I just can't anymore.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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I just can't anymore.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Trump is getting hammered now but overall this primary and election has given a pretty scary preview of how an unabashed authoritarian/fascist could win an election in modern America with the media playing along. In many ways the media is spinning in Balkanization territory but the unifying agenda of network/tv media is to stabilize national elections and push a "both sides" narrative; this ensures that no matter how extreme, both candidates will be normalized on equal grounds. Trump being such an entertaining figure complicates this even more: networks want increased ratings, and theoretically Trump increases ratings (although apparently network numbers are lower than they were during the Obama/Palin 08 media race). So they hire pro-Trump extremists to defend the indefensible while reeling in pro-Trump viewers.
plagiarize
Banned
Doesn't he have to at least look like he might be mounting a comeback first? Cause the polls today have been even better for Clinton. Even 538 have her back above a 70% chance in the polls only.
Finale Fireworker
Member
I don't even know what her agenda as a candidate is. Hate Hillary Clinton and the democrats? Is that her sole purpose in her candidacy? What is her actual goal? If it was to secure funding for the Green Party next election, she has failed. So what is she still doing?
The LA Times poll has horrible sampling. You can see it in their internals. It looks like their sample of African Americans is very small, so whenever one of the Trump voting African-Americans gets included you see something like a 10% spike in the African-American vote. They run a weighting algorithm to get their small sample of African-Americans adjusted to the national average. So just a couple African-Americans in their sample can push Trump up several points because they are disproportionately weighted. You don't see any of that volatility in their white sample. It also looks like their sample of young voters disproportionately favors Trump relative to other polls.
googleplex
Member
Worked for Bernie at first
I think he is referring to orange turd not going completely bankrupt but that can also easily be countered with the fact that he has now admitted to not paying any taxes.
Beer Monkey
Member
STOP AND FRISK.
plagiarize
Banned
Ah okay. I though it was about trying to get a comeback kid narrative going in the media.
Hating non-white people is a hell of a drug.
I still have to believe that Ohio can turn blue. I just have to or I'll freak out. I've lived in Ohio most of my whole life and I've never known what it's like to not be in a swing state. I would have rather it turned blue rather than red if it decided to settle on the freaking color.
Ugh. I'm so depressed.
Ugh. I'm so depressed.
Don't be so sure. While Obama's popularity and the not-bad economy might give an edge to any generic D, a generic R would still have a very good chance to win the election.
A non-Hillary generic D against Trump might be doing "better", but well, a generic D like Tim Kaine? I don't know... For all her faults, HIllary is actually more liberal than the average Democrat too, and other Democrats might not garner enough enthusiasm from women, Latinos and other groups like HIllary or Sanders does. And Sanders would be doing better with young voters, but don't be so sure he would be doing better with Latinos, suburban Republicans or women against Trump, although Trump would certainly not have had such a big advantage with white men or the working class.
Overall, unless it was Obama, I'm not sure any Democrat would be faring much better against Trump or a generic Republican. Maybe Biden?
Smh...
Can't wait for this buffoon to lose election night and disappear into irrelevance.
whyamihere
Banned
I feel dirty even posting #WeMatter guys here, but
plagiarize
Banned
The problem with generic R more than generic D, is that it's a lot harder to pin down a generic R than a generic D. Are we talking a Reagan R? A conservative R? A tea party R?
Most people will presume that R is what they *think* the GOP is, and that's not a consistent look. Once you put someone in there, with actual positions, even if you the take most average republican, I think they'd poll worse than generic R would. I mean who is closest to it? Jeb? Cruz? Kasich?
Finale Fireworker
Member
One of the things that made me come around to HRC in a big way was realizing nobody takes a punch in the face like Hillary Clinton. So many things that she has accomplished have been undermined by circumstance or idiocy.
Her childhood dreams were undermined when NASA told her girls couldn't be astronauts. Her tenure as First Lady was undermined by her husband's infidelities. You could even say her first bid at the presidency was undermined when an inexperienced up-and-comer won the nomination over her. And now, it feels like the very existence of Jill Stein is to undermine what should have been Hillary's historic title as the first female candidate of an American political party.
It's not new for political opponents to try to invalidate their rivals, but HRC is a special enough case. I am tired of people spinning all of Clinton's incredible achievements as actual failures, but I have especially had enough of Jill Stein.
Comeback as in business comeback.
That's also true. But again, it just proves that all those hypothetical "Sanders would be doing much better" rants aren't really well thought out.
Sanders, for example, would be much easily rattled in debates against Trump than Hillary, and he wouldn't be able to use Trump's temperament against him like HIllary does.
It would definitely be a different race, that's for sure. Sanders wouldn't be winning NC and Florida or even Virginia that easily, although he most certainly would be doing better against Trump in Iowa, Ohio, Maine and Nevada, or even Indiana.
Sanders vs Trump:
Sanders might win Florida just because of minorities hating Trump, but Cubans and older Republicans might not go to Sanders by the same numbers they're going for Hillary.
