Ok I'm not sure if you meant it that way and my apologies if you didn't but are you really bringing back the "minorities just didn't know him" nonsense from the primaries? If so, do people still not understand how insulting that is? Why were allegedly white people able to figure him out and no one else? We had as much information about him as any other primary voter. At the end of the day, his language/rhetoric, policy positions and surrogate operation just didn't appeal to most minorities. That's the bottom line.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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Ok I'm not sure if you meant it that way and my apologies if you didn't but are you really bringing back the "minorities just didn't know him" nonsense from the primaries? If so, do people still not understand how insulting that is? Why were allegedly white people able to figure him out and no one else? We had as much information about him as any other primary voter. At the end of the day, his language/rhetoric, policy positions and surrogate operation just didn't appeal to most minorities. That's the bottom line.
I should smoke some meth on Tuesday, but I don't do drugs
No time like the present!
Be straight edge, all the kids are doing it!
Why not both?
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Like, 538 is still currently predicting a Clinton win with the highest single chance of ~330 EVs, but I suppose it's fun(?) to argue about the relative probabilities of a single future event that is really either 100% or 0% depending on how pre-deterministic you feel
It will be Voter Fraud,exit polls, Black panther mentions and other things.
eBay Huckster
Member
More to my point, I don't know if the model's flaws could be correctable. Having the math laid out in front of me in plaintext might help that! (Of course the flaws might not be obvious - that's the point of conducting an [independent] analysis.)
Yeah, at the end of the day, we'll just have to wait and see - though it'd be nice if I could suss out whether some of the things in the cake are or aren't adding much.
Depends on how strong you want your drink to be at the error bar, eh? Eh?
balladofwindfishes
Member
There's no point. It would just be a wasted day home. Work will at least make the day move quickly.
Basileus777
Member
Why does it never feel like comments like these are addressing the actual content of posts made in these threads?
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible politician.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/03/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-27/
Goddamn it I come in here for Oppo worship and mindless panic and now you remind me that my country is the fucked one. Not cool bruh.
I'm not beating the drum for anybody. I'm not even beating the drum for 538. I am not ignoring RCP. But this is kind of a sidetrack because 538 and RCP aren't even trying to do the same thing. 538 is a prediction model and RCP reflects the current mood of the electorate.
metalslimer
Member
There are a lot of people especially in the south who were Democrats only because there family were Democrats. Needless to say party identity has shifted quite a bit. It's why west Virginia Democrats are so conservative.
Fragamemnon
Member
This would actually explain a lot. I'll see if the NC crunchers can validate.
If the numbers show Latino shifts accelerating in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and North Carolina; the GOP Reps in those states in a lot of districts will be forced to play ball.
They need those votes to stay in power, and its only going to become a bigger issue every cycle they wait.
I can see them breaking ranks.
eBay Huckster
Member
In fairness, that comment is actually addressing my posts to some degree.
Basileus777
Member
The south was a Democratic stronghold for generations. When voting patterns shifted and those states trended Republican, many voters never bothered to change their party registrations. A lot of them changed party registration this year so they could vote in the Republican primary.
Maybe I was unfair there, I'm just a bit tired of complaints that Poligaf hates anything that says things they don't want to hear.
Nice, I'll share too. At the risk of tempting fate, while I'm very confident in Hillary winning, I managed to get Tuesday and Wednesday off next week. Gonna use Wednes. to celebrate should she do so!
Right, and I understand that. Just wanted to make sure I understood what is the reason behind the switch. It seems like it would be motivation to ensure a Trump win in the primary, as I assume Florida requires you to register for the party whose primary you are going to vote in. But we are assuming these voters would have voted for him in the general anyway, not that they are "true" Democrats who have decided to vote for Trump.
Manmademan
Member
RCP reflects the current mood of RCP, if anything.
newshinycd
Member
Couldn't the party affiliation switching in NC and FL be from people switching to vote in the GOP primary?
I mean, it was obvious who was going to win the Dem primary, so it would have been a wasted primary vote.
