What the hell is that? He didn't even deny it, just said that it's not a controversy, because.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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What the hell is that? He didn't even deny it, just said that it's not a controversy, because.
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Black Mamba
Member
This.
In fact, every pollster unskews. They have to, unless they spend a fortune polling.
538 is the biggest poll unskewer of them all. They just do it with different things, like trendlines (which I think is awful and is why the model is being exposed right now) and other things (pricing in a convention bounce).
The problem isn't with unskewing, per se, but rather how you do it. As you said, the 2012 guy did it wrong (party ID), not something tangible.
eBay Huckster
Member
because everyone saw how Dean Chambers was treated for doing it badly and decided well fuck, I'd better piss my fucking pants every time I see anyone doing it period
What the fuck does "The foundation is really rare" EVEN MEAN.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Well, those are words in a particular order I guess.
whyamihere
Banned
Area man says someone is wrong.
Poodlestrike
Banned
In better news:
Ian Sams
‏@IanSams
NEW --> The gang is getting back together: the cast of The West Wing will campaign for @HillaryClinton in stops across Ohio this weekend.
Forreal. Screw Will, get Rob Lowe in there!
I got you fam
Also, I am so crushed we're never going to get another season of Alpha House at this rate because watching the guys cope with the stranger-than-fiction that is Trump would be amazing.
I think it's more "they started out racist and have done nothing but fester as their situation deteriorates and by improving their circumstances we could open them up to new ideas even though it's not our fault they started out racist in the first place."
Which, you know, sounds reasonable to me.
trying to pick up votes in West Philadelphia, probably
Black Mamba
Member
This is not a good answer for him. This needs to be asked more often, too.
whyamihere
Banned
This is not a good answer for him. This needs to be asked more often, too.
I hope this is what he says in the debate.
This is not a good answer for him. This needs to be asked more often, too.
Yup. Basically. Nothing really changed. I just want to move on because it's not convenient for me anymore.
People need to hammer him on that.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Clearly. You can't be up that much nationally with those numbers in swing states.
This is just gibberish. It's not even proper sentences, or a coherent thought. It looks like it was generated using a text generator
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I don't think you can use this election to project shit in future elections...
That's just me though.
User 463088
Banned
You clearly didn't read what I wrote. I simply said there is no reason a pollster doesn't release complete demographic information. This isn't just my critique. This is, you know, good polling practice.
Secondly, if they lack an adequate non-white sample to have reliable information, then, you know, poll more people.
CNN can do it.
CBS YouGov managed to do it
Qunnipiac Manage to do it.
This is not a ridiculous thing to ask for!
They managed to give us a breakdown of Independents, who they laughingly think will make up only 16% of the electorate. People of color will make up a similar percentage of the electorate, so there is no reason they couldn't have figured this shit out. Unless, of course, they are projecting a very white electorate. Which would be fine, but we have no way of knowing that because they don't release that information!
Maybe he's referring to foundations in which the person who owns the foundation doesn't actually invest any of their own money in it. That's pretty rare!
balladofwindfishes
Member
I was thinking it would be +1 Ohio and the other two tied, the results weren't really what I was expecting at all, given the very optimistic other polls that came out today.
nature boy
Member
I thought the Fox Ohio poll was a bit too R in their sample, but it's in line with other polls so IDK. Guessing turnout is the big question going forward.
Good thing we have Rassss to help us tomorrow.
Good thing we have Rassss to help us tomorrow.
Black Mamba
Member
...what?
Spiritreaver
Member
English?
Fox News polls hurt, but, overall, I don't think we're going to get much quality polling until after the debate (which is bad, since we need to know how much the debate changed things).
Still hoping that NBC poll is more representative of how things stand now than those state polls, which, by the way, do lag more than national polls in terms of measuring trends, according to Silver.
Still hoping that NBC poll is more representative of how things stand now than those state polls, which, by the way, do lag more than national polls in terms of measuring trends, according to Silver.
whyamihere
Banned
I don't doubt that Hillary will win. But what scares me is where this country is going for 2020.
What kind of terrifies me is that we're seeing a realignment akin to what's happening in Britain at the moment where left-parties cannot compete outside of major urban areas and there is a collapse of white voters within the party. Like, I look at where Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan/Ohio are right now, and I wonder what it looks like when that support evaporates for Democrats. There are only so many minority voters, and there aren't enough in the country to form a coalition. And while Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina are definitely getting bluer, the nightmare scenario I have in my head is where Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio all go red before Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina really transition to a Virginia-like electorate
There's also something bizarre where we're going to have a party built on multicultural urbanism versus rural nationalistic populism (and this worries me also!), but here we are.
