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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Clinton at 322 in Nowcast, over 40% chance of winning IA/OH.

Just want polls from those two states now post-debate to complete the picture. (As well as AZ/GA)
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
I'm going to be in Asheville* for my anniversary just before the election.

A day of knocking on doors sounds good to me.

*My family has lived in the area for 4 generations, I don't go *just* for the hipster bullshit. Though, I do like the hipster bullshit.
 

Armaros

Member
I'm going to be in Asheville* for my anniversary just before the election.

A day of knocking on doors sounds good to me.

*My family has lived in the area for 4 generations, I don't go *just* for the hipster bullshit. Though, I do like the hipster bullshit.

Hipster about Hipster Stuff confirmed :^)
 
Surge in non-college whites that didn't vote in 2012 or before has been debunked in the primaries, and the pollsters aren't expecting that in the GE.

Folks who don't vote aren't showing up in November.

There was another piece that went out a couple of weeks ago showing that there wasn't any kind of surge in registrations in counties with large number of NCWs.

I think the bigger problem is that the GOP hasn't proven that they can turn out marginal voters-they've built their turnout machine over the decades to heavily use network effects in populations of high-propensity voters-suburban/exurban educated whites and evangelicals.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Surge in non-college whites that didn't vote in 2012 or before has been debunked in the primaries, and the pollsters aren't expecting that in the GE.

Folks who don't vote aren't showing up in November.

And my guess is those marginal Trump voters are looking more and more likely to stay home. I don't expect Hillary to just pick up support from more marginal dems. I expect the LV screens to start changing radically after that debate.
 

Vyse24

Member
After reading Trump's Twitter, I started signing The Reynolds Pamphlet, this is over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOSCOw50kos

omg, it's happening, Trump is losing control.

xIpLvw7.gif
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Hipster about Hipster Stuff confirmed :^)

When I lived in NYC fucking everyone was going to Asheville all the time. It was weird. I didn't realize it was transformed into a hipster paradise until relatively recently. So I was like "the place with all the closed mills on River Road and the Flea Market at the old amusement park? Why the fuck are you going there?"

That said, it's way nicer now.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That is a massive swing in Nevada's numbers. Excellent.
 
Not to interrupt the Nevada hopium trip; but it seems Newsweek did get DDoS'd yesterday.

The editor-in-chief of Newsweek confirmed Friday that the magazine's website was on the receiving end of a denial-of-service attack Thursday night, following the publication of a story accusing one of Donald Trump's companies of violating the Cuban trade embargo.


link
 

Slizeezyc

Member
So what does Hillary's electoral map look like with Nevada?

Just makes Trump's victory more and more awkward.

Looks something like this:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/d14Zv

A whole lot of running the table in unlikely spots, including Virginia. Or you can put Colorado back on the table and say Virginia is lost. Either way, it's just really long odds based on the long-term state polls from states like Colorado, Virginia, PA.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
And my guess is those marginal Trump voters are looking more and more likely to stay home. I don't expect Hillary to just pick up support from more marginal dems. I expect the LV screens to start changing radically after that debate.

Yep

So what does Hillary's electoral map look like with Nevada?

This is what I think it is now, assuming Trump doesn't have any more meltdowns between now and election day

jyR6x.png


Pessimistic me / regression to the mean me thinks this

xojxX.png


This is what I think we see if the debate 3 goes as well as debate 1

3LyY3.png
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
So what does Hillary's electoral map look like with Nevada?

gGJoE.png


She only needs 1 of:

Omaha district (NE3), Maine (ME3), Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa

Given that I'm not sure Trump can win Colorado, Virgina, PA or NH at this point, it would basically give her the Presidency.

We're at the point with Trump where he has to thread a much harder needle than Mittens did electorally.

If you think Clinton walks away with PA, NH, CO, VA his path becomes really really fucking hard.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Nothing has really changed from months ago. Trump's path to win lies through places like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida, and he has made zero inroads in those places.
 
This is what I think we see if the debate 3 goes as well as debate 1

3LyY3.png

I could see Georgia in this scenario as well. And I would love to see South Carolina as well for an East Coast sweep, but I think it would take another Khan moment plus two more awful debates for it to happen.
 
There was another piece that went out a couple of weeks ago showing that there wasn't any kind of surge in registrations in counties with large number of NCWs.

I think the bigger problem is that the GOP hasn't proven that they can turn out marginal voters-they've built their turnout machine over the decades to heavily use network effects in populations of high-propensity voters-suburban/exurban educated whites and evangelicals.
Yep, it's been debunked. He's essentially took over part of the Republican base and others have fallen in line.

Bush 2004 actually did a good job in turnout, but with the Trump campaign using the RNC resources to do their ground game something has to give in. If she keeps this momentum they're going to have to shift resources to assure the Senate majority.

And my guess is those marginal Trump voters are looking more and more likely to stay home. I don't expect Hillary to just pick up support from more marginal dems. I expect the LV screens to start changing radically after that debate.
Yeah, if the perception is he's losing, his turnout, since it's less organized, will go down.

