What the hell is that? He didn't even deny it, just said that it's not a controversy, because.
The bolded seems like bad unskewing, were you to correct based on that.RV for Nevada: 3 way
Trump: 39
Clinton: 38
In two way he is up 3. The funny thing is he is at 31-36 with latinos in the poll.
North Carolina:
He is up 4 in 3 way and up 5 in two way
Ohio:
4 way he is up 3
2 way he is up 3
The polls all under sample Democrats and indy compared to 2012 exit polling.
I don't know why people are afraid of "unskewing". All the aggregators that don't just simply average poll results do it. As long as you have good/scientific reason for doing so, there's nothing wrong with it. The "unskewing" by that whack job in 2012 was based on nothing but wishful thinking.
I don't know why people are afraid of "unskewing".
@Redistrict
Between new NBC/WSJ national poll & Fox News state polls, someone's wrong.
In better news:
Ian Sams
‏@IanSams
NEW --> The gang is getting back together: the cast of The West Wing will campaign for @HillaryClinton in stops across Ohio this weekend.
But where is Sam?
I got you fam
They became racist because they were ignored? Is that like "I'm a nice guy to you why won't you have sex with me bitch whore"?
What the fuck does "The foundation is really rare" EVEN MEAN.
This is not a good answer for him. This needs to be asked more often, too.
This is not a good answer for him. This needs to be asked more often, too.
Area man says someone is wrong.
The WI are really worrying. Not in the sense that I think Hillary will lose, but it looks like it's a sign that it's going to be a red state by the next election.
adam pls
best advice here was to throw it in the pile and wait.
What the fuck does "The foundation is really rare" EVEN MEAN.
The solid polls out of Florida this week in addition to the few solid national polls leads me to think the Fox polls are the ones that are a tad off. I could buy Trump leading in those, but 3-5 sounds a bit high to me.
BG: "And with the Washington Post report out this week about the Trump Foundation. Could you explain to people why you may have used some charitable donations for personal uses?
Trump: "The foundation is really rare. It gives money to that. It's really been doing a good job. I think we put that to sleep just by putting out the last report."
English?...what?
What, you mean the post where it's abundantly clear I'm being snarky about your propensity to panic?
Fox News polls hurt, but, overall, I don't think we're going to get much quality polling until after the debate (which is bad, since we need to know how much the debate changed things).
Still hoping that NBC poll is more representative of how things stand now than those state polls, which, by the way, do lag more than national polls in terms of measuring trends, according to Silver.
I would definitely put more weight in the NBC/WSJ poll compared to any other national poll, simply because the pollsters on both sides of the poll are as experienced as you get.
Switching over to a national popular vote would be immensely helpful in this scenario so Democrats could focus on ginning up urban turnout.I don't doubt that Hillary will win. But what scares me is where this country is going for 2020.
What kind of terrifies me is that we're seeing a realignment akin to what's happening in Britain at the moment where left-parties cannot compete outside of major urban areas and there is a collapse of white voters within the party. Like, I look at where Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan/Ohio are right now, and I wonder what it looks like when that support evaporates for Democrats. There are only so many minority voters, and there aren't enough in the country to form a coalition. And while Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina are definitely getting bluer, the nightmare scenario I have in my head is where Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio all go red before Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina really transition to a Virginia-like electorate
There's also something bizarre where we're going to have a party built on multicultural urbanism versus rural nationalistic populism (and this worries me also!), but here we are.
In reality it's more that 2/10 want trump to be president and another 2/10 want literally anyone other than Hillary for president. Not that it's much better.The only thing that scares me is knowing roughly 4/10 I meet on a daily basis wanted Donald Trump to be their President :*(
The only thing that scares me is knowing roughly 4/10 people I run into on a daily basis wanted Donald Trump to be their President :*(
Isn't the Fox News poll done by both a republican and democrat pollster, or am I mistaking that for another?
@DanaHoule
I’ve looked and never found more than a few local Dems the “Dem” pollster has as clients. Seem more like market researchers.
Isn't the Fox News poll done by both a republican and democrat pollster, or am I mistaking that for another?
Yes Fox follows the same model, but Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research are veterans.
Peter Hart has done the NBC polls since the 80s and has done election polls since the 60s.
If you can tolerate Axelrod, the Axe Files has an episode with him.
@PatrickRuffini
1/ Estimated share of non-college whites (RV, voter file estimates)
ME 67.5%
IA 56.1%
WI 52.8%
NV 52.8%
NH 51.0%
OH 49.5%
MI 49.1%
PA 46.7%
@PatrickRuffini
.@RonBrownstein College whites in these states:
ME 29.9%
IA 38.5%
WI 41.9%
NV 22.9%
NH 47.4%
OH 36.0%
MI 34.0%
PA 39.6%
Trump: "The foundation is really there. It gives money to vets. It's really been doing a good job. I think we put that to sleep just by putting out the last report."
The actual quote is:
Which doesn't say anything but he came closer to actual sentences than the bad transcript indicates.
At least this is English.
I dont get this it has nothing to do with anything lolThe actual quote is:
Which doesn't say anything but he came closer to actual sentences than the bad transcript indicates.
I don't doubt that Hillary will win. But what scares me is where this country is going for 2020.
What kind of terrifies me is that we're seeing a realignment akin to what's happening in Britain at the moment where left-parties cannot compete outside of major urban areas and there is a collapse of white voters within the party. Like, I look at where Iowa/Wisconsin/Michigan/Ohio are right now, and I wonder what it looks like when that support evaporates for Democrats. There are only so many minority voters, and there aren't enough in the country to form a coalition. And while Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina are definitely getting bluer, the nightmare scenario I have in my head is where Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio all go red before Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina really transition to a Virginia-like electorate
There's also something bizarre where we're going to have a party built on multicultural urbanism versus rural nationalistic populism (and this worries me also!), but here we are.
Trump praised stop and frisk at a town hall on minority issues? Hahahaha