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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
Winning close is not really that acceptable to me. Close avoids the GOP from attempting reform and validates Trump's campaign. We also need a majority Senate to get some semblance of a functioning government.
 
E

edible_candle

Member
Hasphat'sAnts said:
It's time to give up on Iowa, friends.
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adam387 said:
Iowa is clearly trending away from us. It has been for a bit.
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Ugh. My county will be one of the few in Iowa voting blue this election. I really, really hope Iowa doesn't go red. We're at risk of a completely Republican controlled state government, and I would rather not be a part of Kansas 2.0. Our incredibly white demographics are threatening to drag us down this election.
 
E

ezrarh

Member
edible_candle said:
Ugh. My county will be one of the few in Iowa voting blue this election. I really, really hope Iowa doesn't go red. We're at risk of a completely Republican controlled state government, and I would rather not be a part of Kansas 2.0. Our incredibly white demographics are threatening to drag us down this election.
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Sorry Iowa, you don't have enough black women to save you in the future.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Why polls are dying

CwQslzVWgAEsW_t.jpg:large
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
adam387 said:
http://iowastartingline.com/2016/11/01/where-iowas-early-vote-stands-one-week-out/

Iowa early vote information. Basically, the assumption was if we could hit 90% of 2012 we can probably eek out a win. That's where we are right now.
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I suspect Iowa and Ohio go Dem one more time but they're probably gone long term. Maybe Clinton could win them in 2020 if she won in a landslide but I see them being like Missouri was like eight years ago (winnable for Dems under the right circumstances).

If Clinton is up 6 points I think she ekes out IA, OH and AZ by 1-2 points each. But AZ will be a more permanent gain.
 
B

bachikarn

Member
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/01/beware-phantom-swings-why-dramatic-swings-in-the-p/

Good article on polling variability

We believe that most of the bounces seen in surveys this year represent sampling noise that can be reduced or eliminated by adopting by better statistical methodology. We risk a repetition of 2012 where polling swings were largely statistical mirages.
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Although we didn’t find much vote switching, we did notice a different type of change: the willingness of Clinton and Trump supporters to participate in our polls varied by a significant amount depending upon what was happening at the time of the poll: when Although we didn’t find much vote switching, we did notice a different type of change: the willingness of Clinton and Trump supporters to participate in our polls varied by a significant amount depending upon what was happening at the time of the poll: when things are going badly for a candidate, their supporters tend to stop participating in polls. For example, after the release of the Access Hollywood video, Trump supporters were four percent less likely than Clinton supporters to participate in our poll. The same phenomenon occurred this weekend for Clinton supporters after the announcement of the FBI investigation: Clinton supporters responded at a three percent lower rate than Trump supporters (who could finally take a survey about a subject they liked).


Although we didn’t find much vote switching, we did notice a different type of change: the willingness of Clinton and Trump supporters to participate in our polls varied by a significant amount depending upon what was happening at the time of the poll: when things are going badly for a candidate, their supporters tend to stop participating in polls. For example, after the release of the Access Hollywood video, Trump supporters were four percent less likely than Clinton supporters to participate in our poll. The same phenomenon occurred this weekend for Clinton supporters after the announcement of the FBI investigation: Clinton supporters responded at a three percent lower rate than Trump supporters (who could finally take a survey about a subject they liked).


Failure to control for non-response will result in “phantom swings” – polls bouncing because of changes in sample composition despite no change in individual voting intentions. Of course, most pollsters try to correct for differences in sample composition be weighting samples to reflect population demographics. However, for reasons discussed below, demographic weighting is often ineffective in removing the type of nonresponse associated with campaign events.
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J

jmdajr

Member
So I guess there is no Trump video of him dropping N bombs. I think that's about the only thing that would get headlines.

All this tax stuff is weak sauce. sadly.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Is keeping UT, winning ME-2 and WI to win 270-268 his only even semi realistic path at this point?

I see no way he gets NV with those ridiculous early vote numbers.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Amir0x said:
Msnbc said Clinton campaign just told them doubling ad buys now in Arizona and Georgia

*crosses fingers*
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They have to be feeling good about the race.

I'd say for any state Clinton is tied in or down 1-2 points, having a rock solid GOTV operation compared to nothing on the Republican side is going to pay dividends.
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Amir0x said:
Msnbc said Clinton campaign just told them doubling ad buys now in Arizona and Georgia

*crosses fingers*
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This combined with her planning fireworks and still campaign in Arizona just shows me that their internals look better than the polls we have been getting. She is a very cautious person and there is no way she would be doing this if she wasnt 100% sure she was going to win.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Trump is right that the media sucks, but not for the reasons he says.

NPR, PBS, and WaPo are good though <3 Television news is the worst culprit.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
Winning close is not really that acceptable to me. Close avoids the GOP from attempting reform and validates Trump's campaign. We also need a majority Senate to get some semblance of a functioning government.
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GOP reform is a lot farther off than I thought it was. The deplorable base wants what it wants, and the party elites have zero leverage over it. It totally owns them. Short of losing the House, TX and GA, nothing will change their minds. And if they win in 2020, that'll put it off even longer. The only reform in the GOP we're likely to see anytime soon are some alterations to the ways GOP primaries are conducted. Their strategy is working well for the medium term. And their goals are assymmetric compared to ours: they only need one two-year period of control of the Presidency, House and Senate to reverse the New Deal and Great Society and destroy the social safety net. And while their demographics are in decline, our coalition is much less devoted to preserving and restoring the safety net than theirs is to destroying it. Given the way veto powers are set up in the constitution, I have little faith that we'd ever be able to get, say, Medicaid back after it gets repealed. It is easier to be the barbarians than the Romans, because the barbarians only need to win once.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
Winning close is not really that acceptable to me. Close avoids the GOP from attempting reform and validates Trump's campaign. We also need a majority Senate to get some semblance of a functioning government.
Click to expand...

Elections aren't really about what's acceptable to someone beyond their individual ballot. The liberals who didn't accept Kerry losing in 2004 only made themselves look silly. If you want a better result use the next six days to do virtual phone banking and, if you're in a swing state, contact the local Democrats about going door to door.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Anyone else think the 28% of Republican crossvoters in FL are perhaps the female members of the household who were too scared to say they weren't voting for Trump infront of their husbands/fathers? We talked about this a while back. This is a documented occurence in Iowa.
 
Thaedolus

Thaedolus

Member
RustyNails said:
Anyone else think the 28% of Republican crossvoters in FL are perhaps the female members of the household who were too scared to say they weren't voting for Trump infront of their husbands/fathers? We talked about this a while back. This is a documented occurence in Iowa.
Click to expand...

I just can't believe the numbers could be that high.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
On the plus side if she wins without Ohio people can stop saying that thing about how no ____ has won the election without winning Ohio since ____. As goes Ohio blablabla.
 
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