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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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TestOfTide
Banned
If you are in a swing state, you have to understand that the refusals aren't necessarily because they are voting for Trump, but are more likely just people who are sick of getting 3 million calls per day from pollsters and political organizations.
Yeah, going independent seem like the hot new thing for young first-time registrants.
StopMakingSense
Member
Man, I wish CA weed was legal already. This fucking election is so in my head.
(LAT has it up 20 points!)
(LAT has it up 20 points!)
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
D..d...did someone say oppo?
Black Mamba
Member
No, we won't. That's the problem with these models. If the 538 model ends up 60-40 Clinton, but Clinton wins easily in a blowout like we thought 2 weeks ago when the model was 90-10, there will be no conclusive proof that the 538 model was wrong.
Nate Silver might post an article explaining why is model is wrong furthering to demonstrate he doesn't actually understand the math application he uses, but it won't mean anything.
If Nate's model shows it close but it ends up not close, it could be the model failed or it could be a result of systemic polling failure (in the opposite way) or something else. WE CAN'T KNOW BECAUSE IT WILL BE ONLY ONE DATA POINT!
That said, I'm fairly certain the 538 model is wrong. And not just in 2016 but also in 2012. But in 2012 it was lucky that its flaws couldn't be exposed.
I'm thinking about writing a long post tomorrow explaining why the 538 model is wrong now and has always been wrong and why it didn't seem wrong in 2012. If I feel like it, I will.
But for a quick preview, I'm going to say that a lot of it has to do with a lack of polling, a lack of good polling, and to much interrelationship (and also too many variables being used).
StopMakingSense
Member
That's always kinda been a thing for first timers.
I think I've seen it like 500 times today. Time for a new word?
lyrick
Member
Fetch
whyamihere
Banned
That's probably true.
Atomic Playboy
Member
So they've got Trump on video with two prostitutes... are they trying to make him more popular? I hate to generalize, but let me just guess as to his base's response to this:
The abortion thing is huge for the evangelical vote, but unless they have him on video bragging about it, there's too much plausible deniability and too little time before election day to prove it.
Anyway, I maintain none of it exists if we haven't seen it by now. Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yes, so you should probably expect no oppo.
Nothing will come of this but that would be incredible.
The prostitute one could link to the Russian honeypot angle, if they are the ones that took the tape, but yeah neither go with Rick Wilson's claim the oppo is jail/exile worthy.
The @noclador guy talking about Russian story has been going on past couple hours; been listing business ties Trump had to Russians as well as repeating the story about the Alfabank shadyness that Slate reported on.
All this still comes down to ironclad proof or it won't stick. If it's just some women coming forward claiming they were paid to sleep with him or have abortions, it probably won't do much.
Don't Breathe should be coming out on VOD on the 8th, so I'll probably pick that up on either Amazon or the Play store and will watch it once the sun sets.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Media: "Abortion payments go back to three days ago"
Every Republican voter: "Yeah but he prayed to God"
We can certainly compare state by state. The national number is too vague to be useful but 50 individual results are a good dataset. It won't tell us everything conclusively but it should be obvious if their are systemic, fundamental flaws with that level of data.
RustyNails
Member
Well it does. The Soviet link is that they have Kompromat on Trump, which could be him with 2 prostitutes/secret orgy tape.
Yeah the abortion stuff, while deplorable, wont move the needle. It fits into everyone's views of Trump. The Soviet story is a bombshell if true.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Spent almost 20 years as an Indy, because I could vote in either Primary in CO. When I moved back to FL I never bothered because of the calls, mailers and emails you get as a partisan in such a swingy state.
That'll change after this election because I want the FL GOP to know that they're so fucked up that they've overcome my tendency to be left alone with their absolute fuckery.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
*pulls speculation out of ass*
The prostitute one could be Russian blackmail footage.
My thoughts exactly. This is much more damning to Trump than any "N-Word" soundbite; he's already losing African Americans by record numbers and I can't imagine there's many white folks left who haven't made peace with his blatant racism. But this? This would strike straight into the heart of the evangelicals.
The problem is, that heart is already so corrupted that I can't see this having any effect. They've been so willing to look the other way on so much morally objectionable behavior like his multiple marriages (remember that it was the sheer audacity of Nelson Rockefeller to get divorced and remarried that caused the huge rift that lead to religious right goons like Schlafly backing Barry Goldwater) that I can't imagine even this would turn them. They're so committed that to seizing power that they don't care how much they have to ignore or how two-faced it makes them look.
Yep.
How did they end up on Trump's laptop
So, Sam Wang retweeted a polarization graph.
