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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Serious question: Every election we always hear talk of an "October surprise," but when is the last time that actually happened?

cartoon_soldier said:
Fucking hell at those fox news polls.
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Eh, they aren't that bad. Hillary doesn't need any of those states to win. As somebody stated earlier, the Wisconsin poll being close is of greater concern, and even then I don't think it is that bad.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Valhelm said:
Why exactly are strongmen politicians always more popular with the poorly educated? Is it because working class culture tends to be more macho?

I've studied a fair amount of Russian history, and throughout the Stalinist period he was pretty beloved by the rural poor. Farmers not affected by the famine saw his collectivism as a necessary means to turn Russia into a modern socialist nation, and Russian attitudes toward the mass killings of bureaucrats and politicians don't seem to have been very critical.

According to people I know who have lived in Russia, Stalin is viewed overwhelmingly positively uneducated Russians. It's not a matter of ignorance. Stalin's purges are very, very well-known in modern Russia.

You see the same kind of attitude toward Putin and the insurgent far-right candidates in Europe.
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Liberalism isn't something people are born appreciating, they have to learn why political violence is bad. Violence is intuitive and appealing.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Spiritreaver said:
True, true. I try not to get too bothered, but it's depressing when you come to that realization that there's a candidate this far along that actively wants to ruin the lives of several groups of people. He's got tons of support behind him.

...Then I find myself arguing with Busters who just don't "get" it.
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Don't argue with the "busters" group. It's a waste of your time. If they don't get it now it's because they don't want to. If they are still willing to allow that man to touch the office of the Presidency then they just don't care.
 
D

Diablos

Member
No idea what to make of the polls. Disappointed to see NC slipping away in a respected poll though. The firewall is getting too weak fam. We can't have it weakening any further.

CNN on the street during the protest is pretty dumb on their part. Have fun risking your life so you can watch an angry kid break glass with his foot.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
Valhelm said:
Why exactly are strongmen politicians always more popular with the poorly educated? Is it because working class culture tends to be more macho?

I've studied a fair amount of Russian history, and throughout the Stalinist period he was pretty beloved by the rural poor. Farmers not affected by the famine saw his collectivism as a necessary means to turn Russia into a modern socialist nation, and Russian attitudes toward the mass killings of bureaucrats and politicians don't seem to have been very critical.

According to people I know who have lived in Russia, Stalin is viewed overwhelmingly positively uneducated Russians. It's not a matter of ignorance. Stalin's purges are very, very well-known in modern Russia.

You see the same kind of attitude toward Putin and the insurgent far-right candidates in Europe.
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Simple solutions to complex problems. Like Trump's wall. Uneducated people don't want to hear about a nuanced plan that requires many steps to help the immigration issue. In their mind the problem is people crossing into the US over a land border. The complex solution is immigration reform, Trump's simple solution is build a wall. Because if people are getting in the country a wall would stop them


Same with the purges. The complex solution to dissenting voices to to work with them and compromise your worldviews to achieve better understanding..or kill them and not have to compromise. It's an easy out.
 
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IggyChooChoo

Member
B-Dubs said:
At the very least, if he doesn't go quietly, he may well hand Clinton reelection by whipping the tea party and crazies into a frenzy and making it impossible for the GOP to elect someone that isn't another Trump.
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I think this is quite possible, especially if there's a recession, they block stimulus, pick up congressional seats, and credit their victories to renewed tea party-style obstructionism and purism. I don't see Nikki Haley riding that wave. Now Ted Cruz might be able to.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
No idea what to make of the polls. Disappointed to see NC slipping away in a respected poll though. The firewall is getting too weak fam. We can't have it weakening any further.

CNN on the street during the protest is pretty dumb on their part. Have fun risking your life so you can watch an angry kid break glass with his foot.
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You know NC isn't the firewall right? NH, PA, VA and CO are and they all look great. We got an NH poll today with Clinton up 9. The WI poll wasn't super great but I'd imagine if Clinton's campaign was seeing similar numbers they'd be throwing money at ads in the state. Until they do that I'm assuming it's safe.
 
S

Spiritreaver

Member
Ehhh, we really need another CO poll.

Boke1879 said:
Don't argue with the "busters" group. It's a waste of your time. If they don't get it now it's because they don't want to. If they are still willing to allow that man to touch the office of the Presidency then they just don't care.
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Lol, yeah I need to stop. Nothing to gain from them.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
I just watched on Michelle Obama on Colbert last night, and I'm sitting there thinking, if it was possible to keep her and Barack in there indefinitely, I would be so down. It's depressing thinking about this damn election.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Aaron Strife said:
You know NC isn't the firewall right? NH, PA, VA and CO are and they all look great. We got an NH poll today with Clinton up 9. The WI poll wasn't super great but I'd imagine if Clinton's campaign was seeing similar numbers they'd be throwing money at ads in the state. Until they do that I'm assuming it's safe.
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We need more Maine polling.
 
