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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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C

Crimson_Gold

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Some black kid was assaulted yesterday in my area...

He was jogging, listening to music, and a white guy jumped out of his car and tackled him, thinking he was running away from stealing something (apparently "thugs" had been seen around the area lately). His excuse "I yelled at him, but he didn't stop running!" ...because he was listening to music you idiot. And why would he stop for some crazy guy?

Ugh...
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The Zimmerman patrol force will only grow if they're orange demigod, child of the god of buffoonery and a goat with a yeast infection.
 
B

Brawly Likes to Brawl

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Some black kid was assaulted yesterday in my area...

He was jogging, listening to music, and a white guy jumped out of his car and tackled him, thinking he was running away from stealing something (apparently "thugs" had been seen around the area lately). His excuse "I yelled at him, but he didn't stop running!" ...because he was listening to music you idiot. And why would he stop for some crazy guy, even if he could hear him? Also why do you tackle some kid who is pretty clearly just jogging (who steals stuff and runs away via jogging and listening to music?)

Ugh...
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Zimmerman-tier scumbag, I hope he gets punished.
 
B

BriGuy

Member
I went from being super hopeful last week to feeling like it's all over now. I know Trump has a narrow path to the White House, but I've got a terrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that he's going to navigate it. Like it's preordained or something. 2016 has been a horrendous year for logic, civility and the greater kinship of humanity, and I'm worried next week will be our turn to cast what little decency we have left on the pyre. I just can't deal with this election too much longer. It's making me physically ill.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Like no offense but he hasn't even led in Wisconsin Remington polls or junk survey monkey polls and they have early voting.
 
B

banefirelord

Banned
ShadowSwordmaster said:
Is half of poligaf going crazy right now because of what happen with the polls again?
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I think(?) everyone's mainly been panicking over less-than-ideal African American turnout in Florida. That WaPo tracker didn't help matters either.

Y2Kev said:
Like no offense but he hasn't even led in Wisconsin Remington polls or junk survey monkey polls and they have early voting.
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Do we have breakdowns of WI early voting? Haven't seen those bandied about.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
metalslimer said:
Man I'm glad I was young enough not to feel the full impact of that one. I do remember everyone thinking Kerry was going to win on election day though.
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Worst part is my father wasn't a citizen at that time, so he felt like it was completely out of his control.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
BriGuy said:
I went from being super hopeful last week to feeling like it's all over now. I know Trump has a narrow path to the White House, but I've got a terrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that he's going to navigate it. Like it's preordained or something. 2016 has been a horrendous year for logic, civility and the greater kinship of humanity, and I'm worried next week will be our turn to cast what little decency we have left on the pyre. I just can't deal with this election too much longer. It's making me physically ill.
Click to expand...

I've got a feeling that Hillary will win. Does my feeling override your feeling within Destiny? My feelings have been uncanny in sync with the universe, for reference.
 
Wiz

Wiz

Member
banefirelord said:
On this day in 2012, Romney was ahead by .1 in the (admittedly trash) RCP average. By contrast, Clinton is ahead by 2.2 in the RCP average.
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I see. And he ended up losing in a not-even-close fashion. IIRC, didn't Romney actually win on Election day, but because Obama had built such a commanding lead in certain states through Early Voting, it didn't matter.

Same could be true here, except Clinton gets a bigger win on Election Day. If the FBI thing turns out to be legit (it wont), then it could hurt her in some of those stretch states like AZ or GA.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Y2Kev said:
Like no offense but he hasn't even led in Wisconsin Remington polls or junk survey monkey polls and they have early voting.
Click to expand...

One of the overriding narratives that will weave throughout the first Clinton administration will be poll access and Gerrymandering. I think it's a natural fit to talk about that and police/prison reform as the Civil Rights battle of this generation.

It's going to upset a lot of White people, especially those over 50 who feel like, "We let them vote and gave 'em Affirmative Action, what are they so upset about!?"

The question is whether Millenials of color see this as effecting them, or go back to bothsiderism
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
We're one week out, looking at RCP past elections we can expect all od the major pollsters to drop their likely final polls starting probably today or tomorrow. Hold on to your butts.
 
B

Blader

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Not at all. It didn't even make a blip on polling.

A 13 point swing would be pretty much the largest shift in polling this entire election. It would imply the candidate went to jail or something extremely serious.
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What an age we're living in, where a candidate outright going to jail would only shift the polls by 13 points :lol
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
Wiz said:
I see. And he ended up losing in a not-even-close fashion. IIRC, didn't Romney actually win on Election day, but because Obama had built such a commanding lead in certain states through Early Voting, it didn't matter.

Same could be true here, except Clinton gets a bigger win on Election Day. If the FBI thing turns out to be legit (it wont), then it could hurt her in some of those stretch states like AZ or GA.
Click to expand...

I don't think so? I don't recall this being the case, anyway.

Teggy said:
Maybe Walker is out doing voter suppression. Anyone heard from him?
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Walker? Texas Ranger? Who are we talking about
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Blader said:
What an age we're living in, where a candidate outright going to jail would only shift the polls by 13 points :lol
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No matter what, Trump is getting at least 35% of the vote, so there isn't really a lot of room to move around.

He talked about committing sexual assault on camera and it didn't move the polls 13 points.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Blader said:
What an age we're living in, where a candidate outright going to jail would only shift the polls by 13 points :lol
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If Trump were jailed for shooting someone tomorrow, a majority of his voters would be questioning if it were a False Flag, yelling that the person shot "wasn't an angel" and perhaps "they deserved it"

Isn't hyper-polarization fun?
 
G

gutterboy44

Member
I thought when HRC was crushing polls people were worried about Dem apathy and that some tighter polls could help motiviate? Aren't all of these doomsday polls good for getting Dems to vote? Well, unless polls finally showing Trump in the lead convince the legions of bashful Trump supporters to venture outside and finally speak up and cast their vote.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
To those concerned- Until there is a crack in her firewall states, you have no reason to be concerned at all. If she gets those, she wins outright. Doesn't need anything else.

I think Wang is on the right track.
 
B

bangbang i'm a timpani

Banned
gutterboy44 said:
I thought when HRC was crushing polls people were worried about Dem apathy. and that some tighter polls could help motiviate? Aren't all of these doomsday polls good for getting Dems to vote? Well, unless polls finally showing Trump in the lead convince the legions of bashful Trump supporters to venture outside and finally speak up and cast their vote.
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they don't help her at all when its b/c she and her team are completely incompetent when it comes to using computers
 
N

newshinycd

Member
Did everyone forget that Trump has zero ground game, if any at all? And that he only has, what, $16 million on hand? AND he stopped fund raising for the GOP?

Ya'll need some Valium.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Dopey Nate throwing shade at Wang

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 37m37 minutes ago
538 models remain well-aligned with betting markets, which give Trump a 26% chance. Other models put Trump as low as 1%, which ¯\_(ツ)_/
Click to expand...
 
M

Maledict

Member
Why the hell is anyone looking at betting markets after Brexit. They were shown to be absolutely wrong, and not by a small margin? They got the result completely wrong in every respect.
 
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