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[Iolo]

I wonder if the surge in hispanic voting, Latino Decisions thinks 2 million more latinos will vote this election, is causing people to confuse it with a decrease in black turnout.

For instance, and these numbers are being made up and not accurate by me, if last election it was 70% white non-hispanic, 15% black, 10% hispanic, 5% other and this year it's 67% white, 13% black, 13% hispanic, 7% other, this doesn't mean AA vote is down. It just means they make up a smaller portion of the electorate because more non-white (not hispanic) and non-black people are voting too.

Where we see the AA vote share going down we also see the white share going up.

 

[Barzul]

Need my Trump to English translator. He's given up hasn't he?

 

[Black Mamba]

.

these types of numbers aren't that useful. We don't know if there's a surge in Dem and indies over republicans here, for example.

And the Republican counties combined are less than Miami-Dade.

Where we see the AA vote share going down we also see the white share going up.

Not necessarily.

What if Florida 2016 has the exact same amount of white people and black people vote, except more latinos and asians/others vote?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

You mean the pace that was essentially identical to the same time period in 2012, except we're doing better in Washoe County? okay.
These days always such for us.

But Dems are underperforming overall vs. 2012.

In 2012 before Election Day, Dems had a 48,000 overall lead and 71,000 in Clark.

Dems had two bad days, hoping today is better.

 

[Debirudog]

The beginning of the end... -_-

 

[jtb]

Those FL AA numbers are super encouraging. Makes me think that the NC numbers are far more influenced by the targeted voter suppression than a drop-off of enthusiasm -- which (should?) bode well.

 

[harriet the spy]

In turns of impact ZERO.

You don't think it affected Hillary's polls? The perception of being corrupt? I mean don't get me wrong, republicans already hated her - but I think a significant proportion of americans, out of misogyny and other reasons, are looking for reasons to not vote for her. They don't want to but don't want to appear bigoted (including to themselves). The 'leaks' makes them feel good about acting according to their basest instincts.

I mean the fucking Comey letter is the ultimate anti-leak in terms of contents, and one cant' argue her polls have taken a further hit after it.

 

[gkryhewy]

Need my Trump to English translator. He's given up hasn't he?

It's like Bilbo talking to his birthday party at the beginning of Fellowship of the Ring.

 

[RustyNails]

Currently stuck in traffic outside of the Morse Road early voting center in Columbus, OH. Sure seems far more busy today than usual.

There's this amazing Somali restaurant on Morse rd. Make sure you try it at least once.

 

[Fragamemnon]

But Dems are underperforming overall vs. 2012.

In 2012 before Election Day, Dems had a 48,000 overall lead and 71,000 in Clark.

Dems had two bad days, hoping today is better.

don't people read ralston? The first two days of the last week are always weak and then Dems clobber it the last three days as the site locations change.

edit: wondering if the nutters polling this week is due to bedwetting dems refreshing the web/twitter instead of responding to polls last Friday

 

[Boke1879]

You don't think it affected Hillary's polls? The perception of being corrupt? I mean don't get me wrong, republicans already hated her - but I think a significant proportion of americans, out of misogyny and other reasons, are looking for reasons to not vote for her. They don't want to but don't want to appear bigoted (including to themselves). The 'leaks' makes them feel good about acting according to their basest instincts.

I mean the fucking Comey letter is the ultimate anti-leak in terms of contents, and one cant' argue her polls have taken a further hit after it.

We have data that the Comey stuff made little to no impact.

 

[Loudninja]

Need my Trump to English translator. He's given up hasn't he?

The beguns have started

 

[sturgboski]

Need my Trump to English translator. He's given up hasn't he?

Ugh now hes stealing from the Smashing Pumpkins? Figured as Billy Corgan is a Trump supporter.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Just voted in DC. +1 for Clinton and Kaine.

I'm fully expecting that statehood prop to get shot down in Congress.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

don't people read ralston? The first two days of the last week are always weak and then Dems clobber it the last three days as the site locations change.

He's also said that if Dems get to 50,000 in Clark it's almost impossible for them to lose the state

 

[Pyrokai]

There's this amazing Somali restaurant on Morse rd. Make sure you try it at least once.

Morse Road is a mess *air horn*

 

[Iolo]

Not necessarily.

