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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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J

johnsmith

remember me
Fragamemnon said:
fucking hell I can't post FeelsGoodMan pepes because the alt-right ruined pepe.

Still, FeelsGoodMan.
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I got you fam

tvBMhfk.jpg
 
I

Iolo

Member
BiggNife said:
I was literally just thinking that it's a relief that Johnson didn't make the cut for the debates. It would only hurt Hillary and help Trump.
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What if Hillary destroys Trump in debate 1, causing Trump voters to migrate to Johnson, who polls high enough to get into debate 2 or 3, and Johnson totally destroys Hillary in the debate, causing Trump to win?
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
hasn't NBC always been good to hillary?

Iolo said:
What if Hillary destroys Trump in debate 1, causing Trump voters to migrate to Johnson, who polls high enough to get into debate 2 or 3, and Johnson totally destroys Hillary in the debate, causing Trump to win?
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need new sheets already!
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Good, good, good. NBC has always been a bit better for Hill no? Although this is an improvement for her in this poll too.

Let's hope the rest of the week is as good in the lead up to the debate.

Gosh, Monday is going to be horrible for my ulcers.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Iolo said:
What if Hillary destroys Trump in debate 1, causing Trump voters to migrate to Johnson, who polls high enough to get into debate 2 or 3, and Johnson totally destroys Hillary in the debate, causing Trump to win?
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Also what if Bloomberg comes out of nowhere and does an rko to Johnson live on stage
 
I

Iolo

Member
Should have saved that NBC/WSJ poll in the hopium buffer for later today, because those Fox polls of OH/NC/NV may cause us to leak a bit again.
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
This is a really important point, from the NBC/WSJ poll

NBC/WSJ poll: in July voters backed "major changes" over "steady approach" 56%-41%; now 49%-47%. Peter Hart: "voters see HRC as safe, smart"
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I think Trump's erratic behavior is driving people to favor stability over radical change, which is of course good news for Hillary.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
One of the unspoken things that people aren't talking about are the push factors in voting. I believe most polls show that a larger percentage of people are saying their vote for Trump is really an anti-Hillary vote. Hillary has quite a few "not Trump" supporters too.

BUT, the important thing is, it's harder to get people who are voting against something to the polls, especially if it looks like your horse is losing. This is where ground game and GOTV comes to play. Trump has none of this. If you're a bitter queen who is voting for Trump because you dislike Hillary, but polls show her winning fairly handily....and you have no contact from the Trump campaign....what you gonna do? You gonna go vote or you gonna stay home?
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Nafai1123 said:
I don't think Hillary will need to spend too much time fact checking for it to be effective, especially since a lot of the stuff he lies about is directly tied to her or her policies.

Eg.

Trump: "Hillary wants to get rid of the second amendment allowing you to own guns."

Clinton: "Mr. Trump has claimed this time and time again, and every time it has been categorically false. Let me tell you about my real plan for gun regulation, which will still allow gun owners their rights under the constitution."

Considering Trump has no substance to his policies, I think he will be spending a lot of time attacking Hillary's. This will be the perfect time for her then respond by fact checking him and informing of what her actual policy will be.
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That is what she is probably going to do and it isn't like she is going to do nothing but fact check. The debate might shatter records; many people will fact check themselves like what happened during some debates google search of a term went up.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
My one and only hope for the debate.

Trump starts bragging on his polls. Maybe he says he's up in Arizona or some shit.

HRC: The american people don't need poll numbers, they need ideas for how to solve the problems in the country. They need serious leaders who respect the consitution, and who spend their time thinking about mental health and child care, rather than what country the president was born in.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Hey ModBot.. I see what you did there in that OT thread. ;)

ModBot said:
Unless the direction changes, discuss daily polls in PoliGAF, thanks. The only polls posted as threads in OT should be new polls that show a significant difference from the status quo.
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U

User 463088

Banned
You can also fact check people quickly with a quip. Think Reagan's "There you go again" line. It tells people that something is wrong with whatever the hell Trump just said, but it doesn't appear condescending (arguable?) nor does it make you feel stupid for not knowing whatever it is that Hillary's correcting him on.

