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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
Steve schale is a little comforting. He says the electorate will be more diverse than 2012 due to increased Latino participation. White EV composition is down to 70% down 10 points from the start. And Hispanic turnout is up and growing. He expects blacks to be 13% which is not what obama had but we don't need it.
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Yeah, that sounds right to me.
 
R

Random17

Member
Hopfrog said:
Aren't there numbers somewhere showing that Clinton's favorability actually goes up when she is in office instead of campaigning? And nobody knows how the next four years are going to go so talking about Hillary losing in 2020 or stepping aside is really premature.
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Clinton's favorability is not going up much post election. Party polarization ensures a ceiling, and a sizeable number of Independents and even Bernie Democrats will continue to be annoyed. Single digit negatives to continue I think.

Without the House and actual progressive changes not much will happen imo.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Random17 said:
The problem with these maps is that they have no imagination. Who here in 2012 would have predicted a 6 point swing in Iowa to the GOP? The beginnings of a long term swing in Ohio? North Carolina suddenly becoming safer Dem than Florida?

I can absolutely see parts of the rural North becoming interestingly more GOP friendly, especially if rurality/ white small towns continue to decay.

A lot of Clinton's advantages with educated whites disappear with a nonidiotic GOP candidate. That's game set and match in the Rust belt and Northern states, imo in 2020.
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While the rural areas decay, the huge cities get bigger and bigger and have more of an influence on the states.

But okay

On the backs of Trump, the GOP secures the rust belt states and rural heavy states. But also on the back of Trump, the GOP loses the Hispanic vote for the foreseeable future.

2020
nJZEk.png
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A

Amir0x

Banned
Crab said:
Someone posted an article above you that basically answered your question. There's a huge chunk of the electorate voting Clinton and then voting Rubio - that is, not-Trump Latinx Republicans. The black vote is likely going to decline from 2012 onwards and the Latinx vote rise, but treating the Latinx vote like the black vote is a big mistake when it has a big history of involvement with the Republican party and has been pretty close as recently as 8 years back (and Republicans don't need to win it anyway, they just need to do well). If the Republicans can get a non "build the wall" candidate through the primaries and start to recover some of their historic Latinx vote, and the black vote continues to decline, then Clinton could very easily lose 2020.

It really depends on whatever the fuck happens structurally in the Republican party between now and the next election.
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You mean 12 years ago. Obama dominated Hispanics in 2008 iirc.

But really that is true a competent Republican party could capitalize. But, like, look at the devastation of stupid choices their party has made this election. The cliffs they were willing to jump off. Is it really a likely scenario they are gonna get their shit together for Latinos? They didnt do it after 2012. Does this party at war with itself look like it is in a place to do it after 2016? No.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Literally nearly everyone's favourability goes up when they're in office and not campaigning, with the exception of the President because they're constantly in the public eye. Most people don't tune into politics and they forget whatever they hated about X person.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
RustyNails said:
That abc poll turned out to be worse than IBD and LATimes.

13 point swing toward Trump in a week lol. Utter garbage.
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Tracking polls in general should be stopped. The Gallup one was bad in 2012 and they stopped... I guess we'll see how things shake up on Tuesday but it seems like the tracking polls will be wrong this year too.
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
Look, if Clinton wins Florida it'll likely be because of Puerto Ricans, and Latinos will help in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. My Puerto Rican sister, her husband, and daughter are voting Clinton in rural Pennsylvania.

So if Clinton wins, can she do us Latinos a solid and get rid of those horrible laws in border states that allows cops to stop us because we look Latino and could be potential illegal immigrants?

I've refused work trips to Arizona because the last time my brother was there, he kept getting stopped and asked to show his papers. That shouldn't happen in 2016.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
VanMardigan said:
Look, if Clinton wins Florida it'll likely be because of Puerto Ricans, and Latinos will help in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. My Puerto Rican sister, her husband, and daughter are voting Clinton in rural Pennsylvania.

So if Clinton wins, can she do us Latinos a solid and get rid of those horrible laws in border states that allows cops to stop us because we look Latino and could be potential illegal immigrants?

I've refused work trips to Arizona because the last time my brother was there, he kept getting stopped and asked to show his papers. That shouldn't happen in 2016.
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Theoretically she could also get a big bump from Cubans right? There was some movement toward her after the Cuban embargo story
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
A Human Becoming said:
As someone who lives in NH, I can assure you that's not the case. I really think NH has only become reliably Democrat because of Mass transplants who move here for the low taxes but commute back.
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As someone who has been helping he campaign in NH, the impression I get is that there are a shitload of Bernie Sanders fans. Some are fans of his because he was the antiestablishment candidate, but most actually liked the "equality" parts of Bernie's message. And the VAST majority are going to vote for Dems on the downballot no matter what.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
She said immigration reform is a first 100 days priority. Nothing will get done because of rethuglicans but she will try.

