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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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jiggle

Member
The other day someone posted a list of the most recent polls where it shows ABC poll outlier, can someone link me to it, My boss was showing me how Trump was in the lead based on that only poll I want to show him is just an outlier. I also told him about the latest results from florida, I dont think he gets it too much.
It will be more satisfying if you don't
On Wednesday be like
raw
 

TyrantII

Member
I'd say this picture is a good representation of how much of an advantage clinton has. This is her getting 2/10 swing states.

ynWzwWG.jpg

You gave her Florida, which besides OH is probably going to be the closest state if 2000-2014 is any barometer.

I think Florida has a greater chance of being lost than Ohio honestly.
 

Boke1879

Member
I know, such a(nother) dereliction of duty. But, with her coming forward and her site supposedly being down and/or under attack, this might be the Oppo Droppo, old or not. Bringing it to light now will be the nail in the coffin if the news covers it.

Rape is far beyond grabbing a pussy. Raping a 13yr old is heinous and an instant disqualifier.

Oh I completely agree. Putting a face to this person might be what the media needs to actually report on this in detail I mean his court date for this is in September.
 

Iolo

Member
The other day someone posted a list of the most recent polls where it shows ABC poll outlier, can someone link me to it, My boss was showing me how Trump was in the lead based on that only poll I want to show him is just an outlier. I also told him about the latest results from florida, I dont think he gets it too much.

Show him the LAT/USC poll where Trump is at +5.
 

embalm

Member
All of my neighbors have Clinton yard signs. One of the apartments has an "'H' with her" flag hanging from their patio.

So that's +3 for the yard signs and +150 for all of the apartments that the "H" flag covers.

Does that drag Ohio back to a toss up or can we finally call it for Hillary?
 
There hasn't been a good decent national polling done since Pew on 10/25 besides NBC/SurveyMonkey. The void has let dailytracking junk to fill up and bring averages down.
 

Boke1879

Member
Supposedly there is another Wikileaks scandal today ? That trump will specifically address tomorrow ? Fuck I hope it's nothing.

Quite frankly I don't know why we give wikileaks the time of day. They have nothing and this close to the election most certainly won't mean anything.

Also this means Trump or someone in his campaign is in contact with them if he knows about it lol.
 
It's about a 50/50 split for Trump and Clinton signs here in rural Northern(ish) VA. Someone spray painted "CHUMP" over a big Trump sign someone had put out on our little back road intersection a few weeks back and that was a fun time.
 

madp

The Light of El Cantare
All of my neighbors have Clinton yard signs. One of the apartments has an "'H' with her" flag hanging from their patio.

So that's +3 for the yard signs and +150 for all of the apartments that the "H" flag covers.

Does that drag Ohio back to a toss up or can we finally call it for Hillary?

I should take pics of all of the farmers here who have fifty Trump/Pence signs apiece spaced evenly along the edge of their property. Ohio was doomed the second that John Husted approved suffrage for cows.
 

Grief.exe

Member
The wikileaks story on the top of r/The_Donald seems to be the Justice Department informing the Clinton Campaign of another public hearing again.

I haven't confirmed this yet.
 

Nafai1123

Banned
I don't see why you guys are focusing on yard signs/flags and completely missing the all-important hat metric. Yards don't vote and flag poles don't vote, but people do...and people wear hats.
 

rSpooky

Member
So no one is worried about Nevada? Early voting ends Friday but our lead is kinda dwindling.
No..it is all pullpuckey..but it keeps democrats and others not liking trump on notice to go vote.

She is going to win big.. Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina . at least..

It will be over soon.. It will be an overwhelming victory and it will be glorious.



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... Please?
 
Supposedly there is another Wikileaks scandal today ? That trump will specifically address tomorrow ? Fuck I hope it's nothing.

Trump said they will be releasing something later today. Wikileaks said on Sunday that "Phase 3" will be launched this week. I assume Phase 1 was the DNC hack and Phase 2 was the Podesta email hack.
 
This is good.

More from her:

Lily Adams ‏@adamslily 14m14 minutes ago
NV: Over half a million people have voted so far and turnout in Clark Co is up 17% compared to this point in 2012. Dems still outpacing GOP

Lily Adams ‏@adamslily 9m9 minutes ago
NC: Dem counties surging - Durham outpacing '12 by 19%, Mecklenburg County, outpacing '12 by 6%, and Wake County outpacing '12 by 17%.

Lily Adams ‏@adamslily
FL: Over half a million African American voters have cast ballots so far which is ⅓ higher than at this point in 2012.

I wonder if the surge in hispanic voting, Latino Decisions thinks 2 million more latinos will vote this election, is causing people to confuse it with a decrease in black turnout.

For instance, and these numbers are being made up and not accurate by me, if last election it was 70% white non-hispanic, 15% black, 10% hispanic, 5% other and this year it's 67% white, 13% black, 13% hispanic, 7% other, this doesn't mean AA vote is down. It just means they make up a smaller portion of the electorate because more non-white (not hispanic) and non-black people are voting too.

I'm not arguing AA vote isn't going to be down, it probably will be because Obama isn't there. But it also might be overstated because the influx of new latino and other ethnicities might be making it seem worse than it really is.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Yeah, Nevada is still running pretty similar to 2012 when Obama won by about 6.5 points. It's going to be fine! Also the large increase in NPAs are impacting the percentages this cycle.
 

Loudninja

Member
More from her:







I wonder if the surge in hispanic voting, Latino Decisions thinks 2 million more latinos will vote this election, is causing people to confuse it with a decrease in black turnout.

For instance, and these numbers are being made up and not accurate by me, if last election it was 70% white non-hispanic, 15% black, 10% hispanic, 5% other and this year it's 67% white, 13% black, 13% hispanic, 7% other, this doesn't mean AA vote is down. It just means they make up a smaller portion of the electorate because more non-white (not hispanic) and non-black people are voting too.

I'm not arguing AA vote isn't going to be down, it probably will be because Obama isn't there. But it also might be overstated because the influx of new latino and other ethnicities might be making it seem worse than it really is.
Great stuff.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I've been deliberately off-grid all day. Looks like the Presidency is still solid.. it might not be by the gaudy margin we all want, but the job will be done. Clinton could win by 1EV or by 300EVs, and the GOP will deny that she has a mandate or any sort of legitimacy; fuck 'em.

Senate looks promising, too. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Illinois all look like decent-to-solid pickups. Nevada looking safer. Which means we need one more out of (NC/FL/IN/MO/WI) to get to 50.

I still tend to think that the Wisconsin Senate race is ours. And I'm willing to bet that we see at least one of the others fall our way. My not-so-secret hope is that we see something like 2012, where most of the close Senate races fell our way. 51 is looking miiiiighty doable. Hell, 52 wouldn't be shocking.
 
Everything from Wikileaks has been nothing this entire election

In terms of contents, sure. In terms of impact?

Quite frankly I don't know why we give wikileaks the time of day. They have nothing and this close to the election most certainly won't mean anything.

Also this means Trump or someone in his campaign is in contact with them if he knows about it lol.

To no one's surprise.

Trump said they will be releasing something later today. Wikileaks said on Sunday that "Phase 3" will be launched this week. I assume Phase 1 was the DNC hack and Phase 2 was the Podesta email hack.

Gah. Whatever it is, hopefully it's nothing too big. Seems awfully close though.
 

Anno

Member
Currently stuck in traffic outside of the Morse Road early voting center in Columbus, OH. Sure seems far more busy today than usual.
 
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