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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Holmes

Member
Yes, Nevada is a lock. The polls there are shit. There are more than enough African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics to offset the uneducated whites in Washoe.
 

Emarv

Member
Ron Paul saying he's voting for Jill Stein because he doesn't believe Johnson is a true libertarian is yet another "lol 2016" moment to add to the list.
 
God-given potential angers me in a way that shows I'm an anti-theist asshole at heart, I'm sorry.

I don't mean to have that reaction to that phrase.

Anyway, Ross be the 2024 nominee as NC will be the new Ohio in 2024.
 
I would suspect he will be. Unlike Bush he won't be political poison after he is out of office.

Bill has been at every DNC since he was president.

That's true, yeah. That has me somewhat more hopeful that Hillary will be able to survive to a second term, assuming Bush-tier controversies don't occur and assuming that the GOP doesn't shape up by then.
 

Holmes

Member
I'd guess that if Hillary's Colorado margin is as gaudy as advertised, then Nevada will follow.
Maybe. I wouldn't be surprised if the margin of victory in Nevada is equal to that in Colorado or is less. Colorado has many more educated white voters than Nevada and is a more cosmopolitan/traditionally liberal, whereas Nevada has a lot more non-white voters that vote reliably Democratic. I wouldn't be surprised if the margin of victory in Colorado is say 11-12%, and in Nevada it's about 8-9%. I think what matters more is whether that'll stay true in 2020 and beyond, or if Colorado actually has become a more Democratic state than Nevada (it hasn't been more Democratic than Nevada in quite a long time).
 
Ron Paul saying he's voting for Jill Stein because he doesn't believe Johnson is a true libertarian is yet another "lol 2016" moment to add to the list.

This makes the least sense of anything.

Even if Johnson is a fake libertarian he's much more of a libertarian than Jill Stein who isn't remotely libertarian at all.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Anybody paying attention to this voter ID stuff going down in Wisconsin right now?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
2024 looks great until you see the further wipeout of Democrats in 2018 and 2022 midterms + another 8 years of House Control adding up to 26 out of 30 years.
 

Joeytj

Banned
Despite that OH poll from Q, Hillary got another big boost today at FiveThirtyEight.com, up about 4 points in all models.

Hurray?
 

Wilsongt

Member
2024 looks great until you see the further wipeout of Democrats in 2018 and 2022 midterms + another 8 years of House Control adding up to 24 out of 28 years.

Dems are done at the local level and in the legislature. All they have is the White house.

Thanks, young people.
 
Dems are done at the local level and in the legislature. All they have is the White house.

Thanks, young people.

It sucks, but at least the the Supreme Court would be secured for a generation or two, If Democrats are able to hold the White House for at least twelve to sixteen years. The fact is, until a Republican takes the White House, Democrats will continue to languish at all other levels of government.
 
Starting to get early vote-in-person numbers from Iowa:



I don't know how much the Dems vote early in-person in 2012.



It's always funny to me.

Ah ha:
Now that's a boost I wanted to see.

Dems are lagging the 2012 numbers but catching up fairly quickly. If we even come close to those totals Hillary should have a decent baked-in lead.
 

Wilsongt

Member
It sucks, but at least the the Supreme Court would be secured for a generation or two, If Democrats are able to hold the White House for at least twelve to sixteen years. The fact is, until a Republican takes the White House, Democrats will continue to languish at all other levels of government.

If Hillary can hold on until 2020, there -might- be a possibility that there could be redistricting with the census. But Republicans have given themselves such a nice cushion.
 

HylianTom

Banned
It sucks, but at least the the Supreme Court would be secured for a generation or two, If Democrats are able to hold the White House for at least twelve to sixteen years. The fact is, until a Republican takes the White House, Democrats will continue to languish at all other levels of government.

What a weird, sad reality.

GOP controlling local governments, and SCOTUS knocking-down their more egregious measures.

The country's large-scale problems will go unsolved, save for emergent situations, and we'll muddle-along from emergency to emergency..
 
But the census isnt recalculated into new districts until 2022.
A good election result in 2020 would hopefully give Democrats leverage in the redistricting cycle. The next election (2022) would then have better maps.

2018 might be more important though for this as we could gain governorships. 2020 would be more about improving our margins in state legislatures.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Dems are done at the local level and in the legislature. All they have is the White house.

Thanks, young people.

Are we seriously still blaming young people for the republicans holding the House and Senate? The group of people who pushed Bernie and his local politics angle through the primary season, and who will end up being the future of our political landscape? Seriously?
 
Man if Hilary has a repeat performance this weekend I don't think the 3rd debate will even matter.

I want to see her hit 48-50 in more polls though
 
2024 looks great until you see the further wipeout of Democrats in 2018 and 2022 midterms + another 8 years of House Control adding up to 26 out of 30 years.

The presidential election of 2016 actually has far reaching consequences. Donald Trumps losses with college educated white voters and hispanic voters reverberate through the political system for years. 2018 bolstered by a booming economy growing at a rate of 4.3% leads to a small Democratic congressional majority. It lasts through 2022 when what's later coined "Hiccup of 2021" sees a complete collapse in the cola and carbonated drink industry. Republicans seize on the minor economic dip and ride it to a congressional majority of 226H 53S. This is a slightly softer and more gentle Republican party. No longer intent on taking away Obamacare. Senate Majority Leader* Ernst has a few ideas to make it better!
 

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Man if Hilary has a repeat performance this weekend I don't think the 3rd debate will even matter.

It's going to be interesting. We thought Trump interrupted Clinton lot last week, I don't think it will be anything compared to this one. I think he'll interrupt her every chance he gets. He will bring up emails non-stop, and I think he'll be more aggressive towards the moderator.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Are we seriously still blaming young people for the republicans holding the House and Senate? The group of people who pushed Bernie and his local politics angle through the primary season, and who will end up being the future of our political landscape? Seriously?

Less than 30% voting rate in 2010? Yes.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Yea. The funny thing about it is that Obama could very easily be one of the 1-3 most recognizable and popular men on the planet for a couple decades if not more.

He's going to do great things.

and he's still going to be living in DC for the next 2 years. He'll probably visit every now and then + Hillary is going to ask him to campaign in the midterms.
 
and he's still going to be living in DC for the next 2 years. He'll probably visit every now and then + Hillary is going to ask him to campaign in the midterms.
Obama is going to be a valuable campaign asset for years. Which is why it's dumb that people want him on the Supreme Court.
 
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