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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Y2Kev said:
Read wasserman's article if you want to see the comparisons. I get why turnout would be down vs Obama but it's still disappointing. And maybe dangerous.

I think it puts Michigan and PA in danger if they show up at like 80% of the rate. Are there lots of latinos in Pa? Lol.
Click to expand...

Why would Michigan or PA ever be in danger? Trump has never lead a single poll in either of those states as far as I remember.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Iolo said:
To clarify, it seems like polls are not overstating AA turnout --- they're probably already taking into account a decline over 2012. Hence why certain areas like Ohio are doing bad. But if polls are accurate, it also means PA is okay.

Of course Nate Silver said this morning nonpartisan response differential may prefigure systemic polling error, because of course he did. So, we should panic.
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I don't even know what this means.

balladofwindfishes said:
Why would Michigan or PA ever be in danger? Trump has never lead a single poll in either of those states as far as I remember.
Click to expand...

Let's assume you expect 10 black people to show up in your poll and split 9 to 1 for you. What if 6 show up?
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
Iolo said:
To clarify, it seems like polls are not overstating AA turnout --- they're probably already taking into account a decline over 2012. Hence why certain areas like Ohio are doing bad. But if polls are accurate, it also means PA is okay.

Of course Nate Silver said this morning nonpartisan response differential may prefigure systemic polling error, because of course he did. So, we should panic.
Click to expand...

What?
 
P

Paches

Member
Iolo said:
To clarify, it seems like polls are not overstating AA turnout --- they're probably already taking into account a decline over 2012. Hence why certain areas like Ohio are doing bad. But if polls are accurate, it also means PA is okay.

Of course Nate Silver said this morning nonpartisan response differential may prefigure systemic polling error, because of course he did. So, we should panic.
Click to expand...

hqdefault.jpg
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
RastaMentality said:
The crime bill criticisms definitely have some credence to them though and Bill hasn't done the best job of apologizing for it in the past year. The gay marriage positions of the 90s and 2000s didn't adversely hurt gay communities in the way mass incarceration has to black people. Ava's new Netflix documentary 13th (that's been making the waves with black youth) shows the Clintons apologizing for it but also shows them only changing it when it was most politically expedient.

it's definitely been something i've been struggling to defend over the past year but the Obamas saying ending mass incarceration is on the ballot is probably the best defense.
Click to expand...

This doc wasn't that great and as a lot of issues with it.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
31GhostsIV said:
Y'alright US PoliGAF? Here in the UK the media seems to be painting a picture of a possible Trump resurgence.

Please tell me this isn't true.
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National polling averages have tightened Hillary's lead to just 3% points, with trump having the momentum. Both candidates are very disliked, which I think is what makes polls seem particularly reactive to bad news cycles this year. The timing of this investigation announcement really could not have been worse.

Luckily, we haven't seen a ton of cracks in the stonewall states of PA, CO, NH, or VA yet, but we haven't seen a ton of recent polls from them either.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
I feel sorry for those who only follow 538 and follow it religiously. Apparently the stats have changed three times today, all with small upticks for Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if he's got it at 50/50 by election day and people are shitting themselves about it.

Voysa Reezun said:
...y'all know we're winning the Senate, right?

Right?!
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's the hope anyway. I wish the possibility were higher overall, though.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Prominent white nationalist William Johnson, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump’s campaign who was previously listed as a California delegate for the Republican National Convention, has paid for a new robocall targeting #NeverTrump independent candidate Evan McMullin in Utah.

According to an email from Johnson, he has scheduled the new robocall to begin going out to Utah voters on Monday evening.

“Hello, My name is William Johnson,” the audio recording begins. “I am a farmer and a white nationalist. I make this call against Evan McMullin and in support of Donald Trump.

“Evan McMullin is an open borders, amnesty supporter.

“Evan has two mommies. His mother is a lesbian, married to another woman. Evan is okay with that. Indeed Evan supports the Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage.
“Evan is over 40 years old and is not married and doesn’t even have a girlfriend. I believe Evan is a closet homosexual.

“Don’t vote for Evan McMullin. Vote for Donald Trump. He will respect all women and be a president we can all be proud of.”
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Nazis sweating badly about All Day Breakfast at McDonalds.

McMuffin's mom is a lesbian, but he has a father and his mom only divorced his father after McMuffin moved out.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...mullin-is-gay.html?via=desktop&source=twitter
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
This doc wasn't that great and as a lot of issues with it.
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What're your issues? i'm genuinely curious. I thought ascribing a majority of the issues to the crime bill was lazy but it doesn't detract from it being great. that trump montage was fantastic even if Mother Jones did it earlier this year.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Lord Frieza said:
I feel sorry for those who only follow 538 and follow it religiously. Apparently the stats have changed three times today, all with small upticks for Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if he's got it at 50/50 by election day and people are shitting themselves about it.



