Support NeoGAF

[User1608]

Agreed.

Certainly not a GOOD result but she's not so far down the hole in any of those states with those numbers that she couldn't turn them around.

Also a 7-point national lead doesn't jive with a deficit in Nevada, North Carolina or even Ohio. It's a matter of who you're willing to put more stock in, I guess. That national lead does back up Plouffe's point about NH being the tipping point though (NH having a slight D lean).

Agreed with your points. We'll have to see what happens. Very interesting for sure though.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Yup.

Fairly certain she's going to lose Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona now.

Iowa, Nevada and Florida are going to be reallly tight, but think she wins? Who knows.

Aggregates have her more likely to win NC than Iowa, I think.

I also don't see how you can be sure that she'll lose Ohio, but not Iowa.

 

[whyamihere]

when your take is too hot

@DrJillStein
In Russia, establishment parties swept parliament largely because the media ignores or marginalizes opposition parties. Sound familiar?

first reply:

@ashleyfeinberg
@DrJillStein i can’t hear you over the wi-fi

 

[nature boy]

Trump one to two points behind in Ohio with union workers?

 

[whyamihere]

I think it's pretty clear she's losing Ohio at the moment!

 

[Crayons]

goddamnit adam

 

[Iolo]

NC result is more surprising than OH in my opinion. Ohio result is more in line with recent polls.

 

[nature boy]

I think it's pretty clear she's losing Ohio at the moment!

I've already said that, but she shouldn't be ahead by so little with unions. I guess it's an opportunity.

 

[Plinko]

Who was it that yesterday said they just put $500 on Hillary winning Ohio?

 

[NeoXChaos]

I think its pretty clear she is losing Iowa, Maine-2 and Ohio at the moment!

Who was it that yesterday said they just put $500 on Hillary winning Ohio?

Still a good bet to make.

 

[PBY]

Aggregates have her more likely to win NC than Iowa, I think.

I also don't see how you can be sure that she'll lose Ohio, but not Iowa.

You're right; totally got Iowa/NC numbers flipped and wrong.

 

[nature boy]

And we need updated #s from CO and VA.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yup.

Fairly certain she's going to lose Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona now.

Iowa, Nevada and Florida are going to be reallly tight, but think she wins? Who knows.

Making any firm proclamations about states where Clinton/Obama are actually campaigning seems silly before the debates as they'll likely be a big game changer.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I've already said that, but she shouldn't be ahead by so little with unions. I guess it's an opportunity.

Why are we surprised she is doing poorly with the unions? Trump is the candidate of the white, working class.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The white racist working class subgroup.

 

[nature boy]

Why are we surprised she is doing poorly with the unions? Trump is the candidate of the white, working class.

Unions should be able to better persuade their members.

 

[Iolo]

Not all people in unions are white fyi

 

[Plinko]

I think its pretty clear she is losing Iowa, Maine-2 and Ohio at the moment!



Still a good bet to make.

I don't know. Of all the swing states, Ohio is the one I'd think would go Trump before any other.

 

[studyguy]

538 needs to stop trying to make Johnson happen.
Dude didn't make the cut, simple as that.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The white racist working class subgroup.

Unfortunately, that's a large part of the working class by now, because they've been ignored and left to fester.

 

[Loudninja]

538 needs to stop trying to make Johnson happen.
Dude didn't make the cut, simple as that.

Whats up with that?

 

[Cybit]

This is why I don't want him there. Y'all are confusing Johnson with the Libertarian Party, but he's not that far off from a hijacker. The guy actually had a pretty contested primary in the sense that actual Libertarians divert a decent bit from Johnson. Sure, he's moved since he was a Republican, but not so much that he matches the insanity that his party represents. If you try to pin him down on the anarchist stuff that the Party believes, he can pretty easily just go, "No, I don't believe that. Some people in my party believe that, but it's not my position."

