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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
- Thread starter Crayons
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Did she cough?
Reagan was easily the best Republican President in the past 60 years. He's actually the only one since Eisenhower that you can objectively say was a success.
Bush 1 was a gentleman but he took Reagan's roaring economy and left it in a recession in 4 short years.
His son was a colossal failure by almost every metric other than empathy compared to the republican ilk of 2016.
Nixon passed some meaningful regulations so that's a bonus ideologically but he also left office in shame and with a sputtering economy.
Ford was the king of Meh.
Eisenhower and Roosevelt were successful for a variety of different reasons.
And Coolidge is the damn modern father of nutjob libertarian economic theories and responsible for both the Great Depression and (by his legacy) the Great Recession. I rank coolidge bottom 2 for sure.
California has a ballot measure this year that would touch on some of this.
California Proposition 63, Background Checks for Ammunition Purchases and Large-Capacity Ammunition Magazine Ban:
* Requires individuals to pass a background check and obtain Department of Justice authorization to purchase ammunition.
* Prohibits possession of large-capacity ammunition magazines, and requires their disposal, as specified.
* Requires most ammunition sales be made through licensed ammunition vendors and reported to Department of Justice.
* Requires lost or stolen firearms and ammunition be reported to law enforcement.
* Prohibits persons convicted of stealing a firearm from possessing firearms.
* Establishes new procedures for enforcing laws prohibiting firearm possession.
* Requires Department of Justice to provide information about prohibited persons to federal National Instant Criminal Background Check System.
I love Seth. The TRUE king of late night. Absolutely wonderful video.
Dominican Power
Member
Super delegate/lobbyist? What the fuck Democrats?
It's not even shocking. Just typical bumbling mixed with taking advantage of what is usually an opaque process.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Oh god, the ether.
JesseEwiak
Member
Since most of the goals conservatives have I see as antithetical to my core moral values, shockingly, I don't consider someone who moved America toward those conservative goals as a "good" President anymore than I'm sure somebody who truly believes in pure libertarianim thought FDR was an awesome President.
Hell, most of Reagan's economic success can be pointed at as a result of Jimmy Carter's Fed Chairman and Keynesian deficit spending.
aspiegamer
Member
The Reagan that Republicans worship today is not the same one that was President. Well that's not entirely true--"trickle down" as bullshit wealth policy and "government is evil" as philosophy have endured. That's his actual legacy. But much of what Reagan actually did is completely at odds to what current mainstream republicanism is, and much of what they preach is contradictory to Reagan's actions. He practically invented federal debt as we see it today, as one quick example.
To translate it to gaming lingo, I'd call it Dat Feel Of Reagan. Seriously, get rid of the wealth disparity trends and bullshit about government being out to ruin your life and he could pass as a centrist democrat today.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Safe Republican (2)
North Dakota - Doug Burgum (R) vs. Marvin Nelson (D) - Republicans rule the Dakotas with an iron fist as of now, although they are sometimes susceptible to electing Democrats down the ticket on occasion (Senator Heidi Heitkamp comes to mind). All the same, no reason to believe this is remotely competitive. And if you think that's bad...
Utah - Gary Herbert (R) vs. Mike Weinholtz (D) - Yeah, even if Clinton were winning the presidential election by 25 points and Democrats were swept into all levels of power, Utah's gubernatorial race would remain firmly Republican.
Tossup (1)
Indiana - John Gregg (D) vs. Eric Holcomb (R) - The incumbent governor, Mike Pence vacated his candidacy to strap himself onboard the Titanic, or should I say the Trump campaign. This gave Gregg a huge advantage as he'd already been in the race for several months whereas Republicans had to scramble for a replacement candidate. Holcomb however seems relatively inoffensive, and Indiana is hardly known for electing Democrats making it hard to see an easy Gregg victory. Gregg's candidacy shouldn't be underestimated, however - he lost to Pence in 2012 by a much smaller-than-expected margin, and sharing the ticket with Evan Bayh will only serve as a boost to his candidacy.
