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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Like what does fully prep at this point mean?

For Trump it largely means being able to understand the question being posed and properly map it to an element in your set of prepared remarks, and then deliver on those remarks in a coherent manner.

This is the minimum bar for a debate. It include interacting with the opponent, audience, or moderator. It doesn't include understanding the camera framing and getting mannerisms straight. It's just more or less mapping input herp to a related set of campaign output derp-the political equivalent of a hashing function.

This is a positively herculean task for Trump to do for 45 minutes. You can't watch him over the last six months and think he's capable of doing this.

He can't pass the minimum bar and he's debating a candidate who is good at debating. It's a lost cause but he's never been ahead this campaign, so he has to keep trying.
 
Like what does fully prep at this point mean? Understand every subject related to the office of the presidency with a deep enough understanding to speak on it knowledgeably in front of millions of people? Impossible without an already extensive base of knowledge to build off of. It would be like taking a pleb off the street and trying to cram for the bar in 2 weeks.
I stand by what I've been saying. I believe Trump did prepare for the debate. This was, literally, the best he can do. He doesn't have the mental stamina to go toe to toe with Hillary. He doesn't understand policy, and she played him like a damn fiddle. Unless they can magically change his personality over the next two weeks, he's screwed.

My thought process would be to try and somehow get him to refuse to engage with her. Just answer what the moderator asks you, and ignore anything that comes out of her mouth. This is going to me impossible because it's Trump, but it's literally the only play I can come up with. The issue is, this doesn't work in a Town Hall, because it'll make you look like a dick.

On top of that, you have to undo what damage you did in the first debate. (Which, is possible, but you have to have previous positions and experience to fall back on a la Obama in 2012 and Bush in 2004). The issue for Trump is he appeared unqualified to be President....and that is now cemented. You can't fix that in two weeks.

His strategy is going to be going after Hillary a lot harder than this debate, and he's going to do that at a Town Hall. This is so damn dangerous.

Hillary's team has the ability to make it impossible for him to actually be able to do that, if they can keep a few scandals spinning at a time. Now is when you drag out the people he stiffed. Now is when you get women who worked for him to come out and say he's sexist. Every stupid thing he said in the debate, you hit back by pairing a surrogate with an issue. Biden gets to be your blue collar stiffing the workers guy. Obama gets to be the "disgusted sigh over African American communities" surrogate. Mom and Dad get to stay positive. You plant Dad in front of every Spanish language network you can find.

Like, we have the ability to hit him everywhere at once. We need to do it, and I'm pretty sure we are, if you go by today's scheduling.
 

sphagnum

Banned
Like what does fully prep at this point mean? Understand every subject related to the office of the presidency with a deep enough understanding to speak on it knowledgeably in front of millions of people? Impossible without an already extensive base of knowledge to build off of. It would be like taking a pleb off the street and trying to cram for the bar in 2 weeks.

Probably getting him to control his temper at this point.
 
Are they actually doing a new season or did they really rebuild Wills apartment set just for that?

For a long time, the apartment set had been displayed in Emerson College's library (since Kevin Bright's name wasn't on enough things on the campus.) A few years ago, it was removed to make space, I guess they used those props, or other copies.
 
Like what does fully prep at this point mean? Understand every subject related to the office of the presidency with a deep enough understanding to speak on it knowledgeably in front of millions of people? Impossible without an already extensive base of knowledge to build off of. It would be like taking a pleb off the street and trying to cram for the bar in 2 weeks.

Yup. That's the issue. Somebody like even Sarah Palin and I can't believe I'm saying this at least dealt with things like Medicaid, No Child Left Behind, energy policy, etcetera as Governor, even if she didn't fully understand it.

OTOH, everything outside of probably HUD law, some environmental stuff he's ran into while trying to build stuff, and some labor laws he's broken, everything is new to him.
 
