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[A Serious Man]

/pol/ is sensing their shot at relevancy slipping away. I'm thinking I may have to create a Reddit account (or ten) to troll them next Tuesday.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

Has there ever been an US Presidential election that was so clearly good vs. evil?

 

[MoxManiac]

/pol/ is sensing their shot at relevancy slipping away. I'm thinking I may have to create a Reddit account (or ten) to troll them next Tuesday.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

Could this actually have an effect or am I just drenching my sheets again?

 

[tedrotheredro]

His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home.

Free liquor/weed? I might have to make a pitstop!

Like seriously, how would that even work logistically.

 

[phisheep]

He's just adjusting for nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error

No, quite the reverse. He is adjusting for systemic polling error leading to nonpartisan response bias. It's entirely different.

 

[banefirelord]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

Because clearly black people are totally going to accept presents of weed from a random-ass skinhead white dude.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

This is probably best case scenario right now, right?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/NKKDV

I'm thinking it will probably be this.....wish we could have added Arizona. Also, Ohio MIGHT be lost as well but who knows.

I wouldn't say this is the best case scenario.

I think this probably is the best she can do.

 

[Ithil]

Could this actually have an effect or am I just drenching my sheets again?

Not even remotely. They'll get about 20 people who actually sign up and turn up, then realize they don't have enough change between them to buy any decent amount of liquor.

Then they realize they forgot all day to actually vote for Trump while they were milling around hounding over change, and the polling stations have closed.

 

[banefirelord]

I wouldn't say this is the best case scenario.

I think this probably is the best she can do.

#IBelieveInAlaska

 

[Diablos]

2-6 points? That's uh quite a spread

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Could this actually have an effect or am I just drenching my sheets again?

What's more likely?:

1. Black folks accept weed and malt liquor from random white dudes, get trashed and don't vote

or

2. The idea pisses them off and people are resolved to show up to vote AND spite a band of shrimp-dick losers

 

[balladofwindfishes]

#IBelieveInAlaska

It's only fitting, with the Bob Ross marathon going on, on Twitch.

 

[Barzul]

Why is CNN comparing early voters numbers from 2008?

 

[Pyrokai]

I wouldn't say this is the best case scenario.

I think this probably is the best she can do.

Pre-FBI crap, I would say this was doable, but now I'm starting to think that Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona might be lost

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

It's time to give up on Iowa, friends.

 

[bananas]

You guys see this?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Can we go ahead and have a disclaimer for the upcoming Wisconsin poll that it's still just one poll and isn't the word of god regardless of what the numbers are? Also Marquette has swung people wildly the election and in 2012 (just so everyone knows!)

 

[Boke1879]

2-6 points? That's uh quite a spread

My take. At the absolute worst she's win by 2. The best is she wins by 6.

Definitely a spread but probably covering the bases. Probably why Clinton is spending money and visiting her "safe" states. Take nothing for granted.

 

[Emarv]

Yglesias preaching truth. The average American has no idea what the policy stakes are if Trump wins with a fully Republican congress. And the media is partly at fault for buying into his sensationalism and not pushing back on actual policy.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/2/13483020/policy-stakes-2016

 

[NeoXChaos]

Iowa Starting Line ‏@IAStartingLine 13h13 hours ago
Results from Iowa Youth Straw Poll taken at high schools. Next generation of Iowa voters sure don't like Democrats

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Pre-FBI crap, I would say this was doable, but now I'm starting to think that Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona might be lost

We've had several polls over the last few days that show the FBI thing had no effect.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Trump won the MN high school straw poll too.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Iowa, go back to being America's pantry and be quiet

 

[Iolo]

could this just be partisan non-response bias, systemic polling error, or perhaps both?

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

could this just be partisan non-response bias, systemic polling error, or perhaps both?

It's a high school straw poll. We've got enough stuff to wet our bed, come on guys.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Can we go ahead and have a disclaimer for the upcoming Wisconsin poll that it's still just one poll and isn't the word of god regardless of what the numbers are? Also Marquette has swung people wildly the election and in 2012 (just so everyone knows!)

whyamihere already did yesterday, and I agree. Even if this thing says Clinton +20, it's a single data point.

 

[User 463088]

Iowa is clearly trending away from us. It has been for a bit.

 

[Iolo]

but aren't straw polls objectively the most accurate type of poll, because they directly measure enthusiasm?

