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[CoffeeJanitor]

Shit

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

There's no data on the why... people are taking this as a sign of lower black enthusiasm... but there's also reports of purged voters and fewer voting locations near black voters

 

[BrokenFiction]

This type of data isn't useful now given that we know 28% of GOPers in FL broke for Hillary. I need more input more input!

 

[bigwinnerx]

DON'T WORRY PHILLY IS TOTALLY FINE

 

[Diablos]

If Clinton is holding a steady lead of 5 points there's no way that RCP map is legit.

This is a bad time to mention the transit strike in Philly that could affect turnout downtown, right?

Yes

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Been reading reports about how the Clinton campaign actually expected lower black turnout. Nate Cohn/Upshot's NC early voting tracker also based on polls was forecasting lower as well and they're still confident in a solid win there for Clinton based on what they're seeing.

Hopefully white women bring the goods as well.

 

[BrokenFiction]

This is a bad time to mention the transit strike in Philly that could affect turnout downtown, right?

I heard that they agreed to suspend it on Election Day?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

If Clinton is holding a steady lead of 5 points there's no way that RCP map is legit.

RCP doesn't believe her lead is 5 points, because they grab any garbage polls and throw them into their raw number average.

 

[Y2Kev]

And yet that was in the models. Please look at godcohn's new article this morning.

It's hopium day. Do some reading please.

 

[gkryhewy]

I heard that they agreed to suspend it on Election Day?

Still not true, but hopefully it will over by then anyway. Most polling places are walking distance from homes; issue is more commute delays that eat into people's available time per day.

RCP doesn't believe her lead is 5 points, because they grab any garbage polls and throw them into their raw number average.

Case in point: they turned NC red solely on the basis of yesterday's bad poll, per RCP guy on morning joe

 

[Y2Kev]

This is a bad time to mention the transit strike in Philly that could affect turnout downtown, right?

Congressman bob Brady says they are close.

HELLO GET THE MEMO. ITS HOPIUM DAY

 

[nature boy]

USC/LATimes Trump +6

Please spare the humiliation and shut this POS down

 

[bigwinnerx]

I heard that they agreed to suspend it on Election Day?

If so, my bad. I'll kill my post.

Actually, nevermind, I'm not a legal scholar, but, it doesn't seem like it's an "agreement".

"SEPTA officials said in their statement Tuesday that if the strike looks as if it will continue through Nov. 8, the agency will pursue legal action to force the union to lift the strike for Election Day.

“If we foresee an agreement will not come to pass, SEPTA intends to seek to enjoin the strike for November 8th to ensure that the strike does not prevent any voters from getting to the polls and exercising their right to vote,” the agency said in its statement."

 

[Zukkoyaki]

USC/LATimes Trump +6

Please spare the humiliation and shut this POS down

Need those trendz, son.

 

[thestopsign]

Why is Nevada going for Trump there? Has he been leading in the polls at all?

The rest I can believe even if I think no matter what at this point that NC, FL, and IA are all going to Clinton.

Edit: Well... they included a +4 Remington Research poll, so yeah.

 

[jmdajr]

It's wednesday! Less than a week to go.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 19m19 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down. Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"

Everyone with access to higher quality private polling continues to say that Clinton is roughly 5 points ahead. That, combined with the early voter data, is massively more important that what these trash robocall polls show.

Why is Nevada going for Trump there? Has he been leading in the polls at all?

The rest I can believe even if I think no matter what at this point that NC, FL, and IA are all going to Clinton.

Beyond the polls, we have enough early voter data in NV to say that Clinton has a substantial lead there. Her support would have to crater on election day to swing it. Thats why Trump is trying for WI and MI.

 

[Y2Kev]

Why is Nevada going for Trump there? Has he been leading in the polls at all?

The rest I can believe even if I think no matter what at this point that NC, FL, and IA are all going to Clinton.

It has a ducking Remington poll tilting it. Stop looking at rcp!

 

[Laevateinn]

There's no data on the why... people are taking this as a sign of lower black enthusiasm... but there's also reports of purged voters and fewer voting locations near black voters

Exactly. The black vote is down because the VRA no longer exists. By election night, most of the gap will hopefully be made up.

Also, it's encouraging that the white female is the group that has the largest increase.

 

[maquiladora]

.

Whats a Johnson?

 

[Spiritreaver]

Also, it's encouraging that the white female is the group that has the largest increase.

Noticed this too. I want to see more gender break downs of EVs.

