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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Futureman

Member
Thanks everyone regarding the debate/teleprompter.

just to be sure, it's the same for the primary debates? No prompter and they don't know the questions ahead of time?
 
This feels like a reversion to where we were back when the focus was on Trump and not Clinton. This seems to sort of be about where the electorate is, until the Trump campaign manages to shift the focus to some Clinton controversy and the media decides to pretend that having a charitable organization that might have some nebulous unprovable influence on the SoS is as bad as calling Mexican's Rapists or using money from your family foundation to pay legal bills.
Maybe the debate will provide an opportunity for Clinton to make the lead permanent.
 
To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.

It's not that far fetched of an idea. Campaigns are always playing the expectations game. It doesn't mean that Trump is secretly preparing for a good debate performance or anything like that.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.

This is the man who attacked a gold star family and called Mexican's rapists. They are absolutely not crafty.

Trump's ego will have himself declare himself the winner of the debate during the debate.
 

Boke1879

Member
I don't think Trump will outright call her a "bitch". That seems too much even for him.

I don't doubt he'll do what he did with Megyn Kelly and say something sexist in a round about way.
 
To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.

perhaps?

So we have Marist +6, NBC/WSJ +6, and AP/GfK +6.

I'm sensing a pattern.

Rigged right?

Fun ringer article

https://theringer.com/presidential-debates-are-not-on-the-level-b85266ea53fa#.fjb52xjoo

Also, note about predictive modeling in 2012 vs 2016

So nates model has always been prone to bedwetting.

Shouldn't the polls plus model account for these "game changers" that amount to nothing?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
IDK, this seems as close as possible to saying "yes, we are definitely a white supremacist party."

I'm not saying they aren't. I'm saying that: if they are, then the Republican Party now is as well given that Trump has worse comments on record and probably a more explicitly racist policy platform; and therefore that America is in a much poorer situation than Denmark.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Let's not forget his non-stop traveling which would leave little time for debate prep and the national security forum a couple of weeks ago where he made a complete ass of himself. The media blasted him for it as well. I suspect that was a trailer for Monday.
I didn't like the CiC forum at first, but after realizing this, I was really damn happy that it happened. Not only because we got a preview, but also because Clinton's team also got a preview.

The pattern is

Adjusted leader Trump + 3
Adjusted leader: ALL SHALL BOW DOWN BEFORE HIM
 

User1608

Banned
I don't think Trump will outright call her a "bitch". That seems too much even for him.

I don't doubt he'll do what he did with Megyn Kelly and say something sexist in a round about way.
I wonder if us wondering whether or not he'll call Hillary a gendered insult comes from when he blatantly denigrated Rosie O'Donnell and just his past history really, like in that video I posted. I know it did for me. As much as I disliked Carly Fiorina his comments about her face were totally gross. I remember reading them and gasping a bit.

I still believe he'll say something sexist too.
 
His dig at Rosie O'Donnell just goes to show how fucking stupid Republican voters are

Debate mod: You've referred to women as fat pigs in the past, do you have anything to say about that?
Trump: Only Rosie O'Donnell!
Audience: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA YES THAT IS HILARIOUS I TOO HATE THAT FAT LESBIAN BITCH
(Next day Trump shoots up 20 points in the polls)
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Thanks everyone regarding the debate/teleprompter.

just to be sure, it's the same for the primary debates? No prompter and they don't know the questions ahead of time?
Correct. That's some absurd conspiratorial nonsense to believe otherwise.

To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.
Seems like both. It's probably far closer to the truth than the Trump campaign would like, but also an attempt to just play the expectations game.
 
My mom thinks he'll drop a hard c on stage and just skip the bitch. Go right for the "big one"

I don't think that's in his vocabulary, though, haven't seen him tweet it or anything like that.
 

thebloo

Member
His dig at Rosie O'Donnell just goes to show how fucking stupid Republican voters are

Debate mod: You've referred to women as fat pigs in the past, do you have anything to say about that?
Trump: Only Rosie O'Donnell!
Audience: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA YES THAT IS HILARIOUS I TOO HATE THAT FAT LESBIAN BITCH
(Next day Trump shoots up 20 points in the polls)

Read Scott Adams' blog post about it. Or don't if you just showered. But it's an interesting perspective.
 

Iolo

Member
To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.

