Support NeoGAF

[Bam Bam Baklava]

How is this talk any different than right wingers talking about the whitey tape? Yeah there was access hollywood but we don't even know if that was just the work of someone at NBC.

 

[Fragamemnon]

9:48pm EST

http://www.ap.org/Content/Press-Release/2012/AP-calls-the-presidential-race-state-by-state

just reading how long it takes to get results. Ugh anxiety supreme :/

 

[MetalGearZed]

Could you guys stop using 538?

Use Pollster, Daily Kos Elections or PEC.

jfc

ahhh kos. or some say, kosm.

 

[ZealousD]

Could you guys stop using 538?

Use Pollster, Daily Kos Elections or PEC.

jfc

Yeah! We don't like the numbers coming out of 538. That must mean they're wrong or something. Pick the models that give Clinton the highest odds. That's how we know they're correct.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

How is this talk any different than right wingers talking about the whitey tape? Yeah there was access hollywood but we don't even know if that was just the work of someone at NBC.

It might not be different!

Cesare has 28 hours.....

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

How is this talk any different than right wingers talking about the whitey tape? Yeah there was access hollywood but we don't even know if that was just the work of someone at NBC.

I'd say less preposterous while still being equally pointless and silly

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Makes absolute sense to wait to drop the oppo on the Friday before the election. It'll dominate the 24 hour news cycle, it'll be all anyone will be talking about over the weekend, and the opposition will really only have Monday to try and spin it. You think it was coincidence that the Access Hollywood tape dropped on a Friday? If there's any oppo left to drop, it's coming tomorrow.

It dropped on a Friday because the source gave it to NBC earlier in the week and was frustrated they didn't run it (because they were trying to cover their own tails). The source sent it to Washington Post and they cleared it and ran it within a few hours.

At least, that's the way I remember hearing it.

 

[BSsBrolly]

just reading how long it takes to get results. Ugh anxiety supreme :/

That is what alcohol is for!

 

[eBay Huckster]

Pick the models that actually have their methodology published (PEC), are not actually models (Pollster), or were the most accurate in 2012 by a mile (DKE).

FTFY

 

[nature boy]

Yeah! We don't like the numbers coming out of 538. That must mean they're wrong or something. Pick the models that give Clinton the highest odds. That's how we know they're correct.

Not all of us are worthy of statespoll.com, sry

 

[jtb]

here is a legitimate criticism of fivethirtyeight: they're getting completely lapped in the data journalism department.

 

[Fragamemnon]

What's the latest counts in FLA and NV early voting?

Still positive news?

NV is ridiculously good news. I don't know why it's not more newsworthy that Trump is, barring some kind of miracle, a goner there before election day even starts.

FL is weird-turnout is super high BUT Republicans are flogging their voters to get to early voting this year with emphasis and vigor they haven't done before. This is because the state GOP and little marco's campaign aren't run by idiots, unlike Trump's ground game. So total EV totals are higher, but it's in some part due to more Republicans voting early that voted earlier on election day.

(Seeing this in NC as well)

That being said the real early voting story out of FL and NC is unaffiliated voters, which are through the roof and will decide both states.

 

[metalslimer]

How is this talk any different than right wingers talking about the whitey tape? Yeah there was access hollywood but we don't even know if that was just the work of someone at NBC.

Because Trump is a legitimately horrific person that likely has something else on him The only question is whether he was recorded or there is a lot of evidence for it.

That being said, someone shouldn't put there emotional well being on some mysterious oppo dropping and giving democrats the house.

 

[Basileus777]

Yeah! We don't like the numbers coming out of 538. That must mean they're wrong or something. Pick the models that give Clinton the highest odds. That's how we know they're correct.

This shitty strawman is getting pretty tiresome.

 

[Afrodium]

The election is in 5 days. If someone is sitting on explosive oppo now is the time to use it. If it's something truly damaging his numbers won't magically shoot up on the 8th because the oppo was used one day too early.

Spoiler

Please someone release something now 538 is killing me

 

[wumster3000]

Could you guys stop using 538?

Use Pollster, Daily Kos Elections or PEC.

jfc

Why not use 538? There is logic for their dramatic shift right?

 

[gaugebozo]

ahhh kos. or some say, kosm.

As you once did for the vacuous Scarborough, grant us oppo, grant us oppo. Plant oppo on our brains, to cleanse our beastly idiocy.

 

[Grexeno]

Why not use 538? There is logic for their dramatic shift right?