A few notes for today:

- My Facebook feed has absolutely exploded in terms of support for Hillary. Like damn. I haven't seen this ever. It ranges from videos of Trump sniffing 40 times to personal pleas to people that want to vote 3rd party to vote for Hillary to positive articles on Hillary's policy mentions like the private prisons and infrastructure/renewable energy.

- Many people in comments are still posting about Gary Johnson, there just typically is someone that makes a rebuttal against Gary.

- 538 podcast is absolute trash. Their analysis of the debate had me wanting to punch things. They seem super smug about it all the time too. I listened to Keepin' it 1600 and the NPR Politics as well. I'd say Keepin' It 1600 is basically GAF in podcast form for better or worse. NPR was very reasonable and a good listen.

- I really can't mention that I support Hillary anywhere in Mississippi for fear of my personal safety and job security. I have multiple bosses that just shit talk democrats all the time. Sad thing is that I like them for the most part as long as they aren't talking about politics.
 

Kid Heart

Member
Well, if Trump really believes he won based on online polls, why would he do any additional preparation next time anyway?

Oh god, I can't imagine the delicious irony if Trump doesn't do any prep for the next debate based on his supporters trying to do damage control. Their tears when he gets walloped again would be delicious.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Will & Grace has a special place in my heart. I could see it changing hearts and minds of family members who viewed it, which was remarkable to me back then. It helped move the needle.

That, and Karen Walker has to be one of my all-time favorite TV characters. Megan Mullally was born for that role.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Will & Grace has a special place in my heart. I could see it changing hearts and minds of family members who viewed it, which was remarkable to me back then. It helped move the needle.

That, and Karen Walker has to be one of my all-time favorite TV characters. Megan Mullally was born for that role.

It's always interesting how certain people just seem born for a role. I'd say Doris Roberts and Peter Boyle are similar in that way with Everybody Loves Raymond.
They were my Grandparents personified, almost eerie at times.

Never seen it. Sorry

That's... interesting.
Although, i've only watched a few episodes myself.
 

Slizeezyc

Member
God I hate the "Both sides" arguement. I think people do it trying to be special snowflakes.

The both sides itself doesn't bother me so much as the "it's a shame these are the two candidates" stuff. Whatever your feelings about primaries, pmillions of people chose these two people to get this far.

(Kaepernick may be the new face of the both sides(!) argument, which pains me because I like oodles about what Kaepernick has said overall.)
 
It's broken on two fronts in this case.

How is the assertion that good in business will translate to good in public life? Trump isn't even a good businessman by any definition.

4 bankruptcies isn't "business acumen". It's buffoonery. Scamming people out of money via fake colleges isn't "business acumen". It's clown shoes.

Yes yes, I agree he's not great. Just noticed a lot of people commenting on this today on various outlets including the radio. People seem to think it will translate into jobs for everyone and money on trees.



Or really any good sort of role in politics. Whenever I think of a businessman running a government, I think of Craig Benson, who was New Hampshire's worst governor and got voted out after a single 2-year term. He had the same attitude and style as Trump and was horrible.

The goal of business if to make money. The goal of government isn't. The two positions are actually quite opposed.
 

teiresias

Member
Will & Grace has a special place in my heart. I could see it changing hearts and minds of family members who viewed it, which was remarkable to me back then. It helped move the needle.

That, and Karen Walker has to be one of my all-time favorite TV characters. Megan Mullally was born for that role.

I remember the whole Ellen thing when I was in high school. It really was a big deal for me, and while I enjoy W&G for what it is, Jack always annoyed me since he's such a stereotype - hilarious, but a stereotype.

Actually, for my family, The Real World: Miami (season 5) was the first time many in my family saw a real gay person on TV with Dan in that season, and it was their first exposure to it since I was too young to be out at the time, granted I was a senior in high school in 96, but it was still a different time then.
 
I had someone on facebook make a pseudo-intellectual "the only vote not wasted in this election is a vote for the third party." I proceeded to unfriend him. I'll give him some credit that at least he's voting for Johnson over Stein.

