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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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T

TS-08

Member
The Lamonster said:
So I'm just playing around with the electoral map, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like if Clinton can win PA and FL, the rest of the map could pretty much be 'worst case scenario' and she'd still win, eh?
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure that even Trump/his campaign have admitted they can't win without Florida.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Barzul said:
@MagellanStrat poll finds HRC +6 in Colorado, up 44-38 #copolitics
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Seems about right and they are still undercutting Latino voters, methinks (haven't even seen the internals on that poll, but it's obvious that most polls are ignoring a big chunk of Latino voters).

Obama won Colorado in 2012 by about 6 points, for anyone interested, so Hillary looks like she will outperforming him there too.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
B-Dubs said:
He was getting that second home while he was running against her, none of them paid any attention to it then because they didn't care.
Click to expand...

It just happened again but at least this time it was a public comment and not somebody from my neighborhood.

Fuck these people.

5aXKGCJ.png
 
B

BadRNG

Member
More from that guy:
Thomas C. Theiner ‏@noclador 8m8 minutes ago
#Trump's 1987 #SovietUnion invite: issued by #Intourist Hotels, but Седьмое управление prepped his suite and the "fun rooms".
Click to expand...

Thomas C. Theiner ‏@noclador 4m4 minutes ago
As #Trump's 1987 #SovietUnion trip will be news soon, @michaeldweiss' look at #KGB honeytraps/blackmail is... useful https://t.co/7NYR2WILI9
Click to expand...

Alright this is looking like a retread of the story about Trump being blackmailed by the Russians due to an orgy he took part in. This was reported by a "former spy" who was doing research on trump for an nevertrump Republican earlier this week. Other reporters at the time they had heard rumors but that was all it was.

Unless they have hard evidence now this is going no where.
 
H

Hazmat

Member
Rez said:
I just found this thread and don't know what oppo is
Click to expand...

It's short for "opposition research" which means a negative story you found about your opponent that you pull out to hit them with. People here have been waiting for it like the Great Pumpkin since the Access Hollywood/pussy tape.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
So honestly, these NH polls have sort of driven me crazy today. It probably makes sense it was going to be tight (white people) even though the polls up until now had her up by a decent amount until now.

I know that you can trade NV for NH and the same general math applies. I know that she'll probably still win NH. I know the early voting still looks good in NC and FL. But I can't help but feel deflated.

I hate partisans. I hate people that are voting for this man because he has an R next to his name. I hate that people have contorted themselves into pretzels to make sense of their vote which is obviously a terrible a thing for the country.

I don't think he'll win. He still can't break through PA/CO/WI/NV (despite what 538 seems to think based on the CNN poll!). But still. It just feels precarious. You're not my personal therapists and I don't expect you to try to talk me down, because I think I'm generally okay, but I just didn't need this today.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Beer Monkey said:
It just happened again but at least this time it was a public comment and not somebody from my neighborhood.

Fuck these people.

0PIJg05.png
Click to expand...

Lol, I've actually seen that same guy (Tim) on many Facebook post about Bernie and Clinton before. Those people are literally just spending their day posting shit all day on Facebook.
 
T

Trouble

Banned
SG-17 said:
Was oppo this big of a deal in 12 and 08? All I remember from 12 is the 47% stuff.
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In 2012 Obama had already gone through an election in '08 so all they had was some "you didn't immediately call Ben Ghazi a terrorist without evidence". Mitt's a squeaky clean Mormon, so the 47% thing got a ton of play because there was basically nothing else.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
BadRNG said:
More from that guy:




Alright this is looking like a retread of the story about Trump being blackmailed by the Russians due to an orgy he took part in. This was reported by a "former spy" who was doing research on trump for an nevertrump Republican earlier this week. Other reporters at the time they had heard rumors but that was all it was.

Unless they have hard evidence now this is going no where.
Click to expand...