You could easily get away with "Donald, that's just not true...." six or seven times. Or "And, again, what Mr. Trump just said is factually inaccurate."
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Boke1879 said:
I mean you do rebut things. That's typical in a debate and she'll have to do that here as well, and sure. It's ok to fact check him with his own words.

I doubt she'll be doing that all debate, but she does need to hit back when he makes some outrageous claim or tries to walk something back.
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You need to be very careful with it. I was on the university debate team (yes, yes, but I competed internationally and all), and fact-checking is dangerous. The judge (in this case, the American public) doesn't know the facts. If both sides present different facts, the judge will go with who they trust more, which means just reaffirming the judgements they already had. You can't just say to Trump "you're wrong about this; the case is this". Doesn't work, won't work. If she does, Trump will spout off some bullshit about "Crooked Clinton is lying to you again, this is actually the case!", be fundamentally unchallenged, and we'll be waking up to maximum bedwetting with the next set of polls.

Instead, you need to give the audience some sort of independent reason to trust your case. The trick I always found worked was "even if"; where you give two separate rebuttals. The first is just the usual "you're wrong about this; so this instead"; but the second is "but even if you were right, here's why your policy is so bad". It's much more effective for two reasons. Firstly, the fact your case stands in both worlds gives you the independent credibility to lever people towards your world, secondly, it gives the people not in your world something to persuade them with well. This is really easy to do for Trump because e.g. even in his own world where Mexicans are pouring over the border, building a wall does almost nothing and costs a huge amount of money that could actually have been spent on more border enforcement staff; Trump's just out to waste your money.

I'm always reminded of this cartoon:

what-if-its-all-a-hoax-cartoon.jpg


and I'm amazed this point isn't made seriously more often. Okay, even in the world where global warming was a hoax... we've got more efficient power sources that are totally renewable and lead to less air pollution, so what did we really lose?

Basically, flip Trump's own table on him. That's how she'd win.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
BiggNife said:
I was literally just thinking that it's a relief that Johnson didn't make the cut for the debates. It would only hurt Hillary and help Trump.
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I don't know - because there's also a chance that a lot of the folks who are Dem leaning but not enthused about Clinton are voting Johnson as a protest vote without knowing how, uh, conservative he is. Him being on the debate floor and articulating those views may drive a lot of them back to the Democratic side, meh feelings for Clinton and all.

adam387 said:
One of the unspoken things that people aren't talking about are the push factors in voting. I believe most polls show that a larger percentage of people are saying their vote for Trump is really an anti-Hillary vote. Hillary has quite a few "not Trump" supporters too.

BUT, the important thing is, it's harder to get people who are voting against something to the polls, especially if it looks like your horse is losing. This is where ground game and GOTV comes to play. Trump has none of this. If you're a bitter queen who is voting for Trump because you dislike Hillary, but polls show her winning fairly handily....and you have no contact from the Trump campaign....what you gonna do? You gonna go vote or you gonna stay home?
Click to expand...

As I said; if you assume that the known qualitative factors remaining in the campaign cycle are going to help Hillary (which is a reasonable assumption as it currently stands), you're basically seeing that Clinton's floor is 40%, and Trump's ceiling is 40%. Trump's only real path to victory is to have super crappy turnout for Clinton and have insane turnout for himself. The pneumonia / deplorables weekend might have been the lowest point so far for Clinton, and she was still in a tie with Trump...which is a pretty good sign.

Now, prediction models can't take into account these qualitative factors before they happen (because...that would be insanely stupid to assume who would win a given debate, etc) - but if the factors shake out for Clinton as expected, you may see all of them push towards 70-75% or so for Clinton. (Public GOTV modeling is pure guesswork, as always)
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I think Johnson being on the debate stage would be pretty good for Clinton. She just needs to mention some of the more, uh, bizarre Libertarian policies and force him to either defend them or back down. Johnson gets a lot of votes from people who are naturally pretty leftwing but know nothing about him other than that he's an isolationist who'd legalize weed. If they know more, his ship would start sinking sharpish; and he's not a good media performer so it'd be easy to do. Plus, more importantly, it takes more airtime away from Trump.
 
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