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[Joeytj]

Iowa

That Hillary ground game at work.

Am I reading that wrong, or is the overall number of requested absentee ballots lower in 2016 than in 2012 at the same time period, for both parties?

Dems still lead this time around by a big margin, but that's a big difference in voter participation.

EDIT: That's right, the DNC happened much later in August four years ago.

 

[johnsmith]

I like that CNN got rid of Crossfire (twice) only to turn their entire network into 24/7 Crossfire.

apropos of nothing, but you always pick the weirdest looking, most random dudes for your avatars

 

[Cyanity]

Is there a thread for Charlotte protests?

Are they getting out of hand? What's up?


edit - Checked the news. Can't wait for Fox to spin this one...

 

[whyamihere]

Nobody is talking about the ground game in the media. I may continue to bang my head against the wall a few times between now and November but election night will be fun, and quick.

I've literally been talking about the amazing Dem absentee ballot numbers every day. Make me the media!

 

[NeoXChaos]

what would the DNC have anything to skew the numbers?

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Are they getting out of hand? What's up?

Someone reportedly shot

Don't know if pd or protester

On cnn

 

[whyamihere]

what would the DNC have anything to skew the numbers?

Enthusiasm bump.

 

[Iolo]

It seems like some people are saying those Dem numbers look great, and some terrible. They look terrible to me, what's going on.

 

[Boke1879]

I think as long as Clinton focuses on the fundamentals like she is. We're good to go. A good debate will help, but her ground game is on point. And from next week until early voting ends have her stumpers out there encouraging it.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Now a riot

People broke into a mall

 

[NeoXChaos]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 28m28 minutes ago
Also no evidence of a pro-Trump surge in VA. In July/Aug, 52% of net new reg came from FFX, ARL, ALX, LDN, PWC, RIC, HCO (all heavy Dem).

Trump is finished in VA. Ground Game will kill him. He won't be able to take advantage of his numbers in IA, OH etc if he got nobody getting them to polls, registering etc.

 

[Spiritreaver]

NC is crazy right now.

It seems like some people are saying those Dem numbers look great, and some terrible. They look terrible to me, what's going on.

They can be whatever you want them to be, beautiful.

 

[Joeytj]

It seems like some people are saying those Dem numbers look great, and some terrible. They look terrible to me, what's going on.

Pro: There are still more Dems voting than Rep.

Cons: They are down big compared to 2012.

Unknown: How much of those big numbers from 2012 was due to enthusiasm at the beginning but then leveled off later. We don't know if this represents an overall trend for the rest of the campaign or just bad numbers.

Summary: Iowa isn't lost, but it isn't going to be easy. Just like we've known for a while. Those Republican numbers are the same or worse since 2012, meaning Trump isn't surprising Romney. But the Democratic electorate (Obama coalition) is definitely depressed right now and needs to be given a shot of hopium STAT.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

Please tell me you just saw that live report on CNN

 

[Plinko]

Yes, "propensity to panic". There's a pretty distinct line between Cybit-posting (which has great value given his status, and is the yin to my and Aaron's yang) and what you've been doing, which has been posts amounting to "oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck the world is ending, oh fuck she can't possibly win X" based on single data points for the past month at a frequency that would make 2012 Diablos blush.

And, sorry, the "Clinton needs to do XYZ" debates are one step up from OT's merry band of complete political neophytes doing them (and are about ten steps down from actually talking to members of the campaign in terms of likelihood that they're points that haven't been rehashed to hell and back by some combination of royalan, adam and Crab over the past month).

I want to see the receipts, from "the last month," as you say is when this supposedly happened. "I'm worried/concerned" is nowhere near what you just posted in any universe let alone this board.

By the way, if my posts annoy you so much, feel free to put me on ignore or just not respond. I'm just trying to have a decent conversation about politics with a variety of viewpoints. If my responses have that effect on you, it might be better for you to just skip them.

 

[Spiritreaver]

Please tell me you just saw that live report on CNN

I just got it. That was.... intense. I didn't realize it was live until he starting coughing and screaming.

WHY IS CNN SENDING A REPORTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS

 

[Boke1879]

What was the live report?

 

[Cyanity]

I just got it. That was.... intense. I didn't realize it was live until he starting coughing and screaming.