What if Florida 2016 has the exact same amount of white people and black people vote, except more latinos and asians/others vote?

Then hispanic share goes up, black share goes down, and white share goes down.

But hispanic share went up, black share went down, and white share went up.

Not reported is asians, though. No one ever reports asians.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Need my Trump to English translator. He's given up hasn't he?

As much as I like making fun of Trump's speaking style, he's clearly saying it's not the end, just the end of the campaign and beginning of his Presidency.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

That Jay Z GOTV event might have been better served in FL, PA, or NC given the situation in Ohio.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

That Jay Z GOTV event might have been better served in FL, PA, or NC given the situation in Ohio.

The internals are probably not as bad as some of these polls.

 

[HanShotFirst]

Jesus its hard to keep track of Poligaf these days. For every bit of good news there's like 2 bed wetting!

Might as well be optimistic: I say Clinton wins by 8-10 points.

 

[davepoobond]

so is wikileaks done posting podesta emails or are there more from him

 

[Roland_Gunner]

.

Yeah, clearly Trump has fired up parts of the GOP base. The plus side is that outside of Lee, these are pretty small counties. Al five combined had fewer the half the votes from Miami Dade in 2012. Here are the totals from that year:

Lee - 266K
Manatee - 153K
Sumter - 60K
Baker 11K
Hernando 83K

Miami Dade - 879K

 

[Grief.exe]

so is wikileaks done posting podesta emails or are there more from him

Well they had 50,000 I believe. How close are we to that number?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Well they had 50,000 I believe. How close are we to that number?

Yesterday around 42,000. They release about 1000-2000 a day

 

[johnsmith]

From inside the Clinton camp

Lily Adams
Lily Adams‏ @adamslily

FL: Over half a million African American voters have cast ballots so far which is ⅓ higher than at this point in 2012.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Yeah, clearly Trump has fired up parts of the GOP base. The plus side is that outside of Lee, these are pretty small counties. Al five combined had fewer the half the votes from Miami Dade in 2012. Here are the totals from that year:

Lee - 266K
Manatee - 153K
Sumter - 60K
Baker 11K
Hernando 83K

Miami Dade - 879K

And Dems are performing decently in Miami Dade so that is good.

 

[Ty4on]

You gave her Florida, which besides OH is probably going to be the closest state if 2000-2014 is any barometer.

I think Florida has a greater chance of being lost than Ohio honestly.

I'm pretty sure Trump will get OH unless Clinton wins big. It's a deviation from 2012 with a lot of whites lacking college degrees versus NC which is more diverse and educated.

 

[Black Mamba]

Then hispanic share goes up, black share goes down, and white share goes down.

But hispanic share went up, black share went down, and white share went up.

Not reported is asians, though. No one ever reports asians.

You weren't supposed to actually answer me, lol.

We don't know if the black share went down. The election hasn't happened, in total, yet!

There's also the issue of some hispanic voters self-selecting as white but voting like most hispanics.


edit: i'd also like to add that Trump is going to do worse than Romney among indies and GOPers overall. So Dems may underperform a bit but it could easily be made up by those R's and indies, anyway.

 

[Boke1879]

Just remember people. If he loses Florida the race is pretty much over.

 

[BSsBrolly]

Just remember people. If he loses Florida the race is pretty much over.

If he loses FL, NC, or OH, it's pretty much over. He needs all three.

Edit: plus any combo of the two of CO, NV, or NM.

 

[Iolo]

Jesus its hard to keep track of Poligaf these days. For every bit of good news there's like 2 bed wetting!

Might as well be optimistic: I say Clinton wins by 8-10 points.

We should set up a collaborative website to track all the bedwetting. We could call it something like "Wikileaks."

 

[Abinash117]

That Jay Z GOTV event might have been better served in FL, PA, or NC given the situation in Ohio.

Jon Bon Jovi is going to perform in Tampa.

Katy Perry is going to perform in Philly.

Steve Aoki is going to Las Vegas.

Don't know if anyone is going to NC, but they already going in hard in NC.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Jon Bon Jovi is going to perform in Tampa.

Ketty Perry is going to perform in Philly.

Steve Aoki is going to Las Vegas.

Don't know if anyone is going to NC, but they already going in hard in NC.

Pharrell and Sanders are going to NC.

 

[Boke1879]

Jon Bon Jovi is going to perform in Tampa.

