Support NeoGAF

[Deleted member 231381]

https://twitter.com/nbeaudrot/status/781540265056010240

Interesting analysis

Does it need more of an explanation than his 9th point?

9. Some evidence that remaining undecided/3p voters are disproportionately D voters who really, Really, REALLY dislike HRC

Isn't this exactly what the polls are telling us? Trump usually remains roughly level in polling - he wobbles around either side of 44 or so depending on the sample and had risen a bit when some of the Johnson fade set in, but not much. Meanwhile, Clinton has gone from averaging +8 to averaging +1 in this race, and the only difference between the polls for the former and the polls for the later is a marked decrease in likelihood to vote for Democratic voters. The story seems pretty simple to me: lots of Democrats really do *not* like Clinton; and the problem is concentrated amongst the Democratic demographics that most liked Obama, which is roughly three demographics: crusty old ex-industrial white guys, millennials, and minorities.

Like sometimes I think we lose track of the fact that Clinton would be the most disliked presidential candidate in history if she wasn't running against the man who is. People really do not like her; and so it makes her a poorly performing candidate. Generic D against Trump probably would be hitting the +8 margins Beaudrot highlights, because that is exactly the margin Clinton hits at her peak.

 

[SexyFish]

Clinton campaign responded to the Trump-Cuba allegations.

“Trump’s business with Cuba appears to have broken the law, flouted U.S. foreign policy, and is in complete contradiction to Trump’s own repeated, public statements that he had been offered opportunities to invest in Cuba but passed them up. This latest report shows once again that Trump will always put his own business interest ahead of the national interest - and has no trouble lying about it.”

Trump Said He Would Earn Millions Of Dollars By Doing Business In Cuba But Would Lose His Self-Respect. “If he were to bypass the U.S. embargo this way, Trump said, ‘I could earn millions of dollars in Cuba. But I prefer to lose those millions than to lose my self-respect.’” [New York Post, 7/11/99]

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/brie...ed-violation-of-the-u-s-embargo-against-cuba/

More in-depth at the link.

 

[whyamihere]

GBA Strategies, New Hampshire

Hillary: 43
Trump: 37
Johnson: 11
Stein: 4

Hassan: 47
Ayotte: 44

Important:

GBA Strategies surveyed 600 likely voters on land lines and cell phones from Sept. 25 to 27. Two-thirds of the interviews were conducted before Monday night's presidential debate.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

GBA Strategies, New Hampshire

Hillary: 43
Trump: 37
Johnson: 11
Stein: 4

Hassan: 47
Ayotte: 44

Important:

Interesting.

Gotta admit: Ras is always republican biased but it does an amazing job of catching sudden changes in polling

 

[Deleted member 231381]

GBA Strategies, New Hampshire

Hillary: 43
Trump: 37
Johnson: 11
Stein: 4

Hassan: 47
Ayotte: 44

Important:

I have no idea why anyone would commission a pollster to run their sample over a period that involves such an obvious change in the dataset. You can just throw results like this in the bin if they don't have day-by-day crosstabs.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Going with "I meant to do that".

"Gary, we just have to wait for it to blow over and it will--"



https://twitter.com/GovGaryJohnson/status/781559655839522817

It's comical how awful these third-party candidates are.

 

[B-Dubs]

It's comical how awful these third-party candidates are.

Sadly, both Johnson and Stein are improvements on those who came before. And in Johnson's case, those who will come after.

 

[Blader]

House/Senate pass Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act bill.

Obama vetoes the bill, saying that it would open up US interests abroad to prosecution.

House/Senate ignore Obama, and override the veto.

TODAY:



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/mitch-mcconnell-saudi-9-11-bill-228903

Fucking LOL

If I knew the potential downsides of this bill before the Senate voted to override the veto, then there's no reason they shouldn't have known. Own up to it, for fuck's sake.

