't really know what would've caused the LV model to go from +15 to +3 in under a month when little has happened in August besides maybe Clinton's convention bounce subsiding.
Not sure but that's BAD. That's a huge drop. What the fuck.

The negative press must really be hurting Hillary.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The race is tightening. It is. Not a huge deal. Not Diablos-time, but it is tightening.

That may not mean a big deal for the presidential race at this point, but it definitely could be huge for the House and Senate.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I know that MotherJones.com profile of Trump supporters went around here a few times, but this photo is not getting the recognition it deserves.

TRUMPERS_C_960.jpg


This photo by Stacy Kranitz, deserves a Pulitzer. Look at it. Let it wash over you. Look at the pain, the embarrassment, the poverty, the laziness, the hypocrisy. Feel the judgmental gaze of the onlooker, hear the underfed and neglected mutts (and apparently dangerous enough to warrant three signs!) barking over the chirp of anonymous swarm of swamp bugs, smell the weeds, the dust, the stench of the trash, the rotting animal nest underneath that woodpile.

I don't know where you're from, but that could be anywhere in the country that has trees. That could be in a suburb of any town north or east of Dallas all the way up to Maine. I've been to that place, smoked weed with kids from that place, have family or family of family that lives in places like those. I hadn't considered it before, but maybe I should, and maybe you should: this Trump thing is not going away soon -- not after November, not after Hillary.

These are all symptoms of a much larger disease, of societal breakdown, of Anywheretown, USA community breakdown. Look at this photo, man. Look.
 

AniHawk

Member
i think the issue with hillary's numbers are that she hasn't really done much since the convention. there was the alt-right speech, and the outlining of the mental health agenda. trump's a loser, but there's only one rally for hillary's campaign scheduled through october and it's tim kaine.

and it seems she does better when there are more popular people stumping for her: biden, obama, sanders, bill clinton - are they going to campaign soon? it feels like august was a month of complacency for the clinton campaign.
 

Dierce

Member
I know, it's just funny that he can't even be bothered to spend a couple of hours there and try and make this look like it isn't a publicity stunt.

The problem is that we realize that it is a publicity stunt but the media wont report it as such. The average viewer might see it as a sign that turd is being respected and can handle reaching out to foreign leaders. It is disgraceful how he has not just gotten away with insults and spreading xenophobia but also for lying an incredible amount of times. The media generally doesn't call them out or even challenge his projections. He is the most insecure, cowardly and ignorant turd to have ever existed and I can't shake off the depressing realization that a large number of people in this country will vote for this depraved shit.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
This photo by Stacy Kranitz, deserves a Pulitzer. Look at it. Let it wash over you. Look at the pain, the embarrassment, the poverty, the laziness, the hypocrisy. Feel the judgmental gaze of the onlooker, hear the underfed and neglected mutts (and apparently dangerous enough to warrant three signs!) barking over the chirp of anonymous swarm of swamp bugs, smell the weeds, the dust, the stench of the trash, the rotting animal nest underneath that woodpile.

I don't know where you're from, but that could be anywhere in the country that has trees. That could be in a suburb of any town north or east of Dallas all the way up to Maine. I've been to that place, smoked weed with kids from that place, have family or family of family that lives in places like those. I hadn't considered it before, but maybe I should, and maybe you should: this Trump thing is not going away soon -- not after November, not after Hillary.

These are all symptoms of a much larger disease, of societal breakdown, of Anywheretown, USA community breakdown. Look at this photo, man. Look.

I do agree, this isn't going anywhere for a while. That's why this election needs to be a curbstomping, so we can at least show people that Trump's rhetoric is not OK. If there was any justice in the world he'd lose pretty much every state.
 
So Trump is going to meet with the President of Mexico and still mention that he wants Mexico to pay for his wall? How is that possibly a good idea?
 
I know that MotherJones.com profile of Trump supporters went around here a few times, but this photo is not getting the recognition it deserves.

TRUMPERS_C_960.jpg


This photo by Stacy Kranitz, deserves a Pulitzer. Look at it. Let it wash over you. Look at the pain, the embarrassment, the poverty, the laziness, the hypocrisy. Feel the judgmental gaze of the onlooker, hear the underfed and neglected mutts (and apparently dangerous enough to warrant three signs!) barking over the chirp of anonymous swarm of swamp bugs, smell the weeds, the dust, the stench of the trash, the rotting animal nest underneath that woodpile.

