PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

Status
Not open for further replies.
RustyNails said:
Oppo....dripping?

Thomas C. Theiner‏ @noclador
#Trump's #Soviet contact: ambassador (actually ПГУ Генера́л-лейтена́нт) Yuri Dubinin.
Then @CIA Deputy Director Bob Gates had them tailed.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Of course! It all makes sense now...Trump said all of those horrible, horrible things because of experimental Russian mind control...

Cncyr-cover.jpg
 
B-Dubs said:
Yea, this is nothing if they don't have the tape. Though, we need the tape to end this properly. At this point the only way this should end is in a Trump orgy tape.
Click to expand...
We could finally fact check his debate statement about the size of his...hands.

Cesare Borgia said:
.
Click to expand...
I would so very much like to be wrong here, just hard to believe is all. How often do October surprises get hyped up?

He simply sounds like Wikileaks at his point, even if he really does know something.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
Wilson is a well respected political strategist/consultant/etc. Obviously he has a dog in the race (McMullin) but he's not a bullshit artist. Nor is he the only person expecting things to drop.
Click to expand...

Granted, he is a career strategist, but his dog in this particular race is not a candidate with a chance of winning anything more than six electoral votes, so the stakes aren't as high as if he were backing a leading candidate.

If no major oppo drops, RIck Wilson's role will probably be forgotten, as he isn't directly making claims of specific oppo that would fail to surface. He's keeping it vague enough to distance himself if nothing materializes.
 
CopperPuppy said:
If he's hinting at the same oppo we've been hearing about today, do we have a reason to doubt him?
Click to expand...

Maybe? I think there's something out there. But it's not up to the Clinton camp to release it, especially without good sources. The media (even rags) know not to do that without vetting the stuff thoroughly. So while I think something is there, it all depends on what's provable.

And Cesare actually just posted on this page.
 
minor effort said:
Granted, he is a career strategist, but his dog in this particular race is not a candidate with a chance of winning anything more than six electoral votes, so the stakes aren't as high as if he were backing a leading candidate.

If no major oppo drops, RIck Wilson's role will probably be forgotten, as he isn't directly making claims of specific oppo that would fail to research. He's keeping it vague enough to distance himself if nothing materializes.
Click to expand...

He can just argue that no one could substantiate the oppo.
 
minor effort said:
Granted, he is a career strategist, but his dog in this particular race is not a candidate with a chance of winning anything more than six electoral votes, so the stakes aren't as high as if he were backing a leading candidate.

If no major oppo drops, RIck Wilson's role will probably be forgotten, as he isn't directly making claims of specific oppo that would fail to research. He's keeping it vague enough to distance himself if nothing materializes.
Click to expand...

He should have just taken credit for the last oppo drop and been done with it.
 
Looking at the updates section on 538. A tie in NH made Clintons chance go UP by .2 pts. But adding polls show Clinton down 12 in Utah, and 15 in Texas made her chagnes go DOWN by 1.1 pts.

da wut huh?
 
Veelk said:
So...I've been skimming the thread because it gets too crazy. But it's been a couple days since the whole FBI BS happened and now I see that it's apparently 'Trumpland' over there. And I just want to ask if and how Hillary's numbers have been affected.

And I also want to say that it's ridiculous how many things Hillary has had against here. What other president candidate has had the fucking FBI fighting against them from the inside and playing partisan politics? Like, jesus, the woman has had the whole damn world against her.
Click to expand...

The truth is we're starved for good national polling now. But from what little we've seen and what's been suggested from private or internal pollsters is a modest contraction in the polls pre-Comey and no discernible effect after.

Edit: Besides the fact that everyone should stop fucking micro-analyzing 538, I would hazard a guess that it hurts Clinton when a new poll shows her down in a red state because it decreases the chances of a landslide / blue wave election that may already be figured into her current chances.
 
OmniOne said:
Looking at the updates section on 538. A tie in NH made Clintons chance go UP by .2 pts. But adding polls show Clinton down 12 in Utah, and 15 in Texas made her chagnes go DOWN by 1.1 pts.

da wut huh?
Click to expand...

I'm guessing that Hillary's chances go up if there's proof she can make up for her weakness among white voters in the Northeast and Midwest with white voters in the South and West.

It sort of makes sense?

FUBAR McDangles said:
Does Clinton have any chance at all of winning North Dakota?
Click to expand...

No. Obama came close in 2008, but still lost it by 7 points. South Dakota is actually a bit more reasonable for Hillary. She's strong with Native Americans and won the primary there, twice. That's also why she competitive in Alaska.
 
Posted anecdotal stuff from NH a few days ago. There has definitely been a Trump support surge as of late. We still have quite a few factory workers and ex factory workers in the state. Also lots of military and ex military. Swaths in those groups are definitely supporting Trump. Than there is the chain reaction that causes in families with members backing up each others vote. Thats one thing I didnt fully think about impact wise but is pretty apparent. So many households that were all in with Obama, will have switched to all Trump because the head of house is pro Trump and reinforcing in their houses media wise.

Its going to be close, I think Hillary takes it, but I wouldnt be surprised if the state flips Trump.
 
Angry Grimace said:
He can just argue that no one could substantiate the oppo.
Click to expand...

That's possible.

In any case, by this point in the election it would need to be way bigger than something that needs to be substantiated by multiple factors if it's going to have a critical impact. If whatever's out there isn't concrete and irrefutable evidence, it's not going to have enough time for the public to absorb and process it by Tuesday.

It needs to be videotape, audiotape, something immediately incriminating that people can immediately react to.
 
I don't understand how you can have an election system in 2016 and hope to hold a shred of credibility without an option for early vote.
 
PBY said:
There's no oppo

Its already dropped, makes no sense to hold stuff like this.
Click to expand...

Makes absolute sense to wait to drop the oppo on the Friday before the election. It'll dominate the 24 hour news cycle, it'll be all anyone will be talking about over the weekend, and the opposition will really only have Monday to try and spin it. You think it was coincidence that the Access Hollywood tape dropped on a Friday? If there's any oppo left to drop, it's coming tomorrow.
 
Grief.exe said:
I don't understand how you can have an election system in 2016 and hope to hold a shred of credibility without an option for early vote.
Click to expand...
No idea why Pennsylvania doesn't implement early voting. Seriously sucks having to either go first thing at 7 am, on a lunch break, or after work. Two out of three of those times is insanely busy. Plus last election we had some problems with anti-Obama voter intimidation in my city.
 
hipsterpants said:
Okay, serious question: why does 538 include polls that they haven't even rated? It seems bizarre.
Click to expand...

He thinks that, as long as the polls are "real", it's worth taking them into consideration, no matter how much of a lean they have. It doesn't matter if some of their samples are completely ridiculous (Like the CNN poll from Nevada that couldn't even poll enough hispanics to get a breakdown of their preference between Trump and Hillary), he takes them into account.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented
395 396 397 398 399
20K
1M
PKrockin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
The Technomancer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
393 394 395 396 397
20K
1M
sc0la replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
386 387 388 389 390
19K
2M
Magni replied
Top Bottom