Ketty Perry is going to perform in Philly.

Steve Aoki is going to Las Vegas.

Don't know if anyone is going to NC, but they already going in hard in NC.

This will be NC.

Kyle Griffin
@kylegriffin1
Inbox: Clinton to campaign with Bernie Sanders and Pharrell Williams in North Carolina on Thursday, November 3.

Don't know if Pharrell is performing though.

 

[Manmademan]

More from her:







I wonder if the surge in hispanic voting, Latino Decisions thinks 2 million more latinos will vote this election, is causing people to confuse it with a decrease in black turnout.

For instance, and these numbers are being made up and not accurate by me, if last election it was 70% white non-hispanic, 15% black, 10% hispanic, 5% other and this year it's 67% white, 13% black, 13% hispanic, 7% other, this doesn't mean AA vote is down. It just means they make up a smaller portion of the electorate because more non-white (not hispanic) and non-black people are voting too.

I'm not arguing AA vote isn't going to be down, it probably will be because Obama isn't there. But it also might be overstated because the influx of new latino and other ethnicities might be making it seem worse than it really is.

I was arguing this pages ago. The AIF estimate that had blacks at 55% of their 2012 levels was probably bullshit.

 

[Abinash117]

Well it seems they got singers going to the important BG states; I pretty confident they got everything figured out in order to win.

 

[Anno]

There's this amazing Somali restaurant on Morse rd. Make sure you try it at least once.

If you mean the one by Cleveland/Morse then yes! I work like 200 feet away from it. Also Dreylse just up the road. There's so much amazing African food around that part of town.

 

[nature boy]

BOOM BABY

Danny Kanner
‏@DannyKanner
Kellyanne Conway says on CNN campaign internals show Trump down 4 in PA.

 

[Y2Kev]

That implies they have good internals. Crap!

 

[Black Mamba]

BOOM BABY

Danny Kanner
‏@DannyKanner
Kellyanne Conway says on CNN campaign internals show Trump down 4 in PA.

Then he's down by more.

 

[mo60]

BOOM BABY

Danny Kanner
‏@DannyKanner
Kellyanne Conway says on CNN campaign internals show Trump down 4 in PA.

There internals must be messed up because a hilary lead of 5 or 6 points nationally will probably lead to a 7%+ lead in PA.

 

[Fladam]

+1 for Queen in Texas. My first vote ever. Felt damn good.

Would've voted twice but I'm in Euless (just outside Arlington).

 

[Elman]

Currently stuck in traffic outside of the Morse Road early voting center in Columbus, OH. Sure seems far more busy today than usual.

The hundreds of yard signs outside of the County Elections office look like a Dark Souls boss arena.

Spoiler

My wife rolled her eyes when I pointed that out

Now I want to check out these delicious Somali restaurants...

 

[Finalizer]

So, rally at UNC:
-Its summer in November, but climate change isn't a thing don't worry guys
-Problem with dem vote is we can't remember whether the election is on the 9th or the 11th
-Obama still best orator. Ross does a fine job too.

 

[Chris R]

Jon Bon Jovi is going to perform in Tampa.

Katy Perry is going to perform in Philly.

Steve Aoki is going to Las Vegas.

Don't know if anyone is going to NC, but they already going in hard in NC.

Trying to suppress the vote in Vegas, SAD!

 

[Revolver]

Wolf brought up Trump calling out Katy Tur today and how she was harassed by the crowd to Kellyanne. She said she's spoken to NBC about Katy, whatever that means, and she gets harassed too by the other side.

 

[BadRNG]

Jon Bon Jovi is going to perform in Tampa.

Confirmation dems living on a prayer in Florida?

Spoiler

I'm sorry

 

[ZealousD]

There internals must be messed up because a hilary lead of 5 or 6 points nationally will probably lead to a 7%+ lead in PA.

Why are we assuming her lead is 5 or 6 points nationally? Is that a number we like or a number we have evidence for?

 

[Anno]

The hundreds of yard signs outside of the County Elections office look like a Dark Souls boss arena.

Spoiler

My wife rolled her eyes when I pointed that out

Now I want to check out these delicious Somali restaurants...

There sure are a ton of them. My favorite today was a truck with a Stein/Portman combo plastered all over it. Which seems like a particularly odd set of candidates to promote.