Heh it not like he was low key,I guess this is too much for Fox.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Just added today I believe.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Aggrieved people who are Trump's core supporters pay the bills these days for Fox news and sites like Drudge Report. Hannity's trying to endear himself to them but doesn't realize how his blatant bias is ruining Fox's facade of being fair and balanced. I imagine he's going to be replaced after the election, and probably booted very hard if Trump loses badly.
MHWilliams
Member
You course corrected, young one. The other posters here loved you enough to save you. Embrace them and learn from this.
Go and sin no more.
Mmm...there's a smell of gas in the nearby city I live in with shelters in place. Seems to be crude oil from an oil sheen in the water near the ferry building. Kind of scary.
Problematique.
User 463088
Banned
Problematique would be a good drag name.
eBay Huckster
Member
also a good band name
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
White working class men as a percentage of US population: 16%
Disabled people as a percentage of US population: 20%
Guess the ratio of articles written about the first group compared to articles written about the second group in this election.
(I bring this up because Trump is clearly the most anti-disabled presidential candidate in recent memory and Hillary is running further to the left on disability than any presidential candidate before her).
Disabled people as a percentage of US population: 20%
Guess the ratio of articles written about the first group compared to articles written about the second group in this election.
(I bring this up because Trump is clearly the most anti-disabled presidential candidate in recent memory and Hillary is running further to the left on disability than any presidential candidate before her).
StopMakingSense
Member
USC is continuing it's trend, down to Trump +4.1
User 463088
Banned
He lost 8 points among AA voters in a single day. I love waiting for it to update. I mean, there is no way those number should be that volatile.
shinra-bansho
Member
The two black people in their sample are the most indecisive ever.
cartoon_soldier
Member
If Clinton campaign plays it right the OPM and Trump foundation stories can be very good for them. And by playing it right that means not leaving it to media.
User 463088
Banned
Say one nice thing about Hillary and her campaign. Anything at all. One nice thing.
cartoon_soldier
Member
They put on an amazing DNC
They have some good ads
They have a good ground game
And the fact that they put on an amazing DNC and then disappeared for August is what stands out the most.
User 463088
Banned
Thank you. It's good to switch it up once in a while, you know.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Most disabled people probably identify more strongly with their other interests than they do with their disability, though. There was a really interesting Guardian article on a guy from the South who was the fall guy for a company dumping illegal chemicals near New Orleans. Permanently damaged his lungs, and he hated "big companies" with a passion and had started a disability help group, but... is a Trump activist who hates Clinton for being a dirty liar and the Democrats for ignoring the South. It was an interesting read, and also a rather sad one. I'll see if I can find it; normally I save such links but I didn't this one.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...american-politics-holds-secret-trumps-success
Here it is. Really good article, one of the best I've read in a long while. It paints a sad, sad picture of those left behind by new America.
EDIT: YouGOV is still do RV polls, so that's a pretty bad result for Clinton. Hopefully the rest follow the Monmouth trend.
And double ouch at Clinton and Trump having equal (un)favourability among registered voters!
Here it is. Really good article, one of the best I've read in a long while. It paints a sad, sad picture of those left behind by new America.
EDIT: YouGOV is still do RV polls, so that's a pretty bad result for Clinton. Hopefully the rest follow the Monmouth trend.
And double ouch at Clinton and Trump having equal (un)favourability among registered voters!
Hard to say if it means anything since it's simply one step above doing/saying nothing at all.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
My guess is that it is a small batch of voters who hover almost exactly on the likely/not-likely margin. Like, if you're a black Trump voter, you're probably deeply into that shit, and are voting hell or high water. Clinton has to deal with people who aren't sure if they want to vote or not. So Trump probably has exactly the same black people voting for him every time, but they make up a larger or smaller proportion of likely black voters depending on whether a black Clinton voter feels like today is a 6/10 likely to vote day or a 7/10 likely to vote day.
Yes. So far nothing has changed.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Did you really expect anything to change?
Dude come on
shinra-bansho
Member
Seriously. What on earth is wrong with you?
User 463088
Banned
He's an asshole because he was wrong?
That said I'm not going to worry until I see a close PA poll
Eh I kinda thought this but he was fairly kind to Wang and the Upshot on Monday
And Cohn didn't reallllly question their model
User 463088
Banned
No, he's an asshole because he was wrong, pretended he wasn't and then acts superior. Like, he was literally super wrong and a terrible pundit throughout the GOP primary. For months he kept saying Trump wouldn't win, when they data points clearly showed that he would. Like his whole thing is "Follow the data" which is good, until he was suddenly like "No, we're not, we're going to pretend it's going to go back to what we think it should be."
So, when someone ret cons their perspectives on shit, I kinda hate that. When I'm wrong about something, I have to own it. (I'm not happy about it, but whatever, cause I'm kind of an asshole too!) But, I'm not going to come back and pretend that I didn't do the exact same thing I'm complaining that someone else is doing. Or if I do, I'm not going to do it on Twitter.
