Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Well he's at 1% AA support. I don't think you can blowback into negative percentages.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Well he's at 1% AA support. I don't think you can blowback into negative percentages.
User 463088
Banned
He's only at 1% if you round up.
plagiarize
Banned
It's going to be a long boring 26 days before the debates of people freaking out over polls, before we start solidifying things.
The only inroads this is going to make is with white voters on the fence about his racist remarks, honestly this is as bad if not worse than that bit where he was talking to whites about black issues to me personally. At the very least you didn't have a president of a god damn country doing a spineless song and dance while he was talking down to them.
It's fucking galling to have the Mexican president call Trump's insults misinterpretations and I can't imagine the kind of play that's going to get with his electorate. Have a man call your people rapists and criminals only to also have those same comments waved away in the spirit of cooperation... fucking please.
It's fucking galling to have the Mexican president call Trump's insults misinterpretations and I can't imagine the kind of play that's going to get with his electorate. Have a man call your people rapists and criminals only to also have those same comments waved away in the spirit of cooperation... fucking please.
whyamihere
Banned
Yup.
User 463088
Banned
Oh yes. It has been a long ass wait. 3 weeks even seems close now.
Speaking about polls (again), this image from a couple of days ago., about where Hillary has the most campaign offices, prepared me for those Wisconsin numbers. I was surprised Wisconsin had so many offices.
Until today with those new polls. But I didn't freak out because of them, as I remember that the Hillary campaign has it shit together and has never taken Wisconsin for granted, or other states for that matter.
Until today with those new polls. But I didn't freak out because of them, as I remember that the Hillary campaign has it shit together and has never taken Wisconsin for granted, or other states for that matter.
User 463088
Banned
The Wisconsin office makes sense in light of the polls, but not in the way a lot of people think. Like, there was a sharp decrease in the percentage of Democrats who said they would definitely vote. (Which is what Marquette uses for its LV screen). Because Trump didn't gain anything, it tells me that Hillary's support is there, you just have to turn it out. So, that's what her field and ground game is going to do.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, when I saw that, I kind of assumed that her campaign had tighter internals than the public polling at the time.
GOP won't work with her, and US population will reward it (again). They are the "not going to allow governing to happen" party because it keeps working in mid-terms.
Yep. The First World (or more accurately, management / corporations in those countries) tried to globalize too fast and increase their labor pool (and wield massive leverage over labor) without thinking of the consequences of a notoriously tribal species (that had a massive rearrangement 50 years earlier due to WWII). Welp, welcome to the consequences.
I think if Clinton wins with like 52+% of the vote, then it'll be OK. But if she wins the election 45/42/12/1 (Clinton / Trump / Johnson / Stein) - then the GOP is going to be able to make a faux-legitimate argument that the country did not want her to actually be president, and just chose her to stop Trump from being elected (and they will quickly disavow Trump). Then they run on an Anti-Clinton campaign in 2018 and take over the Senate & House (if they haven't already), and prep for 2020. I'm not sure the US can handle 4 more years of gridlock with the infrastructure falling apart the way it is.
Congress is still directly elected; gerrymandering or not. Leave it this way - imagine if W had replaced Ginsburg in 2007, and this election you have the Dems take the House and the Senate and the presidency, but be unable to pass anything because a conservative SCOTUS chosen 10 years ago is going to block anything remotely progressive. Progressives are all on board with SCOTUS having power because we've had the presidency for 8 years, and we are on pace to tilt it towards us for a good 20 years assuming Clinton wins. We want it tilted for us so that even if a clear majority of Americans want different policies than we do, it wouldn't matter.
Yeah, that's a freaking problem.
nature boy
Member
Why is The Five a thing
cooljeanius
Member
Or any of the parts of the Gospels where Jesus criticizes Trump-like people. Such as Luke 18:22-25.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Getting into an 'all lives matter' argument with my brother. Fucking goddammit. I don't understand how we ended up so different.
nature boy
Member
Fox News poll:
Clinton +2, 41-39 RV, 48-42 H2H
Clinton +2, 41-39 RV, 48-42 H2H
Spoiled Milk
Banned
How the hell does Johnson break 10%? And Stein gets a whole 1?
THIS IS FINE
THIS IS ALSO FINE.
Wait a second...
I am the All Seeing Milk.
User 463088
Banned
H2H it is 48/42.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That is the widest difference between H2H and 4way I've seen in a poll yet.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Blerg.
This race going from Hillary +7 to Hillary +3 is lame as shit.
The only thing that's happened in the last month was "the Clintons probably hire too many of their friends for their foundation that saves millions of lives via AIDS protection." That's enough to make Hillary drop 4 points?
edit: +6 is good though!
Hillary should probably point out that Gary Johnson hates poor people at this point because he's eating up a massive amount of Hillary support for someone that wants to end Social Security and the income tax.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Also worth noting this is the first time fox has done a four person poll as far as I can see.
If this is true, what's the change, if any, in the two way poll?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Yeah, this is significant. If the Fox poll today is essentially still Clinton +6 then I think we should all celebrate tonight.
BTW: Which is usually more reliable? The head to head numbers, or the four way numbers? My suspicion is that third party voters usually just don't vote, anyway.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Obama won Hispanics by over 50 points so, uhh, not great.