Yeah, that's the hope anyway. I wish the possibility were higher overall, though.
Click to expand...
Their model is also now in "tightening mode!!" so even if great Clinton polls come out it will adjust them down to where it thinks the race is.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
So, it looks like despite some of the craziness that happened this year, we're going to get almost exactly the map that people predicted at the end of June.

3nyY6.png


The most noteworthy things here are:
- Arizona and Iowa going blue. The latter is certainly more likely than the former, but I make this prediction for Arizona based on an optimistic "latino effect" and Trump's abyssmal GOTV.
- It's unknown whether McMullin can pass Trump in Utah. Big question mark.
- Not shown in the map, but the margins have been uncomfortably close for Republicans in states such as Missouri, Texas, and Georgia. Not especially important because this election is so unique and any reasonable Republican would not be hemorrhaging so badly on home turf, but it's certainly comical on this election.

The "hopium" was amusing but I'm glad to see most of GAF has gone back to its senses*.

*
I have everyone in here blocked so I'm not really sure if that's true, I'm just hoping as much.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The Lamonster said:
I hope there really is another damning Trump tape.

If there is, it needs to come SOON. Why would someone sit on this for so long?
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Because people are stupid and forget about things quickly.

See: Trump saying he's a sex criminal and then 12 women saying that Trump is a sex criminal being completely out of media discussion right now despite the tape coming out just three weeks ago.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
The Lamonster said:
I hope there really is another damning Trump tape.

If there is, it needs to come SOON. Why would someone sit on this for so long?
Click to expand...

Because generally you wait until the weekend before voting. I mean the access Hollywood tape while it did damage has pretty much left everyone's mind. We have short attention spans.

Release it on a Thursday and hopefully dominate that night, Friday and the weekend. Potentially depressing turnout.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
The Lamonster said:
I hope there really is another damning Trump tape.

If there is, it needs to come SOON. Why would someone sit on this for so long?
Click to expand...

Well, I mean, we don't really need it. Trump is already on his way to a lose, the most we can do is make it wider. I doubt there's another tape of Trump out there, or at if there is one whoever is holding it back so as to not potentially self-damage (such as NBC).
 
D

Dierce

Member
The Lamonster said:
I hope there really is another damning Trump tape.

If there is, it needs to come SOON. Why would someone sit on this for so long?
Click to expand...

I think if someone in Clinton's team has it they might not think it is necessary yet. They have access to a ton more data than we do and would know when the opportune moment is.

My guess is wait until after orange turds campaign makes the first move.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
DrForester said:
This seems as silly a thing to hold against Clinton as a gay person holding her previous position on marriage equality against her.

Times change and positions change. Surely it's more important to look at what she's doing now.
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I think the gay marriage switch works better because it's a lot more all or nothing. She's clearly never going to push banning gay marriage.

With systemic racism there isn't quite as simple of a solution, so it's a little more difficult to trust that the flip-flop will produce the result you want.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Fox News is seriously covering some random Wikileak of emails nobody cares about? That's their headline story on their web site right now.

Guess this Comey story is fading away.
 
L

Legato.Reborn-

Member
If Hillary wins, will T_D say:

1.) Of course she won, Trump is a fringe candidate. He brought a lot of baggage and we ignored it to our own demise.
or
2.) We've lost the country, there must be that many cucked liberals now. The election was rigged, we need to revolt. Kek didn't will it. Buy more guns. Invest in SWHC.

------

If Trump wins, will PoliGAF say:

1.) Of course he won, there was no excitement for Hillary. She brought a lot of baggage and we ignored it to our own demise.
or
2.) There are more racists, misogynists, and bigots in America than I thought; I'm moving to Canada. But the polls told me we were leading by +4/+6/+8/+12? Where were the Latino/African American/Women votes? But 538 said..



Regardless,

If Team T_D wins we get to see PoliGAF go nuclear.
+bonus: Amir0x will go Krakatoa and it will be heard across the world.
-notbonus: Y2Kev.exe will continue to be unresponsive.

If Team PoliGAF wins we get to see T_D and /pol/ go nuclear.
+bonus: We never have to talk bout T_D again.
+bonus: Y2Kev.exe will become responsive again.

This is why I'm officially announcing my support for Gary Johnson and the city of Aleppo.
 
G

Gattsu25

Banned
DontBeThatGuy said:
It's fitting it was that hack critic from the New York Post that had his jimmies rustled enough to be the only one to hate it.
Click to expand...
Yeah. 13th is pretty great and, regarding that NY Post review, I'm not surprised that someone who collects a paycheck from Rupert Murdoch didn't enjoy it.
 
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