 

[SexyFish]

Eichenwald on MSNBC saying that Kellyanne Conway confessed on The View. Hoping that this gets traction on other stations.

 

[Iolo]

Like sometimes I think we lose track of the fact that Clinton would be the most disliked presidential candidate in history if she wasn't running against the man who is.

Crab we can't lose track of this, you mention it every five posts or so.

 

[Boke1879]

Eichenwald on MSNBC saying that Kellyanne Conway confessed on The View. Hoping that this gets traction on other stations.

We'll see. Her comments don't help and Trump lawyering up so quick didn't help.

 

[GregLombardi]

If there is a turnout problem that will be Hillary's campaign's fault. They need to use their ground game to make sure that there isn't.

 

[plagiarize]

Eichenwald on MSNBC saying that Kellyanne Conway confessed on The View. Hoping that this gets traction on other stations.

Confessed to what?

 

[SexyFish]

Confessed to what?

Trump may have gave money to Cuba.

 

[Oblivion]

Confessed to what?

Trump spending money in Cuba during the embargo.

 

[whyamihere]

wat wat wat

@davecatanese
"How does heroin work with all these beautiful lakes and trees?" -- Trump in Bedford, NH

 

[User 463088]

Crab we can't lose track of this, you mention it every five posts or so.

 

[Fragamemnon]

wat wat wat

that line hurts trump more in NH than the cuban thing hurts him in FL.

 

[Rebel Leader]

We'll see. Her comments don't help and Trump lawyering up so quick didn't help.

When did trump lawyer up?

 

[Boke1879]

If there is a turnout problem that will be Hillary's campaign's fault. They need to use their ground game to make sure that there isn't.

She has a great ground game and some of the best Stumpers around. I personally wouldn't worry about it until closer to Election Day as a voter. October will be a very critical month.

IMO if you're a dem voter and you'd rather sit at home or protest vote and risk the country to a racist sexist lunatic then so be it.

I don't give a fuck about "liking" the candidate. I care about policies which she has put forth which any left leaning dem should vote for. But we'all see.

 

[Aaron Strife]

wat wat wat

I don't... I... Why?

 

[kevin1025]

wat wat wat

He's still having trouble with location-based issues.

He should really wake up and sniff the roses.

 

[plagiarize]

Trump may have gave money to Cuba.

I'm familiar with the story. But like, he's accused of lots of things, so I didn't know which one she was confessing to

Also I just read this piece of hilarity.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/why...-about-hillary-clinton-dominating-the-debate/

In fact, I believe the 2 to 4 percent gain for Clinton predicted by FiveThirtyEight and other pundits in the next week will fail to materialize. Until they start taking emotional engagement into consideration, pundits will continue to be wrong about debate outcomes, and we should question their initial predictions.

LOLOLOL

All because polls open to abuse put Trump as the winner.

 

[Boke1879]

When did trump lawyer up?

Ok maybe poor choice of words but I believe he made a lawyer respond to the initial article

 

[shem935]

wat wat wat

Lol. Only inner cities do drugs yeah?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Crab we can't lose track of this, you mention it every five posts or so.

I take my job as the voice of reason very seriously.

 

[Geg]

I'm glad we're back to Trump saying absolutely insane things every time he's in public like in the first couple of weeks after the conventions

 

[Dan]

Considering this vote was 97-1; gonna say republicans and democrat alignment had nothing to do with it.

True, I think for Democrats they've be afraid of being portrayed as unsympathetic to 9/11 victims and families, but Republicans have danced with that devil before over minor spending bills. In this case for them I think it's about kicking Saudi Arabia, not much else.

 

[thebloo]

I honestly think Trump is afraid of Hillary. Or at least absolutely baffled that she's unfazed by him. It's not even (just) that she's a woman. He seems to hold back. And I don't think it's him being polite. Just scared.

 

[SexyFish]

When did trump lawyer up?

Think he is referring to this.

