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[IrishNinja]

Explain to me how a Nazi is getting over 44% of the vote when there's a white, Christian, heavily pro military Methodist running for president that was slow on the roll to adopt gay marriage, favors military intervention in countries, is pro oil, does not want to raise taxes on the lower, middle, and even upper-middle classes.

we're gonna pretend decades of GOP witchhunts & her being am ambitious female don't factor in at all here, eh

 

[Fragamemnon]

Explain to me how a Nazi is getting over 44% of the vote when there's a white, Christian, heavily pro military Methodist running for president that was slow on the roll to adopt gay marriage, favors military intervention in countries, is pro oil, does not want to raise taxes on the lower, middle, and even upper-middle classes.

because partisan affiliation is a hell of a drug.

 

[whyamihere]

McGinty yes. Ross not sure.

My prediction for the Senate is now hold NV + gain WI, IL, PA, hopefully NC/MO/NH. One of those three. I think this is best case but we might fall short and have 49. Eek

Last non-shitty polls are:

Hassan +3
Ayotte +2
Hassan +1
Hassan +13
Ayotte +6
Hassan +2

I mean, I'm fairly confident in a Hassan win.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

That's an insane number. No matter what happens Tuesday the Dems are leaving it all on the field.

I'm really hoping that:

• Polls tightening
• Democrats freaking out / activating
• Dem's massive GOTV
• Trump's lack of GOTV

combine for one of the biggest polling upsets (in Clinton's favor) in US history. Fuck Trump and Republicans.

 

[User 463088]

Daddy Mook also thinks they are up about 170k votes in Florida. Obama went into election day with a 84k vote lead, I believe.

 

[streetsahead123]

Lol this Spirit Cooking thing is ridiculous

They scoff at us for tying Trump to Russia, but here they are trying to tie Clinton to Satan

 

[excelsiorlef]

There was a 3-4 point polling error in the aggregate in 2012 tho

In favor of the guy with the superior GOTV amd ground game and led in most polls.

 

[Particle Physicist]

Now we know the FBI has been leaking info to journalists, but can't campaign officials be compelled to reveal who leaked the info?

Because that seems highly illegal

It really does, it almost seems like they are colluding considering Gulliani stated that Trump had a few aces up his sleeve when talking about what the FBI was going to do. Nothing will ever happen though

 

[Randolph Freelander]

That's an insane number. No matter what happens Tuesday the Dems are leaving it all on the field.

One thing you can say about Clinton, she tries her absolute hardest.

All on the field. 110%.

 

[whyamihere]

@RalstonReports
More than 9,000 had voted by 11 AM in Clark County today. That's 50 percent higher than at same time Thursday. Last day usually biggest.

WEEEEE

 

[Teggy]

hoo boy

 

[Fragamemnon]

Daddy Mook also thinks they are up about 170k votes in Florida. Obama went into election day with a 84k vote lead, I believe.

geez. it'll be called at 8:30 if true. It won't take long to see from early voting counts how fast Trump runs out of voters in the places he would need to catch up.

also mook is absolutely killing it as campaign chief

 

[Maxim726X]

So... What are the chances that the dems take FLA?

Early voting still promising?

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Daddy Mook also thinks they are up about 170k votes in Florida. Obama went into election day with a 84k vote lead, I believe.

Straight partisan split is +1800 Dem, so thats good

 

[banefirelord]

hoo boy

I want to watch the TV show set in the Lovecraftian dystopia that the alt-right seems to live in.

 

[BadRNG]

They scoff at us for tying Trump to Russia, but here they are trying to tie Clinton to Satan

It's ridiculous they would go to these lengths, we already have a picture of them together.

I can smell the sulfur from here!

 

[Diablos]

Last non-shitty polls are:

Hassan +3
Ayotte +2
Hassan +1
Hassan +13
Ayotte +6
Hassan +2

I mean, I'm fairly confident in a Hassan win.

Yes. But we can't discredit 4 polls in a row that have things looking meh.

Also I'm never thought about Trump's odds being only one sampling error away to victory. Trying not to think about that.

 

[mo60]

So... What are the chances that the dems take FLA?

Early voting still promising?

High. They may win the state by more than Obama did in 08 if they continue to do well in early voting,

 

[Iolo]

I'm really hoping that:

• Polls tightening
• Democrats freaking out / activating
• Dem's massive GOTV
• Trump's lack of GOTV

combine for one of the biggest polling upsets (in Clinton's favor) in US history. Fuck Trump and Republicans.