I also recently learned one of my friends is a liberal that despises Clinton but likes Stein because "she's similar to Bernie." Fortunately he knows that the only way to stop Trump is vote for Clinton in November. Also fortunate that he said that mere seconds before I was going to say "Jill Stein is an idiot."
 

Fuchsdh

Member
I hate treating people like monolithic groups because I certainly hate it when people talk about "straight white guys", but I've got a bunch of brown and black people on my Facebook feed who push the "Hillary is as bad a Trump" angle with a side of "why are people turning it into a race thing" with police shootings and I just can't understand it. Yeah, not everything is about race, but when your first instinct is "the media is trying to make this into a race thing" methinks you might have the wrong mindset, and that's *before* we get to the point where I don't see the pragmatism or sheer self-interest at work in letting Trump win if you're a black Muslim.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I had someone on facebook make a pseudo-intellectual "the only vote not wasted in this election is a vote for the third party." I proceeded to unfriend him. I'll give him some credit that at least he's voting for Johnson over Stein.

I also recently learned one of my friends is a liberal that despises Clinton but likes Stein because "she's similar to Bernie." Fortunately he knows that the only way to stop Trump is vote for Clinton in November. Also fortunate that he said that mere seconds before I was going to say "Jill Stein is an idiot."

Should tell him Stein thinks wifi causes cancer. That's what I do.
 
I stand by what I've been saying. I believe Trump did prepare for the debate. This was, literally, the best he can do. He doesn't have the mental stamina to go toe to toe with Hillary. He doesn't understand policy, and she played him like a damn fiddle. Unless they can magically change his personality over the next two weeks, he's screwed.

I agree with this and have been thinking it myself. He's been vocal about his approach and it feels like another way of lowering expectations.
 
I had someone on facebook make a pseudo-intellectual "the only vote not wasted in this election is a vote for the third party." I proceeded to unfriend him. I'll give him some credit that at least he's voting for Johnson over Stein.
Yeah, I have some people on Facebook who were doing pretty much the same thing today and passive aggressively commenting on people's debate statuses about how terrible they are for supporting Hillary and how she's just as racist and terrible as Trump but hides it behind all her policy talk and at least Trump has the decency to straight-up say it. My eyeroll almost detached my retinas.
 
People on social media get really upset when you make the causal observation that "both sides are evil" happens to be a perspective shared overwhelmingly by 20-something straight white guys and only marginally by any other demographic.
 
yYgVbLb.gif
WHOOO
 

Fuchsdh

Member
Yeah, I have some people on Facebook who were doing pretty much the same thing today and passive aggressively commenting on people's debate statuses about how terrible they are for supporting Hillary and how she's just as racist and terrible as Trump but hides it behind all her policy talk and at least Trump has the decency to straight-up say it. My eyeroll almost detached my retinas.

Those comments always make me think about the climate change deniers. "So?" Even if Clinton is racist, she's pushing for non-racist policies. Even if climate change is fake, reducing pollutants, switching to cleaner fuels and becoming energy-independent are only good things.

They're probably not actually arguing from a general concern about the racism stuff, but still.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
People on social media get really upset when you make the causal observation that "both sides are evil" happens to be a perspective shared overwhelmingly by 20-something straight white guys and only marginally by any other demographic.

I mean, that is hardly the primary set of people saying that nonsense. It's mostly just middle-right suburban conservatives ashamed of their options and rapidly collapsing worldview. This isn't hard to figure out.
 

teiresias

Member
Gonna mention gay progress vis a vis Real World and not mention Pedro??

I was speaking strictly for my own family's exposure to gay people through the show which happened in Season 5, as we didn't watch the show at all prior to Season 5. Obviously, Pedro is a big deal in television history.

Of course, does anyone even give a crap about Season 53, or whatever, of Real World anymore? Like the first maybe six seasons are iconic, but it seems to be just pretty people living rent free nowadays.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
If the Hillary campaign has more of these fully loaded attacks waiting in the wings, oh man, that's going to be devastating. Trump is so utterly unprepared for anything and everything.

