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[Y2Kev]

so la times poll has trump up 4 again, gaining support among young and black voters today.

i wonder if it's trump gaining support or if it's a really good couple of days for hillary leaving the weekly average.

This poll is so ridiculous.

 

[aaaaa0]

No he didn't, both are nonstarters.

Hillary supported the idea of TPP, but didn't negotiate it and disagreed with the final form and doesn't endorse it. Been consistent on that for months now.

Hillary wasn't in office for NAFTA and didn't vote for it, that was Bill and Bill isn't running. Want to slam Bill's record that's fine...but Bill has 8 years of a phenomenal economic boom and job increase to give him credibility. Good luck there.

Hillary had the opportunity to vote on CAFTA, didn't like it and shot it down on merit.

"Hillary loves bad trade deals!" Is pure fiction and Trump has never negotiated any deal in the same universe as CAFTA, NAFTA, or TPP to point to as experience...and as has quickly become apparent he's nowhere near the businessman he claims he is.

I agree 100% with you. Trump is completely wrong, but it felt like she lost the initiative during that segment of the debate. He just started shouting and rolling over her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=855Am6ovK7s&feature=youtu.be&t=20m25s

"Well that's your opinion."
"Well that is just not accurate."

She was only able to halt his tirade by landing her "Donald I know you live in your own reality" combo breaker that got a laugh from the audience.

And her response to his "So it is President Obama's fault?" was super weak. "There are different views."

I just think rhetorically, there must be some better way to handle this line of debate.

 

[Y2Kev]

She missed the chance to say "I'm not Bill." I dunno why.

 

[Makai]

She missed the chance to say "I'm not Bill." I dunno why.

Associate with the positives.

 

[nature boy]

Too much hopium in here, need some bedwetting

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters

To kill Donald Trump's chances of capturing the White House, Hillary Clinton needs to win Florida. And to do that, she needs a big minority turnout.

But Democrats are beginning to worry that too many African-American voters are uninspired by Clinton’s candidacy, leading her campaign to hit the panic button this week and launch an all-out blitz to juice-up voter enthusiasm.

Bill Clinton, once nicknamed the “first black president,” embarks on a North Florida bus tour Friday in an attempt to draw African-American crowds. At the same time, Clinton herself will hosts events in Broward and St. Lucie counties, which have black populations higher than the statewide average.

That follows the events of this past weekend, when black mothers who have lost children to gun violence hosted a Clinton organizing event in Jacksonville and a voter-registration drive in Opa-Locka, a majority black city near Miami. The group, Mothers of the Movement, includes Sybrina Fulton, mother of Trayvon Martin, whose 2012 shooting death near Orlando became a flashpoint for racial division and gun violence.

Coming soon: President Barack Obama, who’s expected to campaign here at least twice before Election Day. First Lady Michelle Obama — more popular than her husband — will likely visit Florida as well, in addition to the ad she cut for Clinton that’s currently airing on Florida radio.

"Hillary Clinton's campaign is in panic mode. Full panic mode," said Leslie Wimes, a South Florida-based president of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus.

"They have a big problem because they thought Obama and Michelle saying, 'Hey, go vote for Hillary' would do it. But it's not enough," Wimes said, explaining that too much of the black vote in Florida is anti-Trump, rather than pro-Clinton. "In the end, we don't vote against somebody. We vote for somebody."

Part of the problem Clinton faces is that Obama, the actual black president, is the toughest of acts to follow. Obama enjoyed support from 95 percent of Florida’s black voters in both 2012 and 2008, according to exit polls.

Clinton isn’t polling quite that well in a state that has nearly 1.7 million black voters. An average of the last three Florida polls that provided racial breakdowns shows she’s polling less than 85 percent among African-American voters in Florida, while Trump polls around 5 percent.

It’s not just Clinton’s margins with black voters that concerns Democrats. It’s whether African-American voters turn out in force for her in a pivotal state whose 29 electoral votes are essential to the GOP nominee's path to an Electoral College victory. A loss in Florida all but guarantees a Trump defeat on Election Day.
...

Similar problem with Hispanics

 

[Diablos]

Fox: "Trump threatens to 'hit her harder' at next debate"

Nice choice of words, asshole.

Anderson Cooper won't put up with that but I do grow concerned that Fox will get the last laugh via Chris Wallace.

 

[User 463088]

Why in the world would anyone believe anything Politico writes. They'll, literately, write two different stories about the same thing and say that "people in the know" are both elated and terrified.

 

[Boke1879]

Too much hopium in here, need some bedwetting

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters



Similar problem with Hispanics

I think everything from now until election will be an effort to do just that. I believe she'll be in Florida on Friday. We'll see

 

[excelsiorlef]

What the fuck? Even I know Hillary is Hermione, and I've only watched the films.

