Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
He lost can they get over it.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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He lost can they get over it.
Oppo....dripping?
Thomas C. Theiner‏ @noclador
#Trump's #Soviet contact: ambassador (actually ПГУ Генера́л-лейтена́нтYuri Dubinin.
Then @CIA Deputy Director Bob Gates had them tailed.
Of course! It all makes sense now...Trump said all of those horrible, horrible things because of experimental Russian mind control...
Randolph Freelander
Member
It's going to be Tuesday night, the Florida vote count (still ongoing) will be unsettling, and people will be like "any... minute... now.... oppo... wait for it."
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
So down to 60 on 538
We could finally fact check his debate statement about the size of his...hands.
I would so very much like to be wrong here, just hard to believe is all. How often do October surprises get hyped up?
He simply sounds like Wikileaks at his point, even if he really does know something.
minor effort
Banned
Granted, he is a career strategist, but his dog in this particular race is not a candidate with a chance of winning anything more than six electoral votes, so the stakes aren't as high as if he were backing a leading candidate.
If no major oppo drops, RIck Wilson's role will probably be forgotten, as he isn't directly making claims of specific oppo that would fail to surface. He's keeping it vague enough to distance himself if nothing materializes.
metalslimer
Member
Ziltoidia 9
Member
If there is any saved Oppo that the campaign knows about, it will drop no later than tomorrow. Anything past Sunday is too late.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Cesare and Rick Wilson sweating like Emily Rodgers prior to Switch reveal.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Maybe? I think there's something out there. But it's not up to the Clinton camp to release it, especially without good sources. The media (even rags) know not to do that without vetting the stuff thoroughly. So while I think something is there, it all depends on what's provable.
And Cesare actually just posted on this page.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
He can just argue that no one could substantiate the oppo.
He should have just taken credit for the last oppo drop and been done with it.
finally an objective poll
There was an AZ poll yesterday (or Tuesday?) that had Hillary +1, so yeah, AZ with Trump +1 or +2 might be it.
Unless that oppo is big and actually drops, TX and GA aren't happening (hope I'm wrong, of course).
I want to believe. I don't care if it doesn't change the election at all, i'm fiending for some more drama.
Velcro Fly
Member
the more often i check 538 the more her percentage to win goes down. almost like it is happening on purpose
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
The truth is we're starved for good national polling now. But from what little we've seen and what's been suggested from private or internal pollsters is a modest contraction in the polls pre-Comey and no discernible effect after.
Edit: Besides the fact that everyone should stop fucking micro-analyzing 538, I would hazard a guess that it hurts Clinton when a new poll shows her down in a red state because it decreases the chances of a landslide / blue wave election that may already be figured into her current chances.
FUBAR McDangles
Member
Does Clinton have any chance at all of winning North Dakota?
I'm guessing that Hillary's chances go up if there's proof she can make up for her weakness among white voters in the Northeast and Midwest with white voters in the South and West.
It sort of makes sense?
No. Obama came close in 2008, but still lost it by 7 points. South Dakota is actually a bit more reasonable for Hillary. She's strong with Native Americans and won the primary there, twice. That's also why she competitive in Alaska.
Posted anecdotal stuff from NH a few days ago. There has definitely been a Trump support surge as of late. We still have quite a few factory workers and ex factory workers in the state. Also lots of military and ex military. Swaths in those groups are definitely supporting Trump. Than there is the chain reaction that causes in families with members backing up each others vote. Thats one thing I didnt fully think about impact wise but is pretty apparent. So many households that were all in with Obama, will have switched to all Trump because the head of house is pro Trump and reinforcing in their houses media wise.
Its going to be close, I think Hillary takes it, but I wouldnt be surprised if the state flips Trump.
Its going to be close, I think Hillary takes it, but I wouldnt be surprised if the state flips Trump.
eBay Huckster
Member
Adjusted leader Trump +420
Basileus777
Member
Dave Wasserman is one tight PA poll away from jumping all the way back in on his PA fantasies.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
ClickNate needs clicks
Pennsylvania was called right away in 2008 for Obama, but how long did it take in 2012 for it to be called? I know it was closer.
minor effort
Banned
That's possible.
In any case, by this point in the election it would need to be way bigger than something that needs to be substantiated by multiple factors if it's going to have a critical impact. If whatever's out there isn't concrete and irrefutable evidence, it's not going to have enough time for the public to absorb and process it by Tuesday.
It needs to be videotape, audiotape, something immediately incriminating that people can immediately react to.
metalslimer
Member
Preparation for the....OPPO?!
hipsterpants
Member
Okay, serious question: why does 538 include polls that they haven't even rated? It seems bizarre.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
I don't really see any value in national polling within a month or so of the election.
Atomic Playboy
Member
All numbers must be heard. The algorithm demands it.
nature boy
Member
Could you guys stop using 538?
Use Pollster, Daily Kos Elections or PEC.
jfc
Use Pollster, Daily Kos Elections or PEC.
jfc
Laevateinn
Member
Few things make me as happy as calling Arizona a "swing state".
eBay Huckster
Member
(especially start using Pollster, because unlike 538 it doesn't do any unskewing whatsoever, being an aggregate rather than a wonky model)
Makes absolute sense to wait to drop the oppo on the Friday before the election. It'll dominate the 24 hour news cycle, it'll be all anyone will be talking about over the weekend, and the opposition will really only have Monday to try and spin it. You think it was coincidence that the Access Hollywood tape dropped on a Friday? If there's any oppo left to drop, it's coming tomorrow.
It happens every day in the early morning. I don't even know why my breaking news alert bothers with it still.
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
No idea why Pennsylvania doesn't implement early voting. Seriously sucks having to either go first thing at 7 am, on a lunch break, or after work. Two out of three of those times is insanely busy. Plus last election we had some problems with anti-Obama voter intimidation in my city.
He thinks that, as long as the polls are "real", it's worth taking them into consideration, no matter how much of a lean they have. It doesn't matter if some of their samples are completely ridiculous (Like the CNN poll from Nevada that couldn't even poll enough hispanics to get a breakdown of their preference between Trump and Hillary), he takes them into account.
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