A different opinion, from YouGov guy, who says that EV dem leads and tight polling may not conflict:

IF Trump has zero org but lots of reliable GOP supporters, you might EXPECT on-the-day vote to be especially big for him

Possible, but this seems like an odd interpretation. With zero org, the most reliable supporters (who tend to vote early) will vote anyway, but less reliable supporters may not be as likely to vote. It already seems that Dems are turning out more lower propensity voters, so it is not clear why this would suddenly change on election day.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Explain to me how a Nazi is getting over 44% of the vote when there's a white, Christian, heavily pro military Methodist from a middle class family running for president that was slow on the roll to adopt gay marriage, favors military intervention in countries, is pro oil, does not want to raise taxes on the lower, middle, and even upper-middle classes, and was the first lady of ARKANSAS. And said Nazi is from New York, is extremely wealthy, assaults women, can't even name parts of the bible or the constitution, has never read a book in his life, was born rich... it doesn't make sense.

Think about that. Maybe it's not the Nazi that's the mistake, here.

Remember 'Obamacare is Socialism'?

Take that and multiply the socialism fearmongering by a factor of 1 million if Bernie was the nominee.

Besides, this election is over and Clinton will get over 300 EVs. What's the problem.

 

[User 463088]

So... What are the chances that the dems take FLA?

Early voting still promising?

I mean, we can't know for certain...but it's looking pretty damn good. We'll be at 70% total votes cast by Sunday. If Daddy Mook is correct, we'll have a 170k or so lead. Obama had a 84k vote lead going into election day and he won by 64k, I believe. Hispanic and NPA turn out is fucking INSANE, and AA turnout has now exceeded 2012 as well. The white share of the electorate continues to trend down, and we're holding a gender gap of about 10% (54% of the early voters have been women).

So, I'd rather be us than them. But, you know, nothing is decided yet.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I truly believe Sanders would have been labeled SOCIALIST in so many ads it would have destroyed him. Just ads with him saying "I'm a democratic socialist" would have gotten him fucked with independents.

I say that but Trump's campaign/business possibly having ties to Russia does nothing to some people so who knows, really.

I honestly find it hard to say what's worse to the general public: a candidate being labeled a criminal or a socialist, even with former being untrue.

 

[GhaleonEB]

hoo boy

I don't read Drudge, has he always been this psychotic? I remember his "all the polls are wrong" meltdown from 2012.

A quick google on the 94m labor force thing reveals what epic horseshit it is.

 

[User 463088]

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I mean, we can't know for certain...but it's looking pretty damn good. We'll be at 70% total votes cast by Sunday. If Daddy Mook is correct, we'll have a 170k or so lead. Obama had a 84k vote lead going into election day and he won by 64k, I believe. Hispanic and NPA turn out is fucking INSANE, and AA turnout has now exceeded 2012 as well. The white share of the electorate continues to trend down, and we're holding a gender gap of about 10% (54% of the early voters have been women).

So, I'd rather be us than them. But, you know, nothing is decided yet.

Schale is expecting a 65-66% White portion of the vote by Election Day. Anything under 70% bodes really well for Clinton.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

A different opinion, from YouGov guy, who says that EV dem leads and tight polling may not conflict:.

I don't think they necessarily conflict, yeah. I'm more hopeful that the GOTV has a 1 - 2% point effect against Trump though.

 

[Slayven]

Bye Felicia

 

[TheFatOne]

People continue to miss the biggest issue with a hypothetical Sanders run against Trump. Jeff fucking Weaver would have been running his campaign. Let that sink in a bit. This is the same fucking guy who thought that the strategy of completely ignoring the southern states during the primaries was an acceptable strategy to win. He's fucking clueless.

Edit: Also according to many Clinton is the worst Democratic nominee in history. What does that tell you about Sanders since he couldn't beat the worst nominee ever

 

[Iolo]

I think Mook said Asian EV turnout was up 90% over 2012.

 

[Killerhertz]

I honestly find it hard to say what's worse to the general public: a candidate being labeled a criminal or a socialist, even with former being untrue.

Everyone relates socialist to communist because of cold war so it is worse than being labeled a criminal. That being said Russia is being run by an ex-KGB agent who the Republican nominee is in love with..... so maybe it could of been a wash in public perception, but I doubt it.

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

I honestly find it hard to say what's worse to the general public: a candidate being labeled a criminal or a socialist, even with former being untrue.