White Evangelicals supporting Trump is strong proof against religion tbh.
Black Mamba
Member
This isn't a Hillary problem, it is a Democrat problem. Obama won easily and the GOP still argued there was never any mandate. Hillary could win 60-40 and they will still obstruct. Fucking McConnell filibustered his own bill just a few years ago. What else do we need to know? They won't govern, period.
Her margin of victory (in terms of the Presidency) will not matter to the GOP at all.
As for SCOTUS, I agree I'd rather not have them (or rather the federal appellate system which is where most of the power lies) be as important as they're becoming in terms of power to force change...but it is a consequence of the GOP's bullshit.
Nothing is going to change until the GOP changes itself as a political party or a huge group within the party splinters off. I wish I knew how to cause this to happen ASAP (other than win and win big) but until it does, we're stuck.
it sucks. It really sucks. But that's the reality we live in. All we can do is fight as hard as possible to push what we see as progress. That's it.
nature boy
Member
Either way, the TIGHTENING is real.
Don't you want to get Mook's attention?
Click away I say
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hillary crushed Bernie and Obama in Latino votes in both the 2008 and 2016 primaries so it seems confusing that she would do so much worse with Latino voters against "they're rapists" than Obama did against Rmoney.
StopMakingSense
Member
Stein is not getting 4 percent.
Black Mamba
Member
Johnson eating into Hillary's lead in places like California or hurting her in Mississippi doesn't matter. It only matters if it happens in swing states.
Too much focus on the national polling. This election is a bit unique in that I can totally see Hillary underperfoming in some reliably blue states (but not to Trump's benefit directly, to 3rd party) and overperforming in swing states.
Also, nothing really moved the election. All we're probably seeing is the convention bounce + Trump embarrassment shifting a bit in the response rates.
Trump can't clear 40 in a 4 way and he barely hits 42-44 in a 2 way. This is really bad for him. Where is he going to get more voters from?
User 463088
Banned
Last month they did a 3 way, but, ya first time with Jill in there. It was 44/35/12.
Just a few random things I noticed. They have it as a 41/41 party breakdown. Last month, it was 42/36, Dem advantage. Also, weirdly, they no longer do individual breakdowns based on race. They did last month. This month it's just "non-white"
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/771108881233768448
Hillary really should argue for legalization of weed....
whyamihere
Banned
Yup. Very odd.
User 463088
Banned
Where are you getting those numbers from, because they're not in the official release.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
The error for this poll is 3 points.
whyamihere
Banned
I mean, I don't think Stein is getting 4% and Johnson is going to get 9%. But I also think that clearly Clinton needs to do more to try to find out why these voters aren't telling pollsters they're going to vote for each other, especially if they were former Obama voters.
Basileus777
Member
When is Fox moving to LV? Are these Gary Johnson supporters really going to vote?
Its a waste of time.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Last poll had "Other" getting 5 percent and Trump getting 39%, this poll has "Other" getting 1% and Trump getting 42%. Perhaps the "ashamed Trump voter" exists? I guess I'm not getting the 3% swing toward Trump here.
Also, I found it very interesting that in both cases, a majority of the public wants the opposite political party in control of Congress to keep the presidential power in check.
whyamihere
Banned
Oh is this still RV? Meh.
Again, more proof Hillary loses support more than Trump gains. She seems to have a 3-5 point cushion against Trump, even with Johnson and Stein there.
User 463088
Banned
What I don't get is why on their website they release margins for African Americans and Latino voters, but those numbers are not available in the actual release.
There is no universe in which she's only running 68 points ahead among African Americans and 19 point among Latinos.
There is no universe in which she's only running 68 points ahead among African Americans and 19 point among Latinos.
Wow, even Nate Silver is diablosing now. But I take it the support for third parties mostly comes from really blue state.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
With white evangelicals, Muslims, Mormons, and black protestants basically locked to one party, there's no benefit for the Democrats to be still trying for "respectability" or shit like that socially. Legalize weed, anyone who gets mad at you has already determined whom they're going to vote for already and nothing could change their views.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-trump-narrows-clintons-lead.html
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-trump-narrows-clintons-lead.html
Fool me once, shame on you. But teach a man to fool and you'll get Trump as President.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Also, the poll clearly shows the Hillary email and "bad health" stories are non-starters. Over a majority of Americans think she used email for personal convenience instead of to hide something, and over 74% say the health thing is not worrisome at all.
60% of Americans say Trump is hiding stuff in his tax returns. Hillary has to hit him HARD on this, and I think her campaign has done a terrible job of it lately.
60% of Americans say Trump is hiding stuff in his tax returns. Hillary has to hit him HARD on this, and I think her campaign has done a terrible job of it lately.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I just checked the last poll they released, too. They reported a number for Hispanics but did not put said information in the actual release. What the hell?
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
...and now he's saying that he couldn't speculate as to whether a black rapist would get a longer prison sentence than that Stanford kid. The dishonesty is astounding. This is why I don't talk to him about much of anything.
Black Mamba
Member
UGHHHHHH
This is disconcerting.
Also, the poll has Hillary losing white college educated and only +8 among under 35.
No race breakdown is weird.
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