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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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balladofwindfishes
Member
ffs how irresponsible can Fox News be in their efforts to deflect away from Trump's disaster of a news cycle?
Naming and pointing out exactly who managed Clinton's devices on their front page for all to see.
She did nothing wrong! She bought electronics for Hillary to use! And now this poor woman will probably be harassed until the end of time by paranoid idiots. It's literally a story about nothing. Seriously. They spend a paragraph on how Hillary spilled coffee on her blackberry and this woman had to find a new one. This is apparently news that's more important than a massive melt down during the most watched debate in history. And it's worth singling out an innocent woman, circling her in a picture and naming her specifically.
Gross
She knew sexism was going to come up at some point, I think she just didn't expect it to be a slam dunk end to an amazing night.
The question was perfectly timed to leave the debate with a new story and a horrible impression of Trump and sexism.
Naming and pointing out exactly who managed Clinton's devices on their front page for all to see.
She did nothing wrong! She bought electronics for Hillary to use! And now this poor woman will probably be harassed until the end of time by paranoid idiots. It's literally a story about nothing. Seriously. They spend a paragraph on how Hillary spilled coffee on her blackberry and this woman had to find a new one. This is apparently news that's more important than a massive melt down during the most watched debate in history. And it's worth singling out an innocent woman, circling her in a picture and naming her specifically.
Gross
She knew sexism was going to come up at some point, I think she just didn't expect it to be a slam dunk end to an amazing night.
The question was perfectly timed to leave the debate with a new story and a horrible impression of Trump and sexism.
Only 3 weeks left until the last debate.
I mean, they might get him to watch the debate again and get him to try to act less goofy in the reaction shots but he's still going to get rattled and turn into primary Trump.
He might know slightly more about policy, but it's doubtful at this point.
The town hall obviously has its own minefields (facing a citizen who will ask him a tough question).
538's model has gone full derp mode over the past couple of weeks with doing absurd shit like...
- Weighing landline only polls the highest in various states like Colorado. Landline polls are universally considered garbage.
- Giving a freakish amount of weight to outlierish polls like the Selzer poll that had Trump +2. That ONE poll dropped Clinton 7% in their model. No single poll should have that kind of effect
- Seemingly downplaying good Clinton polls like last week's Monmouth poll of Florida. At the time of release it was the most recent poll of that state and it was from what 538 rates an "A+" pollster yet it was only the 7th highest weighed poll in their florida sample below far lower rated polls that weren't proper live phone polls and such... What??
- And of course Nate Silver being a smug asshole on social media whenever numerous credible people critique him. His responses basically amount to, "Be quiet, I'm smarter than you." or, "Everyone is just in denial and playing catch-up to us."
I'm tempted to start "fivethirtynine.com" and have the tag-line be "538 electoral votes and an actual good model." Model would just be an aggregator of all the other models.
Because everyone knows by now that that is where the obvious sexism is. Even Trump knew, which was why he switched to 'stamina' away from 'looks'.
Which is why you have all these people who post, "She has a fake smile", "She's cold and calculated", etc. They know if they comment on her clothes or looks, they'll be outed as sexist. So instead they divert to a different visual criticism, one they can use their emotions as a shield for. The irony is of course they are doing the same thing Trump is doing.
shinra-bansho
Member
Nobel Prize Winner Joseph Stiglitz also thought that Hugo Chavez's Venezuela was a winner. That turned out well.
Nobel Prize Winner Barack Obama will pass the TPP in his lame duck session anyway.
Backed by 14 other former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Nobel Prize Winner Barack Obama will pass the TPP in his lame duck session anyway.
Backed by 14 other former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Hydrophobic
Member
Wait, did he double down again today?
