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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
I agree with some of the other posters, i just dont see how this rumored oppo would hurt him when he came back from bragging about sexual assault on tape, and has a dozen women claiming he sexually assaulted/harassed/raped them.

The christians that have morals werent voting for him anyways, the people voting for him will defend literally anything he does. With that being said.......it sure wouldnt help him either......so....DROP THE OPPO!
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Brawndo Addict said:
Again, it makes zero sense to drop Oppo this late after millions of early votes have already been cast. Every day is another lost batch of early voters you could have converted.

The only way it makes sense is if it was newly discovered. But if that was true there wouldn't have been weeks/months of teasing about it. The "couldn't corroborate" argument sounds like a perfect excuse to backtrack after nothing comes out of completely unjustified speculation/teasing.

"Trust me guys, the oppo was real, it's just my super secret sources from Canada were too scared to go on the record."
Click to expand...

Counterpoint would be that Republicans are the ones who traditionally vote on election day. It would be about suppressing their vote.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Retro said:
My thoughts exactly. This is much more damning to Trump than any "N-Word" soundbite; he's already losing African Americans by record numbers and I can't imagine there's many white folks left who haven't made peace with his blatant racism. But this? This would strike straight into the heart of the evangelicals.

The problem is, that heart is already so corrupted that I can't see this having any effect. They've been so willing to look the other way on so much morally objectionable behavior like his multiple marriages (remember that it was the sheer audacity of Nelson Rockefeller to get divorced and remarried that caused the huge rift that lead to religious right goons like Schlafly backing Barry Goldwater) that I can't imagine even this would turn them. They're so committed that to seizing power that they don't care how much they have to ignore or how two-faced it makes them look.
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Evangelicals have created a reality that holds Clinton as being (literally) a demon, that anyone carrying the GOP banner can be flawed in profound ways, but their association eith God's Own Party means their failures are waved away as human foibles in the mold of David.
 
P

PBY

Banned
ArkhamFantasy said:
I agree with some of the other posters, i just dont see how this rumored oppo would hurt him when he came back from bragging about sexual assault on tape, and has a dozen women claiming he sexually assaulted/harassed/raped them.

The christians that have morals werent voting for him anyways, the people voting for him will defend literally anything he does.
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If it's what the rumor is, it will hurt him.

But it's not gonna drop.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
The religious right has already done mental gymnastics to forgive Trump for his moral shortcomings. Some have gone far enough to claim he's born again. I don't see how hookers and abortions from his past hurts him. The deplorables won't give a fuck either
 
R

Retro

Member
Gotta say though, prostitutes and abortions barely even raise an eyebrow here. It seems so much like something Trump would do on a regular basis. I mean, look at the way he lives, hell, the way he furnishes an apartment. The illusion of wealth is everything to him, there was no way in hell he wasn't dick-deep into this shit in the 80s when that sort of lifestyle was celebrated. Outside of Gordon Gekko, is there anyone who represents that sort of wealthy 80's sleaze like Trump?

I'm just picturing Trump going to all sorts of weird coke parties where people fucked animals or whatever because, why not, you're rich and high as fuck. Hookers, blow and abortions are probably the least messed up things he got into.

It's a shame that the democrats don't get to vaguely suggest shit and have the media run with it for three days straight though.
 
S

Syncytia

Member
Fenderputty said:
The religious right has already done mental gymnastics to forgive Trump for his moral shortcomings. Some have gone far enough to claim he's born again. I don't see how hookers and abortions from his past hurts him. The deplorables won't give a fuck either
Click to expand...

If something comes out and it's just someone saying something it will go nowhere. I'm hoping for anything so the media can just STFU about emails.
 
B

BadRNG

Member
Plinko said:
I still laugh when I hear people say, "We need real proof or it won't do anything!!!"

Have you met the average American voter? Have you seen what these people pass around on Facebook?
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People believe things that reinforce their beliefs without evidence, sure. But if this oppo dump's point is to depress GOP turnout or switch an undecided, you definitely will need hard evidence. We have Trump on tape bragging about sexual assault and a ton of people still don't think he would ever do that, and that all the women who have come forth are lying.

If it's not ironclad it won't hurt him much, just like the newest e-mail innuendo didn't really hurt Hillary (based off all the polls/insider reports we've seen regarding it anyway).
 
T

thebloo

Member
Manmademan said:
why.
Click to expand...

Pressure. Odds are good, the price of losing is high. But we'll all breathe a sigh of relief on Tuesday. Trust!

hillary.gif
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Fenderputty said:
The religious right has already done mental gymnastics to forgive Trump for his moral shortcomings. Some have gone far enough to claim he's born again. I don't see how hookers and abortions from his past hurts him. The deplorables won't give a fuck either
Click to expand...