D

Diablos

Member
eBay Huckster said:
we're talking about the same firewall that involves Kerry 04 + NM + CO + VA, right

(because MI/PA/NH are out of reach, WI is stable if slightly weaker, and everything else is safe)
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NC slipping away sucks because it's nice as an insurance policy if OH and/or FL shit the bed.

Also how was Obama polling in 2012 in WI at this time? He won by 10 points right? Why is it so bad now
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Heckman (2016) argues that if your welfare system is super generous (as in Denmark) people won't go to college even if it's free (because there's just not much of a point for job purposes).

So if going to college causes (instead of just being correlated with) lower vote totals for white nationalist candidates, there's a troll argument to be made that the welfare state causes more people to become interested in white nationalist candidates.

Of course, this finding would then imply that America should make college tuition free so it wouldn't be a pure troll and a more generous welfare state is still worth people forgoing college education.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
IggyChooChoo said:
I think this is quite possible, especially if there's a recession, they block stimulus, pick up congressional seats, and credit their victories to renewed tea party-style obstructionism and purism. I don't see Nikki Haley riding that wave. Now Ted Cruz might be able to.
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From the sound of it Reince is looking to kneecap anyone who isn't lining up behind Trump, so Kasich and Cruz might well be out of the running.
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
You don't need to worry about individual states. If Hillary wins by 7 points, she's going to win most of the electoral votes. She's only up by 2 points right now which can lead to her losing some states.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Plinko said:
Did that have a major effect on the election? I don't recall.
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CHRISTIE-jumbo-v2.jpg


At the time, Obama's amazing response to the storm and his near-endorsement by Christie brought his poll numbers up a little bit. The race had grown so close by the last few weeks of the race that Obama's response to Sandy is arguably what put him over the edge.

This also brought back a lot of poor memories of W, and by extension the entire Republican party.
 
R

Revolver

Member
DontBeThatGuy said:
I just watched on Michelle Obama on Colbert last night, and I'm sitting there thinking, if it was possible to keep her and Barack in there indefinitely, I would be so down. It's depressing thinking about this damn election.
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The amount of charisma Michelle and Barack possess is just unreal. I know she hates politics but I wish she'd run someday.

I was watching 16 for '16 on PBS last night and it featured Howard Dean and Pat Buchanan's presidential runs. Trump's campaign is so eerily similar to Buchanan's. It's depressing how little has changed. Though HW Bush's attack ad against Pat was pretty quaint. "Pat Buchanan drives a foreign car" with ominous music.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Boke1879 said:
I think Reince is gone after the election so that statement from means very little I think.
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Bowdz said:
Reince isn't going to be the chairman after the election.
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While this is true, if the Trump wing doesn't die down after this cycle expect the next chairman/woman to carry out that shivving on his behalf to keep the peace.

DontBeThatGuy said:
I just watched on Michelle Obama on Colbert last night, and I'm sitting there thinking, if it was possible to keep her and Barack in there indefinitely, I would be so down. It's depressing thinking about this damn election.
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If he could run again, and Michelle would let him, Obama would easily win another term. Especially this cycle.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Valhelm said:
CHRISTIE-jumbo-v2.jpg


At the time, Obama's amazing response to the storm and his near-endorsement by Christie brought his poll numbers up a little bit. The race had grown so close by the last few weeks of the race that Obama's response to Sandy is arguably what put him over the edge.

This also brought back a lot of poor memories of W, and by extension the entire Republican party.
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Ah, the Christie thing, that's right. Totally slipped my mind.

Spoiled Milk said:
Scott Adams' Spooky Predictions

He's been pretty right so far. Might want to prepare for a President Trump.
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The thing, though, is that some of those happened but they didn't really affect her numbers. I don't know if I could even argue that pneumonia was a "major health issue." If anything, she may have gotten some sympathy. Plus, I don't recall Wiki leaks having any effect on her numbers.

I laughed out loud at number 5 ever being possible.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
Revolver said:
The amount of charisma Michelle and Barack possess is just unreal. I know she hates politics but I wish she'd run someday.

I was watching 16 for '16 on PBS last night and it featured Howard Dean and Pat Buchanan's presidential runs. Trump's campaign is so eerily similar to Buchanan's. It's depressing how little has changed. Though HW Bush's attack ad against Pat was pretty quaint. "Pat Buchanan drives a foreign car" with ominous music.
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Yeah, I watched that too and thought the same thing. Trump is quite a bit more uh, colorful though.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Republicans’ kangaroo court

I enjoyed this part

House Speaker Paul Ryan, eager to avoid the spectacle of the House voting to impeach an innocent man based on false charges without a proper hearing, got impeachment advocates to settle for Wednesday’s hearing in which Koskinen testified before the House Judiciary Committee. But that hardly improved matters: To say this impeachment inquiry is a kangaroo court would be an insult to marsupials.