I have absolutely no faith in Rick Wilson and doubt that anymore oppo will drop, BUT, if the Trump orgy was the actual story, holy fuck. That'd be the craziest shit imaginable.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
BadRNG said:
More from that guy:




Alright this is looking like a retread of the story about Trump being blackmailed by the Russians due to an orgy he took part in. This was reported by a "former spy" who was doing research on trump for an nevertrump Republican earlier this week. Other reporters at the time they had heard rumors but that was all it was.

Unless they have hard evidence now this is going no where.
Click to expand...

Yea, this is nothing if they don't have the tape. Though, we need the tape to end this properly. At this point the only way this should end is in a Trump orgy tape.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
whyamihere said:
So honestly, these NH polls have sort of driven me crazy today. It probably makes sense it was going to be tight (white people) even though the polls up until now had her up by a decent amount until now.

I know that you can trade NV for NH and the same general math applies. I know that she'll probably still win NH. I know the early voting still looks good in NC and FL. But I can't help but feel deflated.

I hate partisans. I hate people that are voting for this man because he has an R next to his name. I hate that people have contorted themselves into pretzels to make sense of their vote which is obviously a terrible a thing for the country.

I don't think he'll win. He still can't break through PA/CO/WI/NV (despite what 538 seems to think based on the CNN poll!). But still. It just feels precarious. You're not my personal therapists and I don't expect you to try to talk me down, because I think I'm generally okay, but I just didn't need this today.
Click to expand...

I feel pretty similarly. On other hand, he's still stuck in low 40s. Which means a partisan nonresponse issue could still be at play, which would lead to systemic polling error. :)

Obama did win by 5. His rcp average was +2. Wish we had more polling.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Fragamemnon said:
This is what happens when you have a political party that isn't accountable for its behavior.

North Carolina GOP Leader Pulls Out Handcuffs For Clinton On National TV

I can't stress that one of the biggest crises in American politics is that one political party has made themselves almost immune from public rebuke at the polls.
Click to expand...

We've already had that crazy shit Fiore in NV negotiating for the Bundys in an armed standoff with the Federal government, twice!

The nuts own the GOP levers of power, anf their voters are ok with that. The question is when and where an organized cell tries to reenact Ft. Sumter, and what the reaction will be when a gaggle of elected officials get hauled to Federal prison for it.
 
B

Barzul

Member
Anyone watching CNN? Jake Tapper just owned this Trump campaign official on Trump's problems with women. Basically stunned him to silence. It was beautiful, he couldn't even mount a defense. Just 5-7 seconds of silence then it cut to ads.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Yea, this is nothing if they don't have the tape. Though, we need the tape to end this properly. At this point the only way this should end is in a Trump orgy tape.
Click to expand...

The unfortunate thing about Donald Trump is, an orgy sex tape would only make him stronger somehow.

"Betraying your country? That's orgy room talk."
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
minor effort said:
Rick Wilson has been throwing out enough vague hints about explosive oppo being out there that it looks like possible attempt on his part to ride the wave if something does surface. I've lost faith he has knowledge of anything himself, he's teased it a little too much for the past few months.

If he was right, he might earn some accolades. If not, he'll just go back to being forgotten in the public eye after this election.
Click to expand...

Wilson is a well respected political strategist/consultant/etc. Obviously he has a dog in the race (McMullin) but he's not a bullshit artist. Nor is he the only person expecting things to drop.

"If something existed it would have come out by now" is not a good argument. Most (good) October surprises come out right before an election so the opposing campaign has no time to effectively react. My problem with that here...Trump always makes things worse by doubling down. He extends negative stories for days or weeks, meaning it makes sense to hit him early. But that's just my opinion.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
BadRNG said:
More from that guy:




Alright this is looking like a retread of the story about Trump being blackmailed by the Russians due to an orgy he took part in. This was reported by a "former spy" who was doing research on trump for an nevertrump Republican earlier this week. Other reporters at the time they had heard rumors but that was all it was.

Unless they have hard evidence now this is going no where.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I mean, how do you even prove that enough for it to be picked up by mainstream media?

Anyway, in other news, Bret Baier from Fox just took back the whole "likely" Clinton indictment thing, after it got too many conservatives and anti-Hillary folks hyped-up, lol.

