Regional Performance is Relatively Stable
So the consensus is Florida is always changing. Well it is, but even so, the “states” of Florida perform very consistently.
For the sake of space, let’s look at Florida in three regions. I-10 (5 North Florida markets), I-4 and SW Florida (Orlando, Tampa, and Ft Myers), and SE Florida (Miami and West Palm).
If you compare 2000 and 2012, despite the massive changes in the electorate, the vote share in these regions is absurdly similar.
In North Florida, both Gore and Obama 2012 received 40.4% of the 2-way vote. On our best day, in 2008, we got to 42. On our worst, 2004, we got 38.5%. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win between 38-40%.
Along the I-4 corridor – adding Fort Myers, Gore won 47.4%, and Obama 12 won 48%. Our best day got to 49.6%, and our worst, 44.8%.
And in SE Florida, same story: Gore was 59.8%, while Obama 12 was 60.8%. In 08, we were 60.5%, and in 2004, we dropped to 57.7%.
In other words, even as the state margin ranged from Obama +3 in 2008 to Bush +5 in 2004, there just was very small movement within regions.
Let’s project forward to 2016. If you assume HRC gets the best share in each “region” of the state, her upper end is 51.6%, her lower end is 47.5%. In other words, forget what the polls say, based on the history of the last four elections, we are talking about a state that might have, tops, 5-6% of real swing vote.
And note- I understand that this is more than a 2-way race, but it doesn't change the conclusion - Florida is close.
