banefirelord
Banned
I chuckled.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Partly NPA, partly registered Republicans not voting for Trump.
My gut feeling hot take of the moment is that if Dems don't win the Senate, Hillary won't win re-election. 2018 is all but guaranteed to give both houses of Congress to the GOP. These next two years are Hillary's only chance to get a bare minimum of stuff done through the Senate. If she doesn't have that, she'll be viewed as a do-nothing or ineffectual president, rather than the victim of GOP obstruction and gridlock (which would be true, but, if 2014 and potentially this year are any indication, doesn't actually resonate with enough voters).
TestOfTide
Banned
It's also necessary because we will need a liberal SCOTUS to strike down voter suppression.
User 463088
Banned
Y'all are a damn mess. Bless your hearts.
balladofwindfishes
Member
They're not?
Kind of a bad costume if that's the case. I thought they were making fun of the scandal.
Which blue states does the GOP turn red to hit 270?
Citizens united too...
VendettaRed07
Member
And the redistricing case
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
But what about the last guardian? you can't ban yourself before that!
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
how what why?
did obama ever have a democratic senate?
he certainly didn't have one for the last four years and he we are with a democratic president
I have no idea.
If I saw them I'd probably think they were actual waiters too though so idk
Laevateinn
Member
God. Just send in the Visigoths. This empire is done.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Republicans only took the senate 2 years ago. At least Wikipedia says McConnell has been majority leader since the 2014 midterms
I don't remember.
whyamihere
Banned
lol right?
I have no idea. And it largely depends on the kind of nominee the GOP ends up with in 2020. But my instinct is that a fourth consecutive White House term for one party would be such a long shot all its own that I'm more compelled to think about variables that will break against Hillary rather than which demographic blocs will be firmly in Hillary's camp to mathematically deny the GOP again.
Obama had a Dem senate after each of his elections.
edit: wait! How did I forget the Dems actually kept the Senate in 2010? Sure didn't feel like it :lol
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obama had a Dem Senate for six years.
Came in with one in 2009, they lost the majority in the 2014 elections.
Came in with one in 2009, they lost the majority in the 2014 elections.
The Senate is necessary for a functioning Supreme Court, but barring how ridiculous the House investigations get the 2020 electorate should be more favorably Democratic than today.
Republicans are going to have to start defending Georgia, Texas, and Arizona more vigorously. Toss North Carolina into a similar pile to CO, VA, and PA.
Ohio might be gone though.
Six years. Obama had a democratic senate for his first six years.
TestOfTide
Banned
The only reason I am not TOO worried about the Senate is because Hillary's campaign has so much cash on hand that if they need to they absolutely can put last minute resources into extra groundgame staff for key senate races.
Like they practically have enough money that they could just hire hundreds of staff people for one week, send them to key senate states, and just cram a shitload of last minute GOTV.
Like they practically have enough money that they could just hire hundreds of staff people for one week, send them to key senate states, and just cram a shitload of last minute GOTV.
Shao Kahn on the Lawn
Member
"Dem" Senate. Joe Lieberman and the Blue Dogs weren't exactly reliable.
balladofwindfishes
Member
There are too many safe blue states. They'd have to turn Wisconsin or something, but even then, that's assuming the Democrats don't keep Nevada and other current toss up or slightly lean Republican states don't move more blue.
The country being so polarized is going to end up hurting the GOP in the presidency, because there are enough semi-safe blue states to equal 270. To the point where they'd need to convince Democrats to be on board with them, and that's not likely to happen anymore.
Bush's maps don't cut it anymore. Bush 2004, minus Virginia and New Mexico is a Democrat win.
If the GOP has a good nominee and Hillary's Presidency is bad/mediocre, that can happen. I think there's a fair chance of a recession at some point before 2020 too.
All those independent voters have gnat-brains and will forget this election by then.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Show me the map where the GOP hits 270.
NBC News is confirming that, so far, FBI agents have determined that only a "small number" of the 600,000 + emails from Weiner's computer could be relevant, and that they have a special program to determine which emails (in any) were from and to Clinton's private server, so as to not have to comb over those thousands of emails. They will likely just look for relevant keywords and senders.
It should be done by this week, although the investigation itself will take a while.
Most likely, information about how relevant the emails are will leak to the press in the coming days, confirming there's nothing much there and putting this story to rest. The narrative and consensus in the media is also now solidifying towards the idea that "Comey screwed up" by announcing there could be something, but not much.
Dave Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight is out with an article, confirming that so far, African American turnout is indeed lagging behind 2012 in states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Not by a ton historically, but relative to how Latinos and white liberals are surging. IN some counties in those states, heavy Latino counties have already surpassed their 2012 total vote participation. HIllary is basically compensating for lower turnout from AA with record turnout from Latinos and college educated whites. Arizona, he says, could still be in play.