What's amazing is the image compared Trump to Gilderoy Lockehart... who while not a good person was infinitely less evil than fucking Umbridge...


I'm so honestly sick of this demonization of Clinton, and I mean that literally, people act like she's an actual demon...

 

[shinra-bansho]

You're telling me you don't believe in the Poolitico Caucus and their deep insight?

Real talk. It would be awesome if she was an actual demon.

 

[Retro]

Nate whatevercolourtrashis. Brown? Grey? Black?
Trash rainbow. Smells like sulphur.

Nate Pantone 448 C

Brilliant line I heard on TV:

Clinton went after Trump's strengths, not his weaknesses, and surgically dismantled him: his boasting about owning a beauty pageant, his claims about his business acumen contrasted with the housing crisis; him being a smart businessman who fights to pay as little taxes as possible; how he started his business with a 'small loan'; his sense of achievement about 'putting the birther issue to rest'.

Brilliant.

Exactly.
He believes he's charming because he trades up for a younger wife every few years and exploits women for his own gain.
He believes he's wise because he can play the real estate game with peoples' homes and lives.
He believes he's shrewd because he evades paying his fair share and doesn't pay his workers.
He very clearly believes he's business savvy because he made himself wealthy when in fact, he was born into everything he has.
He believes he's powerful because he was persistently obnoxious enough to get a sitting president to eventually act.

All the things he considers strengths and uses the prop himself up are the same reasons he's a detestable human being to everyone else. You really couldn't ask for a better example of someone living inside their own bubble to bring down a political party that's been doing the same since at least Election Night 2008.

What still makes me angry is the smile nonsense, omg fake omg she didnt smile enough! Ugh

Maybe I've just been avoiding the right websites, but I'm honestly surprised there hasn't been any mention of what she was wearing / how she did her hair / etc.

Fox: "Trump threatens to 'hit her harder' at next debate"

The good news is, his tiny hands would leave small bruises.

The bad news, of course, is this reads like a bully threatening physical violence because he was just soundly beaten up by a girl.

Objectively the worst possible lesson to take from the experience and if he even shows up to another debate and uses this "no holds barred" strategy, he'll just end up flat on his ass with both feet in his mouth that much sooner.

 

[nature boy]

Why in the world would anyone believe anything Politico writes. They'll, literately, write two different stories about the same thing and say that "people in the know" are both elated and terrified.

???

You have quotes in there, and people have different views.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Clinton campaign took parts of the AA community for granted.

Time to fix that.

 

[cooljeanius]

Yep. Dreams aren't magic, all that stuff drawn out by them exist within to begin with.

If that's true, how have I had sex in my dreams when I'm still a virgin IRL?

 

[Kusagari]

Does anyone know how the LA Times poll actually keeps their select group responding?

I would have just stopped responding to that thing months ago if I was on it.

 

[gaugebozo]

From the times front page:

I'm SURE it's unintentional.

 

[User 463088]

???

You have quotes in there, and people have different views.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Clinton campaign took parts of the AA community for granted.

Time to fix that.

I will entertain some criticisms of Hillary and her campaign. But, this is one I do not have time for. She has absolutely not taken any part of the African American community for granted. She has worked incredibly hard on making sure her platform appeals to everyone, but especially to people (particularly women) of color. Now, is she perfect? No one is. But I disagree, fundamentally, with the assertion that her African American out reach has been "parade Michelle and Barack out there" And besides, it's Politico. They're terrible.

And, yes, this is one of my trigger issues, because I do see a lot of Democrats pull that shit. And when they do it, it pisses me the hell off. Because our party is built on people of color, again specifically women of color, and ANYONE who refuses to engage with the African American community can take every seat in the house. All of them.

Anyway

Sissy that vote gurl

 

[Diablos]

So 18 states have asked DHS to help them prevent hackers from exploiting their voting systems. It doesn't look like the states have been specified. I wonder if most of them are blue states...

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/27/politics/cybersecurity-rigged-election-homeland-security/index.html

 

[Plinko]

So 18 states have asked DHS to help them prevent hackers from exploiting their voting systems. It doesn't look like the states have been specified. I wonder if most of them are blue states...

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/27/politics/cybersecurity-rigged-election-homeland-security/index.html

Nothing worries me more about election day than this. We already see how much Russia wants to influence this thing.

Also, who knows how badly Donald Trump's 10-year old son could mess this thing up with his computer? Word on the street is that he's amazing with computers.

Too much hopium in here, need some bedwetting

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters



Similar problem with Hispanics

I have a feeling the first debate helped a ton.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Nothing worries me more about election day than this. We already see how much Russia wants to influence this thing.

Also, who knows how badly Donald Trump's 10-year old son could mess this thing up with his computer? Word on the street is that he's amazing with computers.