Deets.
sazzy
Member
Forbes editor on morning joe:
-trump is worth $3.7B
-absolutely no way over $10B+ as claimed by camp
-very little income
-lots of overseas assets, like eastern europe
-lost over $800 million in value over the last year
-18 of 27 major assets declined in value over last year
-they've tracked his wealth over 30 years or so
-rule of thumb: trump exaggerates numbers by a factor of 3
-trump is worth $3.7B
-absolutely no way over $10B+ as claimed by camp
-very little income
-lots of overseas assets, like eastern europe
-lost over $800 million in value over the last year
-18 of 27 major assets declined in value over last year
-they've tracked his wealth over 30 years or so
-rule of thumb: trump exaggerates numbers by a factor of 3
balladofwindfishes
Member
He also has hard, deep, unbreakable blue states like New Jersey, Delaware and Rhode Island at 85% (or lower), but hard right states like West Virginia are at 99% for Trump.
Overall, the win percents for hard red states are higher than the win percents for hard blue states, and this is slightly tweaking Hillary's chances down for no reason at all.
And it's the perfect way to make the graph look tighter too. Because whose going to look at Delaware and why Trump has almost a 20% chance of winning it?
Now I'm not saying he's doing this on purpose, but... it's just kind of weird, right?
Overall, the win percents for hard red states are higher than the win percents for hard blue states, and this is slightly tweaking Hillary's chances down for no reason at all.
And it's the perfect way to make the graph look tighter too. Because whose going to look at Delaware and why Trump has almost a 20% chance of winning it?
Now I'm not saying he's doing this on purpose, but... it's just kind of weird, right?
sazzy
Member
according to Kayleigh::
-she threatened to kill a judge in Venezuela
-thin is part of contract with pageant
-everybody does it
-she's lying about the nicknames
-Trump is actually very good towards women
There's something going on, folks. There's something going on. /s
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Well if we're talking averages of Evs it makes sense.
User 463088
Banned
Everyone needs to watch this
http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word#
Select the video "When the class President debated the class clown."
http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word#
Select the video "When the class President debated the class clown."
Oh boy that first point.
As someone who only started watching MSNBC this election cycle I rather enjoy Lawrence O'Donnell.
The 14 chairs with such heavy intellectuals like Gregory "it's irrational for CEO's not to loot" Mankiw and Austan "Subprime mortgages are good for minorites" Goolsbee.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I was half joking about a conspiracy.
It's just a weird model. I've never even seen a a poll from Delaware, let alone enough of them that it sways Trump's chances by 20% in the state that will pretty clearly, without a doubt, go blue. He has a better chance of winning Delaware than Hillary does winning Texas, apparently.
User 463088
Banned
He can be great. Like most people, he can also be kinda not great. But this was him 100% on point, and it was incredibly damning to Trump and his entire campaign. The way he ties Trump to people who engage in spousal abuse is just...it makes so much sense. And then referencing "She deserves it." Just actual, honest to god decent punditry for a change.
The way the Trump people cling to that USC poll like it's the last cocktail at a White Party gives me life.
Edit: probably not a good idea to use the phrase "White Party" and "Trump people" in the same sentence....
Trump himself literally cited a Drudge online poll at his rally. They're holding onto anything they fucking can.
User 463088
Banned
I'd take a four-point bounce. That'd be pretty damn nice, even if it dampens from its peak.
====
Obama was on Steve Harvey's radio show this morning. Some choice quotes, courtesy of Jonathan Capehart:
balladofwindfishes
Member
Obama going all out.
Everything he's ever worked for is on the line.
Everything he's ever worked for is on the line.
shinra-bansho
Member
Oh, good. I'm glad we all agree that randomly name dropping well-known economists doesn't actually mean anything.
And we can go back to calling dumb millennials dumb, as tabled on the agenda.
And we can go back to calling dumb millennials dumb, as tabled on the agenda.
User 463088
Banned
Morning Consult has been very bullish on Hillary the entire cycle. They've also been one of the pollsters that has Obama's approval tied or slightly underwater. So, I consider a gain there to be big!
Do you need a hug?