I don't know where you're from, but that could be anywhere in the country that has trees. That could be in a suburb of any town north or east of Dallas all the way up to Maine. I've been to that place, smoked weed with kids from that place, have family or family of family that lives in places like those. I hadn't considered it before, but maybe I should, and maybe you should: this Trump thing is not going away soon -- not after November, not after Hillary.

These are all symptoms of a much larger disease, of societal breakdown, of Anywheretown, USA community breakdown. Look at this photo, man. Look.

The data doesn't exactly support that claim.

WaPo said:
Economic distress and anxiety across working-class white America have become a widely discussed explanation for the success of Donald Trump. It seems to make sense. Trump's most fervent supporters tend to be white men without college degrees. This same group has suffered economically in our increasingly globalized world, as machines have replaced workers in factories and labor has shifted overseas. Trump has promised to curtail trade and other perceived threats to American workers, including immigrants.

Yet a major new analysis from Gallup, based on 87,000 interviews the polling company conducted over the past year, suggests this narrative is not complete. While there does seem to be a relationship between economic anxiety and Trump's appeal, the straightforward connection that many observers have assumed does not appear in the data.

According to this new analysis, those who view Trump favorably have not been disproportionately affected by foreign trade or immigration, compared with people with unfavorable views of the Republican presidential nominee. The results suggest that his supporters, on average, do not have lower incomes than other Americans, nor are they more likely to be unemployed.

What you are talking about is an element of Trump's coalition, but it's not the dominant force. The problem with reporting like the Mother Jones piece is that it's backwards. Reporters are going to places where they assume Trump's base is and looking for people to interview. Then we assume the ones they find are representative of the majority of his support.
 
I've defended Nate S here quite a bit but some of positions are just baffling. Like this:

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 4m4 minutes ago
Both this race and 2012 have spent a lot of time where the Democrat was about a 75/25 favorite, but the perception of them way different.

How can you look at these two charts and say that the campaigns are roughly the same probability?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
The data doesn't exactly support that claim.



What you are talking about is an element of Trump's coalition, but it's not the dominant force.

My point was not about the dominant part of Trump's coalition (of which I'm certainly aware, though I think the data overstates the case of suburban racists) but was instead pointing to the hypocrisy of THAT sign posted in THAT yard. And all of the things unsaid in between. I don't know, it just struck me is all.
 
Thatcher's part of the chart here...

CrNWN8jWAAAgVXK.jpg


Going up means inequality is getting more extreme, going right means that the poor are getting better off (which can happen with or without inequality increasing or decreasing).

Thatcher's part of the chart is a straight line upwards.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I've defended Nate S here quite a bit but some of positions are just baffling. Like this:



How can you look at these two charts and say that the campaigns are roughly the same probability?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

The crazy fluctuations in the race are what is driving the uncertainty in 2016. That's why the probabilities seem similar but at any given second it seems way different.
 
This photo by Stacy Kranitz, deserves a Pulitzer. Look at it. Let it wash over you. Look at the pain, the embarrassment, the poverty, the laziness, the hypocrisy. Feel the judgmental gaze of the onlooker, hear the underfed and neglected mutts (and apparently dangerous enough to warrant three signs!) barking over the chirp of anonymous swarm of swamp bugs, smell the weeds, the dust, the stench of the trash, the rotting animal nest underneath that woodpile.

I know it's unintentional, but this description comes off a little classist to me. Like, as a poor person by Mississippi standards, most of my family lived (or lives) in places that looked like that house. And it's not really laziness that leads to that appearance; hell, most people don't realize how nice it is to even afford a lawn mower (my family got our first one when I was in high school) or the time/energy to use it (my single mother worked 12 hour night shifts in a medical clinic an hour away, so until my brother and I were old enough to cut the grass, we wouldn't have had a maintained lawn even with a lawn mower).

This level of poverty still exists here, and I can vouch that I definitely felt "the judgemental gaze of the onlookers" a lot growing up.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Thatcher's part of the chart here...