Here's the tweet with a gif: https://twitter.com/alec_h_tyson/status/793872116735180801
And here's the in depth article for those that want to read: http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
Also, I still BELIEVE in a 2008 level gap.
Here's the tweet with a gif: https://twitter.com/alec_h_tyson/status/793872116735180801
And here's the in depth article for those that want to read: http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
Also, I still BELIEVE in a 2008 level gap.
TheCochese
Banned
I share these thoughts. Even if both are true, and both drop tomorrow, I don't see it moving the needle. Not unless the prostitutes were under age, and even then the base will hand-waive it. Not unless they are like 12, which actually might be in his wheelhouse.
It's about turnout suppression not changing minds.
It's also not real.
It's out tommorow afternoon or it doesn't exist.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
Holy shit.
No it doesn't. We're 4 days out and people are voting already.
They don't have anything. I really think all the oppo talk is just false hope.
If true, that second oppo will decimate GOP turn out. Completely spits in the face of everything the religious right has stood for since Reagan. There's literally no spinning that, and any Republican that maintains their support for him is toast.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I think there's a difference though between the left* and the right. We won't run with something we can't prove and fill the internet with dank Trump attack memes.
*-I know that the far left isn't above it.
Black Mamba
Member
I don't know if this has been mentioned but the ABC-WAPo tracker poll has the while electorate at 75%, non-white 25%.
Fairly certain this is wrong. Even the CPS would have it at 74%, probably 72-73% was the truth in 2012.
You'd imagine it would drop this year with the amount of latinos coming in.
Fairly certain this is wrong. Even the CPS would have it at 74%, probably 72-73% was the truth in 2012.
You'd imagine it would drop this year with the amount of latinos coming in.
"We're not electing a pastor. We're electing a president."
I think in the context of this election and in the context of what actually moves votes or suppresses turnout, the moderate GOP that is coming home needs to see something ironclad or they will equivocate.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
If you say oppo in reverse it comes true: oppo.
StopMakingSense
Member
What if tomorrow doesn't exist. And instead we relive today over and over, in a constant flux state of waiting for tomorrow's oppo?
OPPO IS A PALENDROME!
(oh god I will die if someone gets this reference)
Aaron Strife
Banned
"But Hillary's emails, and I don't like her voice"
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Again, it makes zero sense to drop Oppo this late after millions of early votes have already been cast. Every day is another lost batch of early voters you could have converted.
The only way it makes sense is if it was newly discovered. But if that was true there wouldn't have been weeks/months of teasing about it. The "couldn't corroborate" argument sounds like a perfect excuse to backtrack after nothing comes out of completely unjustified speculation/teasing.
"Trust me guys, the oppo was real, it's just my super secret sources from Canada were too scared to go on the record."
The only way it makes sense is if it was newly discovered. But if that was true there wouldn't have been weeks/months of teasing about it. The "couldn't corroborate" argument sounds like a perfect excuse to backtrack after nothing comes out of completely unjustified speculation/teasing.
"Trust me guys, the oppo was real, it's just my super secret sources from Canada were too scared to go on the record."
Black Mamba
Member
It still won't. There will not be enough data points. You'd need to look at 100 general elections with the model, not 2 or 3.
The individual states won't be enough because his model does not allow each state to be an independent data point.
And again, Nate's model might say 60-40 Clinton, but it also gives a percentage on the likelihood of a Clinton blowout. Maybe it's only 10% but we would have absolutely no way of knowing if the blowout, should it happen, simply fell in that 10% or was the result of a bad model.
TheCochese
Banned
I'm not sure it would even suppress the vote all that much. They've made excuses for absolutely everything he's done to this point, why stop now?
I used to be pretty conservative. I still remember some of these justifications.
This is what I think too but maybe the argument could be made that early voters would be the most enthusiastic and resistant to change in the first place, plus already have a Democraft lean on top of that.
"Jesus forgives."
excelsiorlef
Member
Misreading.
The folks who switched this year still early voted GOP in 2012 they just did so as registered Dems instead of officially GOP
Thought I'd drop this in for fun.
Three Norwegian thirdgraders weigh in on their views on the election and the candidates.
It's automatic translated so some of the words and sentences will be weirdly constructed and sound strange. But hey we have been listening to Trump speak for more than a year now so we should be used to it.
https://translate.google.com/transl...74/?expId=df-86-d4401edc&varId=df-86-uad2a1ab
Three Norwegian thirdgraders weigh in on their views on the election and the candidates.
It's automatic translated so some of the words and sentences will be weirdly constructed and sound strange. But hey we have been listening to Trump speak for more than a year now so we should be used to it.
https://translate.google.com/transl...74/?expId=df-86-d4401edc&varId=df-86-uad2a1ab
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