Jesus preaches forgiveness.

Not for Hillary though.

I swear I've heard Kayleigh make that argument on CNN.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
PBY said:
Well...

He is gonna win lol


But it's not bed wetting about the lack of oppo, that's just common sense. Twitter rabbit holes and rumor mills...? Nah, I'll believe it when it drops, the timing doesn't make sense.
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I can't see how that happens at all.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Kevinroc said:
I am much too apprehensive about this election. I wish I could have the confidence some of you guys have.
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Think about it like this. Hillary's camp basically knows how election day/night will play out. They know where they need to allocate resources this weekend, and where they came throw a hail mary (Arizona, apparently). She has a world class GOTV machine. Even if something magically went wrong, the firewall in PA ensures she'd still become president.

Trump will be going into Tuesday virtually blind, with less information than Romney had in 2012. He's operating as if it's 2008 and republicans still thought "data? models? LOL." This is why he's running around Michigan and Virginia despite the fact that he won't come close to winning either state.
 
N

nature boy

Member
I'm guessing protistutes and abortions is "family ending" stuff, as Cesare suggested a while back?

Damnit Cesare, give us a hint. Warm ou freezing?
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
ArkhamFantasy said:
Am i wrong in being extremely skeptical that multiple news agencies would sit on a huge story about a presidential nominee because they want to make sure its legit?
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No

All oppo discussion is bullshit. If there are stories that break they will break and no one is predicting them.

Waste of energy to act otherwise
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Atomic Playboy said:
So they've got Trump on video with two prostitutes... are they trying to make him more popular? I hate to generalize, but let me just guess as to his base's response to this:

820.jpeg
Click to expand...

oAOoPmN.jpg


But seriously, only the abortion thing could have a noteable impact IMO.

Whoever would run it is gonna get sued, period, so they'd definitely have to be diligent on the legal front first.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
PBY said:
Literally every poll has him up?
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Polling isn't accurate for florida this year, due to the insane amount of immigration that happened between 2010 and 2016, mostly coming from puerto rico.

early%20voting_zpsw64iqytg.png


As of monday, there were about 1.8 million additional votes in the primary over 2012, many of which had never voted in a primary before.

what do you think that does to polling models, which rely on likely voters?
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
Black Mamba said:
It still won't. There will not be enough data points. You'd need to look at 100 general elections with the model, not 2 or 3.

The individual states won't be enough because his model does not allow each state to be an independent data point.

And again, Nate's model might say 60-40 Clinton, but it also gives a percentage on the likelihood of a Clinton blowout. Maybe it's only 10% but we would have absolutely no way of knowing if the blowout, should it happen, simply fell in that 10% or was the result of a bad model.
Click to expand...

I don't really think that's true at all. The statistical interdependency between states is a feature of the model so I don't see why that makes it harder to compare individual state predictions with results. They don't have to be independent to be useful for determining accuracy.

If the results of an election can't be used to judge an election model, how do you use results to refine the model?
 
P

PBY

Banned
Manmademan said:
Polling isn't accurate for florida this year, due to the insane amount of immigration that happened between 2010 and 2016, mostly coming from puerto rico.

early%20voting_zpsw64iqytg.png


As of monday, there were about 1.8 million additional votes in the primary over 2012, many of which had never voted in a primary before.

what do you think that does to polling models?
Click to expand...
Murphy isn't winning man.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
KHarvey16 said:
I don't really think that's true at all. The statistical interdependency between states is a feature of the model so I don't see why that makes it harder to compare individual state predictions with results. They don't have to be independent to be useful for determining accuracy.

If the results of an election can't be used to judge an election model, how do you use results to refine the model?
Click to expand...

you can't. That's the point. At least in terms of the overall stuff. You can go into the weeds and make smart, educated guesses as to what to tweak, but that's it.

I will ask you again. If the model gives Clinton a 10% chance of a blowout while showing a close race and the result is a blowout, how do you know if it was a failure of the model or simply landed in the 10% range?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
I think Nate is both more weary because of his shitty primary punditry and also because there's a lot more undecided voters. What's good is that we have multiple models with different ways of looking at this race.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Oh man, Deplorables have invaded this bar in Asheville. Talking about voter fraud and how Chicago celebrated the world series by having a bunch of 'coloreds' shoot each other. And they have a Hillary nutcracker that they shot with a mortor.

Never thought I'd want to be back in Texas for political reasons.
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
Guys, it's okay. If Patrick Murphy can't make this a competitive race against Marco f'n Rubio, what does this say about his abilities as a candidate?
 
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