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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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Manmademan
Member
If Democrats don't control the house she won't be able to do much of anything.
If you don't think the GOP is going to quadruple down on obstruction knowing that democrats are going to lose seats in 2018, I don't know what else to tell you.
Correct. It was much more about being uninformed/ignorant of who he was than loathing.
Good point. I'm a 78'er and while I could qualify as millenial by some definitions, the student debt thing seems like it started spiraling out of control maybe 5-7 years after I had already graduated.
It depends on how things shake out after the election. Everything is still very fluid right now. The GOP may fracture with a Breitbart (Explicitly Fascist, Nationalist, Authoritarian, Bigoted) wing and a Delusional (We Pretend that "Principled Conservatism policy is different from the Breitbart party) wing. Or maybe they'll have another "autopsy" where they claim an outreach to Latinos is necessary. Either way, Democrats can leverage their need for new image branding by saying "immigration reform is your opportunity."
Not saying it will be easy or even likely, but if Dems are savvy enough, it can happen. Just be prepared for lots of concessions that can be aggravating to a progressive caucus (like the ACA was) even if they are ultimately supporting of it.
Well, yeah, I agree, but I'm assuming she manages to get something done haha.
TumblingHippo
Member
I know this isn't the right answer, and probably won't be it for me, but this year just makes me want to stop paying attention to politics ever again and just move on.
What would you personally gain going from seeing and knowing what they're doing to being able to use their matlab script? I don't see why it has to be open source. Unless we're starting to argue they're lying I don't understand. You can already download spreadsheets with their poll data and the results of the model.
A model almost by definition cannot be unbiased. Adding numbers together and averaging barely qualifies as a model and isn't as useful. If you don't try and actively correct for consistent, predictable and easily identifiable biases in individuals polls you're not doing a good job.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I'm '77 too and the thing is, we weren't really considered Gen X when the term was coined (Doug Coupland's novel). The heart of Gen X graduated college into the Bush I recession when we were young teenagers, and had their ennui badly chronicled in, say, Reality Bites. We graduated into the dot-com boom. It's a half-step but a pretty clear one, culturally. We kind of got subsumed into Gen X as Millennials become a more clearly defined thing.
But see, endorsing and voting aren't the same thing, see!
He broke my brain a little when he said he's essentially voting for a potential sex offender by framing it that he doesn't want a different potential sex offender back in office.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Let's say that the Supreme Court rules on a case, and that ruling leads to a non-partisan redistricting committee, as opposed to one party having control over redistricting. Will that make a huge dent in the GOP's control of the House?
AntraxSuicide
Banned
This point is a pet peeve of mine. Junk info is not only not helpful, but actively harms accuracy! See: Silver using a Google survey of 73 people for a DC poll awhile back. That poll is literally as useful as the Scholastic Kids' poll!
If I release 20 backyard polls that all have Clinton +40, you shouldn't include these! But I would bet that Silver would.
And I notice you aren't here beating the drum for RCP. Could it be that due to its poor input, you've decided to ignore it?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I would if I could, but I know how much this will effect us all whether I pay attention or not. That's the sad reality. This election has to be one of the ugliest demonstrations of democracy we have had in a long time.
Sad thing is he'll never be able to look his daughter in the face again. Not sure how he plans to manage that.
You are giving him too much credit. He has absolutely no shame or sense of guilt.
eBay Huckster
Member
(One more thing: I've actually been consistent in the transparency critique of 538 all year long, this isn't just some random bugaboo I have now that the race seems to be tightening again.)
Well, for one, I could begin to figure out if anything's objectively superfluous in that model vs PEC's using the statistical tools that are available to me.
Neat! Knew that already! If it turns out that you're adding biases to your model, and that this isn't actually making the model any more accurate than a model that is not adding those biases, then you've just made your model worse.
I mean, the only aggregation named on the last page to which this applies isn't actually a model, so.
Wang and Linzer do not try and actively correct for bias in individual polls to nearly the degree that's found in the FiveThirtyEight models, yet they've consistently performed on par or beyond Silver's model in terms of accuracy.
Somehow, I don't think the adjustments are as important as they're touted to be.
Well, for one, I could begin to figure out if anything's objectively superfluous in that model vs PEC's using the statistical tools that are available to me.
Neat! Knew that already! If it turns out that you're adding biases to your model, and that this isn't actually making the model any more accurate than a model that is not adding those biases, then you've just made your model worse.
I mean, the only aggregation named on the last page to which this applies isn't actually a model, so.
Wang and Linzer do not try and actively correct for bias in individual polls to nearly the degree that's found in the FiveThirtyEight models, yet they've consistently performed on par or beyond Silver's model in terms of accuracy.
Somehow, I don't think the adjustments are as important as they're touted to be.
whyamihere
Banned
Well I doubled my Lexapro dose and now I'm certain we'll win the White House and Senate.
cartoon_soldier
Member
good good
Basileus777
Member
Yes, but I can't see what constitutional basis the Supreme Court would have to take that authority away from state legislatures.
whyamihere
Banned
ooooooooh
EDIT: goddammit i'm sad again
EDIT: goddammit i'm sad again
I don't see the GOP even thinking of going for DAPA and DACA. They already hate those.