That's what I said. He's doing a good job at lowering expectations. It is his main hope, to exceed a low bar.
 
To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.

They're not crafty at all! What on earth? Conway is polished and usually has some kind of smooth answer on TV. That's literally it. What the fuck was "crafty" about their birtherism handling last week?
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
They're not crafty at all! What on earth? Conway is polished and usually has some kind of smooth answer on TV. That's literally it. What the fuck was "crafty" about their birtherism handling last week?

Well, instead of talking about Hillary's health or lack of transparency and tying all of that into the Clinton Foundation and her e-mail server we are now talking about Donald Trump being a flaming pile of racist shit again.

So, if the object was to get attention back on himself, success!
 

Iolo

Member
It's important to note that just because Trump's team succeeds in lowering expectations — an essential endeavor before any debate — there's still no guarantee Trump will meet or exceed them! But he could.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Taking a trip up to Vermont to get away from it all and do some psychedelics in the woods w/ friends before the first debate. Second I come home the popcorn's going on the burner. Can't wait!


To play the other side here, though, Nate Silver (yes, I know) brought up a good point--Trump's team is pretty crafty. Perhaps these stories are being leaked purposely to lower expectations in the media and public.

I didn't realize "crafty" was a synonym for "just completely awful"
 
It's important to note that just because Trump's team succeeds in lowering expectations — an essential endeavor before any debate — there's still no guarantee Trump will meet or exceed them! But he could.

The RNC is also lowering expectations, they know what they're dealing with.
 

thebloo

Member
It's important to note that just because Trump's team succeeds in lowering expectations — an essential endeavor before any debate — there's still no guarantee Trump will meet or exceed them! But he could.

It's also not a given that people will bite. His entire image is that he's a strong movie CEO type that walks into a room and gets it done. "Born ready". I don't think people really buy into the "poor Donnie, he's never done this before".
 
The thing they should be lowering their expectations on the most is the expectations that they'll win the election.

Like probably to 0 just to be sure.
 
I liked StoOgE's comparison of Hillary to Batman. I like that that metaphor will probably last with me, personally, until the end of her presidency.

But most of all, I like that it implies Tim Kaine is Robin, Boy Wonder.
 
Dems outperforming NC absentee ballots so far

CtCjb9PUAAEanT9.jpg
 
Obviously they're lowering expectations because they have to, but this is a campaign where everything has leaked (less so, admittedly, since Kellyanne). I'm pretty sure we'd know if he was doing traditional debate prep.
 

Revolver

Member
I'm going to keep my expectations low for the debate. I know everyone's expecting fireworks but I'm thinking Trump might just be low key and the press will praise him for being a different Trump than they expected and even looking presidential. I had a terrible dream a while back that he came off knowledgeable while Hillary was visibly rattled. I hope I'm wrong and the wheels come off and primary Trump comes out and starts name calling and bragging about his dick size again.
 
Taking a trip up to Vermont to get away from it all and do some psychedelics in the woods w/ friends before the first debate. Second I come home the popcorn's going on the burner. Can't wait!




I didn't realize "crafty" was a synonym for "just completely awful"
Please post on GAF about the debate while on drugs

GAF: "Hey, Clinton is doing pretty good!"
Cyanity: "JESUS DID YOU SEE THOSE DEVIL HORNS ON HER, ALSO HER TWO HEADS, THIS IS GOING TO SINK HER POLL NUMBERS FOR SURE"
 
Zuckerberg should probably be more careful not to employ more wildly racist and misogynistic Trump backers.

It's kind of a bad look and it's getting close to "why do all these homosexuals..."
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Oooooh, they're going to shake hands right? Can't wait to see Hillary's hand engulf Trump's stubby little cocktail wiener fingers.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Please post on GAF about the debate while on drugs

GAF: "Hey, Clinton is doing pretty good!"
Cyanity: "JESUS DID YOU SEE THOSE DEVIL HORNS ON HER, ALSO HER TWO HEADS, THIS IS GOING TO SINK HER POLL NUMBERS FOR SURE"


oh man, if I didn't have work/classes on Tuesday I would be on that in a heartbeat
 

kess

Member
Interesting age distribution on that chart. There's no peak on the youth vote on the Republican side. And somebody who is 105 is extending the age chart, cool.


EDIT: Durr, misread the chart
 
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