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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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N

nature boy

Member
LOL Trump winning all states in the Fox News poll.


Cs58XWmUEAE3x5Z.jpg




http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
StoOgE said:
He doesn't want Trump to be president most likely.
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This, and it's also really risky. Johnson's platform is to the right of Clinton's; if he actually attacks Clinton with his own policies, he risks alienating a fairly large part of his own vote who are disaffected millennials who are policywise not far from Clinton but dislike her. He's doing well precisely because his voters are low-information. He won't want to actually inform them.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Crab said:
He only saps her support if he outperforms her. Are we suddenly lacking in confidence again? I thought Clinton was going to smash the debates?
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I saw some numbers that suggested most Americans think she will win, but not at the confidence levels that people had in the last few years with Obama. She is a pretty good debater and comes off as extremely competent when speaking off the cuff. I actually thought she was a better debater in 08 than Obama was.

Trump did well in large crowds when he could disappear into the background when he didn't know what people were talking about and then reemerge to personally insult someone every now and again.

Off teleprompter Trump is the Trump that gets himself in the most trouble, and he'll be off teleprompter and unable to hide in the background for 90 minutes. He's going to goof up.

How bad and how often is the question, and how well will personal attacks and deflection stick with your average voter. Hopefully him being light on actual policy details or knowledge will hurt him, but so far it has not.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's kind of weird that national polls are showing Clinton up by miles at the same time as state polls showing her really close. It makes me worry she's running up safely Democratic states to high margins, but not managing to spread the map.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Lame Fox poll.

At some point, the total lack of organizational support in Ohio for Trump has to hurt him... Or maybe organization and party support doesn't matter.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
StoOgE said:
I saw some numbers that suggested most Americans think she will win, but not at the confidence levels that people had in the last few years with Obama. She is a pretty good debater and comes off as extremely competent when speaking off the cuff. I actually thought she was a better debater in 08 than Obama was.

Trump did well in large crowds when he could disappear into the background when he didn't know what people were talking about and then reemerge to personally insult someone every now and again.

Off teleprompter Trump is the Trump that gets himself in the most trouble, and he'll be off teleprompter and unable to hide in the background for 90 minutes. He's going to goof up.

How bad and how often is the question, and how well will personal attacks and deflection stick with your average voter. Hopefully him being light on actual policy details or knowledge will hurt him, but so far it has not.
Click to expand...

Given he, for some insane reason, brought the birther thing back, he'll have to answer questions on it. That's not an issue he can win any points on because most people see it as an insane conspiracy theory and the media covers it as such. Unless they can sear a good answer to why he bought into it into his brain (there isn't a good answer to this fyi) that's going to be the story the next day, alongside his other fuck ups.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Crab said:
It's kind of weird that national polls are showing Clinton up by miles at the same time as state polls showing her really close. It makes me worry she's running up safely Democratic states to high margins, but not managing to spread the map.
Click to expand...
State polls move slower than national polls
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NYCmetsfan said:
ohio fox

I respect the poll but this has to be an outlier. This just can't be true and is the opposite of most polls
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Fox has had some decent polls this round. Wouldn't surprise me to see Hillary down in all three states, but the women thing is WAY, way off. No way.

Edit: Wait, it's Ohio? Eh...that might not surprise me that much, actually.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Those Fox polls were conducted by a Republican pollster and a Democratic pollster, so while it's Fox, there's no reason to suspect skewing.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
ohio fox

I respect the poll but this has to be an outlier. This just can't be true and is the opposite of most polls
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Agreed.

To my knowledge Hillary has been ahead of Obama on women in past polls, I don't see that demographic swinging by that much prior to the election.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
nature boy said:
Those Fox polls were conducted by a Republican pollster and a Democratic pollster, so while it's Fox, there's no reason to suspect skewing.
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I'm not questioning it because of Fox. But I'm questioning any poll that shows Hillary with support of little more than 1/3rd of respondents in a swing state where she has been shown to be ahead consistently and is polling in the mid to high 40s nationally.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Just throw it onto the pile and let things settle after the debates. Right now at the least it seems pretty close in a lot of swing states even if she has a decent national lead.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
HylianHistorian said:
Plenty of time to turn things around in any combination of those states if not all in the poll.
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Agreed.

Certainly not a GOOD result but she's not so far down the hole in any of those states with those numbers that she couldn't turn them around.

Also a 7-point national lead doesn't jive with a deficit in Nevada, North Carolina or even Ohio. It's a matter of who you're willing to put more stock in, I guess. That national lead does back up Plouffe's point about NH being the tipping point though (NH having a slight D lean).
 
T

TheCrow

Member
There was a guy on my bus ranting and raving about how Hillary is going to win and that's it's time for a woman to run the world. He's definitely on the hopium.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Zukkoyaki said:
Your favorite, Nate Silver, said this himself in late August, early September when the race began tightening in national polls.
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Nate's not my favourite; I just think you guys let partisanship cloud your judgement on him. You can feel free to link me to where he said this, because I've not seen it, but from what I know, state polls only lag national polls because national polls tend to have shorter sampling periods because you need a relatively smaller sample compared to the population, so they reflect the last few days, whereas the slower state polls tend to reflect up to the last week (or even two). That shouldn't apply to this Fox poll.

EDIT: On a different note, I wish pollsters in the US had to do a full methodology disclosure. Too many companies not revealing their RV -> LV screening. As a psephophile, it's really rather annoying!
 