Socialist does not carry a stigma in the Dem primaries. It absolutely does for general election voters 40 and older.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I think Mook said Asian EV turnout was up 90% over 2012.

Registered Muslims are above 1mil at this point, so I would assume that bodes well for MI, at least at the margins

 

[SexyFish]

Dr. Darrell Scott on a roll baby.

Dr.Darrell Scott Verified account
‏@PastorDScott
I wonder if Hillary and Podesta pour Hot Sauce in their spirit cooking?

 

[BadRNG]

.

Republicans hate Clinton, and Rappers are corrupting our youth, it really is the 90s again.

Spoiler

someone get Hillary to brush some dirt off her shoulder at the concert

 

[whyamihere]

Yes. But we can't discredit 4 polls in a row that have things looking meh.

I'm not talking about the top of the ticket. I'm talking specifically about Hassan and Ayotte, which is what you asked about.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

So in the last hour on 538...

First an unchanged tracker (Clinton +5), a Kansas poll, an Indiana poll and a landline-only NH poll knocked Clinton down 2%...

Then a Utah poll knocked her down 1.3%

Guess Silver decided she was climbing too much

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I don't know what he takes him as...
Or understand the intelligence that Jay Z has...

 

[Grief.exe]

Clearly Podesta was planning on meeting with Putin to debate pupet status of Hillary.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I have the biggest smile reading about all of these minority populations turning out in record numbers.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

LOL

Clinton campaign says to stop refreshing 538. Her camp definately reads PoliGaf

Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight
Trump’s odds of winning have spiked this week: Per Nate Silver’s latest forecast, he now has a 1-in-3 shot of beating us on Tuesday. If that number stresses you out, here’s what you can do: Chip in.

 

[perfectchaos007]

So in the last hour on 538...

First an unchanged tracker (Clinton +5), a Kansas poll, an Indiana poll and a landline-only NH poll knocked Clinton down 2%...

Then a Utah poll knocked her down 1.3%

Guess Silver decided she was climbing too much

Why are you guys still believing Silver is personally tampering with his formula? It is what it is, and he's not tampering with it to get more clicks

 

[nature boy]

Josh MarshallVerified account
‏@joshtpm
Numbers we're seeing today starting to look like Hispanic Americans are going to be the ones to deport Donald Trump.

Heh

 

[Iolo]

So in the last hour on 538...

First an unchanged tracker (Clinton +5), a Kansas poll, an Indiana poll and a landline-only NH poll knocked Clinton down 2%...

Then a Utah poll knocked her down 1.3%

Guess Silver decided she was climbing too much

Don't worry about it. If he's wrong, you want him to be spectacularly wrong. If he's right, he'll be the smuggest mf on the planet.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Why are you guys still believing Silver is personally tampering with his formula? It is what it is, and he's not tampering with it to get more clicks

We know, it's almost entirely tongue-in-cheek when we post stuff like this. Doesn't make the movement any less absurd.

 

[PlayALLtheGames]

So I just realized that these paid Russian troll accounts on Facebook are extremely easy to identify. Their profiles all say they speak Russian, Spanish, French and Portuguese. You'd think someone would have realized it's an obvious giveaway.

 

[BiggNife]

I don't understand why a single Utah poll dropped Hillary's chances by a percent

She was never going to win Utah!

 

[BadRNG]

I have the biggest smile reading about all of these minority populations turning out in record numbers.

Speaking of, this posted yet?

daniel a. smith
‏@electionsmith

Hispanic EIP voting in Florida is off the charts...429k have voted in person, up 152% at this time in 2012

#TrumpEffect

Hispanics helping stump the Trump is pure karma.

 

[GurgleBot20]

"Urban"

 

[Grief.exe]

LOL

Clinton campaign says to stop refreshing 538. Her camp definately reads PoliGaf

Best way to motivate dems and independents is a impending Trump presidency.

Clinton Campaign is playing 6D dimensional chess. Comey letter helps Clinton Campaign immensely, Republicans were always going to come home to vote for whatever piece of shit on the ballot. Nothing motives dems like said piece of shit having a chance.
Hello African Americans and Millennials 👌👌👌

 

[Randolph Freelander]

LOL

Clinton campaign says to stop refreshing 538. Her camp definately reads PoliGaf

Posted while a C+ poll in Utah dropped her percentage 1.3 points and flipped NC and FL to red.

538's model wets the bed worse than any of us.