WHY IS CNN SENDING A REPORTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS

Holy shit, did a reporter get teargassed?

edit - I'm currently watching the ABC Youtube livestream.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

And the CNN reporter just got knocked down

 

[Spiritreaver]

What was the live report?

CNN has people in the middle of this riot in NC. Getting gassed live. One reporter just got hit during a segment. Now another's being threatened.

 

[Clydefrog]

Wow the reporter just got tackled by a protester. Fucked up

 

[whyamihere]

Pro: There are still more Dems voting than Rep.

Cons: They are down big compared to 2012.

Unknown: How much of those big numbers from 2012 was due to enthusiasm at the beginning but then leveled off later. We don't know if this represents an overall trend for the rest of the campaign or just bad numbers.

Summary: Iowa isn't lost, but it isn't going to be easy. Just like we've known for a while. Those Republican numbers are the same or worse since 2012, meaning Trump isn't surprising Romney. But the Democratic electorate (Obama coalition) is definitely depressed right now and needs to be given a shot of hopium STAT.

1.5 million people voted in Iowa in '12. My gusss is the number will probably be a tad less this year. It's up to the Clinton campaign to identify members of the Obama coalition and then get them to vote early. Thankfully, you can even petition the state to do temp voting booths if 100 people request it, so there are lots of opportunities to get undecideds to commit.

If it shriks to a 3-4 point race in Iowa, she might have a shot with overcoming Trump due to ground game. But these numbers need to be better.

 

[Nafai1123]

Yeah this CNN reporting at the protest is crazy.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

adam pls


best advice here was to throw it in the pile and wait.

This advice is a pet peeve of mine. If I released 20 polls from the Antrax Polling Company that all had Trump +10 or Clinton +20, you shouldn't just throw these into the aggregate! I'm going to break the aggregate by sheer volume of trash. This is still in the same category as what I was talking about earlier. Science isn't based on faith! Don't trust pollsters! Just read the damn studies and results, then see if they make sense.

If I came out with a poll that had 50% of the electorate as non-white, that would clearly be garbage! Why put that into an aggregate?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Trump is finished in VA. Ground Game will kill him. He won't be able to take advantage of his numbers in IA, OH etc if he got nobody getting them to polls, registering etc.

Final Fantasy X will destroy Trump

 

[Effect]

I'm dreading what the aftermath of this will be in the morning. Can't stay up watching this and really so tried right now I doubt I could if I wanted to.

 

[User 463088]

One thing about that NV Fox News poll I wanted to mention.

Latino Decisions had Nevada at 70/14 among Latino voters.
Fox News had it at 43/32.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm dreading what the aftermath of this will be in the morning. Can't stay up watching this and really so tried right now I doubt I could if I wanted to.

Well, from what CNN has shown there's been some looting so expect that to be the story in certain places.

 

[Cyanity]

And the police are moving


Protesters with hands up, tensions are HIGH, and the reporters seem scared.

edit - More tear gas being shot out, rubber bullets fired, some protesters huddled up and praying

ABC just confirmed that the person who got shot has died.

 

[RustyNails]

Total disconnect between National and State polling right now. I have no clue whats going on, so I will wait for more state polling.

 

[B-Dubs]

And the police are moving


Protesters with hands up, tensions are HIGH, and the reporters seem scared.

edit - More tear gas being shot out, rubber bullets fired

Well, according to CNN one of their reporters just got assaulted. Can't blame them.

 

[Plinko]

One thing about that NV Fox News poll I wanted to mention.

Latino Decisions had Nevada at 70/14 among Latino voters.
Fox News had it at 43/32.

I find the disparity between demographics in the polls this time around absolutely amazing. The increased cultural diversity in the country has definitely made pollsters' jobs tougher.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

apropos of nothing, but you always pick the weirdest looking, most random dudes for your avatars

It's Rick Scott! He was begging to be avatared.

Begging.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Cruz and Trump and the rest of the GOP have started raging at IP addresses now being given out an American organization that doesn't have a contract with America (whereas they did have a contract prior).