What kind of terrifies me is that we're seeing a realignment akin to what's happening in Britain at the moment where left-parties cannot compete outside of major urban areas and there is a collapse of white voters within the party. Like, I look at where Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan/Ohio are right now, and I wonder what it looks like when that support evaporates for Democrats. There are only so many minority voters, and there aren't enough in the country to form a coalition. And while Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina are definitely getting bluer, the nightmare scenario I have in my head is where Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio all go red before Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina really transition to a Virginia-like electorate
There's also something bizarre where we're going to have a party built on multicultural urbanism versus rural nationalistic populism (and this worries me also!), but here we are.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
"Propensity to panic?" LOL
The ridiculous merging of "concern" and "panic" from some of you is bizarre. People are becoming way too absolute. When some of us voiced concern that Hillary may not be that great of a candidate a few months back, we were roundly criticized--"She's a perfectly likeable candidate!" Polls say otherwise. When some of us mentioned that it looked like the race was tightening a month or so ago, we were roundly criticized--"Statistical noise! Trump's ceiling is 40! It's not tightening!" Polls say otherwise. When some of us said, "This race is far from over" while most on here were going "OH MAN Hillary has this IN THE BAG" 2-3 months ago, we were roundly criticized. Again, polls say otherwise.
Whether you want to admit it or not, some of you have a tendency to react poorly to negative news/situations. Like you can't handle even talking about it, and I find it bizarre, especially when so many (rightfully) criticize republicans for the exact same thing.
I like back and forth debate. Saying "Hillary had a bad month" and needs to change some things up isn't "panic." It is by no means "THE RACE IS OVER!!!!" All it is is merely a conversation starter.
nature boy
Member
I would definitely put more weight in the NBC/WSJ poll compared to any other national poll, simply because the pollsters on both sides of the poll are as experienced as you get.
shinra-bansho
Member
Like I'm all for policies that help out even the deplorable scumbag racists and bigots of the world or whatever. They've been hurt by the lack of trade adjustment. They're dumb because of their shitty education.
But I'm kind of over boohooing for them specifically and coddling their shitty racism.
Win without them and then help them as well.
But I'm kind of over boohooing for them specifically and coddling their shitty racism.
Win without them and then help them as well.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Isn't the Fox News poll done by both a republican and democrat pollster, or am I mistaking that for another?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Switching over to a national popular vote would be immensely helpful in this scenario so Democrats could focus on ginning up urban turnout.
Also I would say Michigan and Wisconsin are at least a cycle behind Iowa and Ohio in terms of trending R. Several for Michigan.
In reality it's more that 2/10 want trump to be president and another 2/10 want literally anyone other than Hillary for president. Not that it's much better.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I used to live in an area (northern Michigan) where that number is probably 7 or 8 out of 10. It's horrible.
whyamihere
Banned
nature boy
Member
Yes Fox follows the same model, but Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research are veterans.
Peter Hart has done the NBC polls since the 80s and has done election polls since the 60s.
If you can tolerate Axelrod, the Axe Files has an episode with him.
whyamihere
Banned
Also, this.
Also, this is the easiest way to explain why some states are so competitive:
This would explain the divergence between Iowa and New Hampshire despite both states voting at almost the exact same % for Obama (literally, IA: 51.99%, NH: 51.98%). And why Pennsylvania is out of reach, and probably Michigan too.
This also explains why tribalism is Trump's strategy.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The actual quote is:
Which doesn't say anything but he came closer to actual sentences than the bad transcript indicates.
Which doesn't say anything but he came closer to actual sentences than the bad transcript indicates.
whyamihere
Banned
At least this is English.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean, this is an arguable statement.
But this quote certainly comes closer to English.
These polls are good. I'm not too worried about the Fox poll, yet.
Someone posted a Brexit related article earlier today, and I thought it made a pretty good point about the folly of trying to counter emotion with reason. That's a losing battle most of the time, and I hope the Clinton campaign is learning that lesson.
That's why I think it would be a bad idea for Hillary to spend too much time trying TTY fact check everything Trump says at the debate.
Someone posted a Brexit related article earlier today, and I thought it made a pretty good point about the folly of trying to counter emotion with reason. That's a losing battle most of the time, and I hope the Clinton campaign is learning that lesson.
That's why I think it would be a bad idea for Hillary to spend too much time trying TTY fact check everything Trump says at the debate.
I dont get this it has nothing to do with anything lol
That is one scenario, yes, but there are also big differences between the U.S. and Britain:
As much as the Trump coalition is nationalistic, the majority of Americans aren't, i.e. the Obama coalition proves that the demographics are there for a continuous hold on the presidency by Democrats, and by 2020, Georgia, Arizona and perhaps even Texas will trend purple enough for Dems to lose rust-belt whites and still win.
And at the same time, much of the populist rhetoric enraging whites in rural parts of the country isn't that incompatible with many Dem policies that a candidate with appeal both to populist whites and minorities
Just as a no-so-racist nationalistic Republican could dominate in 2020, so can a pro-multiculturalism populist Democrat dominate 2020, and it's not impossible that Hillary could garner enough good will during her term for a probable reelection.
Having said that, it's not going to be easy for Dems to hold on to the presidency for a 4th straight time, unless Hillary gets massively popular and the Republicans again screw up with their candidate, or if Hillary declines re election (as if) and Dems go for a younger change candidate also.
metalslimer
Member
Trump praised stop and frisk at a town hall on minority issues? Hahahaha
It's really more like a platform white solutions to non-white issues.
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