CrNWN8jWAAAgVXK.jpg


Going up means inequality is getting more extreme, going right means that the poor are getting better off (which can happen with or without inequality increasing or decreasing).

Thatcher's part of the chart is a straight line upwards.

It's because that lane is not for turning
 

HylianTom

Banned
I know that MotherJones.com profile of Trump supporters went around here a few times, but this photo is not getting the recognition it deserves.

TRUMPERS_C_960.jpg


This photo by Stacy Kranitz, deserves a Pulitzer. Look at it. Let it wash over you. Look at the pain, the embarrassment, the poverty, the laziness, the hypocrisy. Feel the judgmental gaze of the onlooker, hear the underfed and neglected mutts (and apparently dangerous enough to warrant three signs!) barking over the chirp of anonymous swarm of swamp bugs, smell the weeds, the dust, the stench of the trash, the rotting animal nest underneath that woodpile.

I don't know where you're from, but that could be anywhere in the country that has trees. That could be in a suburb of any town north or east of Dallas all the way up to Maine. I've been to that place, smoked weed with kids from that place, have family or family of family that lives in places like those. I hadn't considered it before, but maybe I should, and maybe you should: this Trump thing is not going away soon -- not after November, not after Hillary.

These are all symptoms of a much larger disease, of societal breakdown, of Anywheretown, USA community breakdown. Look at this photo, man. Look.

Husband and I drove 3600 miles in a 9-day period this month, from the Deep South to the Great Lakes through the Midwest, and then back down through Baltimore and along Appalachia. This is typical of the rural landscape everywhere. It's visually striking, and made me depressed. We'd get to a city - Nashville, Cincinnati, etc - and the mood and visuals were different. It was positive, hopeful, even playful. But not rural America (and we have plenty of family whose places look like this, my folks in the swamp, his in Mississippi).

Even worse is that the older residents of those rural areas still remember when their town cores were quaint and fresh and pleasant, instead of the abandoned husks that remain today after being replaced by Wal-Mart, etc. Rural America is hurting, and having to stare at that kind of visually degraded environment probably doesn't help the mood.

i think the issue with hillary's numbers are that she hasn't really done much since the convention. there was the alt-right speech, and the outlining of the mental health agenda. trump's a loser, but there's only one rally for hillary's campaign scheduled through october and it's tim kaine.

and it seems she does better when there are more popular people stumping for her: biden, obama, sanders, bill clinton - are they going to campaign soon? it feels like august was a month of complacency for the clinton campaign.

I'm betting that once late September hits, she's going to be accompanied by someone popular for the vast majority of her appearances. Their popularity seems to have rubbed-off on her a bit from the convention, and the campaign probably knows it. They can lift her to a point where this race isn't really a 2000/2004-style close finish.
 
My point was not about the dominant part of Trump's coalition (of which I'm certainly aware, though I think the data overstates the case of suburban racists) but was instead pointing to the hypocrisy of THAT sign posted in THAT yard. And all of the things unsaid in between. I don't know, it just struck me is all.

Personally, I think it's almost impossible to overestimate suburban racism in the US. That picture looks exactly like the small Texas town I grew up in. It could be my Mema's house (who bought me and my brother "Ollie North for President shirts") or my best friends place. I guess that's the reason that pic didn't affect me much. It doesn't even register as a particularly impoverished house. Maybe I already internalized that hypocrisy 30 years ago.
 

dramatis

Member
Hi PoliGAF, I'm volunteering with the New Hampshire Democratic Coordinated Campaign this summer/fall! It's weird because it seems like they've had less data entry behind-the-scenes type stuff for me to do this time (which is what I'd prefer), and instead are always asking me to go canvassing or phonebanking, both of which I'd rather avoid... Anyways, next thing I'll be doing will be marching in a Labor Day parade in Milford... hopefully I'll get some more StreetPasses on my 3DS this time than I did at the 4th of July one! Anyways, keep up the good work posting and stuff...
Keep up the good work
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I know it's unintentional, but this description comes off a little classist to me. Like, as a poor person by Mississippi standards, most of my family lived (or lives) in places that looked like that house. And it's not really laziness that leads to that appearance; hell, most people don't realize how nice it is to even afford a lawn mower (my family got our first one when I was in high school) or the time/energy to use it (my single mother worked 12 hour night shifts in a medical clinic an hour away, so until my brother and I were old enough to cut the grass, we wouldn't have had a maintained lawn even with a lawn mower).

