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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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Jesus people, it's one NC poll from a low quality pollster with an absurd number of undecided voters. Let's ignore the barrage of great NC polls from the past week, including landline only and R-partisan polls, along with the fact that both dems ans republicans see the state going blue.
Undecideds are idiots who cant see what a complete disgrace and unqualified person orange turd is. It says a lot about the individual casting the vote when you can look past a mother fucker that has proven to be racist, sexist and completely ignorant overall.
Oh yeah.
Wow it's like the same guy traveled from the future. He must know who won...
can you just answer my question without foaming at the mouth mate?
tedrotheredro
Member
Nah, I think we'll be calm and collected, not overreacting to polls or media stories. Smooth sailing.
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
People are dumb. So dumb, in fact, that they do not deserve a nuanced analysis of what makes them undecided a week out from election day with an orange bombastic bastard on the ticket. These people are dumb.
That is it.
Dumb.
I really am sick of having to analyze and explain a Trump supporter's position or someone who has been led to believe that the decision between Trump or Clinton is too difficult to make. Their opinion does not deserve a rational, well-thought-out inspection.
JetBlackPanda
Member
big time
StormBrute
Member
Honestly, I think I'm going to avoid here for the next week for the sake of my own sanity. Reading every update on it won't do me any good.
TumblingHippo
Member
What was the OT like for the 2012 election? I kind of want to dive into that for comparison.
……forgetit
Member
Are my conservative Facebook friends crazy, or did Chris Mathews endorse Trump?
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Romney is about to win his second term.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Yep. We're going to need a lot of bleach to clean this mess up after it's all over.
banefirelord
Banned
Here's the OT for the weeks right before election day.
Bigly
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Brother, I've already switched to huffing glue.
i_am_ben
running_here_and_there
Maybe those people on heroin in rural America have the right idea.
For the record -
I don't think this anxiety is bad. I think Hill will win, but the fact that Trump even has a puncher's chance is wholly different than 2012. Romney would have been a fine "bad" president, in that he would have fucked over minority groups and the economy could have tanked - but we'd still have a republic.
I totally understand the Trump fears, it seems only normal to me.
I don't think this anxiety is bad. I think Hill will win, but the fact that Trump even has a puncher's chance is wholly different than 2012. Romney would have been a fine "bad" president, in that he would have fucked over minority groups and the economy could have tanked - but we'd still have a republic.
I totally understand the Trump fears, it seems only normal to me.
RustyNails
Member
I blame Square Enix. If we had FFXV to play, we wouldnt be sniffing clorox every waking minute.
nature boy
Member
Wut
Guess they're playing it safe
HAHA desperate
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
1. Extra money
2. Countering Trump's return
Exactly. I could have handled a Romney presidency. McCain. Kasich. MAYBE even a Cruz. Maybe.
But Trump is a different story altogether. I don't like the Russia ties. I don't like his tax plan that will all go to the rich. It is scary for me.
The Lamonster
Member
aren't you the optimist
Fragamemnon
Member
Think they just have a lot of extra money to spend. Same with WI, though that might be to help the senate race there too.
Perhaps Mr. Silver would like to step forward and explain to the class which of these probabilities for which outcomes is wrong. After all, Mr. Wang's model is open source.
Of course, he can't. So he shitposts.
The constant model bashing is tiring. Nate's model hedges more and at the end of the day I hope he has it right because he gives Clinton the biggest chance of a blowout.
The most likely scenario in Wang's model is 325 for Clinton. In Nate's its 360.
If Clinton get's ~360, will Nate get crucified for hedging on Trump, or get called a genius for predicting the right outcome?
TumblingHippo
Member
Oh my. TY, but this quote here: "So what the heck is going on with this election? I know the economy is still rough, but I don't understand how Romney can be seen as a legitimate candidate. "
The choice of words there is funny. What polls have looked grim? I take this as her playing it safe since she has money to burn.
I mean... Polls DO look good there and early voting DOES look good there. Though it and WI are probably the two most "vulnerable" states in the firewall (Clinton leads by about 6-8 in both aggregates) so might as well shore them up.
Fine, we're genuinely fine all things considered. The Senate is the only real thing to bedwet about anymore.
Of course emotions will run high in the final stretch of the election. It always does. That's what's so great about American elections. Winner takes all, loser pours Bailey's in their Cheerios. There is no recall election for the President, no 'No Confidence' vote, only a severe crime stops the train for the next 4 years. We either feather the landing with Hillary or we get the extinction level event with Trump.
whyamihere
Banned
Considering the early vote/polls, yeah. They're probably trying to take out Coffman too.
Fragamemnon
Member
What kind of statistical torment do you have to do to get that much area under the curve past 280 or so EVs for Trump? No wonder his model % are so nutters.
nature boy
Member
No reason to bedwet over CO
Trump campaign spends $25 million in ads and no PA? SAD!
This is actually kind of comforting. Seems like you guys always just act this way. :lol
If you are undecided on whether to support Clinton then you are allowing this country to be taken over by a tyrannical moron and his cult who have nothing but disdain for other races, cultures and progress.
If you were a Sanders supporter you can forget about any of his ideas ever existing in this country after trump ravages the federal government and makes the population much more apathetic towards democracy.
I don't know I just read the FBI might be doing some drip drip bs. Someone tweeted about it.
Fragamemnon
Member
man that post from 2012 if fab. It's got everything.
Can't wait for this++++
Can't wait for this++++
But it's the same statistical torment that's predicting ~360 for Clinton. Wang barely gives her a chance at 360. If that is the outcome and Nate's model gets it right, is he really wrong?
TumblingHippo
Member
This pre-2012 election thread is great. The mentions of Jill Stein and Trump in it are also fascinating.
Yep, Ari Melber said the FBI is considering doing real time updates as the emails are checked.
Sorry if this was posted earlier but what is this shit?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
A tracking poll that like all tracking polls should be thrown into the dumspter.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
That makes absolutely no sense. I could see making a strong play for PA, but no one even talks about New Mexico or Michigan as anything other than safe blue.
elvisaintdead
Member
Does anyone have a good article or something on what is actually wrong with tracking polls that makes them swing like that?
Crimson_Gold
Member
Unprecedented. What is this...
They switched over to a daily tracker with reduced sample sizes and accuracy. Same thing happened in 2012.
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