Sure I can agree that your original comment about millenials doesn't do justice to the criticism of tpp.
User 463088
Banned
NO TPP!
Or maybe SOME TPP!
Or maybe SOME TPP!
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
This is why I don't bed-wet over either/or campaign strategies and, say, repeatedly complain how she "blew her lead" in August "taking off" to fundraise. Just as an example totally off the top of my head. This isn't an election that will be lost in the margins of campaigning. She nailed every major traditional inflection point, she has a bajillion dollars and her GOTV is best-in-class. At every significant interval she has proven how stark and clear the choice is. No campaign is perfect and you can always find mistakes and room for improvement in the post-mortem.
But if she loses, that's the country we live in.
sazzy
Member
Conspiracy theory about Hillary signaling to Holt with 'nose touches'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XSuG5aCFGs
Its entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XSuG5aCFGs
Its entertaining.
shinra-bansho
Member
I need a Xanax, but the TPP made it too expensive.
Funnily, I actually understand there are criticisms of the TPP, and recognise, some of them, as valid. I still think it will be of net benefit to the global economy.
I highly doubt that random idiots yelling at Obama during his convention speech or putting tape over their faces so they can finally shut up to everyone's relief, have done so before forming their conclusion that it's a terrible very bad horrible thing. Particularly dumb millennials.
Actually, that basically applies to trade liberalisation in general. The main problem has been a failure to take care of those that lose out. But no one's interested in thinking about actual solutions when there's signs to hold and noisemakers to twirl.
nature boy
Member
Pack it up, Emperor Trump won! #MAGA
sazzy
Member
his shattered ego can't handle losing to a girl
I want a journalist to ask him if he knows those polls can be easily rigged so he can go on a rant about how Hillary is going to rig the election again.
I'm expecting his concession speech to just be "RIOT" as he puts on a purge mask and fire an AK-47 into the air.
User 463088
Banned
You know how you can tell which person didn't win?
It's the one who is talking about how they won bigly.
It's the one who is talking about how they won bigly.
nature boy
Member
Why? He'll just say it's "tens of thousands of people" vs "poll with hundreds by CNN who doesn't like me and I don't watch". He's completely dumbed down reality.
I'll say it again, Johnson on Hardball? Bloodbath.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Yep. Hillary hasn't mentioned at all anything about winning anything. While Trump is up there announcing to everyone using made up polls to try and convince people he won.
And he's coming across as super desperate. This is reaching "please clap" levels of embarrassment for him.
The fact that he lost is bothering him. Hopefully he's mentally prepared for the heavy loss he'll have to live with in November.
Oh, and the history books are going to have a fun time with him. Either he gets brought up as a "controversial" candidate and they discuss his racism, or he gets in a tiny footnote on the chapter discussing Hillary's presidency. Either way, he's a big loser.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
He was working the spin room after the debate, everyone was equal parts surprised and embarrassed for him.
Boy Trump's old tweets give a good look at his thought process.
Not sure why the article used the January one twice, but eh.
http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/02/why-i-love-donald-trumps-terrible-old-tweets.html
Not sure why the article used the January one twice, but eh.
http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/02/why-i-love-donald-trumps-terrible-old-tweets.html
balladofwindfishes
Member
Two of those are the same date!
But also two of them are only a month and a half apart lol
But also two of them are only a month and a half apart lol
dynamitejim
Member
You know someone's too deep in the bubble when simple debate prep looks like a conspiracy.
"How could she possibly have answers to all these questions?!?!? RIIIIIIGGGGGEED!1111!"
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
With Melania in tow was the funniest part. Why was she there, why was she walking a few steps behind him.
User 463088
Banned
Because women should always walk a few steps behind the Donald.
User 463088
Banned
Does it rhyme with maggot?
I watched this last night randomly on a plane. The twist ending on "she deserves it" was pretty great. Not what I was expecting that to mean after seeing them on screen.
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