Just watched the video of Trump bringing up the Miss Universe fat shaming incident, unprompted, and continuing to fat shame her. Just watch the faces of the people on Fox & Friends. They're like..."this guy really is a thin skinned idiot".
They're so desperately hoping for a lifeline to save Trump from digging his own hole even deeper.
 
The one thing that I keep thinking about is how this election must be a W for Obama's place in history. If it were any other challenger his legacy could still go down as great, but this man has lead a racist conspiracy theory to delegitimatize the man--him following up Obama would be ridiculous.

He deserves so much better. That anyone could vote for this guy when he has so openly disparaged the president, on bullshit prejudiced grounds, is profoundly upsetting.

For his sake I hope Clinton gets a healthy, healthy bump in tomorrow's numbers.
 

Armaros

Member
Silver's tweet can't be mocked enough tbh. It's the fulfillment of his descent into self-parody.

Its sad what the pursuit for hits does to you, compared to being able to do it for the actual work itself.

He is a few steps away from the crazed punditry that attacked him in 2012, very close.
 

Blader

Member
Are they actually doing a new season or did they really rebuild Wills apartment set just for that?

The set was actually kept in the middle of my school's library (for reasons??), but they took it out a couple years ago so it could easily be the real thing.
 
It's so petty, but I'm still laughing.


You're petty, but I bumped my old thread :p

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=218363480#post218363480

With new stuff from an article Wang just retweeted:

I Think Nate Silver Is Broken, Maybe?
Here’s my theory: I think Nate Silver is broken. I think the primaries, in which he took Ls just about hourly on his (reasonable and justified!) certainty that Trump was about to flame out, broke him; the lesson he took away from the beating seems to have been Nothing is knowable. I think he is Nate Bronze now.
 
John Harwood
‏@JohnJHarwood
Senate Dem strategist on Clinton debate effect: "puts possibility of blowout win with long coattails back on table"

If this election reaches blowout status again after Repubs figured it was safe to stick with Trump I'll die of laughter.

Yeah, I have some people on Facebook who were doing pretty much the same thing today and passive aggressively commenting on people's debate statuses about how terrible they are for supporting Hillary and how she's just as racist and terrible as Trump but hides it behind all her policy talk and at least Trump has the decency to straight-up say it. My eyeroll almost detached my retinas.

The first comment was "this is literally the worst election to do that." He responded that neither candidate was quality or something along those lines.

Should tell him Stein thinks wifi causes cancer. That's what I do.

He was in full on rant-about-Trump mode for like an hour when it was brought up so I decided not to press. I figure his heart is in the right place and that's enough for me right now lol.
 

Makai

Member
Nate should just open source his model. Having a good-looking website is his main differentiating factor over sites like Sam Wang's. No point in keeping his model a trade secret if people are suspicious of it.
 
Nate should just open source his model. Having a good-looking website is his main differentiating factor over sites like Sam Wang's. No point in keeping his model a trade secret if people are suspicious of it.

The model isn't even the worst problem there. The site has a ton of written words and they're all trending towards terrible.

That's a pretty good article that could have definitely gone more in depth but didn't want to drag him.

The question is, can Nate swallow his ego and see his mistakes?

Only months too late if history is any indicator. The guy loves to double down whenever he goes on a limb.
 

Ophelion

Member
If this election reaches blowout status again after Repubs figured it was safe to stick with Trump I'll die of laughter.

Would be just what they deserve after all bending the knee to that idiot. As I saw it stated so eloquently before: when you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

Also, because I've been away since my place of work blocked GAF (stupid IT actually doing its job...) just wanted to say that this last debate was like a world-class matador at the height of their powers entering the arena only to find waiting for them an inebriated toddler in a bull costume. The matador sighs, pulls out their sword and goes, "Oh, what the hell. Wasn't like I had anything else planned for tonight."
 
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