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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Slayven

Member
I don't think you can measure that right now. These events don't seem to "help" Trump at all. Unfortunately these events are forgotten about after a couple of days.

Clinton when she talks about the stuff understands sympathy and nuance. Trump talks about eroding rights. If that doesn't get black people out to vote I don't know what will.

It is weird how shit is just evaporating from the news after a few days. Even here on gaf you would imagine some shit having a thousand post thread, but barely getting half of that. I wonder if people is now adjusted to this shit? Don't want to say numb.
 
I don't think you can measure that right now. These events don't seem to "help" Trump at all. Unfortunately these events are forgotten about after a couple of days.

Clinton when she talks about the stuff understands sympathy and nuance. Trump talks about eroding rights. If that doesn't get black people out to vote I don't know what will.

Yeah I'm holding off on criticizing the youngsters until they actually vote against Clinton. I'd be surprised if they're paying much attention to the actual race just yet.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Soooo basically despite the brutal couple of weeks the firewall is holding. Recent polls of those 6 states (PA, NH, MI, WI, CO, VA) are...

PA +8
NH +9
MI +3, +6
WI +3, +7
VA +7
CO +9 (RV, so probably like +7)

Also got a solid NC poll this morning. Good way to start the day ^_^
 
Soooo basically despite the brutal couple of weeks the firewall is holding. Recent polls of those 6 states (PA, NH, MI, WI, CO, VA) are...

PA +8
NH +9
MI +3, +6
WI +3, +7
VA +7
CO +9 (RV, so probably like +7)

Also got a solid NC poll this morning. Good way to start the day ^_^

Firewall holds.

But I don't want this to be a close election. If the election is close it will just encourage people to lie and BS their way next time too.
 
Firewall holds.

But I don't want this to be a close election. If the election is close it will just encourage people to lie and BS their way next time too.

It was likely always going to be a relatively close election.

The GOP will always get at least 40%

Trump has exposed the reality of the GOP party, it's mostly racist and those who aren't racist don't care about racism.
 
It was likely always going to be a relatively close election.

The GOP will always get at least 40%

Trump has exposed the reality of the GOP party, it's mostly racist and those who aren't racist don't care about racism.

If Trump is going to get to 260 EV then his national vote will be around 45%.

If it's close from the EV perspective then it just encourages a Trump like candidate next time who actually pivots after primary is over.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think the problem was not specifically Hispanic-polling, but Spanish-language polling. English-only Hispanics have different voting patterns. This shouldn't apply to this poll, it had options for both Spanish and English.
My understanding was more that Spanish only Hispanics don't like to get polled for whatever reason. They don't respond or something.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Also I just like saying la Hillary so

LA HILLARY

I think we are in good shape for the presidential (crab pls bless) but it might not get called early unless she blows him out in NC and it's going to be close there.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
I really do think Dems are going to sweep NC. The Clinton campaign has a massive ground game there and everyone will receive a boost from the state's GOP being a blight on humanity. It seems that at least have of the state agrees.
 
Yeah I'm holding off on criticizing the youngsters until they actually vote against Clinton. I'd be surprised if they're paying much attention to the actual race just yet.

I manage a bunch of college freshmen and sophomores at my work, and anecdotally I believe they are paying attention to this election more than usual, although they may not be paying attention to the right things. My group fall into two categories: kids who identify as conservative despite not actually having any conservative views when asked about specific issues (other than maybe gun rights for some of them, and a vague sense of 'obamacare is bad'), and vaguely hipster-ish liberals who really liked Bernie despite not really understanding any of his policy, who range from "Hillary is totally fine" to "I probably won't vote now." (I have a strong suspicion that none of them voted in the primaries).

This is in rich white suburbia of NY, by the way. So in my limited experience they are paying attention, but they seem to get most of their talking points and in fact most of their viewpoints from Facebook posts. So whether that actually counts is up for debate I guess. And then of course I would be surprised if any of them actually voted.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I get the importance of the senate but it's really important just to have someone who isn't a mega douche representing our country abroad. I set small goals. :(
 
I get the importance of the senate but it's really important just to have someone who isn't a mega douche representing our country abroad. I set small goals. :(

They're just as important for me since the Supreme Court justices she nominates will be a huge part of her legacy and influence the country for decades. Clinton with a Republican Congress completely probably loses in 2020

Edit I guess the presidency is more important with how much they control foreign affairs but it willooks feel a little bit how to also not have the Senate this year especially when 2018 looks awful
 
I get the importance of the senate but it's really important just to have someone who isn't a mega douche representing our country abroad. I set small goals. :(
I agree completely. In 2006 I was studying abroad in Spain and when some spaniards in a square found out I was American, they asked me if I was a Bush supporter. When I said absolutely not and that we were working on changing the tide for the next election, they proceeded to pick me up, hoist me on their shoulders and carry me around the square, yelling to everyone that I was anti bush. We affect the world so much. Our President is kind of theirs in small and big ways.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I get the importance of the senate but it's really important just to have someone who isn't a mega douche representing our country abroad. I set small goals. :(

I think the Supreme Court justices are far more important than the Senate at this point in time. That's why Clinton is so important here. Yes, it would be great to not have somebody like Trump as our mouthpiece to the world, but I think having somebody pick good justices is the greater concern.