 

[Plinko]

"Closer race" means people check polls more, meaning more clicks on the website.

It isn't that hard to see what RCP is doing here, people.

 

[Gattsu25]

Wasn't this the state that got in trouble for textbook racial discrimination in setting voting policy? (rhetorical question, the answer is yes)

Were they also one of the states that heavily reduced voting registration sites for black neighborhoods?

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Also, it's encouraging that the white female is the group that has the largest increase.

No, this is terrible! White women are flocking to Trump because they're all having sex dreams about him! The White Baby Boom is coming!

 

[nature boy]

MOAR

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 6m6 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 3m3 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 35s36 seconds ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"

 

[Plinko]

I'll take those.

 

[crowphoenix]

Whats a Johnson?

According to some tee shirt I saw in a surf shop once, it's a white, nerdy dude that may or may not be compensating by holding power tools in front of his crotch while standing over scantily clad, busty ladies.

 

[Plinko]

I find it interesting that the non-partisan pollster says bigger lead than democrat pollster.

 

[Emarv]

MOAR

Harwood the MVP delivering that truth. No need for hopium. The race is still where we thought it was.

 

[Y2Kev]

He's just adjusting for nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error

 

[User1608]

MOAR

Awesome!😃

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I find it interesting that the non-partisan pollster says bigger lead than democrat pollster.

Actually doesn't surprise me that the dems are playing conservatively and safe by assuming that it's tighter than it probably is. Like in a playoff game, never take your foot off the gas. Play like it's the NBA and you're down 20.

 

[Good Job Bob]

It's too bad we have to rely on the mumblings of private pollsters to try and get a feel of where the race is. Hopefully some quality state and national polls drop today.

 

[Y2Kev]

You guys aren't accounting for nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error

 

[Blader]

2-6 seems like a pretty big spread.

 

[Emarv]

You guys aren't accounting for nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error

Silver strikes again!!!

Spoiler

first Nate post of the day?

 

[Boke1879]

Yea I'll take that

 

[nature boy]

You guys aren't accounting for nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error

Take your Dopey Nate talking points outta here fella

 

[Amir0x]

Six point final spread was my exact final prediction.. hope we outpace even that though.

 

[Incognito]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 3m3 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

wth is this? why not just say 1-20 IMHO? good god. must be mark penn. or bob shrum.

 

[Emarv]

Six point final spread was my exact final prediction.. hope we outpace even that though.

Yup. I'm sticking by my +6.5 "landslide" victory.

In Mook GOTV we trust.

 

[Spiritreaver]

But I thought we were losing MI because Hillary is having a rally there and bought one ad.

 

[Iolo]

He's just adjusting for nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error

see, this guy gets it

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I think the Dem pollster is being extra cautious to not fall into Romney's traps where his own polling showed him winning.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

wth is this? why not just say 1-20 IMHO? good god. must be mark penn. or bob shrum.

That's not that large a spread, it's just that 2 points feels like pants-shitting territory. But what it's saying is that there still is no path for Trump, and there is no statistical tie.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

/pol/ is sensing their shot at relevancy slipping away. I'm thinking I may have to create a Reddit account (or ten) to troll them next Tuesday.

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll-watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home. The National Socialist Movement, various factions of the Ku Klux Klan and the white nationalist American Freedom Party all are deploying members to watch polls, either “informally” or, they say, through the Trump campaign.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

 

[TestOfTide]

MOAR

That better be BEFORE taking into account Hillary's GOTV advantage.

With the GOTV advantage, Hillary only winning by 6 points or less is still disgraceful, because that means that the percentage of deplorables in my country has INCREASED since 2008.

 

[SexyFish]

/pol/ is sensing their shot at relevancy slipping away. I'm thinking I may have to create a Reddit account (or ten) to troll them next Tuesday.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

If someone gave me liquor and marijuana I would just celebrate really hard after I watch Trump meltdown that night.

 

[Ithil]

/pol/ is sensing their shot at relevancy slipping away. I'm thinking I may have to create a Reddit account (or ten) to troll them next Tuesday.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

Please report that there will be people with illegal drugs attempting to hand them out near the polls. Look for swastikas, bad haircuts and questionable dental hygiene.

I would take some of the liquor though, and use it to celebrate after Clinton wins.

 

[Pyrokai]

This is probably best case scenario right now, right?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/NKKDV

I'm thinking it will probably be this.....wish we could have added Arizona. Also, Ohio MIGHT be lost as well but who knows.