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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
- Thread starter Crayons
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Judging by the last couple of days, I think they know that there's not much reasoning with Trump supporters, but Hillary has to recuperate the aura of the responsible one. She hit it out of the park today with her speech, and Michelle and the President all seem to be heading towards the same message of hope, stronger together and steady-as-she-goes policies. With a bit of Trump bashing on the side.
Although I think the President and Warren will mostly concentrate on attacking Trump as well. Hillary needs to stay on message.
Ohh FFS I read Nov as Oct on the axis and went backwards from there. My bad; nice catch.
Best way to explain the screwiness with the model is pointing out that there is a 3 pt gap with 9% undecided and 8% in a third party which tends to collapse towards 1% on Election Day. So, basically your undecided group is either 3x or 6x the gap. Hence - large uncertainty.
I honestly think the LV screens might be more correct right now than we'd like to admit - I think people are being really wishy washy at this point. I wonder what percentage of the country wants this election to just be a bad dream currently. I think the LVs might be capturing the "this election fucking sucks" sentiment and being thrown off by them.
Basileus777
Member
A collapse of white voters would leave the Democrats as a long-term minority party in Congress.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Even with all these grim polls, I still admire all of your positivity. For the first time, I'm truly starting to think that Clinton can't win.
How do you guys stay sane? I'm so depressed over everything right now
She has 273 EVs in states where she's up seven points or more over the aggregate. 272 if you want to take out ME-2, which of course is still enough to win.
In fact, she is almost surely going to win.
whyamihere
Banned
Even with all these grim polls, I still admire all of your positivity. For the first time, I'm truly starting to think that Clinton can't win.
How do you guys stay sane? I'm so depressed over everything right now
Because it's not just the Fox News polls that came out today. Monmouth has her up by 9 in NH and NBC has her up by 6 nationally. It was a mixed day!
Massachusetts isn't going red any time soon.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Even with all these grim polls, I still admire all of your positivity. For the first time, I'm truly starting to think that Clinton can't win.
How do you guys stay sane? I'm so depressed over everything right now
By realizing she is very much in the lead and the math of the electoral college is still secure with her winning.
when we talk collapse what numbers we looking at? Democrats are looking at minority status in the House for the next 10-20 years. They already have been locked out for the last 17 of 21 years since 95.
we talking collapse with all whites or collapse with midwestern rural whites like their south(Louisiana, Alabama) and plains counterparts(Kansas, Montana etc)??????
I wonder if Hillary's voter outreach program being massive compared to Trump's is going to skew the results in her favor come November. I mean, you can have people supporting you as a candidate, but if you don't get them off the couch to go vote then it's all for naught, right?
I have no idea which white voters Basileus was specifically referring to
I have no idea which white voters Basileus was specifically referring to
Even with all these grim polls, I still admire all of your positivity. For the first time, I'm truly starting to think that Clinton can't win.
How do you guys stay sane? I'm so depressed over everything right now
She can lose Nevada, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and that district in Maine and still win 272 to 266. That's not even mentioning the states in play that usually arent, like Utah, Arizona, and Georgia.
Even after her worst weeks, she is still winning. She is literally in the lead right now. And it's highly unlikely that Trump manages to take every single swing state.
whyamihere
Banned
We're seeing that now in North Carolina.
Yup.
This is why I think the worst case scenario prob will happen and she'll still win. I'm cool w that. She's not getting a supposed mandate or whatever even in a landslide.
Downballot more the concern
whyamihere
Banned
As others have pointed out, Clinton is even now in the lead and the electoral map is in her favor.Even with all these grim polls, I still admire all of your positivity. For the first time, I'm truly starting to think that Clinton can't win.
How do you guys stay sane? I'm so depressed over everything right now
Also, if this race is bothering you that bad I recommend stepping back from it and avoiding this thread, the polls, news, etc for a little while. I know it's tough and requires some willpower, but you can't let this affect your daily life. Go watch a good movie, play some games, see if any of your friends want to go do something
That Hillary ground game at work.
north carolina?
