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[Y2Kev]

It's worrisome to me because Pennsylvania depends on it. If she can't get AAs out we definitely will lose by a lot.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

There's still time to catch up, and there was good news this weekend from Ohio, where black voting turnout is finally catching up to 2012.

North Carolina and other states is tricky to compare to 2012 because of early voting changes, but let's see how it goes for the rest of the week.

Worth pointing out also is that Nate Cohn and The Upshot are tracking NC early voting and are finding that it's backing up their projects for the state (good for Clinton). They also anticipated black turnout.

 

[Mizerman]

IF that's the case. That pisses me off. If they'd rather stay home or brush this election off with a candidate like Trump running then they makes me very upset.

Same here.

 

[jmdajr]

NBC News is confirming that, so far, FBI agents have determined that only a "small number" of the 600,000 + emails from Weiner's computer could be relevant, and that they have a special program to determine which emails (in any) were from and to Clinton's private server, so as to not have to comb over those thousands of emails. They will likely just look for relevant keywords and senders.

It should be done by this week, although the investigation itself will take a while.

Most likely, information about how relevant the emails are will leak to the press in the coming days, confirming there's nothing much there and putting this story to rest. The narrative and consensus in the media is also now solidifying towards the idea that "Comey screwed up" by announcing there could be something, but not much.

Dave Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight is out with an article, confirming that so far, African American turnout is indeed lagging behind 2012 in states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Not by a ton historically, but relative to how Latinos and white liberals are surging. IN some counties in those states, heavy Latino counties have already surpassed their 2012 total vote participation. HIllary is basically compensating for lower turnout from AA with record turnout from Latinos and college educated whites. Arizona, he says, could still be in play.

He ends by saying that Hillary's coalition looks like it will be "broader" that Bill's in 1992, but "narrower" than Obama's in 2008.

That's too bad man

 

[Slayven]

We just can't seem to get the same % of African-American vote in NC that we got in 2012 in early voting. We're not even close right now.

Part of this is due to the early voting changes but if that was the case then the two African-American lines would be converging, and not parallel.

Need to blanket the state in volunteers and mobilize these voters.

Breaks my heart

 

[Diablos]

It's worrisome to me because Pennsylvania depends on it. If she can't get AAs out we definitely will lose by a lot.

PA isn't anything to worry about honestly.

 

[DrForester]

I had a strong feeling this would end up happening but i wasn't quite sure since it wasn't being reflected in the polls. It sucks but the crime bill and superpredator stuff was effective at making young black voters apathetic about this election.

This seems as silly a thing to hold against Clinton as a gay person holding her previous position on marriage equality against her.

Times change and positions change. Surely it's more important to look at what she's doing now.

 

[Boke1879]

Looks like O'Keefe may have broken wiretapping laws with some of the videos he posted recently.
https://thinkprogress.org/james-okeefe-wiretapping-video-9c056e1a6339#.z815v7ohf

I still don't know how the fuck didn't go to jail after the first time.

 

[Rockin' Ranger]

+1 for Hillary and Feingold. Glad to help send him back to the Senate.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

We're doomed without the n-word tape.

(We'll be okay)

Hopefully Hillary can build up goodwill with black millennials in the next four years.

 

[Debirudog]

There was no way she could get as high of a turnout as Obama's was in 2008.

 

[Plinko]

If you look at the numbers for President/IN-Gov's race, it basically seems like this particular Monmouth poll is +5-6 Republican compared to their last one (in all the races). The Hillary/Trump margin expanded the same amount. Gregg had a big lead so he could afford to get it cut in half.

Obviously Bayh isn't doing as well as he did in August, but I don't think he's slipped recently compared to the national horserace.

Oh, I didn't mean brutally effective when it came to polling/taking votes away. I was meaning the commercials have been really effective at cutting down Bayh's character. They've made me kind of dislike the guy, and I'm a democrat.

 

[Grief.exe]

It's worrisome to me because Pennsylvania depends on it. If she can't get AAs out we definitely will lose by a lot.

Nah, the white suburbs are looking blue enough to pick up any slack.

 

[Blader]

As shitty as it sounds, I genuinely hope depressed AA turnout is due to discriminatory voter suppression laws than antipathy toward Hillary, or the election in general.

It boggles my mind, given the alternative the GOP has up for president, that a single person in this country could feel apathetic enough about the election to not vote - especially in a swing state!

 

[mo60]

There was no way she could get as high of a turnout as Obama's was in 2008.

She will get better turnout than Obama got in 08 overall? I'm not sure about black voters yet.