N

nature boy

Member
StoOgE said:
I'm not questioning it because of Fox. But I'm questioning any poll that shows Hillary with support of little more than 1/3rd of respondents in a swing state where she has been shown to be ahead consistently and is polling in the mid to high 40s nationally.
Click to expand...

Suffolk showed her at 39, but this is her lowest in Ohio.
But polls show Trump ahead.

PBY said:
Foxnews has historically been good to pretty good with their polls.
Click to expand...

DrForester said:
Fox is actually a respected pollster and those numbers should be taken seriously.
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Yeah didn't mean to question their integrity.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
StoOgE said:
I'm not questioning it because of Fox. But I'm questioning any poll that shows Hillary with support of little more than 1/3rd of respondents in a swing state where she has been shown to be ahead consistently and is polling in the mid to high 40s nationally.
Click to expand...

About that ahead consistently part....

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

It's been in decent Trump has a lead territory for about a month and a half now

Also, state polls lag national polls (hence the adjustments Silver and Upshot make), so look at the dates the polls were conducted as well.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
It is really hard to reconcile all the polls we're getting. My hypothesis is that Hillary is up +2 or +3 nationally but some states have shifted red or are more susceptible to Trump's message like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Virginia and Colorado are likely leaning more blue, as are some states like Georgia, South Carolina, and Arizona where it won't help her much. The net effect of the state shifts are that Hillary's voters are stretched more thinly and inefficiently this time around. This produces some wild poll results.
 
D

DataStream

Member
Those FOX polls hurt, but I find it really hard to believe she has fallen so much below her established floor.

At least it doesn't show Trump breaking his ceiling.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Crab said:
I think Johnson being on the debate stage would be pretty good for Clinton. She just needs to mention some of the more, uh, bizarre Libertarian policies and force him to either defend them or back down. Johnson gets a lot of votes from people who are naturally pretty leftwing but know nothing about him other than that he's an isolationist who'd legalize weed. If they know more, his ship would start sinking sharpish; and he's not a good media performer so it'd be easy to do. Plus, more importantly, it takes more airtime away from Trump.
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Voysa Reezun said:
Man, I want to give Johnson exposure. As soon as he says, "Oh, and fuck Social Security," he immediately becomes non-viable to practically the whole country. We can stop pretending that the Libertarian Party is somehow a reasonable conservative alternative to the GOP.
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This is why I don't want him there. Y'all are confusing Johnson with the Libertarian Party, but he's not that far off from a hijacker. The guy actually had a pretty contested primary in the sense that actual Libertarians divert a decent bit from Johnson. Sure, he's moved since he was a Republican, but not so much that he matches the insanity that his party represents. If you try to pin him down on the anarchist stuff that the Party believes, he can pretty easily just go, "No, I don't believe that. Some people in my party believe that, but it's not my position."

And I'd definitely argue that unless the event is super scripted, Trump can't last very long in the public eye without fucking up badly. The longer he has to stand there and come up with answers, the better for Clinton. I agree with Crab that her best move is to Bernie him and just ignore him; she can use her time to sound presidential as fuck and just spout policy the whole time. It's boring, but we now have polling that implies people may be looking for boring and safe right now. Let Trump have his spotlight and start rambling. He can probably think up enough canned statements to last for the first half, but since his prep is apparently not very thorough at all, I doubt he can do much more without going off the cuff.

Pretend you're Trump's campaign manager. Is the phrase "Trump is going off the cuff" a phrase that makes you feel hopeful? Or do you flinch and suppress a panic attack?

Cybit said:
Yeah - I think Conway realized that the only way for Trump to win this election was to let Clinton lose it rather than Trump try to win it, and the Clinton's camp strategy of trying to run out the clock was the exact wrong strategy (since it would just energize anti-Clinton voters and de-energize Pro-Clinton voters). I think Clinton and her camp have realized that their path to victory isn't trying to shame Trump voters, it's trying to give voters someone to vote for instead of against Trump. (Despite the moral superiority one gets from shaming Trump supporters, it has been politically ineffective the entire time, and has simultaneously raised his floor)
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I agree with the Trump strategy from his camp, but that "anti-shaming" thing as zero proof, and I'd argue the opposite. Trump's floor hasn't been raised at all (but I feel like I'm only repeating this discussion again. I simply don't agree with you that not that many people are actually racist, so I won't rehash that here unless you want me to).

But honestly, Clinton was right to fundraise like crazy. I guarantee that when we look back on this election in a few years, we'll all barely remember August, if not outright praise it as a good resource farm for the back stretch.

The election isn't held in August, and you need money. Why not burn a non-consequential month for resources? Because she (and the DNC) are drowning in cash right now, and I'd take that over some feel good polls in August any day.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Ecotic said:
It is really hard to reconcile all the polls we're getting. My hypothesis is that Hillary is up +2 or +3 nationally but some states have shifted red or are more susceptible to Trump's message like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Virginia and Colorado are likely leaning more blue, as are some states like Georgia, South Carolina, and Arizona where it won't help her much. The net effect of the state shifts are that Hillary's voters are stretched more thinly and inefficiently this time around. This produces some wild poll results.
Click to expand...

Yup.

Fairly certain she's going to lose Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona now.

Iowa, Nevada and Florida are going to be reallly tight, but think she wins? Who knows.
 
D

Dierce

Member
I also don't think she will win Ohio. That state is very susceptible to orange turd's fear-mongering and ignorant 'blame everyone but the whites bigots for America's failure' message. On the bright side it will be good to see Ohio no longer be labeled a must win state.
 
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