Kurt Eichenwald
‏@kurteichenwald
When Trump's lawyer threatened us on #TrumpInCuba, saying docs didnt exist, @Newsweek offered to post em all online.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

wat wat wat

Well, that's a nice way to lose NH.

...I think Hillary broke him

 

[kevin1025]

Think he is referring to this.

Haha, what a backfire.

 

[Mighty Chin]

In the town hall, the candidates can wander around if they want while talking, so it's going to be interesting to see how Trump carries himself



I'm shocked Obama's judgment was the correct choice in the end. Absolutely shocked.

I bet he's furious at senate Democrats

Seriously what does Pelosi have to say about this? This is fucking embarrassing!!!!

 

[Boke1879]

I honestly think Trump is afraid of Hillary. Or at least absolutely baffled that she's unfazed by him. It's not even (just) that she's a woman. He seems to hold back. And I don't think it's him being polite. Just scared.

I think it's anyone that can go toe to toe with him. Warren is someone who can jump in the mud with him. Its why he keeps name calling her.

But Hilary gets under his skin in a different way. She's above it most of the time

 

[plagiarize]

I'm glad we're back to Trump saying absolutely insane things every time he's in public like in the first couple of weeks after the conventions

It really feels like swing voters watched the debate and went 'Oh yeah, shit. How did I forget who Donald Trump really was there for a few weeks?'.

It was great for him when Clinton was out of the public eye fundraising, and they weren't both on a stage together where it's really hard to grade on a curve...

but those days are behind us.

 

[jiggle]

I honestly think Trump is afraid of Hillary. Or at least absolutely baffled that she's unfazed by him. It's not even (just) that she's a woman. He seems to hold back. And I don't think it's him being polite. Just scared.

coward before a true alpha

 

[RustyNails]

wat wat wat

At this point he's just being controversial because no one will look at his past comments/Cuba stuff.

 

[thebloo]

Also, a read on the Machado segment from the debate.

She says fat, he doesn't blink, she says Ms. Piggy, same. But when she say Ms. Housekeeping, that's when he snaps into "where did you find that?"

He doesn't care until that point.

 

[Beer Monkey]

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/why...-about-hillary-clinton-dominating-the-debate/

Fucking The Ohio State University. Jesus.

In fact, I believe the 2 to 4 percent gain for Clinton predicted by FiveThirtyEight and other pundits in the next week will fail to materialize. Until they start taking emotional engagement into consideration, pundits will continue to be wrong about debate outcomes, and we should question their initial predictions.

What an idiot. A 2-4 point gain was already baked in regardless of the debate because of regression back to the mean. Predicting that wouldn't happen makes you a moron.

If I had this jackass for a prof he'd hate me.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

 

[Bowdz]

Lmao, perfection.

 

[Bronx-Man]

That's the candidate that made the kessel run in 14 parsecs, mind you

 

[User 463088]

Fucking The Ohio State University. Jesus.

Hey

No.

 

[Trouble]

That's the candidate that made the kessel run in 14 seconds, mind you

TWELVE!

 

[HanShotFirst]

That's the candidate that made the kessel run in 14 seconds, mind you

12 parsecs!

....14....

 

[studyguy]

Lmao, perfection.

I can't tell if this is supposed to be a jab at Clinton or if it's supposed to be ironic since the garbage was the objectively better ship, the Millennium Falcon...

Either way, fucking Star Wars

 

[Bowdz]

I can't tell if this is supposed to be a jab at Clinton or if it's supposed to be ironic since the garbage was the objectively better ship, the Millennium Falcon...

I think it just sums up what a lot of millennials are probably feeling.

 

[Iolo]

12 parsecs!

....14....

You've been lurking for just that opportunity, haven't you!

 

[Aaron Strife]

That's the candidate that made the kessel run in 14 seconds, mind you

12 seconds!

Edit: That's what I get for not refreshing

 

[sphagnum]

But who is Starkiller Base.