 

[Pixieking]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793161058567483393

Nate Cohn Verified account
‏@Nate_Cohn

Polls show Clinton ahead in NC because Trump isn't doing well among white voters, esp well-edu whites. It's not bc of high black turnout

11:41 AM - 31 Oct 2016

 

[Y2Kev]

Read wasserman's article if you want to see the comparisons. I get why turnout would be down vs Obama but it's still disappointing. And maybe dangerous.

I think it puts Michigan and PA in danger if they show up at like 80% of the rate. Are there lots of latinos in Pa? Lol.

 

[Hopfrog]

Trump is about as close to an out-and-out George Wallace-type candidate on race that we have had in a while. If beating him is not enough of a motivation to get out and vote for black millenials (if they are indeed the group that is lagging behind) then I don't know what is.

 

[Iolo]

PA isn't anything to worry about honestly.

Faithless electors are, though.

The good news is that the reduction in AA turnout vs 2012, although marked, was right in line with Upshot's projections in NC so far.

 

[Paches]

I thought the blacks loved us.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Very disappointing if AA turnout does end up lagging behind 2012. I can understand not being enthused about Hillary in the same way as Obama, but I figured Trump would really energize the minority vote this election. It's very disheartening to me if that doesn't end up being the case, even with an overall win for Hillary.

 

[Diablos]

Faithless electors are, though.

The good news is that the reduction in AA turnout vs 2012, although marked, was right in line with Upshot's projections in NC so far.

Omg I was thinking worst case I'm not actually expecting that to happen

 

[Joeytj]

Nate Cohn is pushing back against the sudden fretting over polls being wrong because of low black turnout. He says all polls have taken this into consideration.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Polls show Clinton ahead in NC because Trump isn't doing well among white voters, esp well-edu whites. It's not bc of high black turnout

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
The danger to Clinton, IMO, is that well-educated, white, GOP-leaners come home

Yes, the Clinton campaign needs to push black turnout harder this week, but that's never been Hillary's main strength.

 

[CCS]

I have very little time for people who are choosing not to vote in this election. If you don't support Trump, I don't see how you can look at him and go "eh, I'd be okay enough with this guy to not bother voting."

 

[Grief.exe]

Faithless electors are, though.

The good news is that the reduction in AA turnout vs 2012, although marked, was right in line with Upshot's projections in NC so far.

Nate Cohn the best Nate.

 

[sturgboski]

Very disappointing if AA turnout does end up lagging behind 2012. I can understand not being enthused about Hillary in the same way as Obama, but I figured Trump would really energize the minority vote this election. It's very disheartening to me if that doesn't end up being the case, even with an overall win for Hillary.

I don't know man. Didn't you see all those all white men holding Blacks for Trump signs? Maybe we missed something...

 

[Boke1879]

Very disappointing if AA turnout does end up lagging behind 2012. I can understand not being enthused about Hillary in the same way as Obama, but I figured Trump would really energize the minority vote this election. It's very disheartening to me if that doesn't end up being the case, even with an overall win for Hillary.

The Latino turnout is high. I guess we'll see in the coming days what happens. There was good news in Ohio. Today an through the rest of this week the focus will be getting people out to vote so we'll see.

 

[XenodudeX]

Hopefully Black turnout will be better on election day. The fact that it's low so far in this election fucking boils my blood though.

 

[Iolo]

Very disappointing if AA turnout does end up lagging behind 2012. I can understand not being enthused about Hillary in the same way as Obama, but I figured Trump would really energize the minority vote this election. It's very disheartening to me if that doesn't end up being the case, even with an overall win for Hillary.

On the other hand --- if Hillary isn't energizing lower-propensity voters based on Trump, then perhaps Trump won't energize low-propensity voters based on Hillary.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I had to put my dog down today because she had cancer. Including earlier events, a Trump win would make this the worst year of my life. Thank Jebus he'll lose.

 

[Skiptastic]

Well in fairness even if he loses can you think of any other IN Democrat who could do as well?

Nope

Diablos is right. Even if Bayh loses, he had a better chance than Baron Hill. Todd Young had a cakewalk to the Senate. Bayh made him and others spend money in IN. That's part of a win right there.

 

[gutter_trash]

Looks like O'Keefe may have broken wiretapping laws with some of the videos he posted recently.
https://thinkprogress.org/james-okeefe-wiretapping-video-9c056e1a6339#.z815v7ohf

O'Keefe has a similar facial structure as Dirk from Dragon Slayer, but dorkyer

 

[31GhostsIV]

Y'alright US PoliGAF? Here in the UK the media seems to be painting a picture of a possible Trump resurgence.

Please tell me this isn't true.

 

[CCS]

I had to put my dog down today because she had cancer. Including earlier events and a Trump win this would be the worst year of my life. Thank Jebus he'll lose.

I'm so sorry to hear that *hugs*

 

[RustyNails]

So happy Trump is fucking about in Michigan 8 days out. Lol.