This level of poverty still exists here, and I can vouch that I definitely felt "the judgemental gaze of the onlookers" a lot growing up.

No, that classcism you are feeling is intentional, though it's coming from a place of deep self-identification. I know these people and I am desperately trying to avoid anyone ever finding out that I come from that place.

We could argue about the semantics of laziness, which is what the profile took head on, but one could certainly admit it doesn't take money to try a little harder. You can see it by looking at that rotting woodpile, by the haphazard lawn furniture left wherever it was last used.

I know that feeling, is all. And I know these people and I know they are deeply bigoted, hypocritical people whose homes look like this while they live in fear of black people whose home also look like this, just with fewer trees.

Husband and I drove 3600 miles in a 9-day period this month, from the Deep South to the Great Lakes through the Midwest, and then back down through Baltimore and along Appalachia. This is typical of the rural landscape everywhere. It's visually striking, and made me depressed. We'd get to a city - Nashville, Cincinnati, etc - and the mood and visuals were different. It was positive, hopeful, even playful. But not rural America.

Even worse is that the older residents of those rural areas still remember when their town cores were quaint and fresh and pleasant, instead of the abandoned husks that remain today after being replaced by Wal-Mart, etc. Rural America is hurting, and having to stare at that kind of visually degraded environment probably doesn't help the mood.

This is so true. You could go 5-6-7 miles in any direction in ANY metro area and find this house, and entire counties full of gravel roads leading up to 'streets' lined with these things. It is deeply unsettling and I think a real break in society that has to be addressed.

Personally, I think it's almost impossible to overestimate suburban racism in the US. That picture looks exactly like the small Texas town I grew up in. It could be my Mema's house (who bought me and my brother "Ollie North for President shirts") or my best friends place. I guess that's the reason that pic didn't affect me much. Maybe I already internalized that hypocrisy 30 years ago.

Fair. I too have internalized it but have built subconscious walls to forget about it. This is a harsh reminder and if you look around, everyone you know knows people that live in places like this.
 

johnsmith

remember me
“The American liberal press, in falling over themselves to defend Hillary Clinton, are erecting a demon that is going to put nooses around everyone’s necks as soon as she wins the election, which is almost certainly what she’s going to do,” Assange said in the interview, which was broadcast live Wednesday on Facebook.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-me...ts-demon-hillary-clinton-227597#ixzz4IwF7OLWV

Somebody arrest this rapist already.
 
Probably is now as they try to figure out what the fuck a NeoGAF is.

Hahaha I met an intercept writer that knows about GAF this weekend. They're were atttacked by gamergate so it wasn't too surprising, didn't mention poligaf and ItWasntMeantToBe19 though

Gaming side is pretty damn prominent on the web
 

Joeytj

Banned
For those asking, THIS gif is 100% what Mexico is feeling right now:

giphy.gif


Comes from Pictoline.com, which has become the de facto voice of Mexicans online for many current issues and pop culture.
 
It's more of the fact that Trump's support isn't increasing, it's that Clinton's is decreasing. That's a really bad sign.

I read this as completely the opposite. It's a bad sign for Trump, not Hillary.

Trump appears to have a real ceiling. Hillary's numbers seem to be afftected by other things.

The way I see it is Hilary is up around 5-7 points, but when Trump does something really stupid (like argue with the Khans) and the media is in full attack mode, his supporters (or at least soft supporters) are less likely participate in polls, similar to a convention bounce.

The real key is that more people than ever believe Hillary is going to defeat Trump and if that number keeps going up, that will lead to a blowout.
 
This is so true. You could go 5-6-7 miles in any direction in ANY metro area and find this house, and entire counties full of gravel roads leading up to 'streets' lined with these things. It is deeply unsettling and I think a real break in society that has to be addressed.

How though, its either subsidies (which they're already getting in terms of foodstamps and welfare) or relocation. Until we really have internet everywhere which I think could actually alleviate the problem if we had the education that went a long with it.

Manual rural jobs aren't coming back.
 
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