PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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There was another NV poll yesterday that I don't believe was posted:

Hart Research Associates (B+ on 538)

Clinton - 44
Trump - 41
What's geography? - 8

Sept. 27 - Oct. 2
 
Kirk went all out do-not-want dog on Trump and he's still getting dumpstered.

I feel that as election day gets closer you'll start to see more measurable partisan breaks like that result above.
 
Basileus777 said:
Every map? Here we're talking about silly scenarios that will never happen, no one thinks Trump is winning NH.
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Yes, every map. NH isn't one of those that fits the silly scenario. He isn't even campaigning there.

I mean it's pointless for me to combat over this, but yeah.

I would give Trump NM tbh.
 
Basileus777 said:
Oh, that's an easy one.

Completely plausible.
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The likelihood that that happens is about the same as this for me

0b0rW.png
 
God, I can't wait to see the final margin on election night. Sure, the popular vote might be down a bit, but the margins in some of these states are gonna be massive for Clinton.

I need a livecam on Donald's face when he sees the final New York spread.
 
Slayven said:
She did real well in the democrat townhalls, she really shines when she can give a nuanced answer





Called it. You can't be shitting on women for a week straight not catch those hands
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BUT WHY ISN'T SHE LEADING BY 50 POINTS AND WHAT ABOUT OHIOOOOOO

/joe
 
Emarv said:
God, I can't wait to see the final margin on election night. Sure, the popular vote might be down a bit, but the margins in some of these states are gonna be massive for Clinton.

I need a livecam on Donald's face when he sees the final New York spread.
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California, Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland and New York will all probably be 30+ for Hilary. Illonis will be 25+ probably.
 
adam387 said:
Man, those PA demos are damn favorable to Trump, and he's still losing.



DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
Self-Reported
35% Republican
26% Independent
39% Democrat

49% Male
51% Female
20% 18-34

24% 35-49
31% 50-64
25% 65+

86% White
9% Black
4% Hispanic
2% Other
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I'm guessing that PA has a high percentage of educated whites and women as the total white vote is in favor of Hillary, which isn't typical.
 
Slayven said:
Shit goes down when you lose billions of dollars, and thousands of jobs over piss and shit
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I remember saying this a lot during the Bush years...

You can't legislate morality. To deny someone the right to piss and shit due to moral or religious objections is absurd and brings more attention to a "problem" that wasn't even a huge deal in the first place.
 
A Link to the Past said:
That's what has me curious, how far away is Oklahoma to being a blue state versus, say, Wyoming or West Virginia? I have to imagine that we could see a rise in Oklahoma's Hispanic population due to its proximity to Texas.
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I think it's going to take an earthquake to flip this state, lol. If we get one large enough to destroy homes and roads... yeah.

Otherwise no chance.
 
Basileus777 said:
He won't. Neither will Ayotte.
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Agreed. I don't see either of them winning at this point if HRC is up by that much in both states. Ayotte is obviously a better incumbent than Toomey, but Hassan is obviously a better challenger than McGinty. Same with North Carolina, though Burr is probably a slightly worse incumbent than Toomey and Ross is a better challenger than McGinty.
 
Also I just heard about the Assange thing

That's fucking hilarious lol, the man has no understanding of how much he fucked up his reputation. No wonder Republicans are mad at him.
 
A Link to the Past said:
Also I just heard about the Assange thing

That's fucking hilarious lol, the man has no understanding of how much he fucked up his reputation. No wonder Republicans are mad at him.
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This annoys me to no end, he always had these tendencies. He didn't change!

People have been saying this since he released the cables!
 
adam387 said:
Man, those PA demos are damn favorable to Trump, and he's still losing.
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fears of losing PA are still a thing I guess. Every day on the news, PA this PA that. Ugh. Like I've been saying... we've got this.

I can't wait to vote Toomey out. He's generally viewed as being a spineless moron around here. Like he is a numbskull tumor that grew off of Corbett in 2010 and then became its own entity.
 
NYCmetsfan said:
This annoys me to no end, he always had these tendencies. He didn't change!

People have been saying this since he released the cables!
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I overheard somebody talking up Assange at lunch. He was talking "both sides" being bad, so I assume he was a Republican who's dismayed by Trump.

Holmes said:
Heh, the Illinois poll had Clinton winning Chicago by 48%, the suburbs by 31%, and losing downstate by 1%. Reckt.
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Suburbs elected Mark Kirk and Rauner, but they are also full of educated businesspeople who aren't likely to back Trump at all.

We like our Republicans moderate and pragmatic, and Trump is neither.

Really strong Clinton if she only loses downstate by a point.
 
I mean, we've only had one post-debate Ohio poll and it was Qpac. If Clinton is clobbering Trump in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and Illinois, there's no reason to believe it's not the case in Ohio too. The fact that Hillary was winning college educated whites in the PA Q poll by about 10 and losing them in the Ohio poll by about 10 was a bit strange.
 
Holmes said:
I mean, we've only had one post-debate Ohio poll and it was Qpac. If Clinton is clobbering Trump in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and Illinois, there's no reason to believe it's not the case in Ohio too. The fact that Hillary was winning college educated whites in the PA Q poll by about 10 and losing them in the Ohio poll by about 10 was a big strange.
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I think the suburbs of Ohio are a little more similar to the suburbs of Minnesota or Wisconsin than the Acela Corridor suburbs, iirc.
 
Holmes said:
I mean, we've only had one post-debate Ohio poll and it was Qpac. If Clinton is clobbering Trump in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and Illinois, there's no reason to believe it's not the case in Ohio too. The fact that Hillary was winning college educated whites in the PA Q poll by about 10 and losing them in the Ohio poll by about 10 was a bit strange.
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Monmouth is releasing a poll of Ohio tomorrow.

Hoping for some good news, I'd take a tie.
 
NYCmetsfan said:
This annoys me to no end, he always had these tendencies. He didn't change!

People have been saying this since he released the cables!
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That's the thing people don't get: he hasn't changed at all. It's just that when he started out he had something important to release that would get him the spotlight. If he cared about what everyone says he does and not the spotlight, he'd have just been a shadowy figure behind wikileaks instead of making himself it's face.
 
KyroLen said:
What did she say? I'm at work, these videos on twitter do not work.
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Michelle:
"I've watched her [Hillary]; when she gets knocked-down, she doesn't complain.. she doesn't cry foul.."

{*taps the mic a few times, crowd goes nuts*}

".. no - she gets right back up!"
 
‏@elizabethforma
Think about it: @realDonaldTrump calls Latinos rapists, African Americans thugs, & women fat pigs, & Kelly Ayotte thinks he's a role model.
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bye kelly

@elizabethforma
Four hours later - after massive public outcry & widespread condemnation - Kelly Ayotte asked for a do-over. Sorry. That's not leadership.
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lololol
 
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