 

[nature boy]

Wow that Targetsmart FL poll really fell off the map
Expected the media to play around with it

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Wow that Targetsmart FL poll really fell off the map
Expected the media to play around with it

Who cares about Hillary potentially getting a fourth of the Republican vote, there are EMAILS EMAILS EMAILS to worry about

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Yglesias preaching truth. The average American has no idea what the policy stakes are if Trump wins with a fully Republican congress. And the media is partly at fault for buying into his sensationalism and not pushing back on actual policy.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/2/13483020/policy-stakes-2016

We have to get Americans accustomed to a functioning gov't again before people start giving a shit about policies that don't directly effect their everyday lives.

The strategy of hobbling gov't, then running on, "See! gov't doesn't work!" has been an amazing success. We have nearly two generations of voters who have been bathed in Reagan-esqe philosophies of ripping the guts out of Democracy and telling the folks who fall behind its their fault for not boot-strappin' hard enough. It's literally taken a massive demographic shift to even begin to combat it, but Conservatives still have enough clout to continuously throw sand in the gears, while at the same time depressing the vote of people who are fighting back against them.

 

[Paches]

Wow that Targetsmart FL poll really fell off the map
Expected the media to play around with it

Doesn't fit the narrative. Nor does reporting on early voting in Nevada, which is tracking to be the same as Obama '12.

 

[Boke1879]

Wow that Targetsmart FL poll really fell off the map
Expected the media to play around with it

Nah man we need dat horse race narrative.

 

[Ithil]

but aren't straw polls objectively the most accurate type of poll, because they directly measure enthusiasm?

The most accurate polls use heart monitors.

 

[Slayven]

/pol/ is sensing their shot at relevancy slipping away. I'm thinking I may have to create a Reddit account (or ten) to troll them next Tuesday.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

Cause rednecks asking black people if they want liquor and weed will go off well

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Wow that Targetsmart FL poll really fell off the map
Expected the media to play around with it

They were always going to.... It takes away some of the horse race narrative.

 

[Felix Lighter]

Yglesias preaching truth. The average American has no idea what the policy stakes are if Trump wins with a fully Republican congress. And the media is partly at fault for buying into his sensationalism and not pushing back on actual policy.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/2/13483020/policy-stakes-2016

A while back someone posted the increased revenue CNN saw due to Trump in this election cycle. Sensationalism and just focusing on juicy scandal headlines is not going to change any time soon.

Also, I was thinking about Trump's Super Pac investigation the Telegraph reported on last week. On video, soliciting money from a Chinese source, the kind of thing television networks would be all over. That shit is never going to get much coverage here because massive super pac scandals are going to push campaign financial reform and that means millions and millions of dollars lost in ad revenue for these networks.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Iowa is going for Hillary.

 

[Laevateinn]

If we want a functioning democracy, we need to stop watching CNN.

 

[witness]

If we want a functioning democracy, we need to stop watching CNN.

I don't have cable, are they still only talking about fucking emails?

 

[BadRNG]

Iowa is going for Hillary.

what if they decide last minute to let high schoolers vote?

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Yglesias preaching truth. The average American has no idea what the policy stakes are if Trump wins with a fully Republican congress. And the media is partly at fault for buying into his sensationalism and not pushing back on actual policy.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/2/13483020/policy-stakes-2016

"both sides are the same tho"

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Where is this confidence in Iowa coming from? I thought we gave up on Iowa over a month ago?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I don't have cable, are they still only talking about fucking emails?

Almost a week later and through several new, developing stories that are far more interesting to cover.

Yes, they are still trying to make this emails thing into a thing that changes the election.

 

[BiggNife]

I think I need to take a break from this thread for a few days because the constant up-and-down of the polls/EV is definitely raising my anxiety

See you guys in a few days probably

 

[wumster3000]

Iowa is going for Hillary.

I don't know. There is something strange going on. Why now in a swing state?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...officers-killed-ambush-style-attack/93155024/

 

[Emarv]

I'm not as convinced on Iowa. I have more faith in Ohio, personally. (Though both are moving away long term)

I'm basically leaning on Mook's experience in Ohio to win out, but either way it'll be close. I could totally see Iowa going +2 Trump, but maybe I'm being too pessimistic.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I don't know. There is something strange going on. Why now in a swing state?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...officers-killed-ambush-style-attack/93155024/

What does this have to do with the election?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The weekend brought rumblings of dem surges at least in Ohio. I'm not sure Hillary is going to win either of them but I don't think they're lost.

 

[nature boy]

Speaking of Ohio

Trump 49% (+5)
Clinton 44%

@trfgrp 10/24-26

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitc3JzeUJiN3MxZHc/view

Note: Never heard of the pollster, looks landline only

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Where is this confidence in Iowa coming from? I thought we gave up on Iowa over a month ago?

Early voting is catching up to 2012 I believe, and remember Obama won Iowa in a walk. D votes are about 10% percent behind 2012 right now. She ain't winning by anything close to six points but it is definitely not out of contention.