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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Valhelm

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The thing about Obama v. Romney (as Adam pointed out last night) is that while Obama definitely stumbled and it hurt his poll numbers, he was able to recover in the next two debates because he was the incumbent president. Questions about experience, temperament etc. were irrelevant because for the last four years he'd already proven he was more than capable of doing the job competently (whether you agreed with his politics aside). He could convince voters who'd previously supported him to come back because he had a record.

Think of it like an employee at a firm for the past 3 and a half years who's proven himself to be a dedicated worker and you just catch him on a bad day. For Trump this was his job interview.

Very, very good point.
 

Saganator

Member
YouGov debate "winner" poll:

Hillary: 57
Trump: 30

83% of Dems thought Hillary won, 68% of Republicans thought Trump won. But among Independents, 54% thought Hillary won while only 28% thought Trump won.

God, freaking Independents can't even decide who won a damn debate, when it was painfully obvious, it's amazing they can decide what color to wear in the morning.
 
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PANIC

What is a CVoter?
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Romney when Obama didn't give a shit and Bill 92 when Bush was bored out of his mind by the plebs.

Romney 12 was not this big of a smackdown.

I think Clinton 92 is the closest in my lifetime.. but even then that was more that Clinton did really really well and Bush seemed a little bored (don't check that watch bro). But Bush didn't come off as an incompetent loon.

This is the biggest L by a large margin.
 

BiggNife

Member
I'm happy last night went about as well as it could have but I'm still a little concerned about the next two debates, mainly because a lot of people seem to think Trump was "winning" the first third of the debate. If he keeps hammering home his message about saving the lower and middle class, it could have an impact.

Clearly Hillary's strategy here was to let Trump ramble incoherently and let him hang himself, which worked. But what if he doesn't ramble next time? And I know a lot of you are going to say "he's going to ramble again so it doesn't matter" but I genuinely wonder what Hillary is going to do if the "sit back and smile" strat doesn't work the second time. I don't know what Plan B would be. We all know that trying to get on trump's level and yell at him would be disastrous.
 
C+ on 538 with a slight GOP bias

But that is one wacky poll. It's also getting passed around the alt-right boards. I actually found it on reddit. I don't think they're even included in 538's aggregate though.

Edit: 538 applies basically no weight at all to this poll. Garbage poll.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
I'm happy last night went about as well as it could have but I'm still a little concerned about the next two debates, mainly because a lot of people seem to think Trump was "winning" the first third of the debate. If he keeps hammering home his message about saving the lower and middle class, it could have an impact.

Clearly Hillary's strategy here was to let Trump ramble incoherently and let him hang himself, which worked. But what if he doesn't ramble next time? And I know a lot of you are going to say "he's going to ramble again so it doesn't matter" but I genuinely wonder what Hillary is going to do if the "sit back and smile" strat doesn't work the second time. I don't know what Plan B would be. We all know that trying to get on trump's level and yell at him would be disastrous.

He is going to have minorities grilling him face to face on his positions in the next debate. He is going to have to defend deportation and the removal of birthright in the face of a DREAMer and stop and frisk to an african american, and a muslim registration to a muslim american.

He is going to look BAD in the town hall. The Town Hall will play to Clinton's strength.

By the third debate viewership numbers will be way down and it will be really hard for him to counter punch on trade deals.

So, he basically blew his load last night.
 
Hot take time.

Is this the first modern debate in which neither candidate pivotted at all? Trump was his typical Trump, and Hillary staked out very progressive positions very similar to the primary. I didn't notice either of them pivot on any issue in order to appeal to the general election crowd.

I'm glad, I hated it when Romney did an about-face in 2012. Say what you will about Trump, but at least he didn't misrepresent himself. What you see is what you get. And credit Hillary for sticking to her guns on minimum wage, college debt, private prisons, etc.

It seems being very liberal on issues definitely benefited her; she needs to be more on that with climate change, race issues, and healthcare.

I think she should also try an argument that being someone with experience and the knowledge should be able to lead the country to change as you need to know what exactly you are doing to do that, and cite popular people who were politicians or part of the establishment and explain how they to change. Explain that you will carry the mantle of Obama. It will be also any easy way for her to criticize Trump as he lacks all of that. He doesn't have the temperament, the experience, the compassion, and the knowledge to change the US in any positive manner ; that he'll be very ineffective as a president. The best part about the argument all of it is something that Trump demonstrates he indeed does lack most or all of it.
 
God, freaking Independents can't even decide who won a damn debate, when it was painfully obvious, it's amazing they can decide what color to wear in the morning.
Lots of Independents are Republicans who are too embarrassed to identify as Republicans after G. W. Bush.

My personal favorite moment was easily Trump claiming Hillary had been fighting ISIS her "entire. adult. life."

Relistening to it again just made me laugh at how much of a sick burn he thought had, followed by the noticeable silence from the audience trying to parse what he had just said.

Fantastic.
Made no sense to me at the time but maybe Trump just thinks ISIS = Al Queada = Muslims? Wouldn't be surprised if he did.

The NRA has still refused to comment on Trump saying he will confiscate guns from black people and Latinos.
Of course they didn't. All they care about is selling guns. Take them away and they can sell them again. 2nd Amendment only applies to White people.
 