I do trust Nate Cohn. :)
 
S

Slayven

Member
RustyNails said:
Someone did but never posted the link to back it up. A poll with 13 point swing in one week is so garbage. A layman looking at it would think there was a sex scandal or something involved.
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Well Trump did have a sex scandal, did it swing that much when that went down?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Amir0x said:
You mean 12 years ago. Obama dominated Hispanics in 2008 iirc.
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I did mean 12 years ago. As a side note, fuck, I'm getting old. I initially typed 12 and was like "nah, that's way too long ago" and rewrote it as 8 without really thinking. :(

But really that is true a competent Republican party could capitalize. But, like, look at the devastation of stupid choices their party has made this election. The cliffs they were willing to jump off. Is it really a likely scenario they are gonna get their shit together for Latinos? They didnt do it after 2012. Does this party at war with itself look like it is in a place to do it after 2016? No.
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Yeah, this is the real question. I wouldn't want to hedge either way, though. I don't know how much a Trump loss will hurt the standing of that wing of the party, or to what extent grandees think they can change things or whatever. I'm not surprised things didn't change after 2012 - it's institutional inertia, right? Everyone in charge just goes "well, that was bad, but it wasn't *that* bad" and things keep going more or less the same way. Trump being the nominee is like waking up naked in the street with a cracking hangover and not remembering the past three months; you know you've hit rock bottom and something has to change.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
RustyNails said:
Someone did but never posted the link to back it up. A poll with 13 point swing in one week is so garbage. A layman looking at it would think there was a sex scandal or something involved.
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And before anyone mention Comey, there was a 10 point swing before Friday even happened. That poll is garbage.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
VanMardigan said:
Look, if Clinton wins Florida it'll likely be because of Puerto Ricans, and Latinos will help in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. My Puerto Rican sister, her husband, and daughter are voting Clinton in rural Pennsylvania.

So if Clinton wins, can she do us Latinos a solid and get rid of those horrible laws in border states that allows cops to stop us because we look Latino and could be potential illegal immigrants?

I've refused work trips to Arizona because the last time my brother was there, he kept getting stopped and asked to show his papers. That shouldn't happen in 2016.
Click to expand...

If only she could. We gonna need to start doing more than barely winning the Senate and still losing the house.

I think the best to hope for is her ability to nominate liberal Supreme Court Justices who will rule favorably on issues of immigration.
 
G

gutterboy44

Member
Seems this thread will no longer serve as a bastion of reason and calm for me. This final week is going to add some gray hairs for sure. I am not bed wetting, but I don't even want this to be a close race. I miss the talk of blow outs. Election day is also my son's first birthday, so it will be a hell of an emotional ride.
 
E

Effect

Member
Can I just have one day where I'm not waking up to news that gets my heart racing in a negative way. Ugh.

Like said I don't know what Hillary could have done more to get more black people to vote. I sit here as a black man I'm confused how any other black person can honestly sit there with a straight face, claim to care about about issues, and even entertain the idea that Clinton and Trump are cut from the same cloth. That's BS of the highest order even if you are just looking at them at a surface level. There is no way differences didn't cut through. You have to be willfully ignorant to take that stance. It's a different thing if you just aren't excited or like either person. Maybe that accounts for lower early voting? Is the intention to vote numbers down (assuming that can be polled)? Also with the none party affiliated voters there is no break down on race there right? Could that account for more AA voters that aren't being reported?

I can only hope that the increase in Hispanic voters and more whites voting for Hillary offset the lower AA number. Ugh. I want this to be over in a positive way. Are we seeing similar AA numbers in other states outside of FL and NC?

God I hope this strike in Philly is taken care of quickly. That's going to screw over a LOT of people.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I think Hillary's camp didn't focus on getting AA support enough because they thought in the current context it would scare away white voters which they desperately need. I blame Obama for not doing more on that end, but that's not surprising.
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That sounds ridiculous. It could be that the campaign thought they had a comfortable lead after the primaries, but they didn't do enough probably especially in FL where they focused on Latinos.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
The black vote was going to be down no matter who the candidate was. Obama was the first AA president and was an all star speaker and hype man. Hillary is a white old lady who isn't that good at hyping people up.

But Hillary gains college educated whites and women to make up for it. Also Hispanics, but I think that's more because of Trump, and not because of Hillary. I do think this is the election that is the "final straw" for college educated whites who will probably continue to vote Democrat, at least until the GOP cleans its act up (which it won't if it keeps winning local and house races).
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
PBY said:
I'm really not.


I'm just really pessimistic about this country. My parents are Cuban and they just voted for Trump, feel Iike maybe I'm too close to some of this.
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Cubans aren't nearly as monolithic, even in Hialeah, as they used to be. My mom's family is Cuban too, and everyone has members who just won't be stopped from expressing their biases. But that's not the entire story of how elections will swing.

Here's Hialeah's registration numbers.

IMG_20161019_094012.jpg
 
M

metalslimer

Member
bangbang i'm a timpani said:
doesn't matter, his press conferences are covered first vs. all the dem surrogates. thats all he needs.
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No one is watching these things on CNN in the middle of the day. The big news is how many of the local news stations covers them and Clinton and her surrogates can swamp the country while Trump can't. The rallies are also about getting out the vote so having surrogates helping do that is extremely important.

Also Trump not constantly hitting NC, Nevada, and Florida shows how desperate he is. The only way he can win is to flip a reliably blue state. He is not winning Michigan or Wisconcin so those are useless stops.

I mean come on people, the campaign is still firing on all cylinders right now with a good ground game and a lot of money to spend on ads.
 
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