I'm genuinely concerned about his concession and the effects on the legitimacy of the entire elections and institutions.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Nothing has really changed from months ago. Trump's path to win lies through places like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida, and he has made zero inroads in those places.

I think this is the real answer. His only real hope of the Presidency has been putting into play PA. Given that Virginia and Colorado are moving further away from the Republican party, he needed to flip a traditional D state.

PA, WI, MI. Something had to flip. Simply locking down the two Midwestern swing states while cutting his nose off in the rest of the country was never going to be enough.

He's moved Florida, VA and CO more solidly blue in the process of making OH and IA more favorable to himself. while seriously putting NC in play in the process.

He's opened up more paths to lose the presidency than he has paths to win it, even during the "tightening". He basically created a worse map than Mittens had for himself *and* has no fucking ground game. So swing states like NC with extremely early voting are going to bank 100K-200K votes in Hillary's favor before election day even happens.

If you look at where he is spending his time, it's in states that he has to win that are not enough to get him the presidency. Hillary isn't "giving up" on Ohio. They have just made the calculus that if Hillary wins Ohio she has already won the presidency. It will not be the state that puts her over 270. It'll be a nice state to run up the EC score with, but otherwise inconsequential.
 
Trump's feud with Rosie showed how truly horrible of a person he is:

Listing off people O’Donnell had publicly attacked, Trump said, “Then he attacked Kelly Ripa. And he attacked, she attacked — I guess I could say ‘he.’ It’s so natural. No, it’s so natural.”

In the same speech, Trump also said it was “politically correct bullshit” that people would not call O’Donnell fat.

“This slob, now I’m not allowed to use the word fat,” Trump said. “They say, ‘he used the fat word.’ I know much worse words. It’s funny, I called her a degenerate, I called her the worst things, nobody cared.”

He added later, “So I hit her hard, right between those ugly ffff– eyes,” he added. “But I go on the Today Show and Meredith Vieira, ‘Donald is true?’ – this is like two weeks ago I was supposed to talking about The Apprentice. She said, ‘is it true that you called Rosie crude.’ I said, ‘no, I called her a degenerate. I didn’t call her crude, it’s not strong enough.’ She goes, ‘but did you call her fat?’ I said, ‘let me ask you a question Meredith. Is she fat?’ ‘I’d rather not comment.’ Can you believe this bullshit. This is politically correct bullshit, OK? So I had fun.”

Trump also made fun of O’Donnell’s children for telling her that he had called her the “F” word.

“‘But, he called me the ‘F’ word.’ Do you believe this, this is what she comments,” stated Trump. “She said her children came up to her, ‘mommy, mommy’ and you know her wife is a very beautiful women. I go, ‘mommy, mommy he called you the ‘F’ word.’ Now, I know two ‘F’ words and one is worse than the word ‘fat.’ Now, I would never call her fat.”

In a partial clip of the same speech uncovered earlier in the year by BuzzFeed News, Trump also savagely mocked O’Donnell’s depression, boasting how he used O’Donnell’s mental illness to end his feud with her.

“I said, ‘I think I can cure here depression,’ — most of you heard this. ‘If she stopped looking in the mirror, I think she’d stop being so depressed,’” Trump said.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkacz...ie-odonnell-he?utm_term=.uyZ7ZrQox#.vuy1mk7oX
 

spock

Member
Just a quick anecdotal update from NH. A few folks who where talking pro Trump in the past have recently been talking about reasons they cant vote for him. These are mostly folks under 40. I might be talking to some older folks this weekend who were pro Trump so I'll see how things have changed with them.

Also Hillary has really been upping her ground game her in NH these past few weeks. I see Trump trying to do the same but not getting anywhere near the level of Hillary's team. Hillary's team is like a fucking machine and really well organized, always having something going on to engage or recruit, etc.

On a related note I have seen some Trump sign defacement. On someones private property (someone had to be next to the persons front porch to cut the sign) which while funny isn't cool. They cut the T out of this really large Trump banner so it would say "vote for rump".
 
Gingrich Boldly Labels Alicia Machado 'The New Benghazi'

In a Thursday interview, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich slammed Hillary Clinton's resurfacing of Donald Trump's comments about a former Miss Universe as "an ambush that was as false as Benghazi."

"This is the new Benghazi lie," he said in an interview on conservative radio host Sean Hannity's show, as flagged by Buzzfeed.

"It was as false as her claim she was under fire in Bosnia. It was as false as the lies she told about her emails," he added, sparing no political metaphor in his criticism of Clinton. "As happened in Ferguson, as happened in Benghazi, as happened in Bosnia, it’s all starting to fall apart because it’s based on a series of falsehoods."

It's all starting to fall apart for Hillary.
 

Iolo

Member
Cool, according to those graphs, we should be tied again around election day, and we'll have moved on from bedwetting to shitting our collective pants.
 
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