PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Valhelm said:
Hurricane Sandy.
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Yep. That definitely fits the defintion of an october surprise. I don't think there will be an october surprise this year, but you never know. I don't think the october surprise will be a hurricane this time if it appears because a storm like sandy does not form every year and affect the US.
 
Samarecarm said:
https://twitter.com/OldNewsman/status/778737064871272448

New CO poll apparently coming out tomorrow with Hildawg on top
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I would hope so. If PA,CO, or VA start looking bad that's when I'll actually bedwet

There will be no October surprise because Trump has sunk the discourse so low that really nothing would be that big of a shock. Even if there was, the effect of "October surprises" become blunted when so many people end up voting early.
 
AntraxSuicide said:
Also it's a learned response that's likely found in your environment. The "boss" at your job is likely a strongman (since the kind of work that rural poor people do doesn't require much nuance other than "do this task at the level I require"), and so your work reinforces that strongmen are leaders and can run things. Any time someone around my dad's work (construction) tried to start going for nuanced work discussions, everyone assumed it was because he was lazy and trying to pad his work hours with talk instead of heavy lifting.

Basically a strong man is the kind of person who can get 8 hours of work out of people who are on the clock for 8 hours. And according to the (largely racist) chunk of right-wing voters who fit this mold, minorities and liberals are employees who slack on the job while the right wingers do the full work plus overtime to make up for their freeloading.
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And then there's the concept in some intellectual circles that people shouldn't even be required to work just to earn a living. Can you imagine explaining that idea to some of these people. I can see them fuming right now.
 
Samarecarm said:
http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/university-jumps-into-politics

Hildawg +9
Bennet (Senate) +13

registered voters

Minimum wage amendment is also passing; single-payer health care is not
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RV/LV split is probably less important here because the whole state is vote by mail, so turnout isn't really a thing as much as just reminding folks to vote.

Speaking of which my absentee ballot is at my folks' place, but I'm staying at my gf's tonight. Will be filling out first thing in the morning. Wheeeee!
 
cartoon_soldier said:
Fucking hell at those fox news polls.
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I'd been as chill as possible (considering Donald Trump was always going to get at least the 2nd most votes in this election) until this week. I just really really really hate this feeling now where Hillary still has her blue wall, but cannot slip behind in a SINGLE state more without losing the lead. Makes every new poll a hold your breath moment. As soon as Hillary can take back a polling advantage in Ohio OR Florida OR North Carolina OR Nevada OR Iowa my blood pressure will go down again, you know?

Trying really hard to push the other possibilities out of my head. Feeling better about it tonight than I was this morning.
 
Children | Hillary Clinton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3it-inFh0Q

"I'm Hillary Clinton, and I've always approved this message."

pKJpTpj.gif
 
Samarecarm said:
Emerson polls: (so, probably landline-only)

Wisc Prez:
Clinton 45
Trump 38

Wisc Senate:
Feingold 52
Johnson 42

Illinois Prez:
Clinton 45
Trump 39

Illinois Senate:
Duckworth 41
Kirk 39
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Nah.I do not think the presidential race is anywhere near 6 points in Illinois right now.It is most likely 10 points higher than that at the moment.
 
Yeah, it's a super common mistake. I think the only reason I can keep them straight is that I currently live in Illinois and used to live in Wisconsin (in Baldwin's district, no less).
 
nature boy said:
I would definitely put more weight in the NBC/WSJ poll compared to any other national poll, simply because the pollsters on both sides of the poll are as experienced as you get.
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NBC and WSJ don't actually conduct the poll themselves. They just jointly commission it. The actual polling company that does the surveys and makes the necessary sample assumptions is Marist, iirc. Clinton does well with Marist because they have an extremely permissive RV -> LV screen that normally lets about 92% of their sample through. They're a good picture of what Clinton could do if she gets enthusiasm levels up and has a stunning GoTV operation. How much weight you give to their poll depends entirely on how much credible you think their high turnout assumption is.
 
Some Obama Ads Clinton should take inspiration from:

Challenges - by Morgan Freeman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU&index=12&list=LL7woKclqDgT6xAT31E-zJPg

537 (about Florida in 2000). Every Vote Matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gj8Ut6E0cA&list=LL7woKclqDgT6xAT31E-zJPg&index=11

Woman's Health
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YhDQJU1NlE&list=LL7woKclqDgT6xAT31E-zJPg&index=27

We haven't really seen Clinton hit trump on Woman's health issues.