Lean Democratic (5)
Missouri - Chris Koster (D) vs. Eric Greitens (R) - While Missouri - a former bellwether state - has trended Republican very quickly over the past few years, they seem to like their Democratic governors well enough. Koster has maintained a consistent lead in polling, even as it's ranged from small to large, leaving me with the impression he can safely be called the favorite, even if the race can not exactly be called safe.
North Carolina - Roy Cooper (D) vs. Pat McCrory (R) - If there were a premier battleground for gubernatorial contests in 2016 (as there are so few to begin with), North Carolina would have to be it. McCrory's "bathroom bill" has backfired tremendously on the imperiled governor, angering liberal activists and driving businesses out of state. Cooper on the other hand has a solid record as a popular Attorney General for the state, serving since 2001 - he even ran unopposed in 2012. Most Republicans privately concede this one has slipped away.
New Hampshire - Collin Van Ostern (D) vs. Chris Sununu (R) - I admittedly don't know too much about the state of affairs in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, an open contest after sitting governor Maggie Hassan decided to jump trains and challenge Kelly Ayotte for the state's Senate seat. Assigning it as Lean D can be seen as more of a gut instinct than anything, as the race has only been polled very lightly.
Vermont - Sue Minter (D) vs. Phil Scott (R) - You would think that Vermont, one of the bluest states in the nation would be a lock for Democrats, but the state has flirted with Republicans at the executive level. Scott is the sitting Lieutenant Governor, and has proven quite popular swimming against the tide. If anyone could make this a race, it would be him - but I'd be cautious about assuming too much of his chances running for the most significant statewide position in Vermont.
West Virginia - Jim Justice (D) vs. Bill Cole (R) - A coal baron versus a Cole, and West Virginians would walk across hot coals to vote Republican these days. To put this in perspective, if Donald Trump were to lose in a 1972/1984-style blowout in which he only carried one state, West Virginia would probably be it. All the same, the Democratic Party was in full control of state politics here until very recently, but the tables flipped very quickly and most assumed it would only be a matter of time before Republicans took the governor's mansion. Justice, however has maintained a solid lead in polling, and Republican groups have gone completely dark in this race. For now, it would seem West Virginia Democrats have been given a lifeline.
Likely Democratic (1)
Montana - Steve Bullock (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) - Aside from the at-large Congressional district and the presidential elections, Republicans have only won a single statewide race in Montana in the past fourteen years, the open Senate contest in 2014. While the state is quite Republican at the presidential level, Montana Democrats make for an extremely effective (and surprisingly liberal!) state party, and no one seems to be taking this race too seriously. Fun fact: There are currently five Democratic Senators elected in states that Romney carried in 2012, and all five of those states have a gubernatorial election this year. This may provide a glimpse at the 2018 midterm election, which has the makings of a bad night for the Democrats.
Safe Democratic (3)
Delaware - John Carney (D) vs. Colin Bonini (R) - Snoozer, much like the state of Delaware. Sorry Delawareans.
Oregon - Kate Brown (D) vs. Bud Pierce (R) - Brown looked vulnerable at one point as she ascended to the governor's seat through some rather unusual circumstances, but otherwise the race seems safe.
Washington - Jay Inslee (D) vs. Bill Bryant (R) - The Republican nominee here doesn't even have a Wikipedia page, which should indicate how seriously the Republicans are taking this race.
Presidential Ratings (last updated 9/6/2016)
Senate Ratings (last updated 9/13/2016)
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Aaron. It's 3:30 in Minneapolis. Stop making breakdowns of important congressional races, even if they're good!
sazzy
Member
Billionaires Sheldon Adelson, Joe Ricketts Plan Donations to Donald Trumps Campaign
Adelson plans to spend $45 million to boost GOP, including $5 million for Trump; Ricketts to give at least $1 million to Trump group
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...+Campaign&gws_rd=cr&ei=DQXhV9XzBsS30gSy3pfgAQ
Adelson plans to spend $45 million to boost GOP, including $5 million for Trump; Ricketts to give at least $1 million to Trump group
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...+Campaign&gws_rd=cr&ei=DQXhV9XzBsS30gSy3pfgAQ
*snorts hopium*
nature boy
Member
45-40-10-4 4-way
https://www.scribd.com/document/324...-12-9-18?secret_password=7XMK1GedD7FjULJCawY1
P.S.: Switched to LV this week.
let this be the week where things start normalizing towards a +5 lead again.
shinra-bansho
Member
That's just dumb. It just sounds like a completely different name. John Cucksich makes more sense.
benjipwns
Banned
That is a way better one, I should try to get it trending over the other one.