And I'd definitely argue that unless the event is super scripted, Trump can't last very long in the public eye without fucking up badly. The longer he has to stand there and come up with answers, the better for Clinton. I agree with Crab that her best move is to Bernie him and just ignore him; she can use her time to sound presidential as fuck and just spout policy the whole time. It's boring, but we now have polling that implies people may be looking for boring and safe right now. Let Trump have his spotlight and start rambling. He can probably think up enough canned statements to last for the first half, but since his prep is apparently not very thorough at all, I doubt he can do much more without going off the cuff.

Pretend you're Trump's campaign manager. Is the phrase "Trump is going off the cuff" a phrase that makes you feel hopeful? Or do you flinch and suppress a panic attack?

I like the idea of Johnson in the debate because for a third party he has pretty impressive support at this stage in the game, and I'm generally for loosening of the rules that suppress third party possibilities in a general election. I don't think it would matter to Clinton or Trump, because generally speaking, even with folks like Perot it didn't really matter, and Perot had way more support than Johnson.

I also have way more confidence in Clinton than most people here I think.

I agree with the Trump strategy from his camp, but that "anti-shaming" thing as zero proof, and I'd argue the opposite. Trump's floor hasn't been raised at all (but I feel like I'm only repeating this discussion again. I simply don't agree with you that not that many people are actually racist, so I won't rehash that here unless you want me to).

But honestly, Clinton was right to fundraise like crazy. I guarantee that when we look back on this election in a few years, we'll all barely remember August, if not outright praise it as a good resource farm for the back stretch.

The election isn't held in August, and you need money. Why not burn a non-consequential month for resources? Because she (and the DNC) are drowning in cash right now, and I'd take that over some feel good polls in August any day.

Yeah we won't rehash that other argument here.

My thoughts on the shaming thing is that it was the main line of attacks they used through July and August, and the numbers indicate that it did jack and squat. Both on a holistic level as well as looking at undecided numbers. You weren't seeing movement away from Trump into undecideds or movement away from the undecideds towards Clinton. All that happened is that you saw movement from away from Clinton primarily, and Trump getting a bit of a bump - between the highest point for Clinton so far to now is from 45.2 to 42 (3.2 drop), versus Trump going from 38.1 to 40.6 (2.5 increase) and Johnson going from 7.6 to 8. If it did have an effect, I'm not seeing what it was.

Now, if the shaming thing is the only way you can campaign while raising craptons of money, then the money aspect outweighs any lost opportunity. Also, at the time IIRC, there were designs of trying to take the House and the Senate, so money is more useful than increasing what was a big lead at the time. But I think she could have pushed the "Vote for me" strategy even while fundraising in August, instead of the "Vote against Trump" strategy.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

In the grand scheme the working class shift may be indicative of realignment.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Not all people in unions are white fyi

No, but unions are statistically whiter than they should be given their economic intake (manual labour). You can see that just by looking at the crosstabs.

 

[whyamihere]

I doubt the NBC/WSJ poll showing her doing so well with whites, and my guess is that Trump is doing better with men than it shows in that poll based on what we've seen elsewhere. I don't think she has a 6 point lead and most other recent polling would probably confirm this is an outlier and she's probably doing worse.

OTOH, the Nevada sample in the Fox poll is very white and very Republican (and I don't think Trump is getting 26% of the non-white vote in Nevada). That would be something.

The Ohio poll looks pretty good.

The NC poll is kind of a mess and goes against most of the what we see going on in NC. It has McCrory up by 3, which is not at all where that race is (and no one in NC thinks that McCrory will win), and has Clinton tied with women.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Who was it that yesterday said they just put $500 on Hillary winning Ohio?

What, you mean the post where it's abundantly clear I'm being snarky about your propensity to panic?

 

[Boke1879]

Going to be a lot of noise. Personally I think after the first couple of debates and the campaign blitz that will be October we'll see where things really end up.

