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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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M

Maxim726X

Member
Fragamemnon said:
real talk-if you take away the garbage trackers and partisan dumpster polls, doesn't this race basically look as steady as it's always been?
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Eh. I wouldn't say as steady.

Because Trump has basically shut his stupid mouth for a few weeks, his numbers crept up a little.

It would still take him flipping a strong D state or two to win, assuming he gets almost every toss-up state. So I'd say chances are still quite low.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
nature boy said:
Yes but that's landline only

MI is safe blue anyway
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I'll ask this because I don't know: Wouldn't a landline-only poll be slanted republican, since older people are more likely to have landlines?

Hasphat'sAnts said:
WI is a much more likely play
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Agreed, and I'm puzzled why they aren't targeting that state.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
VariantX said:
Why can't they just wait until they actually have something solid and then talk about it?
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Gotta keep those GOP senate seats.
The publics wants to know about a nasty president elects nasty woman emails.

Not an orange flaming twat's Russian ties.

Choices, y'know.
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
Plinko said:
I'll ask this because I don't know: Wouldn't a landline-only poll be slanted republican, since older people are more likely to have landlines?



Agreed, and I'm puzzled why they aren't targeting that state.
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That just means the poll will be less accurate post sampling adjustments due to underrepresented demos
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Is there any polling that suggests Trump is within even striking distance in Michigan?
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most polls have hard time finding a good sample of (read: exclude) inner city detroit, a notorious hotbed of support for DJT. if an ex goldman sachs banker says DJT is within striking distance, then who am i to cast doubt?
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
pigeon said:
Trump has already said his goal is to depress African American turnout by demoralizing people.

If you expect AA vote to be low, and you know you win low-college whites and unions don't help Dems much, Michigan is an obvious state to target. It's pretty much all African-Americans and low-college white voters.

Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, and eventually Wisconsin and Minnesota are all states that the GOP probably views as attackable, in the same way that we see Georgia, Texas, and Arizona as attackable. If Trump were leading by 10 instead of behind by 10 those are the states where Trump would be posting +1 leads every so often.
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That makes sense then. Thanks Pigeon!
 
M

MoxManiac

Member
sazzy said:
Are you worried about the ABC poll?

Don't be.

1mE1IW.png
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I just wet my bed.
 
T

ThLunarian

Member
I feel like Trump produces an utter disgust factor that is difficult for polls to account for.

I think his unique repulsiveness will drive more people to vote than any of the polls are accounting for. Then you also have the next-level GOTV advantage that Clinton has.

I think Clinton will blow Trump out of the water, I think we will take back the Senate with a comfortable margin, and I think we are more likely than not to take the House.

I look forward to the political slaughter next Tuesday.
 
R

Random17

Member
The fact that the ABC poll has a good history +/- 1℅ is not conforting at all.

Trump could win the election if it's a tie as ABC suggests.

Highly unlikely but possible.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Grief.exe said:
Guys. You don't lend credence to a poll that just dove 14 points.

You throw it in the trash.
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Especially when that drop isn't corroborated by other polls (IPSOS, Morning Consult, SurveyMonkey, YouGov). Hell, IBD actually shifted a bit toward Clinton while ABC was cratering.

We don't know for sure but there's a lot of speculation in this thread and among pundits and other analysts that they may have shifted their methodology. Even 538 people are raising an eyebrow at it.
 
A

A Serious Man

Member
Random17 said:
The fact that the ABC poll has a good history +/- 1℅ is not conforting at all.

Trump could win the election if it's a tie as ABC suggests.

Highly unlikely but possible.
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I didn't realize we did away with the EC and just hand it to whoever wins the popular vote now.
 
R

Renji_11

Member
Yeah throw it in the trash but even if it's wrong the it's clear we aren't getting a that 6 or 8 point blow out it looked like 2 weeks ago.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Wikileaks “sourced” conspiracy theories linking Hillary Clinton to ISIL are going viral in China
Articles claiming Hillary Clinton is the key culprit in the birth of ISIL are going viral on China’s internet, attracting hundreds of thousands, and maybe millions, of readers—many who know little other information about the US presidential frontrunner, because of China’s censorship.

The articles, which started appearing after the FBI announced on Oct. 28 that it has uncovered new emails that might be linked to its investigation of the Democratic nominee’s private email server, carry anti-American and anti-democracy messages, and call Clinton a “culprit” or “teammate” of the Islamic State terrorist group.

They are being widely, and freely, shared on WeChat, China’s most popular messaging app, despite Beijing’s ban on sharing rumors or speculative news stories there.

The articles typically lack solid sourcing, rely heavily on meme-like images with overlaid text to support their storytelling, and are riddled with profanities. And they have gone big, with at least three attracting 100,000 page views on WeChat, the biggest viewership number the app shows.
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While the articles are easy to disprove outside the Great Firewall, there’s less information inside it. They use screenshots from news sites like the New York Times and MSNBC—both blocked in China—in an attempt to give them more credibility. An article from Insight China (link in Chinese), a blog about overseas studies, uses a screenshot from the New York Times to introduce the FBI twist, but the headline says “Hillary is connected to ISIS.”
screenshot-wechat-insightchina.png
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This time the main allegation against Clinton is arguably more absurd but also more tantalizing. At least six of my WeChat friends, many of them university-educated and well traveled, shared the Cool Labs article on WeChat, something I didn’t see last time.
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I am thinking about how difficult it has been for the US media to cover the lies of Donald Trump. In a sense this sort of mass communication of lies and falsehoods is liable to be very problematic for even countries that try to control the flow and direction of information like China.

I think we might have to think harder in the upcoming decades about how anyone anywhere, regardless of nationality or education, is susceptible to misinformation and conspiracies.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Renji_11 said:
Yeah throw it in the trash but even if it's wrong the it's clear we aren't getting a that 6 or 8 point blow out it looked like 2 weeks ago.
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I actually still wouldn't be surprised if we did get a 6 or 8 point blowout. In 2012, Romney's polling average was essentially tied with Obama. Obama won by four points. In 2016, Hillary is winning by far more in polling aggregates. And Trump has zero ground game, unlike Romney.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Random17 said:
The fact that the ABC poll has a good history +/- 1℅ is not conforting at all.

Trump could win the election if it's a tie as ABC suggests.

Highly unlikely but possible.
Click to expand...

Why are you comparing the previous years' final vote to this year's week before vote?

Here's how I read that chart:

There's a 'true' value of Clinton% Trump% (which we find out on election day).

The tracking poll eventually meanders towards that true value, with its best estimate being the final poll result.

If the ABC tracking poll says Trump 46% Clinton 45% on Nov 8th, THEN i'd be worried.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Is there any polling that suggests Trump is within even striking distance in Michigan?
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I think what's more telling is the only poll that has ever shown Trump ahead in Michigan is the one by Ipsos, which should be taken with a grain of salt because it's a national poll divided up by state and he was only up by 1%.

Trump isn't going to win Michigan. I'd say spending any time there only shows the incompetence of his campaign but honestly, I can't even come up with a list of possible states that would be enough to win at this point. States like Colorado, Pennsylvania and NH are just too out of reach now.
 
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