I mean, it was obvious who was going to win the Dem primary, so it would have been a wasted primary vote.
But that's assuming the conclusion that the 538 model is less accurate in this election. We'll understand much better in like 5 days.
Basileus777
Member
Ohio may be the bigger instance of this as a number of Dems changed registration to vote Kasich.
nature boy
Member
Speculation on what the oppo is, part 2:
https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated
The guy's bio: Veteran of three presidential campaigns, served on White House staff (Clinton). Now travel photographer. Tweeting from an art festival near you.
https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated
The guy's bio: Veteran of three presidential campaigns, served on White House staff (Clinton). Now travel photographer. Tweeting from an art festival near you.
He basically got a lot of D's who have voted R for the last 3 decades to switch their registration to vote for him in the primary.
Manmademan
Member
yes, that's exactly it.
The parties actually used to be in opposite positions. the republican party was the progressive, abolitionist movement, the democratic party was full of racist southerners who would NEVER EVER vote republican because of lincoln and the civil war.
The realignment around the civil rights act of 1964 changed this. northern democrats and republicans largely backed that bill, southern democrats and republicans opposed it. (this is an oversimplification, but go with it).
"southern democrat" politicians split briefly into their own (extremely racist) party, then eventually joined with southern republicans to make a "new" highly racist republican party.
This all took place at the elected official level, mostly. It took the rank and file a little while longer to catch on- so there were for decades after that STILL a lot of southern "democrats" who were still registered as such, but voted reliably republican every year. Since most people don't vote in primaries, there's no real need to go through the trouble to change that registration- unless there is a competitive primary race which doesn't happen all that often.
Extraordinary oppo require extraordinary droppo.
whyamihere
Banned
oh boy
balladofwindfishes
Member
Oh hey, an abortion tape
Let's test how righteous the religious right is
Let's test how righteous the religious right is
Well that's new.
This seems like rumor mill stuff. I mean, based on internet conjecture I knew these two rumors are out there.
If they are real and they drop then so be it.
StopMakingSense
Member
NC is semi-open.
I doubt there was a significant amount of D switching to disrupt the FL vote.
Please let Christmas come early.
Wiz
Member
DROPPO DA OPPO!
In other words, the Democrats that are showing up to vote are more reliable Clinton votes vs. years prior where they were Republican-voting Dixiecrats.
newshinycd
Member
Wisdom teeth removal isn't as bad as people make it out to be. I had two removed at the same time over the summer. I was a bit sore, but no pain.
At the end of November I go in for jaw surgery. BSSO and Lefort 1. I do not look forward to eating through a straw.
Enjoy the Vicodin.
Manmademan
Member
if those are accurate I can see how media might be reluctant to release either without a LOT of ironclad evidence.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Peeps sometimes don't realize FL had closed primaries, so NPA can't vote in either GOP/DEM and only registered GOP/DEM can vote in their respective primaries.
Makes sense that a hotly contested primary would cause them to re-register accordingly.
Cesare is this true??
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Am i wrong in being extremely skeptical that multiple news agencies would sit on a huge story about a presidential nominee because they want to make sure its legit?
Not to disrupt, but to back Trump because these were *always* Trump voters who were registered D because of the old guard of racist southern democrats.
They never changed their party affiliation, but have been voting Republican for decades. Then Trump gave them a reason to change their registration
Basileus777
Member
You say this as someone who has clearly never gotten dry socket.
StopMakingSense
Member
Right. Did you see what I replied to? He was referring to Ds switching to influence the GOP vote.
The NY Rags would have dropped it already. Or the British ones.
Look, we all want to dropping the oppo. Andd tommorow is the day it happens or not. But I don't see how this is true.
I mean, it's probably things he has done before. But I doubt this is out there.
whyamihere
Banned
For NC, a lot of it is Dixiecrats dying. Same was with FL until this year.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
I mean this is the kind of story that gets you in a shitton of trouble if it's not airtight; but it does sound like a Democratic fantasy.
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