The hearing was called without the usual protocol of a vote of the House authorizing an investigation. The accused was not represented by counsel or given the right to present evidence. He was even denied access to the “evidence” the House Oversight Committee amassed that forms the basis of the charges against him.

Even the kangaroos on the Judiciary court were denied the secret evidence behind the bogus charges. “Does the committee majority have access to the unedited transcripts of the interviews conducted by the Oversight Committee?” Democrat Jerrold Nadler (N.Y.) asked the committee’s chairman, Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.).

“We do not think so,” Goodlatte replied.

If they lacked evidence, Republicans on the panel compensated with hysteria.

Jordan is entitled to his beliefs and his conspiracy theories, even if they run contrary to the evidence. But when it comes to the awesome power of impeachment, the burden of proof should be higher than wild speculation.
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Without actually having any sort of agenda besides no and repeal this and repeal that, all Republicans do is spend time on protest votes and frivolous investigations and hearings.

Sadly, it seems that a lot of conservatives disagree with that last paragraph.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Revolver said:
I was watching 16 for '16 on PBS last night and it featured Howard Dean and Pat Buchanan's presidential runs. Trump's campaign is so eerily similar to Buchanan's. It's depressing how little has changed. Though HW Bush's attack ad against Pat was pretty quaint. "Pat Buchanan drives a foreign car" with ominous music.
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Pat Buchanan's sister Bay spoke at my college. I remember asking her if the country would have to get worse in order for her brother to become more electable. (I don't remember what she said). But now I know the answer is no, just the GOP base has to get worse.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
NC slipping away sucks because it's nice as an insurance policy if OH and/or FL shit the bed.

Also how was Obama polling in 2012 in WI at this time? He won by 10 points right? Why is it so bad now
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He was up by 4 in polling and won by 7

Our insurance policy for FL, OH, and NC shitting the bed are the states I outlined. Clinton doesn't need any of them to win although obviously it would be nice to. We just got a poll from PPP showing a tie in NC and a solid lead in FL from Marist.

thisisfinedog.jpg nobutreally.jpg
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Plinko said:
The thing, though, is that some of those happened but they didn't really affect her numbers. I don't know if I could even argue that pneumonia was a "major health issue." If anything, she may have gotten some sympathy. Plus, I don't recall Wiki leaks having any effect on her numbers.

I laughed out loud at number 5 ever being possible.
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Liberal denial
BlastProcessing said:
Scott Adams is a great case study on what happens when a man's only tether to reality is his own ego.
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Actually his ego is a rocket thruster blasting him farther and farther into the great unknown.
 
R

royalan

Member
Who the fuck is this black dude on CNN right now arguing that the black community needs more men and less rap music?

What decade is this again?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Doug Owens has gone from sending me "the sky is falling" emails when he was competitive to "wow, we're doing great!" now.

I'm pretty sure he's getting crushed and the polls say so too :/

He needs Trump to start attacking the Central Park Five.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
Liberal denial

Actually his ego is a rocket thruster blasting him farther and farther into the great unknown.
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Speak of rocket boosters, we are 6 days away from Elon Musk's Mars colonization talk at the IAC where he will unveiling the Interplanetary Transport System and the aptly named Big Fucking Rocket (expected to be around 15 million lbs of thrust or double the Saturn V).

Monday and Tuesday will hopefully go off without a hitch and will a one-two punch of awesomeness.
 
T

ThLunarian

Member
I can't believe there isn't more discussion about the Charlotte protests in Off Topic. Things are tense here and people are nervous. I work uptown and I'm a little nervous to go to work in the morning. Shit is crazy out there.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Liberalism isn't something people are born appreciating, they have to learn why political violence is bad. Violence is intuitive and appealing.
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Also it's a learned response that's likely found in your environment. The "boss" at your job is likely a strongman (since the kind of work that rural poor people do doesn't require much nuance other than "do this task at the level I require"), and so your work reinforces that strongmen are leaders and can run things. Any time someone around my dad's work (construction) tried to start going for nuanced work discussions, everyone assumed it was because he was lazy and trying to pad his work hours with talk instead of heavy lifting.

Basically a strong man is the kind of person who can get 8 hours of work out of people who are on the clock for 8 hours. And according to the (largely racist) chunk of right-wing voters who fit this mold, minorities and liberals are employees who slack on the job while the right wingers do the full work plus overtime to make up for their freeloading.
 
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