I love how CNN keeps changing their front page headline title

"TRUMP TAKES THE BAIT"
"TRUMP LOSES HIS COOL"
"TRUMP IS AWFUL"
"LOL TRUMP"

And stuff like that. I don't remember the specific ones, but they change it every few hours. They don't seem to really like Trump all that much. Not even MSNBC's front page is like this.
 
I just want to say that the latest 'keepin it 1600' episode is great. It's basically an audio equivalent of poligaf, a liberal echochamber, but them having so much fun and laughing is funny to listen to.
 
I don't know if "wildly racist man vs. anti-racist lawyer who worked on housing discrimination" will go this way when most of the campaign has been about race, Harry.

Has there been a less anticipated debate than next week's veep? "You're nice, Mike" "You're nice too, Tim" "That concludes tonight's debate"

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/780818307641446400

People have this bizarre view that Mike Pence is somehow competent and affable... And it's really not true! Pence's list of qualities goes as so:

1. Extreme stupidity.
2. No morals whatsoever, will say whatever his superiors tell him to say (like promoting the lie that Saddam did the Anthrax attacks).
3. Over the top bigotry.
 

Valhelm

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54-23 with independents is a MASSIVE win. Especially when you consider most "independents" at this point are disaffected Republicans who no longer identify with the party, but still lean heavily that way.

And if just 10% of those moderate Republicans stay home, neck-and-neck swing states go blue.
 

Blader

Member
I'm a pretty terrible judge of debates. I thought in the first '12 debate, Obama was just mediocre (though obviously beaten by Romney), and not the epic disaster everyone called it. Last night, while Trump was obviously going wild starting with the birther questions, I wasn't sure if it was different enough from the usual Trump bluster to move the needle with swing voters. And I also thought he did solidly in the first 15 or so mins, when they were talking about trade; not good, but (relatively) drawing even.

That said, the most bizarre thing that came up last night, even by Trump's standards and stood out to me as a different kind of crazy, was accusing Hillary of fighting ISIS for her entire adult life. What the hell does that even mean?!
 
Kaine is going to crush Pence. Pence is a huge jerk. Everyone loves Kaine.

Kaine just needs to list off all the vile, disgusting, hateful stuff Pence supports.

But only 15 people will watch the debate, so it doesn't really matter.
 

Blader

Member
I don't know if "wildly racist man vs. anti-racist lawyer who worked on housing discrimination" will go this way when most of the campaign has been about race, Harry.



https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/780818307641446400

People have this bizarre view that Mike Pence is somehow competent and affable... And it's really not true! Pence's list of qualities goes as so:

1. Extreme stupidity.
2. No morals whatsoever, will say whatever his superiors tell him to say (like promoting the lie that Saddam did the Anthrax attacks).
3. Over the top bigotry.

I laughed hard when I read that Pence was using Scott Walker as his Kaine stand-in during debate prep. Could they have picked a dumber man to practice off against?
 

Trurl

Banned
Bullshit.

Hillary's answer on race relations is absolutely on point and you can tell she actually cares about the issue.

What you are describing is sexism. IF she was passionate she would be called "bossy" or "shrill". If she is dispassionate she is "calculated" or "coniving".
A lot of it is sexism, but plenty of it is anti-intellectualism as well.
 
Private prisons are terrible and I am glad she mentioned it. It breeds that violence that Trump wants to stop and frisk all day everyday.

...i just wish someone would stop and frisk me. It would be the most action I would get in a long while.

It's also possibly that one of the bigger reasons that getting rid of private prisons in PA is a hit is because of the Kids for Cash scandal.

Also, as a side thing, I'm sorry if this was posted and I'm late on it, but with the whole Chuck Todd being a fucking dipshit thing about being over prepared, it's very much like this stupid shit:

ryan.jpg
 

Valhelm

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pence versus kaine debate is gonna be kinda cool because they both fit the two archetypes of fatherhood in America

mike pence is the assistant football coach who slams Miller Lite and calls his son a queer for growing his hair long, whereas tim kaine is the assistant scoutmaster who loves corny jokes and road trips
 

Holmes

Member
Pence is gonna hit Hillary harder on emails and Benghazi than Trump did last night, but Kaine is pretty good. I am confident in him. I doubt we'll see such a lopsided win, especially considering less people will tune in/care and VP debates really don't change anything. I think people will come out of that debate thinking "I wouldn't be so afraid of a Pence presidency than a Trump presidency".
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
"Little to gain"? It's pretty much his only chance to convince undecideds and leaners.

You're confusing whether a politician has something to gain in a debate and whether Donald Trump has something to gain in a debate.

Sure, he'd be able to gain a lot if he could completely change his personality and come up with some basic policy positions, but that's not an actual thing that happens.
 

Revolver

Member
That said, the most bizarre thing that came up last night, even by Trump's standards and stood out to me as a different kind of crazy, was accusing Hillary of fighting ISIS for her entire adult life. What the hell does that even mean?!

That was such an odd left field thing to say. Another moment I haven't seen mentioned is when he leaned into the mic while she was speaking and just made a weird indistinguishable sound. I don't know what that was about, like he was going to say "wrong" but just got out "wooo" or something.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Hillary is on a ladder. She might take a few steps up or a few steps down from time to time, but it isn't anything to panic about. There's a way up.

Trump is balanced on a high-wire of his own making, on a unicycle juggling chainsaws and blowing dogwhistles and yelling "Look at me!". There's no way to go further up and there's a long way down.

This debate he wobbled. A lot.
 
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