I heard he weighs over 400 pounds.

 

[Diablos]

Nothing worries me more about election day than this. We already see how much Russia wants to influence this thing.

Also, who knows how badly Donald Trump's 10-year old son could mess this thing up with his computer? Word on the street is that he's amazing with computers.

The youth vote, some act of violence/terror and hacking are what worry me.

Johnson is getting way too much support in some states. It's a serious problem.

If some state state system gets hacked, even if it's something minor that wouldn't change the outcome, I expect the GOP to try and halt the entire election pending an investigation.

If there is violence/terrorism i can't think of anything else that would depress turnout faster not to mention that would be a sad day for American politics and society in general.

 

[Plinko]

The youth vote, some act of violence/terror and hacking are what worry me.

Johnson is getting way too much support in some states. It's a serious problem.

If some state state system gets hacked I expect the GOP to try and halt the entire election pending an investigation.

I wouldn't worry about Johnson. My guess is the debates will start shifting his support away from him.

 

[Diablos]

I wouldn't worry about Johnson. My guess is the debates will start shifting his support away from him.

I don't know. There's so many younger millennials who just have it baked in that the two party system is evil and they really think indirectly helping Trump by voting for a third party to stick it to Dems is good for their future because platform. Like, try to look more than a couple steps ahead of you. It's a problem

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

Too much hopium in here, need some bedwetting

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters



Similar problem with Hispanics

good. they were complacent for all of august and blew a huge lead. they need to end this thing.

 

[thebloo]

Except people watched live, new stations played Trumps most vile shit today. I mean that just doesn't change. Trump yelling that he won doesn't suddenly change that. Of course his base thinks he won, but by and large. No one else does. That was a horrible performance.

 

[Diablos]

What's she saying? The whole thing is RIGGED and it made no impression on her I guess?

 

[Boke1879]

What's she saying? The whole thing is RIGGED and it made no impression on her I guess?

This is from June and she was talking about an NBA game

 

[Diablos]

This is from June and she was talking about an NBA game

Uh ok

 

[Kusagari]

Democrats took it way too easy, assuming minorities would just turn out in Obama numbers because Trump is a racist assclown.

Worst thing you can be in a campaign is complacent.

 

[User 463088]

At the end of the day, I don't think like 70% of the people who say they're voting for Johnson are going to even bother voting. Like, if you care so little about your future that you want to throw a vote away on that, and you're an unlikely or infrequent voter (and, you know millennials are in that group, for whatever reason) and just won't bother showing up. I think we'll see his numbers come down anyway, because, like, he wasn't on the debate stage and he's never going to win anything.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

She gives bad answers on the TPP, and trade in general, because she's only giving those answers to appease the anti-trade odd-couple of blue collar workers who have been disproportionately impacted by it, and annoying dumb contrarian millennials whom have only ever benefited from it and aren't doing their pointless overpriced liberal arts degrees to go make cars.

She gives bad answers because she's trying to secure votes and isn't being honest. We have good reason to suspect that with the protectionist regulations, redistribution of wealth, and extremely small impacts projected for growth and employment in pacts like the TPP post-1980 that it'll likely be a net negative for the US.

 

[Diablos]

At the end of the day, I don't think like 70% of the people who say they're voting for Johnson are going to even bother voting. Like, if you care so little about your future that you want to throw a vote away on that, and you're an unlikely or infrequent voter (and, you know millennials are in that group, for whatever reason) and just won't bother showing up. I think we'll see his numbers come down anyway, because, like, he wasn't on the debate stage and he's never going to win anything.

I also wonder how many people who say Johnson are just people who are embarrassed to say they are actually voting for Trump.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I also wonder how many people who say Johnson are just people who are embarrassed to say they are actually voting for Trump.

No one. Stop inventing anxieties!

 

[User 463088]

I also wonder how many people who say Johnson are just people who are embarrassed to say they are actually voting for Trump.

Eh, I don't think there's a shy Tory effect going on. Like, there are minor but not huge differences in live caller polls and automated polls, but it's within the realm of normalcy. I mean, maybe there is, but I think there's jut as likely a good chance that there's a shy Clinton effect too. (Not that I think there are a lot of either, but just saying...) Like, maybe, but I think we don't worry about that.

Morning Consult just released a poll about the debate.

 

[East Lake]

She gives bad answers because she's trying to secure votes and isn't being honest. We have good reason to suspect that with the protectionist regulations, redistribution of wealth, and extremely small impacts projected for growth and employment in pacts like the TPP post-1980 that it'll likely be a net negative for the US.

No you see it's contrarian millenials like Joe Stiglitz that are screwing it up.

 

[Boke1879]

Everything is all about turnout and I have faith over the next 6 weeks people will.