 

[Pixieking]

I had to put my dog down today because she had cancer. Including earlier events and a Trump win this would be the worst year of my life. Thank Jebus he'll lose.

Sorry to hear that.

 

[nature boy]

Didn't Mook say record turnout?

 

[Iolo]

Y'alright US PoliGAF? Here in the UK the media seems to be painting a picture of a possible Trump resurgence.

Please tell me this isn't true.

Trump already won. We are stuck in a Star Trek-like time loop trying to fix it.

Somebody call Big Data.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Y'alright US PoliGAF? Here in the UK the media seems to be painting a picture of a possible Trump resurgence.

Please tell me this isn't true.

It's not really

 

[Fragamemnon]

I wonder if the issue isn't as much AA's not voting-or reverting to pre-Barry levels of engagement-as much as it is white educated urbanites in NC being super-motivated due to HB2+Trump and making up a bigger part of the early vote share (high energy).

Note that (as of yesterday) the most frequented early voting site across the entire state in terms of volume is a library right outside of Research Triangle Park, which during the workday is one of the highest educated parts of the entire country.

That doesn't explain the uptick in Republican as a percentage over 2012 (unless the uptick is due to Republican defectors for Trump/Republican downticket), but it does make some sense out of the through the roof unaffiliated voters (along with hispanics).

 

[XenodudeX]

Y'alright US PoliGAF? Here in the UK the media seems to be painting a picture of a possible Trump resurgence.

Please tell me this isn't true.

Trump will lose. The only question is by how much.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

IF that's the case. That pisses me off. If they'd rather stay home or brush this election off with a candidate like Trump running then they makes me very upset.

The worst part is they'll turn around and blame others for their apathy or negative consequences when they could have stopped it.

I'm not too worried though about the whole election though. Clinton isn't campaigning like its that bad.

 

[31GhostsIV]

Trump already won. We are stuck in a Star Trek-like time loop trying to fix it.

Given the way my day has been I really wouldn't be shocked if this were true.

 

[RastaMentality]

This seems as silly a thing to hold against Clinton as a gay person holding her previous position on marriage equality against her.

Times change and positions change. Surely it's more important to look at what she's doing now.

The crime bill criticisms definitely have some credence to them though and Bill hasn't done the best job of apologizing for it in the past year. The gay marriage positions of the 90s and 2000s didn't adversely hurt gay communities in the way mass incarceration has to black people. Ava's new Netflix documentary 13th (that's been making the waves with black youth) shows the Clintons apologizing for it but also shows them only changing it when it was most politically expedient.

it's definitely been something i've been struggling to defend over the past year but the Obamas saying ending mass incarceration is on the ballot is probably the best defense.

 

[Fox318]

A true Star Trek loop would be if Stein won.

 

[Lord Frieza]

On the other hand --- if Hillary isn't energizing lower-propensity voters based on Trump, then perhaps Trump won't energize low-propensity voters based on Hillary.

I guess. I just don't see how minority voting wasn't really energized against Trump, though. Most of the most thinly veiled racists with a long history of racism just seems like it should energize minority voting to a high. I don't know, maybe as we get closer to election day it will improve.

 

[Pixieking]

Trump already won. We are stuck in a Star Trek-like time loop trying to fix it.

Somebody call Big Data.

Fucking Temporal Cold War.

Y'alright US PoliGAF? Here in the UK the media seems to be painting a picture of a possible Trump resurgence.

Please tell me this isn't true.

Glanced at the Telegraph site earlier and shook my head. Clueless. Hit The Washington Post and NYTimes sites for less stupidity (and less "it happened with Brexit" ignorance) than the UK papers.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Nate Cohn is pushing back against the sudden fretting over polls being wrong because of low black turnout. He says all polls have taken this into consideration.





Yes, the Clinton campaign needs to push black turnout harder this week, but that's never been Hillary's main strength.

IIRC a lot of people were hyping up the polling assumption of a reduced turn out when trump was gaining. Saying it wasn't going to happen.

Remember trust the polls and averages.

 

[thepotatoman]

Nate Cohn is pushing back against the sudden fretting over polls being wrong because of low black turnout. He says all polls have taken this into consideration.





Yes, the Clinton campaign needs to push black turnout harder this week, but that's never been Hillary's main strength.

But if well-educated, white, GOP-leaners come home, then the question turns back to what changed since 2012, which would probably be young people staying home.

 

[Iolo]

To clarify, it seems like polls are not overstating AA turnout --- they're probably already taking into account a decline over 2012. Hence why certain areas like Ohio are doing bad. But if polls are accurate, it also means PA is okay.

Of course Nate Silver said this morning nonpartisan response differential may prefigure systemic polling error, because of course he did. So, we should panic.