This is the dumbest, most convoluted campaign issue they've tried to create.

http://www.circleid.com/posts/20160916_internet_stewardship_transition_critical_to_internets_future/

It's absolutely nothing and yet Cruz is mad as hell.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

Iowa

That Hillary ground game at work.

Isn't Iowa supposedly the state where Trump has the best ground game? An operation directed by Terry Branstad's son, and the enthusiastic participation of GOP officials up and down the line statewide? Many offices and staff? With a decent budget and advertising? Because that is certainly encouraging.

 

[mo60]

Isn't Iowa supposedly the state where Trump has the best ground game? An operation directed by Terry Branstad's son, and the enthusiastic participation of GOP officials up and down the line statewide? Many offices and staff? With a decent budget and advertising? Because that is certainly encouraging.

Yeah. Iowa is his best state in terms of ground game. Even with that he's around romney numbers in Iowa.

 

[Plinko]

Iowa

That Hillary ground game at work.

Am I misreading this, or are those numbers way worse for democrats than the same point in 2012? Almost 93000 in 2012 but only 43000 this year?

 

[Sibylus]

Confession: I can't visually distinguish Scoot from other bald, white, crazy-eyed manic dudes like Ricketts. They all look the same to me.

 

[whyamihere]

Isn't Iowa supposedly the state where Trump has the best ground game? An operation directed by Terry Branstad's son, and the enthusiastic participation of GOP officials up and down the line statewide? Many offices and staff? With a decent budget and advertising? Because that is certainly encouraging.

This was also my takeaway. If Trump's best ground game (tm) gets him 2,000 more votes comparably than Romney at the same time in his best swing state, hm.

 

[Valhelm]

Cruz and Trump and the rest of the GOP have started raging at IP addresses now being given out an American organization that doesn't have a contract with America (whereas they did have a contract prior).

This is the dumbest, most convoluted campaign issue they've tried to create.

http://www.circleid.com/posts/20160916_internet_stewardship_transition_critical_to_internets_future/

It's absolutely nothing and yet Cruz is mad as hell.

Reminds me of that old Pete Seeger line.

Down with foreign-born atoms!

 

[Spiritreaver]

I don't like how the media is reporting these protests/riots.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

This CNN coverage has been crazy

 

[Aaron Strife]

This was also my takeaway. If Trump's best ground game (tm) gets him 2,000 more votes comparably than Romney at the same time in his best swing state, hm.

The problem for Trump is that even matching Romney isn't going to be enough, the dude *lost*.

Romney's campaign was run with average competence. Trump's campaign is running with zero. His turnout operation being merely adequate in Iowa just sticks out more because he has none elsewhere.

 

[Cyanity]

Cruz and Trump and the rest of the GOP have started raging at IP addresses now being given out an American organization that doesn't have a contract with America (whereas they did have a contract prior).

This is the dumbest, most convoluted campaign issue they've tried to create.

http://www.circleid.com/posts/20160916_internet_stewardship_transition_critical_to_internets_future/

It's absolutely nothing and yet Cruz is mad as hell.

Literally no one is going to read this (figuratively). Which is fine by me lol

 

[titiklabingapat]

I'm not really worried about the discrepancy between the Fox News and NBC polls. State polling tend to lag after the national polls. We saw this last week, and we are seeing it again this week.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Assuming Martin voted in cursive - did Martin seriously spell his own name wrong?

Maybe Bart should have won.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

I'm not really worried about the discrepancy between the Fox News and NBC polls. State polling tend to lag after the national polls. We saw this last week, and we are seeing it again this week.

I'd ignore most if not all poll till after a couple debates

 

[mo60]

The problem for Trump is that even matching Romney isn't going to be enough, the dude *lost*.

Romney's campaign was run with average competence. Trump's campaign is running with zero. His turnout operation being merely adequate in Iowa just sticks out more because he has none elsewhere.

I have a feeling if a trend like this pops up when ballot box voting happens on November 8th in Iowa hilary will win Iowa by a few percentage points unless a lot of the NPA's are moving towards republicans.

 

[Wilsongt]

welp, Reddit sure has managed to find a way to make Hillary's e-mails a thing again.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Kaepernick beat out rapists Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston to be voted the most disliked player in the NFL according to a new poll.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-nfl-according-poll-e-poll-marketing-research

This does not signal good things about things.