On Tax Returns
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMo5pykT4uw&list=LL7woKclqDgT6xAT31E-zJPg&index=31

The Choice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBorRZnqtMo&list=PL77AA4A38B64B59D6&index=2

Bill Clinton - Clear Choice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xsZ45Weng0&list=PL77AA4A38B64B59D6&index=11

Yes, use Bill in direct to TV ads.

Forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiVe_7kTTdQ&list=PL77AA4A38B64B59D6&index=22

Turn around Trump's we are doing the worst ever on it's head.
 
the best poll is showing trump up 2.4, which is about a 4.5 point swing towards hillary over the last three days.

main reason seems to be 18-65 year olds, black voters, and male voters moving towards hillary in that time.
 
Crab said:
NBC and WSJ don't actually conduct the poll themselves. They just jointly commission it. The actual polling company that does the surveys and makes the necessary sample assumptions is Marist, iirc. Clinton does well with Marist because they have an extremely permissive RV -> LV screen that normally lets about 92% of their sample through. They're a good picture of what Clinton could do if she gets enthusiasm levels up and has a stunning GoTV operation. How much weight you give to their poll depends entirely on how much credible you think their high turnout assumption is.
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Marist conduct the NBC/WSJ *state* polls, not the national one.

National is done by Hart Research (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). They're assuming a demographic similar to 2012 and a slightly lower turnout.
 
nature boy said:
Marist conduct the NBC/WSJ *state* polls, not the national one.

National is done by Hart Research (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). They're assuming a demographic similar to 2012 and a slightly lower turnout.
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Apologies, my recall failed me. I actually went and found their LV screen to make up for it:

Likely Voters defined as voted in either 2012 or 2014 or 18-24 year olds with
self-reported interest in the election of 5 to 10 on a 1-10 scale.
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The first is pretty standard. When I worked at YouGOV, we found that voting in the previous election of the same format gave you an 80% likelihood of voting in the next election - elections are habit-forming (incidentally, this is the greatest gift from Obama to the Democratic Party; high-enthusiasm wins have big aftershock effects on voting cohorts). People who didn't vote in the previous election of the same format only voted 15% of the time. What's more, people who didn't vote in previous elections but do end up voting in the election in question tend to like demographically similar to those who had voted in past elections anyway (probably community effects); so it's a pretty useful screen. It gets a little inaccurate for the 25-30 demographic and the 65+ demographic, overstating the former and understating the latter, but you can't do perfect. I've seen variations that add additional socioeconomic weighting and the like, or test for whether your participated in local elections (as an example, people who vote in council elections in the UK are over 95% likely to vote in national elections), but this is a good one.

The second I think is a bit ambitious. People who rated themselves as 5 out of 10 interested in the election still only had a 60% turnout rate. What's worse is that it isn't demographically consistent - if someone aged 20 said they were 5 out of 10 interested, they were less likely to vote than someone aged 40 who said they were 5 out of 10 interested. So if they're setting 5 out of 10 as the bar for millennial inclusion, they've actually included a fair number of people who might be as low as 30% or 40% likely to vote. So I think they're being quite optimistic about millennials still - they're assuming that Clinton will be able to excite them; or more likely they're just using Obama's figures as a benchmark and adjusting the bar to produce the same amount. The last one a lot of pollsters do because even though it normally fucks up, you can point it and say "yeah but it fucked up in a way we could never have predicted, if this had worked like the last election this never would have happened!" etc. It gives them plausible deniability.

Just thought this might be an interesting post about LV from someone who worked on it. I will say that if they're finding lower turnout even with a relatively permissive screen, that's a bit worrying for the Democrats. That said, they remark on that themselves:

Potential threats to Mrs. Clinton include signs that support and enthusiasm among African-American and Hispanic voters are waning. Those voters aren’t gravitating to Mr. Trump, suggesting they could stay home or vote for third-party candidates, whose impact on the race remains a wild card.

The poll also found that younger voters, a key Democratic constituency, are far less interested in the election than are other age groups and voting blocs. Asked to rate their interest in the election on a scale of 1 to 10, only half the voters under 35 ranked their interest as a 9 or 10. Overall, 68% of all registered voters ranked their interest that high.
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So: get Kaine to Florida, get Sanders to Ohio. Don't let them leave.
 
I've been told that you only need to get someone IN Ohio. The leaving part is taking care of itself.