 

[shinra-bansho]

They became racist because they were ignored? Is that like "I'm a nice guy to you why won't you have sex with me bitch whore"?

 

[kess]

In the grand scheme the working class shift may be indicative of realignment.

It's probably going to get worse as automation proceeds. Talking about Truck Drivers and Clerks losing their jobs as a Good Thing isn't going to appeal to people who haven't seen any upward wage movement in years -- and oppose minumum standard income theory as a welfare scheme.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

State polls usually lag national polls. By the end of the week, we'll probably see state polls move closer to where national polls seem to be heading over the last few days, with a movement towards Hillary.

 

[User 463088]

Unfortunately, that's a large part of the working class by now, because they've been ignored and left to fester.

No. They're racist because they're racist. Not because they didn't get treated like special, pretty little snowflakes. They're just racists.

 

[Fragamemnon]

No one in NC believes McRory isn't anywhere less than three points behind Cooper, and polls should be aligned with that in mind. If you LV screen and have McRory up by more than one you either have a wacky screen or you got a bad pull of data.

 

[Bowdz]

538 needs to stop trying to make Johnson happen.
Dude didn't make the cut, simple as that.

Seriously.

The Commission on Presidential Debates made it extremely clear last year what the threshold was for entry. Johnson failed to make the cut.

Let's remember that Ross Perot was polling at 39% in June back in 1992 (before the internet and 24 hour news allowed long shot candidates to propel themselves forward) and routinely polled above 15% despite dropping out of and getting back in the race.

The public doesn't want what Johnson is selling. Get over it.

 

[Nafai1123]

They became racist because they were ignored? Is that like "I'm a nice guy to you why won't you have sex with me bitch whore"?

These are different people?

I do think that racially isolated individuals who are suffering in this modern economy can look at minority groups who are doing well and feel like they have been ignored or left behind, and wrongfully blame those minority groups.

Basically, dey took er jerbs.

 

[Crayons]

They became racist because they were ignored? Is that like "I'm a nice guy to you why won't you have sex with me bitch whore"?

yes

 

[maabus1999]

Fox poll saying McCory leading by 3 points in NC? Yeah ok.....not happening. Poll has a very heavy slant away from dems.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Seriously.

The Commission on Presidential Debates made it extremely clear last year what the threshold was for entry. Johnson failed to make the cut.

Let's remember that Ross Perot was polling at 39% in June back in 1992 (before the internet and 24 hour news allowed long shot candidates to propel themselves forward) and routinely polled above 15% despite dropping out of and getting back in the race.

The public doesn't want what Johnson is selling. Get over it.

Nate is Libertarian I believe so I wouldn't be surprised if that was clouding his vision.

Ultimately I just don't think it's very appealing as an ideology. I think for most people if your inclination is generally progressive/conservative on social issues it will be on economic issues as well. Anecdotally speaking I'd say 99% of the time I see people shilling for the libertarians they try to sell it as supporting gay marriage and weed, without mentioning that this is born from apathy more than anything else and that they're completely at odds with Democrats on healthcare, environmentalism, financial regulations (and regulations in general) etc.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

I need something to listen to on my walks and keepin it 1600 is only on twice a week. Everything besides 1600 that I've tried listen to has been pretty awful.

If you haven't tried Primary Concerns, the New Republic podcast, I recommend it.

 

[whyamihere]

It's pretty hard to rectify both the NBC/WSJ poll and the Fox News polls, as both are from good pollsters tbh. I think a lot of this is LV screen shenanigans.

 

[Iolo]

Well, what are the Fox RV numbers? We got both for NBC. (And NBC LV screen is a bit odd, adding C+1. She's probably up by only 2 or 3 nationally.)

Good thing we have another high quality (hopefully) NC poll coming tomorrow. If that shows C-3 then time to wet ourselves a bit.

 

[User 463088]

I'm not unskewing anything but the fact that Fox News doesn't release the composition of the electorate makes it nearly impossible to have a good sense of what these numbers really mean.