I know Delaware wouldn't be newsworthy if it sank to the bottom of the Atlantic, but I still found this amusing;
No shit, Chris. Even Diamond Joe wouldn't go that far off script. Still, glad I voted for him (though it's not like there was much of a choice between him and the anti-masturbation witch who is also me.)
No shit, Chris. Even Diamond Joe wouldn't go that far off script. Still, glad I voted for him (though it's not like there was much of a choice between him and the anti-masturbation witch who is also me.)
Iowa.
eBay Huckster
Member
Yes, "propensity to panic". There's a pretty distinct line between Cybit-posting (which has great value given his status, and is the yin to my and Aaron's yang) and what you've been doing, which has been posts amounting to "oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck the world is ending, oh fuck she can't possibly win X" based on single data points for the past month at a frequency that would make 2012 Diablos blush.
And, sorry, the "Clinton needs to do XYZ" debates are one step up from OT's merry band of complete political neophytes doing them (and are about ten steps down from actually talking to members of the campaign in terms of likelihood that they're points that haven't been rehashed to hell and back by some combination of royalan, adam and Crab over the past month).
Meant to say could*. Posted my thoughts earlier, I think she loses OH and wins Fl too
Finale Fireworker
Member
Even with all these grim polls, I still admire all of your positivity. For the first time, I'm truly starting to think that Clinton can't win.
How do you guys stay sane? I'm so depressed over everything right now
The only thing that works for me is to stop paying attention, which is difficult to do in its own right. If you can't handle the news, don't read the news. You then still have to deal with the anxiety of not knowing what's going on every day, but I find it easier than constantly refreshing PoliGAF and Google News.
whyamihere
Banned
That Hillary ground game at work.
Dems are down from 2012 iirc. Not at all similar to what we're seeing in NC.
User 463088
Banned
Iowa
That Hillary ground game at work.
Well look at that....
oh right it says iowa on it and stuff
if everyone voted along party lines, that's an 80k difference in iowa. obama won by 91k in 2012.
polling in iowa has been pretty shitty. things might be close and early voting might be down - but this could still make the difference.
whyamihere
Banned
Oh for sure. I'm just trying to provide context. On my phone but I believe at this point in 12, 90k Dems requested ballots.
eBay Huckster
Member
yep, that's in the first image Neo posted if i'm reading it right
whyamihere
Banned
My memory is on point.
yeah. I wonder how they got so many last time?
makingmusic476
Member
What's the significance of those Iowa figures?
My takeaway is that Trump has already hit Romney's numbers, while Clinton is nowhere close to Obama's.
My takeaway is that Trump has already hit Romney's numbers, while Clinton is nowhere close to Obama's.
whyamihere
Banned
Obama was a better fit for the Iowa electorate?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Those are pretty bad Iowa numbers.
Aaron Strife
Banned
whyamihere
Banned
The good news is they have a lot of time to makeup that ground and she doesn't need to win Iowa. The bad news is everything else about those numbers.
Yeah but early voting is like all diehard partisans anyway. That is a big decline.
edit: No Party is also down a lot.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Iowa
That Hillary ground game at work.
Nobody is talking about the ground game in the media. I may continue to bang my head against the wall a few times between now and November but election night will be fun, and quick.
eBay Huckster
Member
obviously, what happened is Iowa Democrats died pretty hard
Aaron Strife
Banned
One big thing in 2014 was that Republicans basically ran even with Democrats in early voting in Iowa. This is obviously a recession from 2012 but as long as they're keeping themselves significantly ahead it doesn't seem that bad at first glance.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, I have no idea. Obviously her organization is crushing it in NC, so I wonder if this is just a collapse of the Iowa Dem.
Or that. Would explain why there's no spike in the R numbers.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I like that CNN got rid of Crossfire (twice) only to turn their entire network into 24/7 Crossfire.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Is there a thread for Charlotte protests?
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