Cruz's campaign manager is nudging him into endorsing Trump.
Patrick Svitek ‏@PatrickSvitek 20h20 hours ago
Jeff Roe on whether Cruz will support Trump: "I think he’ll have an answer before Election Day."
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Predictit shares up to 48
 
thebloo said:
I've been told that you only need to get someone IN Ohio. The leaving part is taking care of itself.

Cruz's campaign manager is nudging him into endorsing Trump.


Predictit shares up to 48
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Lmao if Cruz all of a sudden comes out for Trump after all that.

He'd make McCain look like a paragon of conscience and honour
 
Poll: 78 Percent of Latinos Have Negative View of Donald Trump

Nearly 80 percent of Latinos have a negative view of Donald Trump, and fewer than one in five say that they plan to support him in November's election, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll shows.

But while Hillary Clinton leads Trump by a huge margin among Latinos, her support has dipped slightly since earlier this summer.

The poll found that 71 percent of likely Latino voters said they would back the Democratic nominee in a head-to-head matchup, while just 18 percent supported Trump.
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latino_voters_head-to-head_matchup_among_registered_voters_among_likely_voters_chartbuilder_b43a5cb99814858d784e86886363af26.nbcnews-ux-600-480.png


?Dónde está Tim Kaine?

Crab said:
....
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Yes, LV screening is a tough part to do, because you can go the simplistic route (ask and believe the person) or as private polls do (and the NYT/Upshot just did) actually go through voter files and build your model based on that.
Millennials look the less interested, although African-American enthusiasm is also down from 2008 and 2012
 
I know caucuses are really hard to poll, but wasn't La Hillary also kinda underpredicted in polls of the NV caucus? I was pleasantly surprised by her +5 margin. Though I suspect her bigger problem is all the uneducateds!
 
Y2Kev said:
I know caucuses are really hard to poll, but wasn't La Hillary also kinda underpredicted in polls of the NV caucus? I was pleasantly surprised by her +5 margin. Though I suspect her bigger problem is all the uneducateds!
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I think the problem was not specifically Hispanic-polling, but Spanish-language polling. English-only Hispanics have different voting patterns. This shouldn't apply to this poll, it had options for both Spanish and English.
 
Waking up to the usual trickle of tweets about how violent protest solves nothing - the usual group of people who don't get that violent protests are symptomatic of a larger problem that desperately needs fixing 😞
 
excelsiorlef said:
I still just can't believe that third party candidates are hurting the candidate who isn't a fascist....

I mean I can, but fuck it's stupid.
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Makes sense to me this time around. Trump's base has always been dedicated. Republicans always tend to stick with their candidate more. As others have said, when the debates come and the election gets closer, third party voters will probably go back to one of the two main candidates.
 
Clinton +7 in Virginia: 44-37

Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump has cut more than half of Democrat Hillary Clinton's lead in a month, but still trails by seven percent among likely voters in Virginia (44%-37%), according to The Roanoke College Poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson remained steady with eight percent of likely voters, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein dropped to 1 percent, while 9 percent remain undecided. In a two-way matchup, Clinton's lead extends to 11 points (51%-40%). Clinton led by 16 in the August Roanoke College Poll (48%-32%).
The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 841 likely voters in Virginia between September 11 and September 20 and has a margin of error of +3.4 percent.
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http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_sept2016

Virginia and Colorado are safe blue.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hot topic of tomorrow: Will this University of Tennessee law professor get fired or no?
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The evolution of Glenn Reynolds is interesting. Maybe going from mild-mannered, Gore-supporting tech blogger to alt-right gun worshipper isn't that unusual for his cohort, but for a law professor it is a strange trajectory.
 
cartoon_soldier said:
Young people. Rebel and all.

Also fully expect the Charlotte protests to help Trump.
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I don't think you can measure that right now. These events don't seem to "help" Trump at all. Unfortunately these events are forgotten about after a couple of days.

Clinton when she talks about the stuff understands sympathy and nuance. Trump talks about eroding rights. If that doesn't get black people out to vote I don't know what will.
 
Boke1879 said:
I don't think you can measure that right now. These events don't seem to "help" Trump at all. Unfortunately these events are forgotten about after a couple of days.

Clinton when she talks about the stuff understands sympathy and nuance. Trump talks about eroding rights. If that doesn't get black people out to vote I don't know what will.
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In NC, Hillary is already getting a big part of the black vote. So specifically for NC, I see this as helping Trump.
 
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