He ends by saying that Hillary's coalition looks like it will be "broader" that Bill's in 1992, but "narrower" than Obama's in 2008.
It should be done by this week, although the investigation itself will take a while.
Most likely, information about how relevant the emails are will leak to the press in the coming days, confirming there's nothing much there and putting this story to rest. The narrative and consensus in the media is also now solidifying towards the idea that "Comey screwed up" by announcing there could be something, but not much.
Dave Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight is out with an article, confirming that so far, African American turnout is indeed lagging behind 2012 in states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Not by a ton historically, but relative to how Latinos and white liberals are surging. IN some counties in those states, heavy Latino counties have already surpassed their 2012 total vote participation. HIllary is basically compensating for lower turnout from AA with record turnout from Latinos and college educated whites. Arizona, he says, could still be in play.
He ends by saying that Hillary's coalition looks like it will be "broader" that Bill's in 1992, but "narrower" than Obama's in 2008.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Unreliable as they were, they also passed healthcare reform and Dodd-Frank among other things.
The only reason Obama had to count on Lieberman and others is because of a silly, arcane procedural mechanism that's been exploited and abused in recent years.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
They had 60 before 2010, then Scott Brown happened,,,
nature boy
Member
So what is going on in Florida
Low minority vote, but higher than 2012?
Low minority vote, but higher than 2012?
Fragamemnon
Member
We just can't seem to get the same % of African-American vote in NC that we got in 2012 in early voting. We're not even close right now.
Part of this is due to the early voting changes but if that was the case then the two African-American lines would be converging, and not parallel.
Need to blanket the state in volunteers and mobilize these voters.
Part of this is due to the early voting changes but if that was the case then the two African-American lines would be converging, and not parallel.
Need to blanket the state in volunteers and mobilize these voters.
Smith guy said Hispanic vote is way way up.
OMG the right hyped his ass up like no tomorrow.
Fixed...
We just can't seem to get the same % of African-American vote in NC that we got in 2012 in early voting. We're not even close right now.
Part of this is due to the early voting changes but if that was the case then the two African-American lines would be converging, and not parallel.
Need to blanket the state in volunteers and mobilize these voters.
African American turnout looks down across the board. This could be an EV phenomenon but I doubt it and it's very upsetting.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
It all goes back to the 2010 midterm. It's one thing to have a loss that colossal, it's another thing to have it happen in sync with the census and redistricting. Democrats got screwed for decades because of that.
nature boy
Member
Joy Reid ain't pleased!
We just can't seem to get the same % of African-American vote in NC that we got in 2012 in early voting. We're not even close right now.
Part of this is due to the early voting changes but if that was the case then the two African-American lines would be converging, and not parallel.
Need to blanket the state in volunteers and mobilize these voters.
Seems to be true everywhere. Obama's legacy is just not important enough to some, it seems.
balladofwindfishes
Member
We just can't seem to get the same % of African-American vote in NC that we got in 2012 in early voting. We're not even close right now.
Part of this is due to the early voting changes but if that was the case then the two African-American lines would be converging, and not parallel.
Need to blanket the state in volunteers and mobilize these voters.
Voter suppression laws working as intended?
Wouldn't be surprised if its because of younger black voters. We just aren't motivated to vote as the older generations are.
Looks like O'Keefe may have broken wiretapping laws with some of the videos he posted recently.
https://thinkprogress.org/james-okeefe-wiretapping-video-9c056e1a6339#.z815v7ohf
https://thinkprogress.org/james-okeefe-wiretapping-video-9c056e1a6339#.z815v7ohf
RastaMentality
Banned
I had a strong feeling this would end up happening but i wasn't quite sure since it wasn't being reflected in the polls. It sucks but the crime bill and superpredator stuff was effective at making young black voters apathetic about this election.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Why can't we go and tell representatives Kansas and Alabama and Mississippi that "pass this carbon tax, the money will be used to open battery research facilities in your states"?
This doesn't seem to happen much anymore
No shit.
This doesn't seem to happen much anymore
No shit.
There's still time to catch up, and there was good news this weekend from Ohio, where black voting turnout is finally catching up to 2012.
North Carolina and other states is tricky to compare to 2012 because of early voting changes, but let's see how it goes for the rest of the week.
Ha! What a fucking dumbass, you always check the state law before doing shit like that. It's not even that hard to check, there are multiple websites that have the information readily available so it doesn't become an issue.
We're taking over
Not voting = taking over how?
Piece of shit felon possibly commits another felony. Who would have thought?
How his shit gets any attention anymore, even from the moderate right, is insane.
IF that's the case. That pisses me off. If they'd rather stay home or brush this election off with a candidate like Trump running then they makes me very upset.
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