• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

Status
Not open for further replies.
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
XD3R8.png



INLmhfY.png
Click to expand...

New Hampshire and Nevada? LOL

Should've flipped MI and WI too.

Zyae said:
van9k77.jpg
Click to expand...

...no sooner than I post!
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
eBay Huckster said:
oh, you



this forum doesn't have enough bandwidth to support the size of the "oh, you" i actually want to type
Click to expand...

ryutaro's mama said:
Show your math.
Click to expand...

6JlpN.png


269-269 tie, GOP Congress votes him in.

Guys, I'm not saying it's going to happen or that it's even likely. Nowhere was that sentiment in that statement. Just that it's not impossible at this point. It would require New Hampshire (very unlikely) as well as North Carolina (eh) and Nevada (eh).
 
I

Iolo

Member
Doesn't necessarily mean much, but eye-popping regardless.

Nate Cohn: North Carolina nonwhite early voters who did not vote in 2012:
Clinton 97% Trump 2%
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Trump's path without PA (and thus no Wi, Mi, or Va) is very narrow.

A loss in Fla, NC, or Ohio ends him. If he wins those but loses any 2 other swing states, he loses. And NH is almost certainly a loss for him.

He has to sweep NH, Co, Nevada, Ia.

I just don't see it. Honestly, his BEST possible map is him winning Pa, Ohio, NC, Fla.

He can't lose Ohio and win Pa realistically, so if he loses any of Ohio/NC/Fla he's done. If he loses Pa, he's as close to done as done can be without being done.

edit: Wi and Michigan is NOT going red in a world where Pa stays blue.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Plinko said:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/dR0wR

269-269 tie, GOP Congress votes him in.

Guys, I'm not saying it's going to happen or that it's even likely. Nowhere was that sentiment in that statement. Just that it's not impossible at this point. It would require New Hampshire (very unlikely) as well as North Carolina (eh) and Nevada (eh).
Click to expand...

When your math includes multiple hail marys just to squeak out a win...in some states that have turned into a stronghold of sorts...and requires a Herculean flip with zero ground game...well, I don't know what to say to that.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Iolo said:
Doesn't necessarily mean much, but eye-popping regardless.

Nate Cohn: North Carolina nonwhite early voters who did not vote in 2012:
Clinton 97% Trump 2%
Click to expand...

NC is 22% black and 4% hispanic.

you can just slim that down to "north carolina nonwhite voters" and be just as accurate. 97 to 2 is about where Trump's favorability with black voters is.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Zyae said:
I never said it was likely. I said its possible. Hubris is not what we need right now.
Click to expand...

Hubris, hah. As if anything said here matters. But states don't operate completely independently of each other and Trump is down more in the alternative states to PA. That makes him winning without the state require some sort of....systemic polling error.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Zyae said:
I never said it was likely. I said its possible. Hubris is not what we need right now.
Click to expand...
Pro tip: Hubris on a message board isn't going to do anything. If PA is blue, there is no logical map for Trump. I mean, I can make up something like where he wins California, but it doesn't make it likely or probable.

If PA is gone, MI and WI are gone.

The last time Trump led in a poll of:
CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Question--what is the point of party-leaning polls? Like that Michigan poll yesterday that showed Trump down one. Is the goal to influence voters? To justify him spending time in the state? I don't get it.

ryutaro's mama said:
When your math includes multiple hail marys just to squeak out a win...in some states that have turned into a stronghold of sorts...and requires a Herculean flip with zero ground game...well, I don't know what to say to that.
Click to expand...

You can just read my post where I said it is incredibly unlikely. He CAN win without PA without it being too incredibly crazy. Him winning NC and Nevada is not a "hail mary." New Hampshire may be at this point. That path is nowhere near as crazy as Adam's comparison to him winning California. Not even close.

whyamihere said:
This is bad analysis because we know that he's probably already lost Nevada!
Click to expand...

Do we? I haven't been able to keep up with the Nevada early voting numbers.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Plinko said:
You can just read my post where I said it is incredibly unlikely. He CAN win without PA without it being too incredibly crazy. Him winning NC and Nevada is not a "hail mary." New Hampshire may be at this point. That path is nowhere near as crazy as Adam's comparison to him winning California. Not even close.
Click to expand...

Him winning both New Hampshire and Nevada at this point would be pretty crazy.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
I have to go to Mexico next week. Can we just resolve this so I don't get blocked by a wall on the way back?
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Plinko said:
Nice. How does this traditionally hold into the actual election day? Republicans are more likely to vote on the day of, correct?
Click to expand...

Nevada has a rather large latino population that is notoriously undersampled, iirc. It's not a good look for the Republicans to be fighting back from a large deficit on election day.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Plinko said:
Question--what is the point of party-leaning polls? Like that Michigan poll yesterday that showed Trump down one. Is the goal to influence voters? To justify him spending time in the state? I don't get it.
Click to expand...
Pollsters tend to work in campaigns before they open shops, they gain connections and normally only work for the campaigns and research of their party.

There are bad pollsters everywhere, lot of fish to go around.

As for Michigan, they need to expand their map. It's just way too late and desperate.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Plinko said:
Nice. How does this traditionally hold into the actual election day? Republicans are more likely to vote on the day of, correct?
Click to expand...

Depends on the state. Democrats vote later in Colorado, Republicans vote later in North Carolina, and things stay fairly equal throughout in Nevada, for instance.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom