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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Bowdz said:
Murphy really just needs to hammer home all of Rubio's quotes about hating the Senate, how nothing important is done there (only the Presidency offers the ability to make progress), and how he won't commit to a full term. That is the frame that everyone should be looking at the election in. Nothing he says is true because he is an opportunistic politician.
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Except for the fact that we need to dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing.
 
H

Holmes

Member
nature boy said:
Previous poll from Monmouth had Clinton +9, but ok....
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Yeah, but her numbers have taken a hit from since then. If she can have good debate performances and not cough until the end of the campaign, I think she can consolidate a good 6% win in Florida. Which would be crazy for modern times Florida - the margin of victory in 00 was R+0.01 (officially), in 04 it was R+5, in 08 it was D+3 and in 12 it was barely D+1. The state is more Republican than the nation as a whole after all, but Miami-Dade is moving towards the Democrats quickly, and while the panhandle counties are moving towards the Republicans, their support there is almost at its ceiling, and there's a bigger population in southern Florida to balance that out. I-4 is the battleground for the state.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
benjipwns said:
Except for the fact that we need to dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing.
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No Benji, that's not fair because we need to dispel once and for all this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Previous poll was taken in the afterglow of the DNC. Considering what her poll numbers have looked like this past week you should just enjoy that she leads.
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She was never up +9, just as she isn't +5 now. She's ahead, but it's going to be 1-2% victory, just like 2012.

This is just hopium for the bedwetters.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Bowdz said:
No Benji, that's not fair because we need to dispel once and for all this fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.
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Now hold on. This notion that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing is just not true. He knows exactly what he’s doing.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Gruco said:
Yeah, I seriously think Murphy is winning. Closer and closer every week since the primary ended.
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Hopefully.

WI, IL, IN, PA, NH, FL, MO, NC, hold NV = 8 seat gain. This would constitute a Dem wave according to a guest article on Sabato's site. (28 seat gain in the House to be considered a Dem wave there - wouldn't be enough for a majority but would give Democrats serious leverage as it'd be nigh impossible for Ryan to go it alone on anything).
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
He was never a fan, called it Voodoo Economics in his primary against Reagan.
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Never is giving him too much credit (though I happily give him lots of credit). He had been convinced it was the right move by the time he ran in 88, but once he saw the results of it starting to come in, he ditched it.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
Every cough costs Hillary a full % point in the polls. Gosh I can't take the volatility in the polls, so glad the debate is only a week away
to finally end me
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
nature boy said:
She was never up +9, just as she isn't +5 now. She's ahead, but it's going to be 1-2% victory, just like 2012.
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Basically this. FL has always been a "god just call it already" state where it's clear about 15 minutes polls close that Hillary is going to win but they have to let the results from Palm Beach, Orange, and Miami-Dade drip in.

See also VA, where the rural counties use tachyon communications to report their results while NOVA hand delivers them via horse courier.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Fragamemnon said:
Basically this. FL has always been a "god just call it already" state where it's clear about 15 minutes polls close that Hillary is going to win but they have to let the results from Palm Beach, Orange, and Miami-Dade drip in.

See also VA, where the rural counties use tachyon communications to report their results while NOVA hand delivers them via horse courier.
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Fucking lol. Post of the thread.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Obama also outperformed the polling aggregate in Florida in 08 by nearly 2% and in 12 by almost 2.5%, and Clinton has a great ground game whereas Trump has.... a van.
 
M

Meowster

Member
I'm seeing nonstop Kander and Blunt ads in Kansas City (usually one immediately after the other). Kander's ad is really well done. His is a longshot but I'm still rooting for and donating to him. I think Koster has it in the bag as Governor though, all my relatives that get those insane letters from the NRA are instructing them to vote for him.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
mo60 said:
Hilary's campaign is now going after mormons in utah.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/mormons-for-hillary-utah-228415
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Everyone should go back and read her op-ed in the Deseret News. It's Hillary at her best-consensus building and knowledgeable of the both the long history of the parties involved and the tension between them.