Would Breyer and Ginsburg resign from the court if there's a Democratic president? Doubtful.

I'd think Ginsburg would be out almost assuredly if Hillary won. Why would they resign under a republican that could pick new ones?
 

Slayven

Member
This shit is almost adorable

A Trump campaign chair in Ohio says there was 'no racism' before Obama

Donald Trump’s campaign chair in a prominent Ohio county has claimed there was “no racism” during the 1960s and said black people who have not succeeded over the past half-century only have themselves to blame.

Kathy Miller, chair of the Republican nominee’s campaign in Mahoning County, who is white, made the remarks during a taped interview with the Guardian’s Anywhere but Washington series of election videos.
 
I'd think Ginsburg would be out almost assuredly if Hillary won. Why would they resign under a republican that could pick new ones?

I don't think they would resign, just stay in the court until they die.

But they might want to be replaced by a like-minded judge, under a Democratic president. But even that seems unlikely.

Ginsburg certainly will.

I doubted it before but I have no doubt the Republican would stonewall a Clinton pick for years.
She was asked to resign, and wasn't interested in even considering it.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Hillary's tax plan would add $200 billion in debt in the next decade.

Trump's? $5.3 trillion.

"Party of fiscal responsibility."
nature boy said:
I don't think they would resign, just stay in the court until they die.

But they might want to be replaced by a like-minded judge, under a Democratic president. But even that seems unlikely.

Perhaps. Maybe I'm too optimistic in thinking they would get out under a democrat so they could be replaced by people of a similar mindset.
 

Boke1879

Member
Right now my main focus is the presidency and Supreme Court.

Don't know if we'll take the senate but I believe we'll pick up a few seats. The debates and her ground game could be the game changer in that though.
 
Obamacare Has Increased Insurance Coverage Everywhere

casselman-barry-jester-uninsurance-1.png

But on one metric, at least, the law seems to be working: More people are getting coverage. According to other Census Bureau data released last week, 4 million people gained insurance last year. About 29 million Americans still don’t have insurance, 13 million fewer than before the law took effect.

The biggest improvements in the uninsured rate came in California, a state that fervently embraced the controversial law. About a third of the state’s residents are now enrolled in California’s Medicaid program, and 1.38 million people are enrolled in private insurance through the state’s health insurance marketplace after a multimillion-dollar campaign to promote it. (Check out the table at the end of this article to see how uninsured rates changed in every district.)

At the other end of the spectrum, the smallest declines in the rate of uninsured were mostly in Massachusetts, which passed a law in 2006 requiring residents to have insurance. (The Massachusetts law was a model for the ACA.) The state already had high rates of coverage as a result. For example, in District 8, which had the highest rate of coverage of any congressional district in 2015, coverage only increased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous year

Thanks, Obama.
 
I think it depends. What does 2020 look like?

Look at 2018 and how the Senate races are going to be brutal to Democrats and how it will be next to impossible to pass any judges through the Senate if Republicans regain control.

(And I'm assuming there's a small Dem Senate cushion from 2016).
 

Holmes

Member
Good polls. Good debate performances, along with a strong campaign finish and great ground games can push VA, CO, NH and maybe even PA to double digit victories.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Soooo basically despite the brutal couple of weeks the firewall is holding. Recent polls of those 6 states (PA, NH, MI, WI, CO, VA) are...

PA +8
NH +9
MI +3, +6
WI +3, +7
VA +7
CO +9 (RV, so probably like +7)

Also got a solid NC poll this morning. Good way to start the day ^_^

How about that? I know that "the wall" idea may be a bit oversimplistic, but it's great shorthand for what we're witnessing before our very eyes. Iowa, Florida, Ohio, etc look unsure - but the blue wall holds. It'll suck if we have to wait for Colorado to come in (a North Carolina call in the early-middle part of the evening would be lovely), but if it really comes down to it, she's got 272 no matter what.


Perhaps. Maybe I'm too optimistic in thinking they would get out under a democrat so they could be replaced by people of a similar mindset.
My not-so-secret hope is that Scalia's semi-surprise death might have put things into perspective for the older liberals on the court. Ginsburg, I'm very confident she'll retire in Clinton's first term. Breyer is my big question mark; he's 78.. it's time.

I think it depends. What does 2020 look like?

Here's the 2020 Senate map. Not friendly territory.
2020_Senate_election_map.png


The time to get out is in 2017. If we get shellacked to the extent I think we might in 2018, we might not make-up the margin to recapture control in 2020.
 
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