Hillary won New Mexico, would this mean Sanders would be losing New Mexico to Johnson? unlikely, but I have that doubt.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Nevada is a dem machine state, I'm not concerned at all by polls there. Clinton will win comfortably, as will Catherine Cortez Masto.
whyamihere
Banned
Looking over these voter registration states in Nevada, September 16:
Total: 1,386,550
Democrat: 548,577 (39.5%)
GOP: 471,110 (33.9%)
No Party: 279,364 (20.1%)
American Independent: 60,281 (4.3%)
Libertarian: 12,084 (.8%)
Other: 15,134 (1.1%)
Let's look at September 15:
Total: 1,219,739
Democrat: 478,738 (39.2%)
GOP: 422,777 (34.6%)
No Party: 240,418 (19.7%)
American Independent: 57,540 (4.7%)
Libertarian: 10,183 (.8%)
Other: 10,083 (.8%)
Y2Y Gains:
Total: 166,811
Democrat: 69,839 (+.3%)
GOP: 48,333 (-.7%)
No Party: 38,946 (+.4%)
American Independent: 2,741 (-.4%)
Libertarian: 1,901 (-)
Other: 5,051 (+.3%)
Total: 1,386,550
Democrat: 548,577 (39.5%)
GOP: 471,110 (33.9%)
No Party: 279,364 (20.1%)
American Independent: 60,281 (4.3%)
Libertarian: 12,084 (.8%)
Other: 15,134 (1.1%)
Let's look at September 15:
Total: 1,219,739
Democrat: 478,738 (39.2%)
GOP: 422,777 (34.6%)
No Party: 240,418 (19.7%)
American Independent: 57,540 (4.7%)
Libertarian: 10,183 (.8%)
Other: 10,083 (.8%)
Y2Y Gains:
Total: 166,811
Democrat: 69,839 (+.3%)
GOP: 48,333 (-.7%)
No Party: 38,946 (+.4%)
American Independent: 2,741 (-.4%)
Libertarian: 1,901 (-)
Other: 5,051 (+.3%)
banefirelord
Banned
Is this related to the "if you vote for Hillary, the blood of the people her hawkish foreign policy kills is on your hands. #dontvote" stuff I've been seeing people on Facebook parroting?
Biden doesn't pull punches.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
DJ does suck.
Phonebank a bit! Or some other type of volunteering.
I think GotV will help us in Ohio a bit, but it looks bad right now.
whyamihere
Banned
More good registration news:
Marco Rubio is a generic R. Everybody else has some form of uniqueness or baggage except for Kasich, who would probably outperform a generic R.
Goddammit it's sad as hell how many people got tricked by this name. There's no way more than like 5 people actually meant to pick that party
Kasich probably will have issues with women voters.
Marco Rubio is conservative as all hell, he is not a standard Republican.
whyamihere
Banned
Starting to get early vote-in-person numbers from Iowa:
I don't know how much the Dems vote early in-person in 2012.
It's always funny to me.
Ah ha:
I don't know how much the Dems vote early in-person in 2012.
It's always funny to me.
Ah ha:
shinra-bansho
Member
Has Killary bombed London yet.
As would a generic R. Kasich's position on abortion is not far removed from the standard Republican position. Kasich probably has a much better image than a generic R in other areas, like honesty and character. That makes him more appealing to independents.
What matters in terms of electability is perception. Not reality. On the outside, he straddles the establishment and tea party lanes. That makes him typical/generic.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Honesty and character until the tape of him yanking a tape recorder out of a reporter's hand goes viral.
He wasn't clean. Not at all. He only seemed that way because nobody paid any attention to him.
I hope so. It's literally the only reason I'm voting for her.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
She was never this.
There have been 3rd party female candidates this decade, and there was even one before women had the right to vote.
There's a reason it's had a qualification in the media of "First Major Party Female candidate."
Because Hillary is the first to have a viable shot at the presidency.
cartoon_soldier
Member
First time Democrats have had a registration edge in CO
cartoon_soldier
Member
Iowa:
Iowa lost cause
Iowa lost cause
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The GOP is so progressive. In four years, they've gone from disparaging the 47% to nominating a member of the 47%. Huge turnaround.
Can someone explain to me the Colorado demographic shifts? Where are all these new liberals coming from? Is it just generational, or is something attracting people from out of state?
I know that Virginia basically got invaded by Maryland and is now South Maryland.
As a Floridian, I get what you're saying, but this is not a "both sides" argument as calling a state something -- aka not something actually human -- is not comparable to saying black people smell etc. I don't think.
THAT SAID, yes I do agree discussing why Ohio is doing XYZ is better than saying booooo that state for being "dumb" or whatever.
I never said he was clean. He looks cleaner than a generic Republican. You guys are moving the goal posts. My point was that he outperforms a generic Republican. You guys seem to believe that a generic Republican is an ideal image of a Republican. Not a realistic one.
Pot? Let's go with pot.
Iowa:
Iowa lost cause
Probably doesn't mean much. If hilary can pull some indpendents from trump she will win Iowa.
Finale Fireworker
Member
It's true and you're right. What I meant to stress was the "major party" thing, because Clinton should have this spotlight right now, but Stein seems to commit her existence to discredit Clinton's presence on the 2016 ballot by being there too and having nothing positive to say about her.
I admit it was an emotional post and I should have worded it better. I hope my overall point is still clear.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Third, after Victoria Woodhull in 1872 and Belva Lockwood in 1884 and 1888, both for the Equal Rights Party. If you're counting Stein you have to count those two as well.
Oops forgot the more recent ones.
You're sort of moving the goal posts though aren't you? You're pointing out generic Republicans, and then people are saying well they're only generic until you know them. A "generic" Republican like a "generic" any politician isn't really a thing that exists in the actual environment. People have flaws, voting records, strengths and so on that will be pointed out to the general public at that point.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Combined with the absentee voting data, it does not look good for Dems.
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