Trendz

 

[Fragamemnon]

That is what alcohol is for!

Can't look at it. One of the side effects of losing a parent to a drunk driver.

Just going to hit the pavement for Ross. Maybe I'll find the five or ten people in Durham county that have yet to vote.

 

[gutter_trash]

I'm so afraid for tomorrow, Fridays have been lethal during this campaign season

 

[Shotterke]

Quick question from an european. How should we view the early voters numbers? I'm having an argument on a different forum with some Trump/Bernie supporters and they say you have to ignore early voting results because a lot of people are not registered with the party they are going to vote for.

So does a 45/35 split mean that 35% off all the votes were for the GOP nominee or just that 35% of the voters were registered as a republican?

 

[PBY]

Could you guys stop using 538?

Use Pollster, Daily Kos Elections or PEC.

jfc

Why? 538 has a defensible methodology, why not use all of the sources? I hate the idea of insulating oneself in this way.

 

[BSsBrolly]

Can't look at it. One of the side effects of losing a parent to a drunk driver.

Just going to hit the pavement for Ross. Maybe I'll find the five or ten people in Durham county that have yet to vote.

Fuck, I'm sorry.

 

[Basileus777]

Why? 538 has a defensible methodology, why not use all of the sources? I hate the idea of insulating oneself in this way.

He's responding to the people in this thread following 538 and losing their cool over every odd swing.

 

[Melkezadek]

Haven't been following the elections since I casted my early vote a week ago, but what's going in here? Before it seemed like a Clinton victory but things have changed? I'm not getting any accurate impression from anywhere really. Should we be shitting ourselves?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

WSJ polls:

AZ: Trump+5
GA: Trump+1
TX: Trump+9

... These polls don't make sense together, but I guess they're fine?

Trump is somehow only +4 in RVs in Texas?

 

[Laevateinn]

Quick question from an european. How should we view the early voters numbers? I'm having an argument on a different forum with some Trump/Bernie supporters and they say you have to ignore early voting results because a lot of people are not registered with the party they are going to vote for.

So does a 45/35 split mean that 35% off all the votes were for the GOP nominee or just that 35% of the voters were registered as a republican?

In a lot of Southern states, you will find people who have registered as Democrats but haven't voted for one since Carter. Outside of the southern states (not counting Florida as southern), I think you will find that people registered to a party will typically vote for that party's nominee with a certain predictable level of dropoff. You can go beyond just party registration and look at other demographic factors too. Are the voters a minority? What is their age? What level of education or income do they have? And so on.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

NBC Marist just dropped three state polls. They have Georgia a near tossup but Trump ahead in AZ, which seems to be the opposite of the Clinton campaign:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of GA
Trump 45
Clinton 44
Johnson 8
(Stein not on ballot)

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of AZ
Trump 45
Clinton 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of TX
Trump 49
Clinton 40
Johnson 6
Stein 2

(But it's Trump +4 among RVs)

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics

 

[Barzul]

WSJ polls:

AZ: Trump+5
GA: Trump+1
TX: Trump+9

... These polls don't make sense together, but I guess they're fine?

GA is closer than AZ? Based Atlanta. Send Obama there imo.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

WSJ polls:

AZ: Trump+5
GA: Trump+1
TX: Trump+9

... These polls don't make sense together, but I guess they're fine?

I would really like Hillary to win either Arizona or Georgia for the bragging rights, so these polls dampen that excitement.

 

[SparkleMotion]

When is Trump going to sue the New York Times for running that one story?

 

[nature boy]

Why? 538 has a defensible methodology, why not use all of the sources? I hate the idea of insulating oneself in this way.

He's responding to the people in this thread following 538 and losing their cool over every odd swing.

This.

+ plus I never hear folks talking about Daily Kos (most accurate in 2012 AND 2014), maybe I need to shitpost, dunno

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

GA is closer than AZ? Based Atlanta. Send Obama there imo.

Yeah, that's a great idea. Don't send him to NH or PA, send him on a wild goose chase to Georgia.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Quick question from an european. How should we view the early voters numbers? I'm having an argument on a different forum with some Trump/Bernie supporters and they say you have to ignore early voting results because a lot of people are not registered with the party they are going to vote for.

So does a 45/35 split mean that 35% off all the votes were for the GOP nominee or just that 35% of the voters were registered as a republican?

We "only" know demographics and party affiliations but we can make very educated extrapolations from them.