But on Thursday, Baier said that his characterization of the news was simply not true.

“I want to be clear — I want to be clear about this,” he explained. “I pressed the sources again and again what would happen [if Hillary Clinton wins]. I got to the end of that and said, ‘They have a lot of evidence that would likely lead to an indictment.’”
Click to expand...

He goes on to say that "the process" isn't like that and bla bla bla. Thi is like the Wikileaks infomercial all over again.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
whyamihere said:
So honestly, these NH polls have sort of driven me crazy today. It probably makes sense it was going to be tight (white people) even though the polls up until now had her up by a decent amount until now.

I know that you can trade NV for NH and the same general math applies. I know that she'll probably still win NH. I know the early voting still looks good in NC and FL. But I can't help but feel deflated.

I hate partisans. I hate people that are voting for this man because he has an R next to his name. I hate that people have contorted themselves into pretzels to make sense of their vote which is obviously a terrible a thing for the country.

I don't think he'll win. He still can't break through PA/CO/WI/NV (despite what 538 seems to think based on the CNN poll!). But still. It just feels precarious. You're not my personal therapists and I don't expect you to try to talk me down, because I think I'm generally okay, but I just didn't need this today.
Click to expand...
Look at the aggregates. Clinton up 7 on Pollster.
 
M

mo60

Member
thepotatoman said:
That Florida poll of 32% of republicans voting Clinton is still making me wonder about demographics by Party ID. I know that 32% maybe too much too hope for, but can we really expect Republicans to back Trump at the exact same numbers they backed Romney? That seems really hard to believe for me, given how this election has gone, with many prominent members of the party talking about how dangerous it is to vote for him.

Most of this close polling doesn't seem to really show there to be anything different from 2012 outside of a bit higher third party numbers and bit lower Dem turnout percentage, and it just doesn't make sense.

If 6% of them were able to vote for Obama in 2012, you'd think it'd be pretty easy to find at least 12% of republican voters that are worried about Trump's lack of temperament and experience being commander in chief, or women that are downright appalled by his sexism.
Click to expand...
No. Trump will end up getting somewhere in the high 70's to mid 80's for republican support,
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Eric's the dumb one, so not surprising that he'd say something like that.

Trump Jr. is a war criminal in training though-dude is pure evil.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Donald Trump’s supporters were not the only ones cheering when FBI Director James Comey last week revealed the agency was reviewing new emails related to Hillary Clinton.

Bernie Sanders’ write-in hopefuls celebrated as well. They want him to win enough states to deny Clinton the 270 electoral votes for the presidency, and then take the White House by congressional action. It’s a long shot.
Click to expand...

Yes, you read that right, CONGRESS will elect Bernie. These people are either complete morons or being paid to do this by some right-wing organization.
 
V

Veelk

Banned
So...I've been skimming the thread because it gets too crazy. But it's been a couple days since the whole FBI BS happened and now I see that it's apparently 'Trumpland' over there. And I just want to ask if and how Hillary's numbers have been affected.

And I also want to say that it's ridiculous how many things Hillary has had against here. What other president candidate has had the fucking FBI fighting against them from the inside and playing partisan politics? Like, jesus, the woman has had the whole damn world against her.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
I thought you guys meant opposite lock! I was expecting Hillary to swoop in with a sweet drift, do a couple donuts around Trump's campaign bus and drive off whistling "Ohio." Shit, this thread takes on a completely different meaning now.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
Veelk said:
So...I've been skimming the thread because it gets too crazy. But it's been a couple days since the whole FBI BS happened and now I see that it's apparently 'Trumpland' over there. And I just want to ask if and how Hillary's numbers have been affected.

And I also want to say that it's ridiculous how many things Hillary has had against here. What other president candidate has had the fucking FBI fighting against them from the inside and playing partisan politics? Like, jesus, the woman has had the whole damn world against her.
Click to expand...
Little to no evidence showing Comey had any effect on national polling.
 
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