Also, their Ohio poll doesn't even have a breakdown for non-white voters. I'm assuming that means the MoE was greater than 8.5% because they released numbers for all other groups. I have no idea how you can, in 2016, release a poll in a state where the African American vote will make up about 15% of the electorate and fail to get a sample decent enough to release. But whatever.

 

[Black Mamba]

About that ahead consistently part....

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

It's been in decent Trump has a lead territory for about a month and a half now

Also, state polls lag national polls (hence the adjustments Silver and Upshot make), so look at the dates the polls were conducted as well.

This is not accurate at all. Did you look at your link? The 538 lead switching happened just a week ago.

The clear change in polling in Ohio is mostly after Labor Day when pollsters moved to a LV screen.


The numbers are so low because the enthusiasm is down and the LV screens are not very good, IMO.

Again, people are looking too much at the differential and not the numbers! It's fucking late September and Ohio is being polled at 43-40-8. This is going to throw the models off! These numbers are too low!

Obama polled 47-53 in every RCP listed poll in post labor day Sept in 12. Romney 42-47.

I have to keep repeating this!!!

 

[thebloo]

She's not losing Ohio. I don't have $500 to bet, but she's not.

Adam lives there!

 

[PBY]

I'm not unskewing anything but the fact that Fox News doesn't release the composition of the electorate makes it nearly impossible to have a good sense of what these numbers really mean.

Also, their Ohio poll doesn't even have a breakdown for non-white voters. I'm assuming that means the MoE was greater than 8.5% because they released numbers for all other groups. I have no idea how you can, in 2016, release a poll in a state where the African American vote will make up about 15% of the electorate and fail to get a sample decent enough to release. But whatever.

adam pls


best advice here was to throw it in the pile and wait.

 

[Crisco]

I don't know why people are afraid of "unskewing". All the aggregators that don't just simply average poll results do it. As long as you have good/scientific reason for doing so, there's nothing wrong with it. The "unskewing" by that whack job in 2012 was based on nothing but wishful thinking.

 

[Iolo]

This is not accurate at all. Did you look at your link? The 538 lead switching happened just a week ago.

The clear change in polling in Ohio is mostly after Labor Day when pollsters moved to a LV screen.


The numbers are so low because the enthusiasm is down and the LV screens are not very good, IMO.

Again, people are looking too much at the differential and not the numbers! It's fucking late September and Ohio is being polled at 43-40-8. This is going to throw the models off! These numbers are too low!

Obama polled 47-53 in every RCP listed poll in post labor day Sept in 12. Romney 42-47.

I have to keep repeating this!!!

Looks to me like Gary Johnson has the most upside.

 

[Black Mamba]

FWIW, nobody is doing "shenanigans" except maybe Ras.

The pollsters don't know how to do the LV screen this election.

4 years ago right leaning pollsters were convinced the Obama coalition was dead and left were sure it held up.

But this time, all the pollsters seem a bit confused as to who will vote.

 

[StopMakingSense]

.

 

[somedevil]

Well, what are the Fox RV numbers? We got both for NBC.

RV for Nevada: 3 way

Trump: 39
Clinton: 38

In two way he is up 3. The funny thing is he is at 31-36 with latinos in the poll.

North Carolina:

He is up 4 in 3 way and up 5 in two way

Ohio:

4 way he is up 3
2 way he is up 3

The funny thing is they do union breakdown and no African america breakdown at all when they made up 15 percent in 2012.

The polls all under sample Democrats and indy compared to 2012 exit polling.

 

[whyamihere]

FWIW, nobody is doing "shenanigans" except maybe Ras.

The pollsters don't know how to do the LV screen this election.

4 years ago right leaning pollsters were convinced the Obama coalition was dead and left were sure it held up.

But this time, all the pollsters seem a bit confused as to who will vote.

Well, that's kind of what I meant.