And the Brexit thing is annoying because he's better than that, and he knows that there are about 30 reasons why the two situations are entirely non comparable.
Exactly. Harry Enten works for 538. I find him adorable. This isn't a critique of their model. This is a personal critique against Nate himself.
He did come out and say he was wrong
shinra-bansho
Member
He's an asshole because he's being an asshole and is trash besmirching the good name of his namesake deity.
Also why is everyone cheering forma telling off a huge bank CEO as if he knows fuckall what's happening at like branch level that led to rounding era revenue? Other than I guess fuck banks and money and stuff.
Also why is everyone cheering forma telling off a huge bank CEO as if he knows fuckall what's happening at like branch level that led to rounding era revenue? Other than I guess fuck banks and money and stuff.
MassiveNights
Banned
He was replying to a tweet that pretty much said 538 was a trash rollercoaster, he's within his rights to defend his model.
The 538 model has been pretty representative of the 2-way election so far. It's up and down because that's how it's been.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/778563584888627200
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/778564687491395584
I think denying it is really close right now is pretty irresponsible.
The 538 model has been pretty representative of the 2-way election so far. It's up and down because that's how it's been.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/778563584888627200
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/778564687491395584
I think denying it is really close right now is pretty irresponsible.
User 463088
Banned
But, literally, the only people showing it close right now is 538.
Daily Kos' model is almost identical to 538s 2012 (and I assume 2016) model. There are minor differences, but still......Nate claims his model is super stable. It's not. It swings more than any other one that I follow. So, my question is what makes his model so much more reactive to everything than everyone else's. I think that's a legitimate line of questioning, and his assholishness is "OMG We're right, shut up, it's close, get over it."
Nate has said his model isn't stable tho. He said his is the most uncertain due to the high number of undecideds and unfavorability of the candidates.But, literally, the only people showing it close right now is 538.
Daily Kos' model is almost identical to 538s 2012 (and I assume 2016) model. There are minor differences, but still......Nate claims his model is super stable. It's not. It swings more than any other one that I follow. So, my question is what makes his model so much more reactive to everything than everyone else's. I think that's a legitimate line of questioning, and his assholishness is "OMG We're right, shut up, it's close, get over it."
Honestly I think you're reading assholishness into his replies.
MassiveNights
Banned
All that tells me is that 538 is more reflective of the polls at face value than those other outlets. Those are p. tight right now so 56% seems normal?
I guess it's up to the individual to decide if that's for them or they are holding out hope on turnout and ground game.
I guess it's up to the individual to decide if that's for them or they are holding out hope on turnout and ground game.
sazzy
Member
But, literally, the only people showing it close right now is 538.
Daily Kos' model is almost identical to 538s 2012 (and I assume 2016) model. There are minor differences, but still......Nate claims his model is super stable. It's not. It swings more than any other one that I follow. So, my question is what makes his model so much more reactive to everything than everyone else's. I think that's a legitimate line of questioning, and his assholishness is "OMG We're right, shut up, it's close, get over it."
updated:
User 463088
Banned
I actually, don't really care what 538 says, Because, whatever. I just think Nate acts like an asshole sometimes.
It's not thaaaaat far off from the othersupdated:
MassiveNights
Banned
I mean his point was that Remain was 2 points ahead of Leave going into the day of the vote and that pretty much means it's anyone's game in reality, but the consensus from the media/pundits was that Remain was going to power through and beat Leave convincingly.
If Hillary is 2 points ahead of Trump on election day, you'll see the same commentary no doubt, but anything could happen.
I think it's a fair comparison.
The 538 model doesn't make assumptions.
If Hillary is 2 points ahead of Trump on election day, you'll see the same commentary no doubt, but anything could happen.
I think it's a fair comparison.
The 538 model doesn't make assumptions.
User 463088
Banned
Also, no one remembers www.electoral-vote.com anymore.
SAD! That was my jam in 2004.
SAD! That was my jam in 2004.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Brexit wasn't some polling disaster. Not a single one of the big pollsters other than ComRes called it outside of the margin of error. Survation got it perfectly. About half of them were wrong about the result, but that's because it was a knife edge result and that's what margin of error does to knife edge results. I don't get why he keeps comparing it to Brexit. The polling moral of Brexit is that: Clinton is probably winning, but learn how to MoE.
I'd normally be on pins and needles if it were a 2% race, but that's pretty comfy, considering the Potemkin campaign operation he's running.
I can hardly wait for early voting stats to start trickling in. Hopefully the numbers will reflect on-the-ground reality.
(Now I'm getting flashbacks to PoliGAF being comforted by Ohio early voting stats for those last few weeks of 2012..)
I can hardly wait for early voting stats to start trickling in. Hopefully the numbers will reflect on-the-ground reality.
(Now I'm getting flashbacks to PoliGAF being comforted by Ohio early voting stats for those last few weeks of 2012..)
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