Many of these I don't mind switching two guys order, like swapping Eisenhower and Coolidge or Obama and Kennedy, they're close enough that sure whichever. Like Ford and Bush, it's like, I dunno man, Ford at least was shorter and stuff.
Harding
Coolidge
Eisenhower
Reagan
Ford
Bush
Bush
Nixon
Hoover
Carter
Clinton
Kennedy
Obama
Truman
Johnson
Roosevelt
Woodrow Wilson is the worst President in history. I doubt Trump could even top him.
Not joking. Probably.
I hope.
what did john cusack ever do to anyone. i mean, aside from 2012.
benjipwns
Banned
he roots for both the cubs and white sox
down with john cucksich
benjipwns
Banned
hillary viciously attacks john cusack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkwwEPr-iyM
that should be the reason i tell people i'm not voting for hillary is she lied about being a lifelong yankees fan
and retroactively i should have told people i wasn't voting for obama because he couldn't name any of his favorite players on his favorite team (white sox iirc?)
that should be the reason i tell people i'm not voting for hillary is she lied about being a lifelong yankees fan
and retroactively i should have told people i wasn't voting for obama because he couldn't name any of his favorite players on his favorite team (white sox iirc?)
cartoon_soldier
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yes. The state polls are also survey monkey though I guess.
I still can't believe the lead Trump has had in last few Ohio polls.
nature boy
Member
State polls are done by Marist.
NBC/WSJ is done by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Hart Research (D).
cartoon_soldier
Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/chuck-schumer-senate-democrats-228384
Schumer had 27 million dollars for his campaign on hand. What the Fuck.
He will still have 20 million.
Schumer had 27 million dollars for his campaign on hand. What the Fuck.
He will still have 20 million.
benjipwns
Banned
New York Senator who won't have any actual competition. They always raise quite a bit and then transfer it to others. He must be holding out just in case or was waiting to see who eventual candidates were.
He raised $28 million in 2014. And $22 million in 2012. Neither of which he was running in. $21 million in 2010.
Gillibrand has raised
2010: $14 million
2012: $16 million
2014: $35 million
2016: $25 million
2012 was her election year.
haha from the end of that story:
He raised $28 million in 2014. And $22 million in 2012. Neither of which he was running in. $21 million in 2010.
Gillibrand has raised
2010: $14 million
2012: $16 million
2014: $35 million
2016: $25 million
2012 was her election year.
haha from the end of that story:
Yeah, you'll really need that guys.
I'll take it.
Fucking Johnson with 10 points tho.
Nothing like watching new FFXV gameplay footage on YouTube with a Trump ad playing beforehand. Ugh
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
That's not really the fault of the current president, more the result of the business cycles and whoever was president a few years earlier.
User 463088
Banned
So, that Survey Monkey poll is pretty good for her. She hits 50 in the 2 way again, which it's been a while since that has happened. She's gone from a 2 point lead to a 5 point lead in the 4 way. I think it just reinforces the idea that last week was a shitty week for a lot of reasons.
Finale Fireworker
Member
nature boy
Member
Mook raising the bedwetting levels?
Quick donate!!!
User 463088
Banned
Ya, but is it good news for John McCain?
Honestly, after hearing Nate yest his model makes more sense.
He addressed that it seems more pro Trump bc it bakes in way more uncertainty than some other models.
He said he felt that it accounted for equal parts a Trump win and a Hill landslide
FloydtheFathead
Member
it's probably going to go back to trump +1 or clinton +1 in a couple days. there was probably one especially harsh day where it just threw everything off for the entire week.
Officerrob
Banned
They actually wasted money polling New York?
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