One thing to note is that when you peel off big-name support in Utah you also are giving cover to Nevada Mormons (and there plenty of them) to vote Hillary.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Meowster said:
I'm seeing nonstop Kander and Blunt ads in Kansas City (usually one immediately after the other). Kander's ad is really well done. His is a longshot but I'm still rooting for and donating to him. I think Koster has it in the bag as Governor though, all my relatives that get those insane letters from the NRA are instructing them to vote for him.
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I think Koster's got this. His lead in the polls has been consistent and steady, so unless anything crazy happens I expect a mid-single digits win. Hopefully Kander pulls it off too.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Donald Trump spent more than a quarter-million dollars from his charitable foundation to settle lawsuits that involved the billionaire’s for-profit businesses, according to interviews and a review of legal documents.

Those cases, which together used $258,000 from Trump’s charity, were among four newly documented expenditures in which Trump may have violated laws against “self-dealing” — which prohibit nonprofit leaders from using charity money to benefit themselves or their businesses.

If the Internal Revenue Service were to find that Trump violated self-dealing rules, the agency could require him to pay penalty taxes or to reimburse the foundation for all the money it spent on his behalf. Trump is also facing scrutiny from the office of the New York attorney general, which is examining whether the foundation broke state charity laws.

More broadly, these cases also provide new evidence that Trump ran his charity in a way that may have violated U.S. tax law and gone against the moral conventions of philanthropy.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ble-main_trumpfoundation-1040a:homepage/story

Brazen

Using other people's money that were donating to his charity to settle his legal problems incurred by his private businesses.

edit - woops, looks like this is old
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
nature boy said:
Yes, lets ignore yesterday's polls and all recent Florida polls, just because it looks so good!



Tell that to the Clinton campaign, that's dumping millions of dollars in ads.
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I wonder what you'd be saying right now if Trump posted a 5 point lead instead.

Monmouth's polling director said they're seeing a small rebound for Clinton in all their polling this week, maybe this is part of it. Or maybe it's just an outlier! Who knows! Trying to spin it as a bad result for Clinton is just dumb though. She's not polling as well as she was over a month ago? Yeah, no shit.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
2000 - In a tight election, Al Gore becomes the next president of the United States via the Supreme Court
2001 - Terrorists attack the pentagon and world trade center
2002 - Despite overwhelming support from congress and the people, president Gore refuses to invade Afghanistan or Iraq, and instead sends a small strike force to apprehend Bin Laden
2004 - September - A risky raid on a complex believed to contain Bin Laden is a massive failure, 6 Americans and 3 civilians lose their lives leading to political embarrassment
2004 - November - In response to the perceived weakness of Gore on foreign policy, George Bush, running for a second attempt, wins in a landslide election, filling both houses with Republicans. Popular sitting senator John McCain is his VP.
2005 - The Iraq War starts
2007 - Osama Bin Laden is captured in a successful raid
2008 - Bush wins re-election in a not very close election against former first lady and senator Hillary Clinton, on the tail wind of his perceived excellent foreign policy
2009 - The economy crashes due to weakened regulations put in place during Bush's first term
2010 - Bush is considered the least popular sitting president in modern history, the economy is in shambles and not recovering and the Iraq war is a mess
2012 - Following from Bush, former Mass governor Romney wins the primary and runs against a young senator from Illinois. In a landslide, the senator wins in a biggest wave election since the 80s
2016 - We get to witness Donald Trump vs Obama

Alt history is fun
 
N

nature boy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I wonder what you'd be saying right now if Trump posted a 5 point lead instead.

Monmouth's polling director said they're seeing a small rebound for Clinton in all their polling this week, maybe this is part of it. Or maybe it's just an outlier! Who knows! Trying to spin it as a bad result for Clinton is just dumb though. She's not polling as well as she was over a month ago? Yeah, no shit.
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Well I trashed that Florida poll that had Trump +4 and the CNN Florida poll, which lacked a LV under 50 sample lower than the MOE of 8.5% (lol), so I would say the same thing TBH.

I don't think the Clinton campaign would dump tons of money on ads and offices if they felt their margin was similar to a Michigan or Wisconsin, would you?

Not sure where I said it was a bad "result" - it's a poll, not a test - or even spinning it.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
I think anyone who believes that Barack Obama isn’t doing what he’s doing on purpose doesn’t understand what we’re dealing with here. Okay?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I guess i don't get the "bedwetter" term usage here. It originally came from people freaking out/being scared about polls, but do people who are scared wet the bed? It just doesn't make much sense.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
My sheets are dry, I quit reading 538 and just check PEC and Upshot daily.

I made my 'worst case scenario with a win' map.

OLRQJ.png
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