 

[Y2Kev]

I think it's not quite as simple. There are geopolitical concerns with china. It's about getting the best deal you can get, not that you can't get what you want all of the time.

NAFTA's impact is pretty debated I think.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

These millennials don't need to turn out. They need to turn UP.

Turn up for WHAT?

The polls, that's what.

 

[User 463088]

This was buried in the Morning Consult release as well:

Before the debate, Trump led Clinton by 1 point in the four-way race with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. But Clinton now leads Trump by 3 points (41 percent to 38 percent), and in a head-to-head scenario, she leads by 4 points (45 percent to 41 percent).

Also, Politico has decided to partner with Morning Consult for their polling.

: vomits profusely :

 

[sazzy]

Trump campaign doubling down on discrediting Alicia.

Don't turn on CNN right now.

 

[PBY]

Did we discuss this?

Sean T RCP-
LATimes tracking shows nudge toward Trump. Only one day post-debate, but *if *others are similar she is in deep trouble.


Fwiw morning consult makes more sense to me

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Did we discuss this?

Sean T RCP-
LATimes tracking shows nudge toward Trump. Only one day post-debate, but *if *others are similar she is in deep trouble.


Fwiw morning consult makes more sense to me

All logic and reason should tell you something is seriously wrong with the LA Times poll and that the debate will, at worse, have no effect on the race, but at best, a few point, maybe more, swing to Hillary.

LA Times is weird, and the polling only had a tiny bit of the debate in it.

 

[tuffy]

New Debate Strategy for Donald Trump: Practice, Practice, Practice

His advisors want him to practice, but there's not much indication from the article that he actually will practice. It's all "still under discussion". I still believe intense debate prep and rehearsal is beyond his capability.

 

[Zeeman]

Did we discuss this?

Sean T RCP-
LATimes tracking shows nudge toward Trump. Only one day post-debate, but *if *others are similar she is in deep trouble.


Fwiw morning consult makes more sense to me

The tracking polls have so much noise that trying to analyze day-to-day is basically meaningless, they're only really helpful for overall trends

 

[User 463088]

Did we discuss this?

Sean T RCP-
LATimes tracking shows nudge toward Trump. Only one day post-debate, but *if *others are similar she is in deep trouble.


Fwiw morning consult makes more sense to me

Don't even look at that stupid USC thing. It is so broken it's not even funny. Trump gained 5 points among African American voters in a day. He's up to 18% with them. Like, half of their sample has never, ever voted before ever. They do an equal number of Dems and Republicans. The whole thing is just stupid.

Also, RCP is terrible.

 

[DOWN]

Should I be concerned at how close 538 has gotten in the last month or fine with the fact she is winning and might get a debate boost this weekend?

Never,ind. Princeton says she's got it locked so long as we vote basically http://election.princeton.edu

Updated my voter registration yesterday

 

[Pixieking]

Did we discuss this?

Sean T RCP-
LATimes tracking shows nudge toward Trump. Only one day post-debate, but *if *others are similar she is in deep trouble.


Fwiw morning consult makes more sense to me

If people have shifted towards Trump post-debate (they won't have, but let's play along), then it shows that those being polled are deeply deeply misogynistic. There is no way someone can view that debate and come out pro-Trump, unless you have the view that every time a women corrects a man she's being a bitch, women can't be knowledgeable about current affairs, and they can never smile without being smug.

And, to be honest, if that's the case for the wider US population (not just those being polled), Hillary never stood a chance.

His advisors want him to practice, but there's not much indication from the article that he actually will practice. It's all "still under discussion". I still believe intense debate prep and rehearsal is beyond his capability.

Yeah, I think they threw everything into getting him to practice for the first debate, and he couldn't handle it. I don't actually think he'll go in for the next two debates - he's laid the groundwork with the debates/moderators are biased, and that his mic was sabotaged. He just has to wait a few more days, then make-up some paranoid shit about the town-hall style, and he'll quit it.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

RCP's battleground map is ridiculously conservative. Just look at the number of swing states:


As well as "lean" states like New Jersey and Texas.

RCP's numbers were wayyyy off in 2012.

 

[PBY]

The debate almost doesn't even matter anymore.

This is the Machado news cycle, and it's a kill shot imo

 

[AniHawk]

Did we discuss this?

Sean T RCP-
LATimes tracking shows nudge toward Trump. Only one day post-debate, but *if *others are similar she is in deep trouble.


Fwiw morning consult makes more sense to me

in addition to everyone else:

the la times poll is a weekly average. so if you see movement, it might not be that trump is gaining, but maybe a really strong day for hillary left the average and was replaced by a slightly weaker day.

 

[User 463088]

RCP's numbers were wayyyy off in 2012.

I mean, they do just do a simple average, but their issue is what they do or don't include. Their front page is pretty much Drudge Light most of the time, though.