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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
- Thread starter Crayons
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Hillary has to win or at least tie with Trump this evening. I would argue that this first debate is far more important than Obama's at this point in 2012, because the second debate is town hall, and that is a setting that definitely does not play to Hillary strengths and I could really see Trump winning that one based on optics/perception alone. On the other hand, Obama does really good in that kind of format, whereas Romney looked like a moron. Clinton won't have that luxury to turn around a disastrous first debate and no one cares as much about the third one. Tonight is so crucial for her.
Huh? Hillary constantly beat Obama in every town hall in the 2008 primary.
She's not as good as Bill Clinton but she's pretty good in that format.
nature boy
Member
User 463088
Banned
Buddy, gonna disagree with you here. I think she needs a good night tonight, but that's true no matter what. But, she's not bad in Town Hall formats. That is, in fact, what her listening tours during the primary were all about. That's where she's pretty damn good. Trump managed to correct a veteran with PTSD in his last town hall. So, I'ma disagree with you there.
This is awesome spin.
So you can bullshit all you want without it being called a lie as long as you're not sure it's actually bullshit!
Trump is in "fight of his life" mode and I don't see him doing something that dumb again. He's not prepping like traditional candidates but he's likely done enough of his homework with Ailes et al.
Hillary is ok in that setting but I can see Trump capitalizing on speaking to the struggle of the working class and big socially conservative issues.
Conway on morning Joe right now concern trolling about tonight. They're calling her out on it a bit thankfully.
It's not a lie if you believe it.
Being worried over Colorado (at this point) seems silly to me, I'm sure the final push will turn on after the first. I don't think she needs much to seal the deal and there hasn't been any real activity in the state from either side other than advertising off and on.
The worry states have been consistent and both play well for trumps demos; Iowa and Ohio... there's going to be others that will play close but the two listed look like actual challenges for her.
The worry states have been consistent and both play well for trumps demos; Iowa and Ohio... there's going to be others that will play close but the two listed look like actual challenges for her.
So, she's sitting there in their face, telling them the media is biased and their reaction is "yeah, but why call that guy specifically?".
That's why people don't trust you.
balladofwindfishes
Member
While some people look at polls showing Trump +1 and see "oh my godddd we're dooomed" I look and see " holy crap, if Trump gets the most share of the white vote in 30 years, he still can only manage a +1!"
NYCmetsfan
Banned
This was the election where he said they cling to their guns and religion. I'm gonna eye roll this.
She has hit his economic plan. But lots of voters like racial resentment more it seens
Is it even DIABLOSING anymore?
It's a legitimately close race. And one candidate is apocalyptic.
nature boy
Member
That sounds like something out of George Constanza's playbook.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
It's not a question of 'if', the polls show he already has it. That's where we are.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's not just young voters, it's minorities, too. Basically, the Obama coalition is looking at Clinton and going "is this the best the Democrats had?".
User 463088
Banned
Diablos has specifically asked that this stop. Please stop. Like...honestly.
That generally they aren't biased to the point that they should be ignored. They're are incentive/format issues that we can acknowledge - but once we can't trust TV news what do we have?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Guys Trump has a ceiling. We've seen clinton higher. He's not gonna win the presidency with 42 percent of the vote.
There is no perot
There is no perot
balladofwindfishes
Member
It should be incredibly comforting to people that a unprecedented land slide turnout for white people still results in Trump losing.
I'd disagree here. She has plenty of positive ads out and when she's out speaking publicly she's very positive and pushes her message and policy
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I believe this started in here as "Trump's ceiling is 35," then moved to 40, now it is 42.
BotoxAgent
Member
I like this hopium posts. I need more
I am still pissed how the Clinton campaign bungled her huge ass lead.
Finale Fireworker
Member
We aren't using that term anymore. We call it Bedwetting now. Please respect Diablos and the viability of us bedwetters.
balladofwindfishes
Member
His ceiling has been the low 40s, consistently. I don't know where the 35 came from. He hasn't ever been that low.
Has Trump ever broken, in an aggregate, above 43?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
No it's been 43-44. Let's not rewrite the past. He was hitting that after the conventions when the first bed wetting started
'Unprecedented' doesn't mean 'won't happen'. It's what's suggested by the polls.
It only results in Trump losing by a knife edge. A small change in the polls would put him on break even chances to win.
If you have to use this kind of twisted logic to make yourself feel comfortable Trump won't win then you should be very worried indeed.
Hydrophobic
Member
I'm super lazy right now, does anyone have that 'post-debate' bingo card?
To her credit I did see that Hillary children ad get some play. So there's that.
And Trump's ceiling is a bit higher now, I think. He's been hitting 45 and higher. Those Never-Trumpers have come home.
Assuming things break down like this, it comes down to CO/NH
And this is a possibility
She cannot lose PA/CO and needs to either get a red state like NC or overturn Trump's advantage in FL/OH/NV. We're definitely in a much different place than we were in mid-August.
And Trump's ceiling is a bit higher now, I think. He's been hitting 45 and higher. Those Never-Trumpers have come home.
Assuming things break down like this, it comes down to CO/NH
And this is a possibility
She cannot lose PA/CO and needs to either get a red state like NC or overturn Trump's advantage in FL/OH/NV. We're definitely in a much different place than we were in mid-August.
User 463088
Banned
How can you say this? This is denial Adam.
Yep. We've even seen positive videos linked here. The problem is that the press only cares when she hits Trump. Positive stuff and policy is completely ignored.
As one podcast said recently, it's a mark of how bad this election is. In 2008 the release of each primary candidates health care plan was a *big* thing. In this election, the fact that one candidate has a ton of policy and the or there has 'build a wall' is just ignored. Trump is allowed to continually get away with giving completely gibberish answers when asked on policy, and his base doesn't care.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I like this hopium posts. I need more
I am still pissed how the Clinton campaign bungled her huge ass lead.
Where is this coming from? We knew this was coming since forever. There were always gonna be polls with him winning
We should be thrilled his ceiling is so low.
I like this hopium posts. I need more
I am still pissed how the Clinton campaign bungled her huge ass lead.
where was this? Her bounce faded. That was to be expected. "But worst nominee since Goldwater" Yeah but it's not 1964 or 1984 anymore. Country is polarized.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
everyone here was warned that this would be tight leading up the elections. our country is split mostly down the middle, no matter who is running.
Lmao.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
We've said this hundreds of times but people continue to be shocked by this.
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