 

[StopMakingSense]

So does a 45/35 split mean that 35% off all the votes were for the GOP nominee or just that 35% of the voters were registered as a republican?

Registered.

 

[Kaiterra]

When is Trump going to sue the New York Times for running that one story?

When he gets around to the other 600-something lawsuit threats he has yet to follow up on

 

[Plinko]

Yeah, that's a great idea. Don't send him to NH or PA, send him on a wild goose chase to Georgia.

Yeah, the PA/NH trip seems much more useful, to be honest.

 

[banefirelord]

Haven't been following the elections since I casted my early vote a week ago, but what's going in here? Before it seemed like a Clinton victory but things have changed? I'm not getting any accurate impression from anywhere really. Should we be shitting ourselves?

No. Polls are tightening somewhat but early voting is strongly trending Hillary. Trump has virtually no reasonable paths to electoral victory. If you want to shit yourself, shit yourself about the Senate which is much more dicey.

 

[Joeytj]

NBC Marist just dropped three state polls. They have Georgia a new tossup but Trump ahead in AZ, which seems to be the opposite of the Clinton campaign:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of GA
Trump 45
Clinton 44
Johnson 8
(Stein not on ballot)

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of AZ
Trump 45
Clinton 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of TX
Trump 49
Clinton 40
Johnson 6
Stein 2

(But it's Trump +4 among RVs)

Consistent with other polls ignoring latinos. The fact that GA is that close means college-whites and AA are going big for Hillary. Hope Arizona goes our way!

Also, looks like third parties gained a bit following the Comey letter, but let's hope they go back to Hillary at the end of the day. The early voting in the West seems to point in that direction.

EDIT: Harry Enten is also noticing that registered unaffiliated voters are going to Clinton, according to both polls and early voting. Hopium levels going up.

@ForecasterEnten 28m28 minutes ago
What you'll notice about Magellan in CO, as @nate_cohn found in FL/NC/PA, is that Clinton wins REGISTERED unaffiliated voters. (1/?)

 

[johnny956]

I live in a college town in a county that is 100% going for Trump/Pence yet I've seen maybe one Trump sign in total. I imagine that the townies are worried that hooligan college students will tear them down (which probably actually happened, fwiw).

Instead some real-estate people (I assume it's them, I have no idea if that's the right term) have put down like 1000 Greitens signs in front of a strip mall near campus and an empty plot of land across from my apartment. It's really bizarre.

Now I'm trying to figure out what town in Missouri your talking about? Can't be Columbia because they lean democrat along with KC and St. Louis. Springfield or some smaller college town I'm not thinking about?

Edit: Rolla?

 

[Barzul]

Yeah, that's a great idea. Don't send him to NH or PA, send him on a wild goose chase to Georgia.

I mean including those states. He's already going to NH and PA on the day before election. There's 5 days....I think it's doable.

 

[metalslimer]

Kind of shocked if GA is that much closer than AZ. I would love to take either one though. The TX dream is dead though.

 

[excelsiorlef]

WSJ polls:

AZ: Trump+5
GA: Trump+1
TX: Trump+9

... These polls don't make sense together, but I guess they're fine?

Trump is somehow only +4 in RVs in Texas?

How is GA closer than Arizona. ... weird

 

[HylianTom]

Yeah, the PA/NH trip seems much more useful, to be honest.

I think, at this point, that almost all surrogate appearances should take place within states that have Senate races that are up-for-grabs. So while Georgia or Arizona might be fun to think about, winning those PA/NH Senate races would be so very consequential..

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Kind of shocked if GA is that much closer than AZ. I would love to take either one though. The TX dream is dead though.

He's only +4 in RVs which is way closer than it should be.

 

[Officerrob]

The Clinton campaign spending time in AZ and not GA tells you all you need to know about those polls

 

[Barzul]

He's only +4 in RVs which is way closer than it should be.

She should be losing by 15-20 points in TX I'd think

 

[A Link to the Past]

Serious question, but the likelihood of any real oppo happening against Trump is nearly zero at this point, right?

 

[hipsterpants]

Now I'm trying to figure out what town in Missouri your talking about? Can't be Columbia because they lean democrat along with KC and St. Louis. Springfield or some smaller college town I'm not thinking about?

Edit: Rolla?

I go to Truman State. Well, for only like another month and half!

 

[jiggle]

I kinda want to just be surprised(or not) by texas result without polls
The Virginia of 2016