For the record, on the post you did the FTFY-thing, I was responding to another poster who said we should discount 538.
PoliGAF is getting nervous about the undecided trend towards Trump and that's reflected in all the talk about the methodology of the aggregators and predictors. Even if PoliGAF doesn't want to admit that. My fear is that much of this talk about "outliers" and "clickbait" is really not that far removed from crazy Trump fans who talk about the media's skewed polls and who jump up in down all happy whenever there is some poll that shows a positive result for their preferred candidate. We all like information that confirms our previous biases. Conservatives, Liberals, and alt-right nutbags alike. This is a human failing. Not a right-wing failing.
Why?
Basileus777
Member
I'd wager good money that a similar situation is playing out in NC.
whyamihere
Banned
BECAUSE I WAS BEATEN
eBay Huckster
Member
Also for the record, I kind of discount every single thing nature boy types that isn't a proper noun so I kinda forgot he was doing that.
good good
Isn't this a bad thing? Or am I misreading something?
Nah, I feel you. Back in '96, the first year I could vote for president, I voted for Dole. I think he would've made a fine president even still, and I'm not embarrassed to say that I voted for him. That's why his support of Trump is so baffling to me (although he hates Cruz).
To be honest, I was pretty much a moderate until relatively recently. Even in 2008, even though I very strongly supported Obama, I would've been OK with McCain. That is, until he picked Sarah Palin. That kind of changed everything. Her whole "palling around with terrorists" nonsense really, really, bothered me, and then the whole rise of the Tea Party after that... Well, it pretty much guaranteed that I'm never voting for another Republican, even for dog catcher, ever again.
And this year has just ratcheted that up to an even worse level. Just the most vile, obscene things coming out of the GOP, even when you exclude the stuff by Trump. It makes you cynical, and the hope for a sane, David Frum-type Republican seems so far, far away.
People who used to be registered dems that were voting R for years are finally properly affiliated with the party
Basileus777
Member
No, it means a lot of that Republican early vote are voters that voted Republican but showed up as Democratic turnout in past elections.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
Yeah Kinda confused.
metalslimer
Member
It means that dem are doing even better in Florida than we thought compared to 2012 because many of those dems probably voted for Romney
whyamihere
Banned
No, this is a good thing.
How can you not do that using the explanation of their model? It seems like you believe not being able to identify these obvious flaws is due to not enough information and not simply a lack of obvious flaws.
Like any model the results will tell the story. Hard to look at past elections and conclude the 538 model is out to lunch. Let's see where it ends up this time around and then look at the vote counts.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It means these new Rep voters are old Dem voters that had already always voted Rep, so the Reps aren't really gaining as many new votes as increased Rep turnout would imply.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's good, it suggests GOP numbers are a bit inflated compared to 2012.
Like many in the South a lot of people who were still registered Democratic had been voting straight ticket Republican for years, so even if it made it look like more Rs were getting out and voting it wouldn't affect the bottom line much.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible politician.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/03/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-27/
Dixiecrats are finally declaring themselves Republicans now that the GOP nominated George Wallace.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/03/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-27/
Dixiecrats are finally declaring themselves Republicans now that the GOP nominated George Wallace.
StopMakingSense
Member
This is part of the 'Trump turned out new primary voters, not new presidential election voters' thing.
Very good sign, we're outperforming our outperforming.
Very good sign, we're outperforming our outperforming.
The uptick in GOP EV isn't new Rs, it's Ds who have (mostly) always voted GOP. If I'm reading that right.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Why doesn't May call for an election soon instead of waiting for the possibility of a recession due to Brexit uncertainty?
So these formerly registered democrats registered republican to vote in the primary, even though they have been voting republican in the general elections for years?
Edit - hopefully this post isn't coming across as snark (it kind of reads that way to me now). I'm genuinely asking as I want to make sure I understand those tweets.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes.
adamsappel
Member
Voted early in Maryland today. Line was long but moved swiftly and efficiently. +1 Clinton.
Manmademan
Member
its simple. We don't know HOW people vote (that's confidential) but we do know the party.
The south is notorious for having a lot of older voters that registered as democrats a long time ago in the 60s and 70s, but have been voting republican for years. West virginia is FILTHY with these.
50,000 of the early votes that the GOP has this year were registered as democrats last year. They had likely been registered democratic, but voting republican every year- switching this year to vote for Trump in the primary.
So there is no real net gain there for the GOP, those were just votes that looked like they were democratic every year but weren't.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump brought back the overwhelmingly blatant racism that the Dixiecrats were missing and that they really wanted to see in the general election.
My plan is to run errands in the early morning and then hibernate until about an hour before polls on the East Coast close.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I should smoke some meth on Tuesday, but I don't do drugs
balladofwindfishes
Member
My Wednesday time off was approved so I can stay up to the wee hours of the morning watching history unfold.
It seemed pointless to take off Tuesday instead of Wednesday.
It seemed pointless to take off Tuesday instead of Wednesday.
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